POST GAME GB at MIN week 12 (24-17 Loss, 4-6-1)

[vegas492]

17 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I didn't change the narrative whatsoever. You brought up the slump.

What is the slump you are perceiving? Is it not recent McCarthy?

Are we not comparing current McCarthy to Payton during their slump?

You know?  I"m going to give you this...I thought you were picking stats throughout all the years, concerning New Orleans.  I was looking at this slumping Mac versus the perceived slumping Payton.

And my argument is that the slump from Payton was defensive in nature.  Not offensive.  I think you would agree with that statement.

And where we differ is the opinion on the GB offense, today, and it's worth.  I'd maintain that our offense is worse now than anything Payton put on the field during his 7-9 seasons and as an offensive minded head coach, that tells me that the scheme needs to change, either via a new coach or an old coach bringing in a new coordinator with a different scheme.

I think you are using a different set of metrics to judge our offense, this year, as more than fine, closer to top tier.  On that, I disagree.  Our offense is bad.  And if it were up to a typical Mac standard, given our two defenses have similar rankings, I think our records would be similar.

[PACKRULE]

6 minutes ago, KFP7 said:

So is our bad 3rd down conversion rate the main reason our advanced metrics show a 6th ranked offense but our points/game seems so low?  It seems our overall play count per game is way lower than recent years.

Yeah we can't sustain drivers to save our lives. Watching our 3rd down attempts is like watching an toddler drive a Porsche.

[incognito_man]

4 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

No they are not wrong according to pro football reference.

2017 is obviously an outlier. 

Is it not the goal of the offense to score points? Outside of time killing drives every drive's goal is to score points. Points are the ultimate measure of a productive offense, to disregard that in favor of DVOA is just nonsense. Yards are less valuable if they don't end in points. 

You are probably looking at scoring which includes defensive and special teams scores. Accounting for only offensive scoring yields the ranks I provided.

DVOA includes points. And yards. And everything else. Including opponent.

So yeah, I'll take the metric that factors in your two measurements and a hundred more.

[incognito_man]

4 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

No they are not wrong according to pro football reference.

2017 is obviously an outlier. 

Is it not the goal of the offense to score points? Outside of time killing drives every drive's goal is to score points. Points are the ultimate measure of a productive offense, to disregard that in favor of DVOA is just nonsense. Yards are less valuable if they don't end in points. 

You are probably looking at scoring which includes defensive and special teams scores. Accounting for only offensive scoring yields the ranks I provided.

DVOA includes points. And yards. And everything else. Including opponent.

So yeah, I'll take the metric that factors in your two measurements and a hundred more.

[cannondale]

13 minutes ago, PACKRULE said:

Up until Bahk got hurt we've been ok we have 3 really good pieces and 2 ok guards. Is the SAint's line any better? The pats let their starting LT walk they are above .500. Lets not act like we can't work are way around the Oline's slight issues. Bahk came back last night too. Odd how our cobbled together Oline has it's starting LT, LG, C and RT from last year still starting? UP until Taylor got hurt last night also. I say that's BS not recoving from losing Sittun. Taylor has been fine, and our RB was AVG over 5 YPC was he not.

You don't go from perennial playoff team to 4-6-1 by accident. It all matters. IMO the dropoff has been huge

[TheBitzMan]

Just now, incognito_man said:

You are probably looking at scoring which includes defensive and special teams scores. Accounting for only offensive scoring yields the ranks I provided.

DVOA includes points. And yards. And everything else. Including opponent.

So yeah, I'll take the metric that factors in your two measurements and a hundred more.

You are right in that, I am an idiot.

I am a proponent of DVOA and think it has value, I just don't think that Payton's offense had this dip you are talking about and even if it did it is nowhere close to the valley we are currently in with McCarthy. 

[incognito_man]

6 minutes ago, PACKRULE said:

So if you continue to ignore our talent who is the so called fool?

How much is our roster worth? Is our QB not the highest paid player in the NFL. Brees is up there as well I believe, so what are you taking about? We have millions wrapped up in players and some dam good players. Why are we so void of talent? Please enlighten me? Why in a league that values QB's like no other position are we 4-6-1? Is it our lack of WR talent, RB talent, Oline talent? Again Brees had a game last week where he tossed 4 TD's to UFA's? Dam they have the best UFA's ever.

We have less talent because we've been good and have been drafting lower.

There. That was easy.

[PACKRULE]

Just now, cannondale said:

You don't go from perennial playoff team to 4-6-1 by accident. It all matters. IMO the dropoff has been huge

Agreed, but i think the writing has been on the wall for sometime. AS many pundits, posters, talking heads would acknowledge MM has been living off a great player for some time. I stuck with him when AR broke is collarbone the first time as he ran the ball and made it through. Last year was terrible a back up QB in our system for 3 years looked like a blind rookie. And this year again it's just poor offensive ball, poor situation ball, poor decisions by our coaches also. Dropped off a cliff like a guy who has reached the the edge with this team. Can't fire all the players so MM has to go, let someone else take the helm maybe that helps. If not we lose very little as AR only has so much time left and Gute will be looking to draft a replacement in the next few years.

[KingOfTheNorth]

After watching the past few weeks, one guy who has really jumped out at me is Antonio Morrison, and not in a good way. That guy needs to go, plain and simple. He is a Burfict wannabe with all his dirty hits. He is the poster boy for head hunting. I bet if Packers cut him, Gregg Williams would claim him in a heartbeat.

[Packerraymond]

18 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Ok. I will. It's vastly superior to raw numbers.

Why would you prefer to work with inferior metrics? Because they support what you want to believe?

