incognito_man Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Just now, CWood21 said: I really can't believe this simple concept is going over your head. Despite your opinion otherwise, he doesn't have a 42% chance of winning multiple Super Bowls because your "sample size" you used only includes those who already won. It's not simple statistics, it misleading statistics using faulty information. 😂 Yikes man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaire_Island Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 minute ago, incognito_man said: Math fail. Re-read my post and try to get the coin flip analogy. Do you have better odds flipping 2 heads in three tries if you get a heads on the first flip or a tails on the first flip? You continue to argue the latter. It's nonsense. Historically speaking, MM has a 42% chance of being a multiple SB winning coach BECAUSE HE ALREADY HAS ONE (i.e he ALREADY flipped heads once). This is simple statistics, man. Even better for MMs argument is that good coaches win SBs. Bad coaches don't. Good coaches are more likely to win more. MM is clearly a good coach because he's ALREADY won. Please refrain from calling someone obtuse when you are completely whiffing on the elementary math involved. No need of math Incognito. Common sense says MM can’t win another OWL with Packers. How about this?. Fire MM, he goes to Browns and Win a OWL after 6-7 years. Meanwhile Pack can win 1-2 SB’s.. It satisfies your Math and good for Packers mathematically... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Just now, incognito_man said: 😂 Yikes man How can you possibly say with a straight face that McCarthy has a 42% chance of coming away with a second Super Bowl? Simply because he already has one? That's not how it works. Winning a Super Bowl before doesn't somehow increase the chances of you winning another Super Bowl, especially this far apart. The only HC who has won another Super Bowl this far apart is Bill Belichick. So what makes you think that McCarthy is going to bunk that trend? Short answer, there isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, CWood21 said: How can you possibly say with a straight face that McCarthy has a 42% chance of coming away with a second Super Bowl? Simply because he already has one? That's not how it works. Winning a Super Bowl before doesn't somehow increase the chances of you winning another Super Bowl, especially this far apart. The only HC who has won another Super Bowl this far apart is Bill Belichick. So what makes you think that McCarthy is going to bunk that trend? Short answer, there isn't. Historically, man. Stats don't apply to a single isntance. But you're failing to grasp the statistical point. And your error is one of more than an order of magnitude... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Historically, man. Stats don't apply to a single isntance. But you're failing to grasp the statistical point. And your error is one of more than an order of magnitude... And you continue to duck my question. I'll just move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNPackfan32 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, Gopackgonerd said: It's also kind of crazy that people are suggesting trading Rodgers when he has all that same success too with 2 MVPs ontop of it. But nah lets just give up on him, he can't fix it. Both have tons of blame this season. Exactly, like sometimes things just don't come together. Tomlin had back to back 8-8 years. Teams just don't have the sustained success that the Patriots do. After the Patriots it's us. We have been that consistent under Mac. Then the talent took a dive. This is probably the worst line we have had in 8-9 years. We are incredibly young at WR right now. I'm not saying we can't fire Mac. I am saying, be careful what you wish for. It is possible that now is the time to show faith in him. His teams don't quit. Say what you want about him being passive at times, or his playcalling at times. His teams fight. That's all I will say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 24 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Math fail. Re-read my post and try to get the coin flip analogy. Do you have better odds flipping 2 heads in three tries if you get a heads on the first flip or a tails on the first flip? You continue to argue the latter. It's nonsense. Historically speaking, MM has a 42% chance of being a multiple SB winning coach BECAUSE HE ALREADY HAS ONE (i.e he ALREADY flipped heads once). This is simple statistics, man. Even better for MMs argument is that good coaches win SBs. Bad coaches don't. Good coaches are more likely to win more. MM is clearly a good coach because he's ALREADY won. Please refrain from calling someone obtuse when you are completely whiffing on the elementary math involved. Are you sure you are linking to things that are not fundamentally related. