2019 Draft: Targets

[G08]

Look at this run!

 

[Madmike90]

Ian Rapoport

@RapSheet

#Memphis RB Darrell Henderson has 3 teams – #Saints, #Jets, and #Titans – on campus today to work him out, I’m told. A rising prospect who could land at the top of the 2nd or even late 1st, his Pro Day was attended by RB coaches from #Eagles, #Giants, #Cowboys and #Ravens.

[AZBearsFan]

There’s a lot here to like. Shiftiness, burst, power, speed, tackle breaking, versatility. 

[soulman]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

There’s a lot here to like. Shiftiness, burst, power, speed, tackle breaking, versatility. 

Sorry brother but I don't see any of the burst and speed you do and he won't be able to shake and bake his way through NFL DLs like he does here. Put him on a lesser team than OSU and I don't think we'd be talking about him much at all.

What I do see is decent vision and decisiveness coupled with some tackle breaking ability at that level but what I don't see is anything special that would make him much more than a #3 type NFL back at best.  We should do better than this.

[AZBearsFan]

18 minutes ago, soulman said:

Sorry brother but I don't see any of the burst and speed you do and he won't be able to shake and bake his way through NFL DLs like he does here. Put him on a lesser team than OSU and I don't think we'd be talking about him much at all.

What I do see is decent vision and decisiveness coupled with some tackle breaking ability at that level but what I don't see is anything special that would make him much more than a #3 type NFL back at best.  We should do better than this.

When I watched that I was focusing on the games against the top tier teams full of NFL talent - OU, Michigan, MSU. It’s a highlight clip for sure, but he’s seldom brought down by the first guy. He didn’t have any problem getting the edge and turning the corner against largely NFL level players in those games. In the NFL those 8 yard runs are 4-5 and the 20 yarders are probably 10-15 most times, but I see productivity there at the next level. He’s not Sanders, Henderson or Montgomery but those guys are likely gone by 87, and he’s right there with the rest of the guys maybe there for us. 

[soulman]

42 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

When I watched that I was focusing on the games against the top tier teams full of NFL talent - OU, Michigan, MSU. It’s a highlight clip for sure, but he’s seldom brought down by the first guy. He didn’t have any problem getting the edge and turning the corner against largely NFL level players in those games. In the NFL those 8 yard runs are 4-5 and the 20 yarders are probably 10-15 most times, but I see productivity there at the next level. He’s not Sanders, Henderson or Montgomery but those guys are likely gone by 87, and he’s right there with the rest of the guys maybe there for us. 

As much of a Badger fan as I am I will maintain that no Big Ten team is stocked with NFL level talent.  They play more of a power game up there and it's why much faster SEC and ACC teams typically kick there *****.  Good OL and DL but with some exceptions less so with top tier skills players and other positions where top game speed is required.

Weber looks good against some lower level teams but mostly when he has a gap big enough for a semi he can accelerate through and he can get to the edge against some as well but come on.  Even poor NFL defenses are better than all of those in his highlight vid; Bowling Green, Tulsa, Indiana, NU, Rutgers, Maryland, MSU.  These are not ranked teams.

He's not really a power back and he's not really a speed back and he has the benefit of playing behind a great OL with a top ranked NCAA team.  Even then how well would he perform against Clemson or Alabama?  I just don't see anything special about him that would tell me he'll ever have much impact in the NFL beyond maybe a career #3 or #4 RB and ST guy.  IMHO he's a late round pick or an UDFA.

JMHO based on what I see.

[AZBearsFan]

31 minutes ago, soulman said:

As much of a Badger fan as I am I will maintain that no Big Ten team is stocked with NFL level talent.  They play more of a power game up there and it's why much faster SEC and ACC teams typically kick there *****.  Good OL and DL but with some exceptions less so with top tier skills players and other positions where top game speed is required.

Weber looks good against some lower level teams but mostly when he has a gap big enough for a semi he can accelerate through and he can get to the edge against some as well but come on.  Even poor NFL defenses are better than all of those in his highlight vid; Bowling Green, Tulsa, Indiana, NU, Rutgers, Maryland, MSU.  These are not ranked teams.

