2019 Free Agent Discussion

[MaximusGluteus]

6 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

There's no such thing as second tier for pass rushers.  Second tier will still get paid like first tier.  Your only hope for getting any value whatsoever there is in a trade, or signing somebody like Suggs (Peppers) who everyone thinks is done. 

We don't have to roll with Fackrell and rookies.  Nick Perry has had two good/decent seasons in the past three years.  You try to renegotiate with him or just keep him in light of the dead cap it will take to cut him, and you re-sign Matthews to a decent deal. 

Matthews/Fackrell/Perry/rookies is more than adequate. 

Fackrell/Matthews/Suggs/Rookie is more than adequate.

I just went through all the available pass rushers.  There is nothing inspiring about any of them, and they're all going to get paid 13 million per or more. 

Just curious what your opinion is on  Cameron Wake?  Unless I'm mistaken I'm pretty sure he's an UFA.  He's 37 and his sack numbers were down last year but he's been really productive good whole career so maybe he could be another one of those guys that people think are done that could be had for a reasonable price.

[JBURGE]

5 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Makes more sense for the Raiders to get Brown than the Saints. 

Raiders are years away. Makes more sense for a team that is on the cusp imo

[MacReady]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

What are you talking about? Of course they're are market tiers of every free agent position. For example (your example), Suggs would be a second tier. Markus Golden could be another. They're not all getting $15 million ish per.Markus Golden

Roll with Rick Perry? Have you paid attention to his injury history for the last 7 years?

So you're afraid to go with Nick Perry because of injury concerns, and yet you're willing to pay Markus Golden? 

Let's do the math first here.  Keeping Perry costs 14 million.  Cutting Perry costs 11 million. 

Now let's compare Golden to Perry. 

In the past two years, Nick Perry has missed 11 games.  He has had 8.5 sacks in those two years.
Golden has missed 17 games in the past two years.  He's had 2.5 sacks in those two years. 

Nick Perry has averaged 4.4 missed games per season. 
Markus Golden has averaged 4.5 missed games per season. 

Nick Perry has averaged .4 sacks per game.
Golden has averaged .41 sacks per game.

Markus Golden is EXTREMELY similar to Perry in almost every way, and yet you think he's an upgrade over Perry.  He's not.  Like I said, you are suffering from "Different is better." 

Markus Golden is going to cost probably 8-10 million per.  That is not worth it. 

[MacReady]

Just now, MaximusGluteus said:

Just curious what your opinion is on  Cameron Wake?  Unless I'm mistaken I'm pretty sure he's an UFA.  He's 37 and his sack numbers were down last year but he's been really productive good whole career so maybe he could be another one of those guys that people think are done that could be had for a reasonable price.

He'd be a good option since it would be a short duration deal.  Paying somebody like Suggs or Wake 10 million per for one season is exponentially better than paying someone like Z or P Smith 11 million or more per for 4-5 years. 

Also, both Wake and Suggs have shown what no other option has... Consistent production throughout their careers. 

I'd sign Wake, Suggs or trade for Houston long before I'd ever sign one of these other options. 

[Chili]

2 hours ago, packfanfb said:

Yuck at that. Far cheaper to get top tier FA talent at safety, inside linebacker and #2 wide receiver types. If they want they could even double dip in the draft and combined would still be cheaper than a FA.

Of course targeting a pass rusher in free agency makes sense if they plan to cut Perry and that they also anticipate Matthews leaving. They are gonna want to pair the rookie with someone experienced imo.

Edited March 1, 2019 by Chili

[Arthur Penske]

33 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

So you're afraid to go with Nick Perry because of injury concerns, and yet you're willing to pay Markus Golden? 

 

Nope. Never said that. 

[Arthur Penske]

33 minutes ago, Chili said:

Yuck at that. Far cheaper to get top tier FA talent at safety, inside linebacker and #2 wide receiver types. If they want they could even double dip in the draft and combined would still be cheaper than a FA.

