5th Down Depreciation Thread

[MrBobGray]

5 hours ago, Zycho32 said:

Okay. Rodgers is on the wrong side of 35. Athletically, he's about 90% of what he once was- not as nimble, his arm isn't as strong. It happens with age. '07 Tom Brady is worlds better than '18 Brady when it comes to athleticism.

Mentally, he's 80 to 85% of what he once was. Again, it happens with age. Brett Favre got old, too persistent with his habits, and it showed in all the playoff exits during the 00's. Rodgers doesn't look like Favre from those years because of the lack of interceptions, but it's still the same thing. Instead of crippling his offense with an ill-timed pick, he's meekly churning out three-and-outs, dancing around the pocket, and developing tunnel vision.

He doesn't have the Fight in him unless the cards are stacked in his favor. He doesn't 'create' much positivity out of nothing these days, especially not if the defense takes it to him. From time to time this season I've said the Geoff Face was coming out. That's mostly because with the helmet on, ARs face looks like Geoff Ramsey from Rooster Teeth... specifically, the Geoff who sometimes has to endure video game hell from his co-workers. Ever see the Mini-Golf games on the Lets Play channel, when Geoff would get picked on repeatedly? THAT face. When things aren't in ARs favor, he makes THAT face and just slinks off to the sideline while the punting team comes on.

The 35-40 years are where Elite QBs fall out of the 'Elite' category once and for all and they become merely good. That's worth mentioning. For all the negatives I just listed above, Rodgers is still good compared to at least half of the QBs in the NFL. Even at 90/80 percent of his former self, he can still make good throws and avoid costly turnovers. If you pack a good to great team around him, kinda like those 00's teams for Favre and especially in '07, that's more than enough for him to cruise the team to the playoffs.

Which is honestly the problem. He's no longer good enough to carry a team by himself, and his contract pays him like he still can. The ceiling has closed, blocking out the prospect of a Super Bowl berth. The only chance is one of those 'Lightning-in-a-Bottle' teams that comes together at the right time and rides a hot streak... but I don't see that from this team this year. And to be honest, I don't see it happening in the next few years. At that point, this team will have to make the same kind of drastic decision about Rodgers as they did about Favre in '08, and they won't have the safety blanket of Favre being his wishy-washy self about retirement. It's going to be an ugly moment, and it probably will come without a heir apparent waiting in the wings.

Brace yourselves people. Rome will burn soon.

Unfortunately, last night's Rodgers reminded me most strongly of Favre in the '07 NFC Championship game.  I remember seeing Favre standing on the sideline and realizing "he really doesn't want to go back out there.  He's terrified of getting hit in this weather" and was 100% sure he would retire after that season.  When you get to the point that you're thinking more about the rush than you are about what you're going to do about it, you're done.

I'm not saying Rodgers is done.  But he had that same helpless look on his face, where he had tried everything he was willing to try and knew the only way to get back into it was the one thing he wasn't willing to do.  Rodgers did not want to stand in front of that rush and try to throw strikes downfield, and while I can't blame him as a fellow human with a functioning survival instinct, that's what it takes to win Super Bowls in the NFL.  

I'm not sure he's fully done yet.  If he can keep the switch flipped that he found when Adams was out, he's still an elite QB IMO.  But that's going to require him believing that the rest of this squad can get it done, and being willing to throw some trust balls to receivers he clearly doesn't.

[coachbuns]

3 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Unfortunately, last night's Rodgers reminded me most strongly of Favre in the '07 NFC Championship game.  I remember seeing Favre standing on the sideline  iand realizing "he really doesn't want to go back out there.  He's terrified of getting hit in this weather" and was 100% sure he would retire after that season.  When you get to the point that you're thinking more about the rush than you are about what you're going to do about it, you're done.

I'm not saying Rodgers is done.  But he had that same helpless look on his face, where he had tried everything he was willing to try and knew the only way to get back into it was the one thing he wasn't willing to do.  Rodgers did not want to stand in front of that rush and try to throw strikes downfield, and while I can't blame him as a fellow human with a functioning survival instinct, that's what it takes to win Super Bowls in the NFL.  