He's not really a power back and he's not really a speed back and he has the benefit of playing behind a great OL with a top ranked NCAA team.  Even then how well would he perform against Clemson or Alabama?  I just don't see anything special about him that would tell me he'll ever have much impact in the NFL beyond maybe a career #3 or #4 RB and ST guy.  IMHO he's a late round pick or an UDFA.

JMHO based on what I see.

Well you still think Howard is good, so... 😂😂 I kid, I kid.

I don’t disagree that Weber doesn’t have any one thing on which to hang his hat but he also doesn’t have any area where he’s deficient either. I think he’s just a solid, well rounded back which in the mid rounds is what I would expect to get. If you look at the draft profiles and college tape for most mid round picks both those who excelled in the NFL and those that didn’t they will be pretty similar to that of Weber IMO.

I’ve been consistent with my thoughts that Nagy targets traits in his backs and I think Weber possesses a lot of those similar to other Nagy/Reid backs even if he’s not elite at any one thing. I also found it noteworthy that the workout tape we all saw with Weber a few weeks back was from a workout being conducted by Mike Furrey. What I took from that was that they want to know what he can do beyond dump offs and screens in the passing game since OSU doesn’t really use their RBs for much other than that in the passing game. Hunt was used on wheel and seam routes in KC, and that I’m sure is something Nagy would like to incorporate into our offense without it having to be with Cohen. 

[soulman]

23 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Well you still think Howard is good, so... 😂😂 I kid, I kid.

I don’t disagree that Weber doesn’t have any one thing on which to hang his hat but he also doesn’t have any area where he’s deficient either. I think he’s just a solid, well rounded back which in the mid rounds is what I would expect to get. If you look at the draft profiles and college tape for most mid round picks both those who excelled in the NFL and those that didn’t they will be pretty similar to that of Weber IMO.

I’ve been consistent with my thoughts that Nagy targets traits in his backs and I think Weber possesses a lot of those similar to other Nagy/Reid backs even if he’s not elite at any one thing. I also found it noteworthy that the workout tape we all saw with Weber a few weeks back was from a workout being conducted by Mike Furrey. What I took from that was that they want to know what he can do beyond dump offs and screens in the passing game since OSU doesn’t really use their RBs for much other than that in the passing game. Hunt was used on wheel and seam routes in KC, and that I’m sure is something Nagy would like to incorporate into our offense without it having to be with Cohen. 

It's not that I think Howard is so good as it is I don't see much of anything in Weber that tells me he'll be better or even as good.  He lacks Howard's size and power and despite his 4.5/40 at the Combine I don't see any game breaking speed.  He's not running away from even slower DBs every game so it's all track speed.  On top of that Howard rated much higher in his draft than Weber is rated now.

I watch RBs a lot trying to pick up on what makes that back productive as a runner in an NFL offense and my gut reactions about Weber is exactly what I posted.  He's nothing special and a back I see as a late round pick or UDFA, no more, no less.  I would not draft him at all but if he went undrafted I might sign him as a priority UDFA to compete.  But he's not Jordan Howard's replacement IMHO he's a Ka'Deem Carey.

[AZBearsFan]

1 minute ago, soulman said:

It's not that I think Howard is so good as it is I don't see much of anything in Weber that tells me he'll be better or even as good.  He lacks Howard's size and power and despite his 4.5/40 at the Combine I don't see any game breaking speed.  He's not running away from even slower DBs every game so it's all track speed.  On top of that Howard rated much higher in his draft than Weber is rated now.

I watch RBs a lot trying to pick up on what makes that back productive as a runner in an NFL offense and my gut reactions about Weber is exactly what I posted.  He's nothing special and a back I see as a late round pick or UDFA, no more, no less.  I would not draft him at all but if he went undrafted I might sign him as a priority UDFA to compete.  But he's not Jordan Howard's replacement IMHO he's a Ka'Deem Carey.

I don’t think Nagy necessarily is looking for a “Jordan Howard replacement”. I think he’s looking to have 2 RBs with diverse skill sets capable of splitting 300-350 touches in addition to Cohen’s RB touches, and if one asserts himself as a lead dog from that then so be it. Davis is one of those guys at least for 2019. I think Weber could potentially be the other. Also I strongly disliked Ka’Deem Carey. I’m sure it had NOTHING to do with me being an ASU alum and him playing his college ball for that other school in Arizona. 