Of course targeting a pass rusher in free agency makes sense if they plan to cut Perry and that they also anticipate Matthews leaving. They are gonna want to pair the rookie with someone experienced imo.

Why do we need those like an EDGE? We've got options there, nothing in the cupboard at EDGE really. 

[JBURGE]

Just now, Arthur Penske said:

Why do we need those like an EDGE? We've got options there, nothing in the cupboard at EDGE really. 

If we keep Perry, we have him and Fackrell. That gives us a #2 when healthy and a #4. Not really cupboard bare per se. We don't need a typical #1 with how Pettine generates pressure. 

[rcon14]

2 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

If we keep Perry, we have him and Fackrell. That gives us a #2 when healthy and a #4. Not really cupboard bare per se. We don't need a typical #1 with how Pettine generates pressure.

This is a thing that I just don't get. Ye, Pettine can produce pressure with blitzes, but that comes at a cost as well. If you have better players at EDGE, then Pettine doesn't have to send extra guys from coverage. Pettine being able to create pressure with exotic blitzes isn't a free lunch.

Edited March 1, 2019 by rcon14

[snackattack]

2 hours ago, Outpost31 said:

It's not about that, it's about the value of pass rushers in free agency.  There is no value.  Teams don't let good pass rushers go, or at least they don't let good pass rushers go that they trust giving loads of money to.  When was the last EDGE free agent that turned out to be worth their contract?  Don't show me Calais Campbell because he's not an EDGE. 

So show me the last EDGE that turned out to be worth it.  The last major EDGE I can remember is Olivier Vernon, and the Giants are now shopping him because he was a major failure. 

*Frank Clark?  Seahawks are keeping him (Carroll has already said this, so he'll get tagged or re-signed). 
*Clowney?  Effort and commitment concerns have followed him his entire career from college to pros and he has significantly underperformed for his talent.  If he hits the market, he will be the biggest bust in free agency in a good while. 
*Flowers?  He's going to get paid like he's had multiple double digit sack seasons when his career high is 7.5.  The Patriots are NOT a team who frequently lets good players go in free agency, and teams often overpay for their players. 

Then you've got Barrett.  What's he done?  Very little, yet he's going to get paid 10 million per minimum.  He's got 14 career sacks in 4 seasons.  People act like he'd be a huge get.  Why?  Clay Matthews would provide just as much value as Barrett at a fraction of the cost. 

Dante Fowler Jr.  For all the talk of how he had a huge impact on the Rams, he had 2 whole sacks while playing for them.  Two.  He is a third down pass rusher.  He's not a starter, he's a pass rush specialist.  He's going to get 10-12 million per. 

Preston Smith?  He started 16 games for the Redskins and had 4 sacks.  Why are people acting like he'd be a savior?  Clay Matthews had half a sack less, and yet people would happily pay Preston Smith 13 million per year. 

Za'Darious Smith?  He was a pass rush specialist, not an every down EDGE, on the Number One Defense In The NFL.  You have to keep this in mind.  He split starts with Matt Judon, who had 1.5 less sacks than Smith.  Smith is not some pass rush savior.  He is going to get overpaid. 

There is no savior at EDGE in free agency.  Not one of the options is coming in as a full time starter to save the position.  Every single one of them is a pass rush specialist, or did not perform all that much better than Matthews did. 

Every single one of those options is going to get overpaid.  It's baffling to me how people are so ready to get another Nick Perry or Clay Matthews contract on our team for the same kind of production. 

The only proven method to improving the EDGE position is through the draft or through a trade.  This is not 1992.  Teams understand free agency.  They know how it works, they know the risks, they know how to plan their roster so that they do not lose an important player who is worth the money.  There is no Reggie White, there is no savior at pass rush. 

Look back through the sack leaders each year and you will find that the sack leaders were either:

1. Drafted by that team
2. Traded

Teams do not let that value go for a third round compensatory pick.  They do not, and they will not. 