I'm not sure he's fully done yet.  If he can keep the switch flipped that he found when Adams was out, he's still an elite QB IMO.  But that's going to require him believing that the rest of this squad can get it done, and being willing to throw some trust balls to receivers he clearly doesn't.

I'm not sure there's a qb in this league that wouldn't have felt the same way last night.  There's not many qb's that have won a super bowl getting their *** pounded like he did.  The rest of the squad has to pick their game up too.  Hoping he throws the ball up there like some are requesting.  If they get intercepted ... so be it.  However, don't jump him for throwing those interceptions "trusting" the receivers to complete the play.  

[MrBobGray]

12 hours ago, GalenaPackFan said:

Go back and read the very first post to this thread. I'll wait. I thought Outpost had started this thread today and was amazed at 71 pages already. Then I looked at the dates. 

Other than the stats, that post COULD have been written today.

Serious question: does making elite throws make a quarterback elite? I have this discussion with the group I watch games with at least every other week. I say no. They say yes. When the first MSM sports guy calls out Rogers as 'not elite anymore' he/she will be crucified with clips of stupid good throws. But I would say any qb at the NFL level should be physically able to make elite throws once in a while. Do they make them on a consistent basis and/or during crunch time? That says more about being elite to me. And I don't see Rogers doing that anymore.

This will differ person to person as you noted, but IMO: not in the slightest.  Tons of QBs can make elite throws; guys like Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, ten thousand other 1st round busts I'm too lazy to name all got picked where they did because they had the arm talent to make elite throws. But elite throws are generally an option of last resort; there's a reason Tom Brady keeps winning Super Bowls even though his arm is a pale shadow of what it once was.  Accuracy is important and necessary, but only to a point; beyond that field vision, pre and post snap awareness and intelligence, and pocket movement are vastly more important.  If you can stay upright and get the ball to the guy on the field who's open, you don't really need that elite arm.  Now sure, sometimes no one's open, and that elite arm lets you put the ball into a place that very few people can put it and steal a completion.  But if you're relying on that for anything other than occasional plays it means you're probably not running in the offense at a successful clip.

[MrBobGray]

1 minute ago, coachbuns said:

I'm not sure there's a qb in this league that wouldn't have felt the same way last night.  There's not many qb's that have won a super bowl getting their *** pounded like he did.  The rest of the squad has to pick their game up too.  Hoping he throws the ball up there like some are requesting.  If they get intercepted ... so be it.  However, don't jump him for throwing those interceptions "trusting" the receivers to complete the play.  

The issue is not him feeling that way, it's not being able to push through it.  Other QBs in the league get lit up all the time.  It's a pretty regular occurence to see a QB try to deliver the ball as he's getting hit for nearly every team but Green Bay.  No one likes it, and it's dangerous to do too much, but part of the job description is standing tall and delivering when there's a play to be made.  

[AlexGreen#20]

https://twitter.com/NFL_Stats/status/1199060688662155269

This is actually nauseating

[Gopackgonerd]

1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

https://twitter.com/NFL_Stats/status/1199060688662155269

This is actually nauseating

this man hates the middle of the field for some reason

[Striker]

23 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

https://twitter.com/NFL_Stats/status/1199060688662155269

This is actually nauseating

If you'd have shown me that chart without Rodgers face on it I'd have assumed this was Sam Bradford.

[squire12]

42 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

https://twitter.com/NFL_Stats/status/1199060688662155269

This is actually nauseating

The 1 pass in the short middle that was incomplete to Allison on the 2nd drive.

The deep pass in the middle was out the back of the end zone to MVS.

Would love to see the passing charts from other games this season.