[malagabears]

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/Texans-to-work-out-Toledo-corner-Ka-dar-Hollman-13727862.php?utm_campaign=CMS Sharing Tools (Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

Toledo cornerback Ka'dar Hollman has a private workout for the Texans, according to a league source not authorized to speak publicly.

Hollman also has visits and workouts scheduled with the Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns.

Not invited to the NFL scouting combine, the 6-foot, 190-pounder ran the 40-yard dash in 4.37 seconds at his Pro Day and had a 39-inch vertical leap.

A three-year starter for the Rockets, Hollman finished his career with 112 tackles, 27 pass breakups and two interceptions.

[soulman]

30 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think Nagy necessarily is looking for a “Jordan Howard replacement”. I think he’s looking to have 2 RBs with diverse skill sets capable of splitting 300-350 touches in addition to Cohen’s RB touches, and if one asserts himself as a lead dog from that then so be it. Davis is one of those guys at least for 2019. I think Weber could potentially be the other. Also I strongly disliked Ka’Deem Carey. I’m sure it had NOTHING to do with me being an ASU alum and him playing his college ball for that other school in Arizona. 

Production brother, production.

Like it or not Howard is a back who averaged over 1300 total yards and 4.6 ypt over 3 seasons.  Even if we toss out his rookie year on a 3-13 team as the outlier he still averaged over 1150 yds per year, 4.1 ypt, and 18 tds his last two seasons.

We know his skill set wasn't the best fit for Nagy but despite that Howard accomplished that much on one team who went 5-11 and another that went 12-4 but struggled running the ball all season long.  Was that on Howard or Nagy?  We don't know.

I surely hope we have two RBs other than Cohen who can do even better than Howard's numbers or that trade is gonna look really bad.

As for Carey I always felt he was better than he was ever given a chance to be and in that sense he reminded me of our own Adrian Peterson but regardless neither made much of an impact other than ST and I'll betcha another fiver Weber won't either.    LOL

But I've already agreed that if Davis and Cohen are seen as back #1 and #2 we were not gonna pay Howard $2 mil as back #3 and I question whether or not Pace is willing to pay that to any other vet RB either.  If that's the case he needs to hit above average in drafting one whose better than Weber.JMHO

[AZBearsFan]

29 minutes ago, soulman said:

Like it or not Howard is a back who averaged over 1300 total yards and 4.6 ypt over 3 seasons.  Even if we toss out his rookie year on a 3-13 team as the outlier he still averaged over 1150 yds per year, 4.1 ypt, and 18 tds his last two seasons.

Between Davis (728 yards on 146 touches) and Patterson (228 yards on 42 rush attempts) that’s already 956 yards on 188 touches (82 less than 2018 Howard) at 5.1 ypt with 6 TD in 2018. I left out CP’s receiving stuff because I don’t know if it came when lined up as a RB and I wanted as close to an equal comparison as I could make. Even at 80% of that rate of production going forward (which would be disappointing to everyone) they’re still right at that Howard 4.1 ypt you referenced from the past 2 years.

I don’t think we NEED a rookie to come in and be a stud in 2019. I think with our FA living up to their 2018 production we NEED a rookie to be able to give us effective touches when called upon. Anything beyond that should be seen as a bonus, and given that we’re talking about a mid or late round prospect, for us to go into the season expecting more from the rookie is setting ourselves up for disappointment.

I think the expectations for 2019 need to fall more heavily upon Davis and Patterson. I think going in that Nagy is probably expecting 200 touches from Davis at his 2018 efficiency and maybe a bit more than that, and that if a rookie is able to cut into that then that’s because he’s earned the reps. Davis is Nagy’s hand selected guy here and just because he came via FA and doesn’t have a huge NFL resume doesn’t mean we should discount that. He was targeted over both Ingram and Coleman. I don’t think the significance of that should be dismissed. 

[soulman]

How this for a mock; https://dawindycity.com/2019/03/30/chicago-bears-2019-nfl-mock-draft/

Only I think this kid has access to better weed than I do because I'd love those first two picks if they seemed more than highly unlikely.

Round Two: The Browns take our 2020 2nd and 5th for their 2019 2nd (#49) and we take OLB/Edge Chase Winovich. (why would Cleve. do that?)

Round Three:  Then we get lucky as all hell and Darrell Henderson drops to us at #87 (I wish)

Round Four: We draft another player (SS) with a name no one can pronounce so he'll need nickname too.(are we the United Nations or NFL?)

