deathstar Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 6 minutes ago, Leader said: How so? Position groups selected or individual players? I think that if we select Burns it will be after a small trade down. I'm not a fan of Fant in the first. I don't think CGJ fits our athletic profile. And I'm a fan of McLaurin but I don't think he'll be available in the third. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Cheech said: Wait. The Saints gave up a first and fifth round pick to move from 27 to 14. Could the 75th could get us from 30 to 21? That seems like not nearly enough to me. The problem was the Saints lacked a SRP to make any kind of substantial move up. Not to mention, you could easily make an argument that Marcus Davenport would have graded out higher than the hypothetical player we're discussing at 21. The higher you go up the board, the more teams are going to want. So the difference between dropping from 14 to 27 (13 spots) should be more than 21 to 30 (9 spots). Not only are you moving down more spots in the first trade, but you're moving down from a significantly more premium pick (14 vs. 21). In 2017, the Falcons gave up a 3rd and 7th to move from 31 to 26. The Broncos made a similar trade up in 2016 for Paxton Lynch. Back in 2013, the Falcons dealt a 3rd round pick to move up from 30 to 22, so it seems a ~3rd round pick is roughly the cost. Just depends on how much Seattle wants to move back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 2 minutes ago, deathstar said: I think that if we select Burns it will be after a small trade down. I'm not a fan of Fant in the first. I don't think CGJ fits our athletic profile. And I'm a fan of McLaurin but I don't think he'll be available in the third. Who (or what position group) would you prefer at 12? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 5 minutes ago, Leader said: Who (or what position group) would you prefer at 12? I think we like, in order, Oliver, Sweat, Dillard, then Burns there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Before My Soapbox Breaks By Outpost31 Chapter One: Look At These Names AZ (3) - Bryant Johnson WR, Michael Floyd WR, Jonathan Cooper G. ATL - Julio Jones Baltimore - Mark Clayton Buffalo - Sammy Watkins, Lee Evans CHI - Kevin White, Kyle Long CIN - John Ross, AJ Green, Tyler Eiffert, Jermaine Gresham, Billy Price Den - D. Thomas, Ashley Lelie CLE - Braylon Edwards, Corey Coleman, Kellen Winslow, Alex Mack, Jeff Faine DAL - Zack Martin DET - Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron GB - Javon Walker HOU - Will Fuller, Andre Johnson IND - Q. Nelson, Ryan Kelly JAX - Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Justin Blackmon KAN - Dwayne Bowe LAC - Mike Williams MIA - Davante parker, Ted Ginn MIN - Laquon Treadwell, Troy Williamson, Percy Harvin NE - Daniel Graham NYG - ODB, Evan Engram, Jeremy Shockey NOR - Brandin Cooks, Donte Stallworth OAK - Darrius Heyward-Bey, Amari Cooper PHI - Nelson Agholor, Jeremy Maclin, Danny Watkins PIT - Maurkice Pouncey SF - Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Mike Iupati LAR - Tavon Austin TAM - Mike Evans, Michael Clayton, OJ Howard, Davin Joseph TEN - Corey Davis, Kendall Wright, Chance warmack WAS - John Doctson Sources: The aforementioned names are all non-premium positions drafted 1st overall to 23rd overall since 2002 (the first year we had 32 teams) Chapter Two: The Leftovers -66 non-premium positions drafted top 23 out of 391 players selected top 23 (16%). -The following players were NOT busts Julio Jones, Kyle Long, AJ Green, Alex Mack, Zack Martin, Calvin Johnson, Will Fuller, Andre Johnson, Q. Nelson, Ryan Kelly, ODB, Evan Engram, Brandin Cooks, Amari Cooper, Maurkice Pouncey, Mike Evans, OJ Howard. Three of those players were traded due to poor performance, mystery reasons (Cooks) or poor behavior. That leaves 14/66 having been worth the top 23 selection. The teams who had those non-busts, non-traded picks were the Falcons, Bears, Bengals, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Colts, Giants, Saints, Raiders, Steelers, Buccaneers. Zero Super Bowl wins between those teams. Chapter Three: The Culprits To those who constantly say there is no such thing as value/non value and that teams don't agree, here is the number of non-premium selections by teams who have done it since 2002: Note the teams who have done it three or more times. Philadelphia is the single solitary outlier of teams to have post-season success doing it three or more times. The Giants did it once with Shockey and won a Super Bowl in which Shockey did not take part. Otherwise, they have fallen apart since picking ODB instead of Aaron Donald. For the Eagles, Agholor, Maclin and Watkins were all busts. They won in spite of those picks, and with a new GM who has happened to focus on premium positions since taking over. Jacksonville, Arizona, Tennessee, Tampa Bay... Laughably low levels of success. Then you've got the two main culprits. The three poster children teams for NOT going heavy on non-premium. The teams that have constantly and repeatedly taken top 23 non-premium positions. The wildly successful Lions, Bengals and Browns franchises of lore. The teams with zero playoff wins this century. CIN (5) - John Ross, AJ Green, Tyler Eiffert, Jermaine Gresham, Billy Price CLE (5) Braylon Edwards, Corey Coleman, Kellen Winslow, Alex Mack, Jeff Faine DET (5) Roy Williams, Mike Williams, Calvin Johnson, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron TAM (4) Mike