[coachbuns]

2 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

The issue is not him feeling that way, it's not being able to push through it.  Other QBs in the league get lit up all the time.  It's a pretty regular occurence to see a QB try to deliver the ball as he's getting hit for nearly every team but Green Bay.  No one likes it, and it's dangerous to do too much, but part of the job description is standing tall and delivering when there's a play to be made.  

That's bull about nearly every team but Green Bay.  Rodgers has stood tall and taken broken collar bones, broken leg, hurt knees and such for years.  As one gets older as Brees, Brady, etc. has, they don't stand tall and take it.  It's a young mans game to stand tall and take it.  It's all right and good to do so but there's also something to be said as a qb gets older to live another day.  If it gets to bad ... retire.  Play calling and getting Rodgers to get rid of the ball quickly would only benefit him as he ages.  

[MrBobGray]

Both of those QBs absolutely do.

[{Family Ghost}]

Aaron the great is 42-46 on the road in his career.  Not good.   Favre had a losing road record as well. 

Edited November 26, 2019 by {Family Ghost}

[AlexGreen#20]

Lewis wide the hell open for a first down? Hell no, I've got a covered Davante Adams that I can overthrow by 5 yards!

It's my #1 receiver wide open over the middle for a first down? Can't stand and deliver, goes into the fetal position and takes the sack. Quick release my ***.

More Lewis wide the hell open over the middle? Another bad deep ball to Davante Adams!!!

A first down? By throwing over the middle? Don't you know that Geronimo Allison dropped a ball over the middle that was almost intercepted??? We're never doing that again.

Lazard absolutely humiliated Sherman off the line here. This ended up in a checkdown for a gain of 3.

Lazard running away from a Linebacker? Better take a couple of jog steps to make 10,000% sure he's clear enough that I can throw this ball without risk of a pick. What? He's too close to the sideline now? Damn, oh well, at least it's not a pick.

Time to show off the rocket arm and throw a late breaking route to the outside for a first down? Nope, time to checkdown.

It was 4th and 8. The 20 yard line was the first down. If you think Rodgers stared at Davante right up until he felt pressure and then surrendered on the play, you bet your *** he did. 

[coachbuns]

As mentioned in another post, I've been a Rodgers apologist for quite a while.  Can't do it anymore ... he's got to see the field better ... period.  Not sure why he isn't but hopefully watching game tape wakes him up to the issues.  His ego and legacy depends on him getting his crap together as his career winds down.

[coachbuns]

9 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

Both of those QBs absolutely do.

Yeah ok ... going nowhere with this.  Carry on.

[Uffdaswede]

13 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

This will differ person to person as you noted, but IMO: not in the slightest.  Tons of QBs can make elite throws; guys like Jamarcus Russell, Blaine Gabbert, ten thousand other 1st round busts I'm too lazy to name all got picked where they did because they had the arm talent to make elite throws. But elite throws are generally an option of last resort; there's a reason Tom Brady keeps winning Super Bowls even though his arm is a pale shadow of what it once was.  Accuracy is important and necessary, but only to a point; beyond that field vision, pre and post snap awareness and intelligence, and pocket movement are vastly more important.  If you can stay upright and get the ball to the guy on the field who's open, you don't really need that elite arm.  Now sure, sometimes no one's open, and that elite arm lets you put the ball into a place that very few people can put it and steal a completion.  But if you're relying on that for anything other than occasional plays it means you're probably not running in the offense at a successful clip.

This was one of those excellent posts that I read before seeing who posted it, and then I said, "This has to be MrBob" in my head before scrolling up to confirm.

My takeaway is that time is running out for Aaron Rodgers to gracefully transition into his final years by functioning within an offense instead of being the offense.

EDIT: I saw the exchange between MrBob and Coachbuns re: Aaron hanging in the pocket and I kind of agree with Buns on that one. In fact, it seemed like the MrBob quote above argues for the Coachbuns position that Aaron needs to play differently, not more bravely. AG20's screenshots certainly suggest that Aaron could attack the field more effectively. I don't think that means he has to take gratuitous shots to make that happen.

Edited November 26, 2019 by Uffdaswede