Marcus Mariota: Is it Time ??

[TitanSS]

They've won a lot, but I've read a lot of Texans fans think their record is a bit of fool's gold. They think they've been very fortunate with a lot of their wins and their record isn't a true indicator of the overall quality of the team. I think he's put up more impressive stats than he has complete games. I've definitely seen him make some great throws though.

He puts up a lot of yards for a team with the 5th scoring defense and the 6th rushing offense to be in so many close games with less talented teams. Outside of their game against us and one against the Dolphins with a backup QB, they haven't really played dominant football this year for a 10-4 team. The article I read sounded like some fans still wanted O'Brien fired.

We may finish 9-7 this year and we may have finished 9-7 in the previous two years, but I feel like this football team is better by a good margin than in the previous two years. Sometimes the records can be misleading. The defense is dominant and even though the offense struggles to score points, we are able to move the ball enough to give the impression that it's that close to putting it all together. Despite Mariota's flaws, he's been much better on third downs this year than the previous two years and he's still good late in games. I'd like him to play with the same urgency to score and the level of confidence in the first half that he does in the second half of close games.

Edited December 20, 2018 by TitanSS

[deeluxx3]

Even last year, Wentz seems to me a more Matt Ryan, tier 2 qb rather than a Rodgers Tier 1

 

idk who the tier 1 QBs of the 2020s will be. Wentz is very very good but rather overhyped 

[Andrei01]

1 hour ago, KingTitan said:

They have flipped. That is why I don't pay attention to any of them when they talk about QBs. Anyone remember when some people said Luck was done or when RG3 was the man (that is always my go to example.)  Or when they said Dak is the best QB under 25. 
I remember seeing a tweet by Jeremiah about Marcus going through his progressions and how he said that isn't common for a rookie. People were loving his throwing motion. etc... Now not so much. 

So all the Watson, Mahomes, Goff, and Wentz stuff doesn't mean much to me. Give me a couple years and then talk to me.

Now I do think Marcus has shown improvement in areas. Reading Defenses, making calls at the line.  But he hasn't shown substantial improvement. 

But other than Luck and I guess Wilson. I'm not in a position to look it up.  Have there been any QBs in the last couple years that have come out and are undoubtedly "the Man" that will lead their team to multiple playoffs and Super Bowls (Manning, Rodgers Brady like).

Wentz is good, but if we being honest, he has injury problems too.
Watson hasn't changed his game yet. He still kind of wings it.
Mahomes is awesome but it's one year.
Goff was great last year this year he has come down to Earth somewhat and these last few games he has looked bad.
Dak is what Dak is.....
Winston may be out the door in Tampa.
Marcus is mid-level to me (average). 

Are we going to see a team or QB be on top like the Rodgers, Brady era?

Well, to be fair, all the talk about Mariota was a search for positive things to highlight in a not-so-great start of a career. All those other young QBs you mention have showed and sustained basically MVP-level play already. They all could end up regressing, but the comparison is not really fair.

I also think Rodgers is without a doubt one of the most talented QBs the league has ever seen, but it's hard even for him to really carry a team. Maybe to the playoffs, but he has just the one SB trip to show for his career, and this year very much proves that as great as he is, he can still be a part of a bad team. Brady might be different, but he also had BB and as great as he is and has been, that helped a lot. Eventually a consensus of a top 3/top 5 will be formed out of this generation too, but a lot will depend on supporting cast and maybe even more importantly, offensive coaching and play calling. Goff and McVay, Mahomes and Reid, Wentz and Pederson, Watson and O'Brien look like QB/HC duos that are here to stay, and by the looks of it, each will be very tough to go against. I'd even throw in Shanahan and Jimmy G. Hell, even Nagy and Trubisky looks like a pretty good match already. 

[ragevsuall17]

The Mariota Smith comparisons have been very popular... and it's easy to see why on the surface.  High draft picks who didn't quite live up to the hype, have been injury prone, are mobile, accurate QBs who aren't explosive/dynamic in the passing game.  Heck, even I've made the comparison, although it's always been to mention Smith as Mariota's floor.  I still believe that.

Like Mariota, Smith didn't get much in the way of continuity from a coaching perspective.  

Smith went through:

1. McCarthy - year 1
2. Turner - year 2
3. Hostetler - year 3
4. Martz - year 4 (although he did miss this whole year on the IR)
5. Jimmy Raye - years 5 and 6
6. He then had his 2 best years in SF under Harbaugh/Roman before he was shipped off to KC

Mariota has had:

1. Wisenhunt/Michael - year 1
2. Robiskie - years 2 and 3
3. LaFleur - year 4

Mariota's seen less turnover than Smith through their first 4 years... but you can see the trend.  The big difference is that both McCarthy and Turner left SF to be HC's ... and both have proven to be great offensive coaches through their careers.  Wisenhunt, Michael and Robiskie were all fired/demoted.