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopackgonerd Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 7 minutes ago, MNPackfan32 said: Exactly, like sometimes things just don't come together. Tomlin had back to back 8-8 years. Teams just don't have the sustained success that the Patriots do. After the Patriots it's us. We have been that consistent under Mac. Then the talent took a dive. This is probably the worst line we have had in 8-9 years. We are incredibly young at WR right now. I'm not saying we can't fire Mac. I am saying, be careful what you wish for. It is possible that now is the time to show faith in him. His teams don't quit. Say what you want about him being passive at times, or his playcalling at times. His teams fight. That's all I will say. Yup, careful what you wish for on both ends. Also you kind of have to credit this team for many years that they get so far with such poor injury luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 minutes ago, squire12 said: Are you sure you are linking to things that are not fundamentally related. People see what they want to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopackgonerd Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 38 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Math fail. Re-read my post and try to get the coin flip analogy. Do you have better odds flipping 2 heads in three tries if you get a heads on the first flip or a tails on the first flip? You continue to argue the latter. It's nonsense. Historically speaking, MM has a 42% chance of being a multiple SB winning coach BECAUSE HE ALREADY HAS ONE (i.e he ALREADY flipped heads once). This is simple statistics, man. Even better for MMs argument is that good coaches win SBs. Bad coaches don't. Good coaches are more likely to win more. MM is clearly a good coach because he's ALREADY won. Please refrain from calling someone obtuse when you are completely whiffing on the elementary math involved. If he was a good coach we wouldn't be barely in the playoff race right now, we wouldn't have lost all our road games this year. If we go on a magical run again, sure we can still call him a good coach, but what if we keep losing? How much do we have to lose before it's time to move on? Even if you think it's Rodgers fault this year or not, realistically speaking Gute and Murph will want to move on if we keep losing. Everyones time runs out on a team, just because he won a super bowl doesn't mean he's still gonna be as good 8 years later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Packerraymond Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 hours ago, incognito_man said: Roster talent Most talented roster since 2014 to me. Clearly talent enough to win more than 4 out of 10 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 27 minutes ago, squire12 said: Are you sure you are linking to things that are not fundamentally related. Of course it's coupled. Good is defined by winning and winning makes you good. They are completely entangled, and understandly so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted November 17, 2018 Author Share Posted November 17, 2018 18 minutes ago, Packerraymond said: Most talented roster since 2014 to me. Clearly talent enough to win more than 4 out of 10 games. Eddie Lacy was better than Jones. Nelson was better than Adams. You'll fight me on this one, so let's settle on even. Adams was better than MVS. Cobb was better than Cobb. IOL was better. Tackles were eh, about the same. Matthews was better. Peppers was better than every pass rusher. Our secondary was more experienced. 2014 was wildly more talented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
incognito_man Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 38 minutes ago, CWood21 said: And you continue to duck my question. I'll just move on. Feel free to move on if you want, but there was no question to duck. You just are fundamentally NOT understanding the answer somehow. Let me try again...maybe with dice this time? Odds of rolling a 6 = 1/6. Odds of rolling two 6s in a row = 1/36 You are arguing that if you roll one 6, the odds of rolling another 6 are 1/36. This is the analog of your 2.x% of coaches winning multiple SBs. It's fundamentally wrong. I don't know how else to explain this. You can choose to continue to be wrong, I guess. The odds of a SB winning coaching winning another one is more than a full order of magnitude higher than a non-SB winning coach winning his first one... historically. Your math is wrong. I hope you figure this out sooner than later. So yeah, operating with the info we are all privy too, we should all prefer to roll with a coach who gives us more than 10x a better chance to win a SB. It's the most rational thing imaginable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted November 17, 2018 Share Posted November 17, 2018 12 minutes ago, incognito_man said: Of course it's coupled. Good is defined by winning and winning makes you good. They are completely entangled, and understandly so. What threshold do you want to use for winning percentage that makes a coach "good"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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