Round Five: A 'Bama OL with name that Tony Medlin will have to fit onto the back of a jersey (couldn't find a Smith or a Jones?)

Round Seven:  Yeah.....Caleb Wilson a TE, but if he's any good why is he still on the board (no better than the last Caleb we had?)

Round Seven: At last a PK but why another SEC PK whose been kicking in warm weather and little wind his entire career. (Cody Parkey v2.0?)

[soulman]

20 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

Between Davis (728 yards on 146 touches) and Patterson (228 yards on 42 rush attempts) that’s already 956 yards on 188 touches (82 less than 2018 Howard) at 5.1 ypt with 6 TD in 2018. I left out CP’s receiving stuff because I don’t know if it came when lined up as a RB and I wanted as close to an equal comparison as I could make. Even at 80% of that rate of production going forward (which would be disappointing to everyone) they’re still right at that Howard 4.1 ypt you referenced from the past 2 years.

I don’t think we NEED a rookie to come in and be a stud in 2019. I think with our FA living up to their 2018 production we NEED a rookie to be able to give us effective touches when called upon. Anything beyond that should be seen as a bonus, and given that we’re talking about a mid or late round prospect, for us to go into the season expecting more from the rookie is setting ourselves up for disappointment.

I think the expectations for 2019 need to fall more heavily upon Davis and Patterson. I think going in that Nagy is probably expecting 200 touches from Davis at his 2018 efficiency and maybe a bit more than that, and that if a rookie is able to cut into that then that’s because he’s earned the reps. Davis is Nagy’s hand selected guy here and just because he came via FA and doesn’t have a huge NFL resume doesn’t mean we should discount that. He was targeted over both Ingram and Coleman. I don’t think the significance of that should be dismissed. 

Davis I can buy as one half of a RBBC duo but not Patterson.  He and Cohen are our tactical weapons on offense.

If Davis can handle the power side in place of Howard then I think a faster back like Cohen but bigger should be his partner.  The only problem with this is what if Davis is injured?   In that case it had better be one of the better mid round backs like Henderson or more of another grinder like Harris who could handle it alone.

To be honest my feeling is if you're gonna do a RBBC like KC has done we need two strong backs in addition to Cohen to take us through the season and if Pace won't pay for a vet  #1a like Ware for example then he should make damn sure he drafts a quality RB who can start in a rotation in 2019.

Mike Davis has never been a 16 game starter so we don't know how well he'll hold up over 16 games a feature back in a rotation and we can't look to Cohen or Patterson to replace him in that role.  That's not their game.

Trust me, I'm not the alone one who sees the huge hole Howard's departure has created.  The media is all over it and looking to Pace to pull yet another mid round RB bunny out of his bonnet.  It's all about "In Pace We Trust" now.

[beardown3231]

1 hour ago, soulman said:

How this for a mock; https://dawindycity.com/2019/03/30/chicago-bears-2019-nfl-mock-draft/

Only I think this kid has access to better weed than I do because I'd love those first two picks if they seemed more than highly unlikely.

Round Two: The Browns take our 2020 2nd and 5th for their 2019 2nd (#49) and we take OLB/Edge Chase Winovich. (why would Cleve. do that?)

Round Three:  Then we get lucky as all hell and Darrell Henderson drops to us at #87 (I wish)

Round Four: We draft another player (SS) with a name no one can pronounce so he'll need nickname too.(are we the United Nations or NFL?)

Round Five: A 'Bama OL with name that Tony Medlin will have to fit onto the back of a jersey (couldn't find a Smith or a Jones?)

Round Seven:  Yeah.....Caleb Wilson a TE, but if he's any good why is he still on the board (no better than the last Caleb we had?)

Round Seven: At last a PK but why another SEC PK whose been kicking in warm weather and little wind his entire career. (Cody Parkey v2.0?)

I'd need to change my pants if they took Winovich. I love that guy.

No matter who they take in round 7, they probably won't be any good.

The whole "I hope the PK is from a cold weather city" thing it's a little overrated. Gostkowski grew up in Mississippi and went to school at Memphis. Prater went to a school in Florida but had no issues in Denver. Tucker grew up in Texas and went to UT yet has had a great career in a cold weather city.