Week 4: TNF - Vikings @ Rams

[jrry32]

18 minutes ago, Nabbs4u said:

You play the schedule you are delt. If from year to year with the Parity in the NFL the difficulty of that schedule changes, oh well. What on paper looked difficult before the season (S.O.S.) might be the opposite by seasons end and vice versa. 

It's why when people talk about Strength of Schedule based on "last" years records I laugh. Every season teams take a step back or forward. So determining what's truly difficult, is basically a flip of the coin. 

Last year proved exactly that.

Rams, Eagles, Vikings, Jags (come out of nowhere)

Cowboys, Giants, Broncos, Packers (Favorite's take a step back)

You simply never know.

 

The silliness of it all was that the Rams played a schedule last year that was tougher than every other playoff team's schedule in terms of opponent's W-L record except for the teams in the NFCS.

[DigInBoys]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/lar. How is that a cupcake schedule?

[kingseanjohn]

43 minutes ago, DigInBoys said:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/team/schedule/_/name/lar. How is that a cupcake schedule?

For starters the weak division, especially with Jimmy G out and an unproven Rosen. The only real challenge that I see left on the Rams schedule are the Saints, Chiefs, and Eagles.

Of course anything can happen any week. But the Seahawks aren't what they use to be, I don't trust Case Keenum to carry the Broncos, the Packers are being carried by a gimpy Rodgers, Lion are inconsistent, and the Bears have a good D but I don't trust Trubisky yet.

[megatechpc]

15 hours ago, Art_Vandalay said:

Man... so far I've been abysmally wrong about the Rams. Goff dropped some absolute dimes tonight. But... I'm not willing to concede just yet! Just some observations I want to point out.

Has their ever been a team in the history of the NFL that has had three "road games" in their own state? I didn't bother looking at the schedule before making my Rams prediction but they have yet to leave Cali. And let's look at the defenses they've played:

A Raiders defense that's been predictably terrible without Mack.
A Cardinals team whose offense has been a trainwreck and can't stay on the field.
A Chargers team without Joey Bosa that's giving up 31 points a game.
A Vikings team on a short week, without Everson, that just got roasted by a one-legged A-A-ron and Josh Allen.

And now they get a mini-bye before actually having to leave Cali and face a Seahawks defense that got blown up in the offseason. The only challenging defenses I see on their schedule are when they go to Denver in October and Chicago in December. So, I get that I look salty and the Rams offense will more than likely continue to light it up considering their favorable schedule. But I refuse to admit I'm wrong just yet lol.

As the appointed president of the "Rams are overrated" fan club I feel your pain.  I have said all along I think they will be a very good team (going 12-4 and winning the NFC West) so I have never hated on them, I was simply pushing back against the narrative that because they went out and spent a ton in FA that they were obviously the best team in all of football with nobody else even being close.

But I have already admitted that that assertion may have been premature on my part.  Perhaps they are indeed the best team in the NFL (I have them #1 in my rankings now).  I maintain that they haven't really played anybody yet besides the Vikings, but that game last night certainly convinced me that Goff at least CAN be as good as any QB in the league with those insane throws he was delivering, and we all already know what a scheme monster McVay is. 

That said, its only week 4, and I still stand by the fact that the BEST overall team in week 4 of any particular year is rarely the best team overall at season's end (there's just way too much football left to be played to be crowning any team at this point).  We also still have a relatively small sample size on Goff and it will be interesting to see how consistently he can maintain the superlative performance he put on last night.  Fitzpatrick is a guy whom we all know CAN light up any team for crazy numbers on any given Sunday, but we also know that he will inevitably come back down to earth eventually.  Goff hasn't been around long enough to know if he has a more up-and-down nature like Fitz or if he will be a consistent mainstay in the NFL going forward like the Brady's, Rodger's, Brees', etc.

At the end of the day the Rams have all the pieces in place to do extraordinary things right now and all that remains to be seen is if they can maintain consistency over the rest of the season (and of course if they can also do that in the playoffs, which can overwhelm even the best of regular season teams)?  I can't answer that question right now but I will definitely admit that the Rams are not overrated at this point.  I'd still like to see them play some tough road opponents but as of now they are the clear #1 team in the NFL until further notice.

[jrry32]

9 minutes ago, megatechpc said:

We also still have a relatively small sample size on Goff and it will be interesting to see how consistently he can maintain the superlative performance he put on last night.  Fitzpatrick is a guy whom we all know CAN light up any team for crazy numbers on any given Sunday, but we also know that he will inevitably come back down to earth eventually.  Goff hasn't been around long enough to know if he has a more up-and-down nature like Fitz or if he will be a consistent mainstay in the NFL going forward like the Brady's, Rodger's, Brees', etc.

Worth pointing out that these are Goff's numbers over his last 12 regular season starts (last 8 starts in 2017 and first 4 starts this year):

260/389

66.8%

3491 yards

9.0 YPA

30 TDs

5 Ints

115.5 Passer Rating

[El Ramster]

Shut up Jerry. I’m the stat man. Go back to your day trader job. 