[ragevsuall17]

As far as stats 4 years into their careers (I'll use Smith's 5th season since he missed his entire 4th season)

• Alex Smith started 40 of 43 games, had a 16-24 record (no season above .500), completed 56% of his passes for 7,000 yards (163 ypg), had a 37:43 ratio, and a 69.2 QB rating, 384 yards from scrimmage, 3.4 y/touch, and 2 RRTDs.
• Mariota has started 54 of 55 games with a 26-28 record (on the verge of his 3rd straight winning season), has completed 63% of his passes for 11,900 yards (216 ypg), a 69:42 ratio, and a 89.3 rating, 1300 yards from scrimmage, 6.1 y/touch, and 12 RRTDs.

That's after 4 full seasons (Mariota still has 2 games to add to that)... through age 25.

There really isn't comparison at this stage of their careers... that's obvious.

[ragevsuall17]

From age 25-28 (the last 4 years in SFO, overlapping that 2009 season used as the 4th year above), Smith improved his stats to be similar to Mariota's 22-25 seasons:

45 of 48 games, 27-17 record, 200 y/g, 62%, 62:32 ratio, 88.2 rating (rushing was still low).

 

The more dramatic jump didn't happen until he left SF, and joined up with Reid, Pederson, and Nagy.

Those first 4 seasons there (age 29-32 seasons) saw him go 41-20 in 61 games, 64.5%, 222 ypg, 76:28 ratio, a 92.2 QB rating.  He also started running more, to the tune of 1,316 yards from scrimmage and 9 RRTDs.

It isn't until this point that Alex Smith's stats jump past Mariota's... but not in a dramatic fashion.  Last year he took it up a notch the first half of the season... and was in fact one of the favorites for the MVP... with ESPN having him 3rd at midseason:

 

Quote

 

3. Alex Smith, QB | Kansas City Chiefs

Regular-season passing: 204-for-293 (69.6 percent); 2,444 yards; 18 TDs; 1 INT; 64.1 Total QBR

The case for Smith: The Chiefs' red-hot start has fizzled as they've lost three out of four after opening the season 5-0, but Smith is still humming along. He's third in completion percentage behind Drew Brees and Josh McCown. (Let that sentence sink in for a second.) He's second in passing yards, first in passer rating and first in yards per attempt while still throwing only one interception to go with his 18 touchdown passes. Smith has brilliantly transitioned along with Kansas City's speedy new weapons to a new style of offense, and the Chiefs are leading the AFC West because of it.

 

 

[ragevsuall17]

Bottom line, I still want to see what Mariota, at age 26, can do in a second season with LaFleur. 

I want to see what LaFleur, after getting his first year of playcalling under his belt, can do in a second season with Mariota.

I want to see what the offense can do with more than 1 weapon in Davis.  Walker back and a 2nd receiver can make a hell of a difference.  Lets not forget this offense lost one of the better, most complete TE's in the game and a WR that had averaged just under 60/900/7 the previous 2 years.  He essentially lost 130/1700/12 in those 2 guys... in season... with not many options to replace them other than the young inexperienced guys.

And I'd like to see if Henry really has turned the corner, and can run the same way next season in a contract year.

[TitanSS]

I understand the point in comparing stats, but the league wasn't as geared towards passing in 2005 as it was in 2015. Andy Dalton may be a better comparison if you want to compare stats for an average QB in recent years. Just glancing over his first four years he's going to be comparable in every category.

I would love to be the one who is wrong and for Mariota to make significant leap over the average guy. I'd love for Derrick Henry to play at a high level the next 18 games and get a new contract too. We'll see how the two do with another season with LaFleur.

Edited December 21, 2018 by TitanSS

[ragevsuall17]

8 hours ago, TitanSS said:

I understand the point in comparing stats, but the league wasn't as geared towards passing in 2005 as it was in 2015. Andy Dalton may be a better comparison if you want to compare stats for an average QB in recent years. Just glancing over his first four years he's going to be comparable in every category.

I would love to be the one who is wrong and for Mariota to make significant leap over the average guy. I'd love for Derrick Henry to play at a high level the next 18 games and get a new contract too. We'll see how the two do with another season with LaFleur.

Yeah, there's definitely been rule changes, but it's not like we're trying to compare different eras. 

In 2005, the league averaged 203 ypg and an 80.1 qb rating. In 2009 (the last year I used for Smith), the league averaged 218 ypg and an 83 qb rating. 

This year shows 240 ypg and a 93 qb rating. Last year was 224 ypg and an 87 qb rating... Not much different from 2009. 

Either way, Mariota is at least near league average his first 4 seasons while Smith was not even close to being average when compared to his peers during his first 4 seasons. 

And I know stats aren't everything... Just highlighting the discrepencies between the 2, both as it relates to each other and against their peers.