17ths in 1st downs, 24th in 3rd down %, 30th in 4th down %, 26th in penalty yardage per game, 29th in sacks allowed, 21st in TOP, at one point we we're 32nd in average yards to go on 3rd down, 16th in PPG, 6th in DVOA.

Doesn't look superior to me.

[Green19]

I don’t think McCarthy is overly to blame for the offense struggles... I do blame him however not getting Rodgers on the same page.

I think the biggest enemy of this offense is Rodgers inability to conform to a scripted offense and taking what is there. I don’t know how many times I watch Rodgers hold onto the ball buying time for a big play and in doing so let a linebacker time to cover the short stuff that was open a second into the play.

I don’t inherently want McCarthy gone but I feel like it needs to happen to get Rodgers back and not just playing backyard football.

[cannondale]

1 minute ago, TheBitzMan said:

You are right in that, I am an idiot.

I am a proponent of DVOA and think it has value, I just don't think that Payton's offense had this dip you are talking about and even if it did it is nowhere close to the valley we are currently in with McCarthy. 

I'm not one for deep team by team comparisons, but we went from Jordy, Jennings, Jones, Driver to Adams and not much else. That's a dropoff of huge proportions. Again...roster talent

[Packerraymond]

23 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

we rose a good bit after posting big numbers vs their #1 ranked defense (seattle)

We have the 2nd ranked rushing offense and 8th ranked passing offense.  I think most are really underrating how great our run game has been this year.

14th in pts/drive, 1st in turnovers/drive (fewest), 21st in starting field position, 11th in yards/drive.

 

Heres the top 16 by weighted:

RK	TEAM	OFFENSE DVOA	LAST WEEK	WEI. OFFENSE ▴	RK	PASS OFF	RK	RUSH OFF	RK	NON-ADJ TOTAL	NON-ADJ PASS	NON-ADJ RUSH	VAR	RK	SCHED	RK
1	KC	39.5%	1	38.9%	1	74.7%	1	9.2%	5	36.2%	66.8%	12.1%	10.6%	27	-4.2%	3
2	LAR	31.3%	2	31.7%	2	48.1%	4	17.4%	1	31.7%	48.7%	17.7%	7.0%	18	-1.0%	15
3	NO	24.1%	4	25.7%	3	53.5%	2	0.3%	8	24.6%	53.6%	1.3%	2.3%	2	3.1%	24
4	LAC	22.4%	3	21.4%	4	50.4%	3	0.9%	7	25.5%	52.2%	5.5%	2.5%	4	0.5%	20
5	PIT	16.8%	5	18.4%	5	31.1%	6	-1.5%	11	16.8%	26.6%	6.0%	9.0%	24	1.7%	22
7	ATL	14.3%	6	16.1%	6	40.0%	5	-16.2%	26	17.7%	41.7%	-9.7%	10.6%	28	3.8%	27
6	GB	15.1%	8	15.5%	7	22.2%	8	14.4%	2	12.7%	17.7%	15.3%	2.0%	1	-2.8%	7
9	NE	9.9%	9	10.6%	8	22.9%	7	-1.0%	9	9.9%	23.7%	-1.9%	5.2%	12	-2.8%	6
8	CAR	10.1%	7	10.5%	9	18.4%	13	10.9%	4	17.3%	28.0%	15.4%	7.0%	19	6.7%	32
10	IND	6.8%	14	9.2%	10	19.0%	12	-3.3%	14	5.9%	17.3%	-3.1%	6.2%	17	-1.2%	13
12	CHI	5.7%	10	8.3%	11	19.6%	11	-1.1%	10	5.9%	21.3%	-2.4%	5.3%	14	0.3%	19
11	DEN	6.4%	13	7.7%	12	5.4%	20	12.3%	3	7.9%	4.8%	16.7%	2.4%	3	-1.1%	14
14	SEA	3.4%	11	4.7%	13	21.9%	9	1.6%	6	6.2%	29.4%	0.8%	4.2%	9	-0.6%	16
13	BAL	4.1%	12	3.3%	14	21.3%	10	-5.9%	17	-0.7%	13.4%	-6.8%	3.4%	7	-1.5%	12
15	TB	1.0%	15	-1.0%	15	17.2%	14	-14.8%	23	0.9%	15.4%	-12.2%	6.0%	15	1.6%	21
16	CIN	0.0%	16	-1.3%	16	10.6%	18	-4.9%	16	4.1%	17.1%	-4.4%	8.2%	22	4.2%	29

Those "numbers" were two Rodgers "make something out of nothing" bombs marred with the rest of the game filled with inconsistency and little production.

[cannondale]

5 minutes ago, PACKRULE said:

Agreed, but i think the writing has been on the wall for sometime. AS many pundits, posters, talking heads would acknowledge MM has been living off a great player for some time. I stuck with him when AR broke is collarbone the first time as he ran the ball and made it through. Last year was terrible a back up QB in our system for 3 years looked like a blind rookie. And this year again it's just poor offensive ball, poor situation ball, poor decisions by our coaches also. Dropped off a cliff like a guy who has reached the the edge with this team. Can't fire all the players so MM has to go, let someone else take the helm maybe that helps. If not we lose very little as AR only has so much time left and Gute will be looking to draft a replacement in the next few years.

I can't say you're wrong, but I still say it's lack of talent more than coaching

[incognito_man]

5 minutes ago, TheBitzMan said:

You are right in that, I am an idiot.

I am a proponent of DVOA and think it has value, I just don't think that Payton's offense had this dip you are talking about and even if it did it is nowhere close to the valley we are currently in with McCarthy. 

I think it's hard to detach recent MM with Rodgers and without. I think the disaster of an offense when Rodgers goes down is affecting our ability to rationally compare recent Rodgers+MM to old Payton because it's clouded by 2017.