The one outlier is Calais Campbell.  Let's be honest though, the Cardinals are a crappily-run organization that has frequently made stupid mistakes to save money.  They are literally the cheapest organization in all of football.  They cut Tyran Mathieu.  They had literally no reason to cut him other than to save money, and it wasn't a cap space need either.  They just... Frickin cut him to save money. 

 

you had a lot pent up inside you, and i'm glad you let it out.  but my post had nothing to do with free agency versus draft.  Packfanfb implied that we need to address safety over edge because having better safety play would be more important than having a better pass rush.  i disagreed with that sentiment is all.

i'm curious though- do your thoughts on FA pass rushers apply to other positions as well?  safety for example?

[Arthur Penske]

10 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

If we keep Perry, we have him and Fackrell. That gives us a #2 when healthy and a #4. Not really cupboard bare per se. We don't need a typical #1 with how Pettine generates pressure. 

I literally just stated I had interest in a 2nd tier EDGE rusher.

Again, placing faith in Perry is asinine based on his past.

Edited March 1, 2019 by Arthur Penske

[JBURGE]

22 minutes ago, rcon14 said:

23 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

If we keep Perry, we have him and Fackrell. That gives us a #2 when healthy and a #4. Not really cupboard bare per se. We don't need a typical #1 with how Pettine generates pressure.

This is a thing that I just don't get. Ye, Pettine can produce pressure with blitzes, but that comes at a cost as well. If you have better players at EDGE, then Pettine doesn't have to send extra guys from coverage. Pettine being able to create pressure with exotic blitzes isn't a free lunch.

Maybe I should have worded that "with how Pettine is able to generate pressure".

There isn't an elite or even a premium edge out there in FA right now who will be able to consistently generate pressure. There isn't unless Lawrence or Frank Clark doesn't get tagged/signed. My issue is paying someone in march like they will when they won't. If you want one, trade for Justin Houston. 

I would rather not pay one and over-draft an edge than pay Preston Smith $16m+ 

Edited March 1, 2019 by JBURGE

[JBURGE]

8 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

17 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

If we keep Perry, we have him and Fackrell. That gives us a #2 when healthy and a #4. Not really cupboard bare per se. We don't need a typical #1 with how Pettine generates pressure. 

I literally just stated I had interest in a 2nd tier EDGE rusher.

Again, placing faith in Perry is asinine based on his past.

Sorry, we are using different definitions for 1st and 2nd tier. You are speaking in this FA class, and I am speaking an EDGE #1 on a roster. I agree that we should hit one of the free agents, but not at the cost that a premium edge rusher is getting paid right now. I'd rather draft the elite rusher and sign middle of the roster type guys for depth. We're not going to fix the edge position this offseason alone unless we trade for one and draft a hit at 12

[rcon14]

4 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Maybe I should have worded that "with how Pettine is able to generate pressure".

There isn't an elite or even a premium edge out there in FA right now who will be able to consistently generate pressure. There isn't unless Lawrence or Frank Clark doesn't get tagged/signed. My issue is paying someone in march like they will when they won't. If you want one, trade for Justin Houston. 

I would rather not pay one 18m and over-draft an edge than pay Preston Smith $16m+ 

Yeah I love Preston Smith and at 16M I'm saying no. If he goes above 12-13 I'm out, which he probably will.

[Arthur Penske]

3 minutes ago, JBURGE said:

Sorry, we are using different definitions for 1st and 2nd tier. You are speaking in this FA class, and I am speaking an EDGE #1 on a roster. I agree that we should hit one of the free agents, but not at the cost that a premium edge rusher is getting paid right now. I'd rather draft the elite rusher and sign middle of the roster type guys for depth. We're not going to fix the edge position this offseason alone unless we trade for one and draft a hit at 12

I want both a premium rusher and a high EDGE draft pick.