Evans, Michael Clayton, OJ Howard, Davin Joseph TEN (3) Corey Davis, Kendall Wright, Chance warmack AZ (3) - Bryant Johnson WR, Michael Floyd WR, Jonathan Cooper G. MIN (3) Laquon Treadwell, Troy Williamson, Percy Harvin JAX (3) Reggie Williams, Matt Jones, Justin Blackmon NYG (3) ODB, Evan Engram, Jeremy Shockey SF (3) Michael Crabtree, Vernon Davis, Mike Iupati PHI (3) Nelson Agholor, Jeremy Maclin, Danny Watkins Buffalo (2) - Sammy Watkins, Lee Evans CHI (2) - Kevin White, Kyle Long Den (2) D. Thomas, Ashley Lelie HOU (2) Will Fuller, Andre Johnson IND (2) Q. Nelson, Ryan Kelly MIA (2) Davante parker, Ted Ginn NOR (2) Brandin Cooks, Donte Stallworth OAK (2) Darrius Heyward-Bey, Amari Cooper LAR (1) Tavon Austin WAS (1) John Doctson PIT (1) Maurkice Pouncey NE (1) Daniel Graham KAN (1) Dwayne Bowe LAC (1) Mike Williams DAL (1) Zack Martin GB (1) Javon Walker ATL (1) - Julio Jones Baltimore (1) - Mark Clayton Disclaimer: I did not do ILB because the season finder has difficulty differentiating between ILB and OLB. Conclusion - We can't follow these teams if we want to have success in Aaron's final years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leader Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 9 minutes ago, deathstar said: I think we like, in order, Oliver, Sweat, Dillard, then Burns there. Okay. I've pretty much resigned myself to Oliver being gone. So he's "off my board" if you would. If both Oliver and Burns were available at 12 - I'd take Oliver. Sweat - I like Burns better and if both are available - I'd take Burns - especially with Sweat's heart issue. Dillard - I'd rather not burn a 12 on a RT. Simple personal preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Leader said: Okay. I've pretty much resigned myself to Oliver being gone. So he's "off my board" if you would. If both Oliver and Burns were available at 12 - I'd take Oliver. Sweat - I like Burns better and if both are available - I'd take Burns - especially with Sweat's heart issue. Dillard - I'd rather not burn a 12 on a RT. Simple personal preference. With Sweat I see a player that is stronger, better against the run, and Burns' equal when it comes to athleticism. Burns can turn the corner a bit faster, but can he do that at Sweat's weight? I'm not sure. That's what puts him down for me. I don't necessarily care where we play Dillard, I just think he's a better overall player than Burns is and I think you can't have enough good offensive linemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Golfman Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, deathstar said: With Sweat I see a player that is stronger, better against the run, and Burns' equal when it comes to athleticism. Burns can turn the corner a bit faster, but can he do that at Sweat's weight? I'm not sure. That's what puts him down for me. I don't necessarily care where we play Dillard, I just think he's a better overall player than Burns is and I think you can't have enough good offensive linemen. I agree on Dillard and agree with Leader on Sweat with the heart issue. It will surprise me if Burns is a top 15 pick on Thursday. It absolutely could happen because of the value placed on pass rushers. I don't see him as a top 15 player in this draft. Perfect scenario is one of the wanted QB's sitting there at 12 and we have Miami, Washington and NYG bidding for our pick. Giants give us 17 in 1 and 5 in two I'm in. Then maybe you still get Dillard or Burns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaegybomb Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 41 minutes ago, Outpost31 said: Before My Soapbox Breaks Why pick 1 to 23? What does arbitrarily labeling 25% of the group successes for 1 position group and not comparing it to another tell you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfanfb Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 AKA: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1lWJXDG2i0A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 The guy got a green light from actual docs at the Combine, but these scouts know better. Some smart team is going to get a steal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaegybomb Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Because if a doctor allows you to work out at the combine for a day it makes you immune for the rest of your life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 Just now, Jaegybomb said: Because if a doctor allows you to work out at the combine for a day it makes you immune for the rest of your life. Lol thinking those docs are checking the guys for a 1 day workout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaegybomb Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 1 minute ago, Packerraymond said: Lol thinking those docs are checking the guys for a 1 day workout. Per NFL.Com "Ultimately, the combine deemed his condition low-risk and cleared Sweat to participate." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted April 20, 2019 Share Posted April 20, 2019 24 minutes ago, Jaegybomb said: Why pick 1 to 23? What does arbitrarily labeling 25% of the group successes for 1 position group and not comparing it to another tell you? I've obviously spent a lot of time on this theory, and I've for a long time maintained that 24th overall is where the cutoff point is. Meaning, the value typically available at 24 makes non-premium positions worth the investment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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