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2019 Draft Discussion


jleisher

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1 minute ago, rcon14 said:

Oliver can play everything from 0-tech to wide-9 and drop into coverage and I'm pretty sure he's perfect.

As an athlete, I agree. JaireAlex mentioned some knocks against his character.  If he does drop to us, I'd take that chance.  

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Just now, vegas492 said:

As an athlete, I agree. JaireAlex mentioned some knocks against his character.  If he does drop to us, I'd take that chance.  

I have yet to see anything regarding his character aside from a "team jacket" thing. Or because he maybe didn't play in a game when he maybe could have, or maybe he wanted to play even though he was still hurt and the coaches held him out. If the issue is "stopped playing because of the draft" Nick Bosa did the exact same thing and no one talks about it.

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23 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

If we're not counting 2018, which I wouldn't, the last 1st round miss at TE has been Brandon Pettigrew, in 2009. This depends on how you view Ebron, who was finally a ++ player this past year. 

Howard
Engram
Njoku
Ebron
Eifert
Gresham

Pettigrew
Dustin Keller
Olsen
Vernon Davis

Marcedes
Heath Miller
Kellen Winslow
Ben Watson

These are the 1st round tight ends taken in the last 15 drafts, excluding 2018. That is imo an extremely high hit %. Only 3 of them were taken in the top 10 - Winslow, Vernon Davis, and Ebron. The next highest was 19 OJ Howard

I'd argue Kellen Winslow was a reasonably successful pick.  Did well on his rookie deal on a pretty bad team.

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7 minutes ago, cannondale said:
24 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

If we're not counting 2018, which I wouldn't, the last 1st round miss at TE has been Brandon Pettigrew, in 2009. This depends on how you view Ebron, who was finally a ++ player this past year. 

Howard
Engram
Njoku
Ebron
Eifert
Gresham

Pettigrew
Dustin Keller
Olsen
Vernon Davis

Marcedes
Heath Miller
Kellen Winslow
Ben Watson

These are the 1st round tight ends taken in the last 15 drafts, excluding 2018. That is imo an extremely high hit %. Only 3 of them were taken in the top 10 - Winslow, Vernon Davis, and Ebron. The next highest was 19 OJ Howard

For discussion sake - and because I have the link open, here are a few non- First Rounders

3rd - Cook

3rd - Graham

4th - Hernandez

2nd - Gronkowski

4th - Cameron

2nd - Rudolph

3rd - Kelce

2nd - Ertz

5th - Kittle

The difference here is that I posted every 1st rounder, you only posted the really good ones. There are a ton of missed guys from the 2nd round onwards, just like every other position. Like you said it's not as drastic of a drop off as edge or QB, but there is a noticeable drop off

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1 minute ago, skibrett15 said:

I'd argue Kellen Winslow was a reasonably successful pick.  Did well on his rookie deal on a pretty bad team.

Me too, but at 6 overall you're really looking for a long term franchise player. 

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11 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

College and all that, but he was being triple-teamed regularly in college and still was disruptive.

For sure. But with his stature in the NFL I think that's a waste of his strengths, and I'm sure you agree. If you grab Oliver in the top 10 and then Dexter Lawrence early 2nd...... I'm looking at you Giants and Bills

Bucs as well with Vita Vea

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1 minute ago, JBURGE said:

For sure. But with his stature in the NFL I think that's a waste of his strengths, and I'm sure you agree. If you grab Oliver in the top 10 and then Dexter Lawrence early 2nd......

Bucs as well with Vita Vea

oh 100%. I wouldn't use him that way, but you COULD. I'd rather use him as a hybrid 3-tech/EDGE guy and give you basically unlimited scheme versatility.

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4 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

The difference here is that I posted every 1st rounder, you only posted the really good ones. There are a ton of missed guys from the 2nd round onwards, just like every other position. Like you said it's not as drastic of a drop off as edge or QB, but there is a noticeable drop off

Yep - I just grabbed the bigger names to add to your list in one post for informational purposes

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Just now, rcon14 said:

oh 100%. I wouldn't use him that way, but you COULD. I'd rather use him as a hybrid 3-tech/EDGE guy and give you basically unlimited scheme versatility.

I'm still in the boat where moving up from 12 could be a great idea. Avoid using 30, but 44 is on the table. Even just going up a few spots and using the 3rd. If we see 2 QBs go top 5, which I think is likely, we have one of Bosa, Quinnen, Oliver and Allen guaranteed available at 6. 

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1 minute ago, JBURGE said:

I'm still in the boat where moving up from 12 could be a great idea. Avoid using 30, but 44 is on the table. Even just going up a few spots and using the 3rd. If we see 2 QBs go top 5, which I think is likely, we have one of Bosa, Quinnen, Oliver and Allen guaranteed available at 6. 

I am willing to go there for Oliver, Bosa, or Quinnen. Perhaps Allen as well.

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Regarding this TE discussion, I still have the data from my draft position thread so I ran some numbers to obtain the average production for TEs by round. Remember that this includes only players drafted since 2000:

Round	#Players	Career Yards	Career TDs
1	22		3699,9		28,9
2	32		1901,4		15,3
3	42		1645,1		12,1
4	39		960,8		7,5
5	48		587,1		4,5
6	38		578,1		4,1
7	46		189,8		1,0

This shows the average career yards and TDs by round. I'm of the opinion that a late round TE is better value, but the numbers are there and when it comes to career stats you can hardly justify such a disparity just because the first round TE gets more chances.

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2 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

I am willing to go there for Oliver, Bosa, or Quinnen. Perhaps Allen as well.

We could probably get to 6 with 12 and 44, with a pick coming back to us like a 4th. However the Giants are unlikely to move down, as Gettleman has showed. 1 and 3 might get it done as early as 8. I'd go to 8 for Allen easily

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