[megatechpc]

7 minutes ago, jrry32 said:

Worth pointing out that these are Goff's numbers over his last 12 regular season starts (last 8 starts in 2017 and first 4 starts this year):

260/389

66.8%

3491 yards

9.0 YPA

30 TDs

5 Ints

115.5 Passer Rating

He's been outstanding over the past 12 games, no question (though I wonder whether the playoff game vs Atlanta is included in those stats).  My only point about small sample size is that he's still just 4 games into his third year.  I'd say the same about Wentz.  Fitzpatrick has been around for a decade so we know for a fact that he is an inconsistent QB.  The jury is still out on how consistent Goff will be over a period of years, not games.

[jrry32]

McVay the football savant:

[megatechpc]

Yeah, McVay more than anything else (more than Goff, Gurley, all the FA's, etc) is the biggest factor in the turnaround for the Rams, and its not even close.  Obviously even the greatest HC needs great players to consistently win games, but the 2016 Rams roster was not massively different than it is today and it was a total mess under Fisher.  McVay (along with Shanahan) are the two brightest young minds in head coaching today and they could win games with any roster.

As I said in another post, I really wish the Falcons had offered the HC job to Kyle after the SB rather than letting him get away.  As much as I love DQ, with today's emphasis on offense in the NFL, having a defensive-oriented HC is too old-school, especially when you had a genius offensive coach in the building.  The dream Falcons team would have Kyle as HC and DQ as DC but that of course is just fantasy.  Had that happened though, I am confident the Falcons would've been back in the SB last year.

I know that sounds like a homer take, but the Falcons defense was legit good last year while the offense went way back.  Put the 2016 offense with the 2017 defense and you are looking at a championship-caliber team.  Its what I was hoping for this season, but injuries to the defense have destroyed any chance of that happening now (which is a shame since Sark seems to have gotten that 2016 offense headed back in the right direction).

You Rams fans are tremendously lucky to have a HC like Sean McVay and it was an absolutely inspired hire for them last year.

[11sanchez11]

McVay lives in LA and has a beautiful wife and spends all his time studying NFL defenses. What a loser.

[jrry32]

5 minutes ago, megatechpc said:

Yeah, McVay more than anything else (more than Goff, Gurley, all the FA's, etc) is the biggest factor in the turnaround for the Rams, and its not even close.  Obviously even the greatest HC needs great players to consistently win games, but the 2016 Rams roster was not massively different than it is today and it was a total mess under Fisher.  McVay (along with Shanahan) are the two brightest young minds in head coaching today and they could win games with any roster.

As I said in another post, I really wish the Falcons had offered the HC job to Kyle after the SB rather than letting him get away.  As much as I love DQ, with today's emphasis on offense in the NFL, having a defensive-oriented HC is too old-school, especially when you had a genius offensive coach in the building.  The dream Falcons team would have Kyle as HC and DQ as DC but that of course is just fantasy.  Had that happened though, I am confident the Falcons would've been back in the SB last year.

I know that sounds like a homer take, but the Falcons defense was legit good last year while the offense went way back.  Put the 2016 offense with the 2017 defense and you are looking at a championship-caliber team.  Its what I was hoping for this season, but injuries to the defense have destroyed any chance of that happening now (which is a shame since Sark seems to have gotten that 2016 offense headed back in the right direction).

You Rams fans are tremendously lucky to have a HC like Sean McVay and it was an absolutely inspired hire for them last year.

The bad news for us is that McVay is old, so who knows how much longer he'll coach? Gonna have to retire soon. 

[megatechpc]

The biggest question I have now is, just who will be the next "genius" young guy that can be another McVay?  I know Bears fans think Nagy and Dolphins fans are hanging in there with Gase, but the impact McVay has had is incredible and I don't really know of any other hot offensive coaches out there that can be on par with him.  I have heard of possibly Lincoln Riley, but college coaches are a bit of a crap shoot in the NFL...

[jrry32]

3 minutes ago, megatechpc said:

The biggest question I have now is, just who will be the next "genius" young guy that can be another McVay?  I know Bears fans think Nagy and Dolphins fans are hanging in there with Gase, but the impact McVay has had is incredible and I don't really know of any other hot offensive coaches out there that can be on par with him.  I have heard of possibly Lincoln Riley, but college coaches are a bit of a crap shoot in the NFL...

To be fair, I don't think many (if any) people on this board saw McVay as the next genius. I feel like the vast majority of us Rams fans, including myself, were pounding the table for Kyle Shanahan. So it might be someone you don't expect. McVay didn't get the genius credit in Washington because he worked under an offensive coach. I'm glad the Rams locked McVay up before the 49ers could.

[JAF-N72EX]

That right there says it all.

McVay has used only TWO different personnel this season--11 and 13 (thru week 3)

11 personnel 98% of the time (194 plays)
13 personnel 2% of the time (4 plays)

What's more is how unpredictable he is making it look when choosing to run or pass out of the 11 personnel ---53% pass / 47% run. Most of the league is usually 60/40 across teh board.

Furthermore, of those 53% pass plays - 36% have come off of play-action. Last year, it was 29% (2nd in the NFL only behind the Vikings (30%)).

Do you know hard and frustrating it must be for DC's to game plan for this? 

 

[blizofoz45]

If Kirk Cousins played against the vaunted Rams defense every week:

6,752 passing yards 

48 TDs

0 INTs

72% completion percentage