Coaching has also been a huge factor in Mariota's delayed progression. Smith had some extremely successful offensive minds to mold him when he was young ... McCarthy, Turner, Harbaugh... But didn't show real growth until his age 29 season under Reid, Pederson, and Nagy (currently some of the better offensive minds). 

Mariota had half a year of Whiz (great offensive mind who's a horrible hc like Turner... Though Turner was OC for Smith), Jason Micheal and Terry freaking Robiskie. LaFleur is here now, and while he's had his share of lumps, he's got a good pedigree and has shown he's able to adjust, and should be much more comfortable next year. If Lafleur is indeed that offensive mind we believe he is (can be), then why is it absurd to expect Mariota take a similar leap at the ripe old age of 26?

 

[TitanSS]

Highest passer rating on PFF 0-graded or "expected" throws

(QBs having good luck/help from playmakers)

Marcus Mariota 92.6
Ryan Tannehill 91.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick 89.6
Mitchell Trubisky 89.4
Matt Ryan 88.7
Ben Roethlisberger 87.7

[-Hope-]

16 minutes ago, TitanSS said:

Highest passer rating on PFF 0-graded or "expected" throws

(QBs having good luck/help from playmakers)

Marcus Mariota 92.6
Ryan Tannehill 91.6
Ryan Fitzpatrick 89.6
Mitchell Trubisky 89.4
Matt Ryan 88.7
Ben Roethlisberger 87.7

what does this mean? that mariota has a high rating on passes that wouldn't normally have been completed? ie getting bailed out by his receivers? honestly, that'd surprise me. can't say i remember a ton of times this season where i've thought our pass catchers have bailed him out of a bad throw.

[TitanSS]

37 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

what does this mean? that mariota has a high rating on passes that wouldn't normally have been completed? ie getting bailed out by his receivers? honestly, that'd surprise me. can't say i remember a ton of times this season where i've thought our pass catchers have bailed him out of a bad throw.

"At one end of the scale you have a catastrophic game-ending interception or pick-six from a quarterback, and at the other a perfect deep bomb into a tight window in a critical game situation, with the middle of that scale being 0-graded, or ‘expected’ plays that are neither positive nor negative."  https://www.profootballfocus.com/pff-player-grades

He has the highest passer rating on throws you would expect the QB to make. Most likely shorter throws with the guy relatively uncovered. His passer rating (not PFF rating) is higher on these throws most likely due to our skill position players getting a lot of YAC, bringing up his average YPA on such throws. The throw to Jonnu Smith against the Texans come to mind. That is a throw that will drastically raise a passer rating, but didn't require anything special out of Marcus. Same with screens.

Our skill position guys are helping him out by uncovering and getting yards with the ball in their hands. Probably a lot goes to LaFleur too for a lot of great route combinations to beat certain coverages. I don't think this statistic actually says anything about Marcus outside of the fact that his receivers are getting yardage on easy throws.

Edited December 21, 2018 by TitanSS

[-Hope-]

Just now, TitanSS said:

"At one end of the scale you have a catastrophic game-ending interception or pick-six from a quarterback, and at the other a perfect deep bomb into a tight window in a critical game situation, with the middle of that scale being 0-graded, or ‘expected’ plays that are neither positive nor negative."  https://www.profootballfocus.com/pff-player-grades

He has the highest passer rating on throws you would expect the QB to make. Most likely shorter throws with the guy relatively uncovered. His passer rating (not PFF rating) is higher on these throws most likely due to our skill position players getting a lot of YAC, bringing up his average YPA on such throws. The throw to Jonnu Smith against the Texans come to mind. That is a throw that will drastically raise a passer rating, but didn't require anything special out of Marcus. Same with screens.

Our skill position guys are helping him out by uncovering and getting yards with the ball in their hands. Probably a lot goes to LaFleur too for a lot of great route combinations to beat certain coverages.

ahhhh gotcha. this is definitely the first time in ages i feel like we've had an effective WR screen game (and we throw it to guys like cam batson instead of eric goddamn decker! imagine!), and guys like dion lewis (and certainly jonnu later on in the year) have helped out in that area too.

i'm surprised tannehill isn't higher. i feel like the dolphins have gotten an insane number of long plays on those jet sweep pop passes, it's absolutely wild

[Titansfan_13]

46 minutes ago, -Hope- said:

ahhhh gotcha. this is definitely the first time in ages i feel like we've had an effective WR screen game (and we throw it to guys like cam batson instead of eric goddamn decker! imagine!), and guys like dion lewis (and certainly jonnu later on in the year) have helped out in that area too.

i'm surprised tannehill isn't higher. i feel like the dolphins have gotten an insane number of long plays on those jet sweep pop passes, it's absolutely wild

It feels to me like this year is the first time in ages we've had guys schemed open instead of having to take advantage of a busted play on defense or just abuse a defender to be open.

[FutureIsWhite]

At what point do we move on? I mean these injuries to Marcus are starting to really become a joke at this point ... Guy is so unreliable it’s comical...