2019 Draft: Targets

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think you draft a real TE for 2 reasons

1. Shaheen continues to struggle to stay healthy and produce in the passing game and you have another option.

2. Lets say best case scenario both the draft pick and Shaheen play really well. Maybe you can say goodbye to Burton and his 8 million salary in 2020 or 2021?

I don’t discount that they could and maybe even should add a TE. I just don’t think it’ll be in round 3 or 4. On one hand relying on Shaheen as your #2 TE does have some inherent risk but on the other if he and Burton are both healthy there’s a reasonable chance any newly added TE isn’t even dressing on game day in 2019 since Braunecker is an adequate #3. This draft is also REALLY deep at TE, and we should be able to get a solid long term prospect at the bottom of the draft, especially if we are looking for a guy to develop into a prominent role rather than step into one right away. 

Even in a draft where we are essentially coming in looking to bolster depth and future needs #3 TE is not at the top of the list for me - it’s behind Edge, CB, S, OG and RB. 

[dll2000]

4 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t discount that they could and maybe even should add a TE. I just don’t think it’ll be in round 3 or 4. On one hand relying on Shaheen as your #2 TE does have some inherent risk but on the other if he and Burton are both healthy there’s a reasonable chance any newly added TE isn’t even dressing on game day in 2019 since Braunecker is an adequate #3. This draft is also REALLY deep at TE, and we should be able to get a solid long term prospect at the bottom of the draft, especially if we are looking for a guy to develop into a prominent role rather than step into one right away. 

Even in a draft where we are essentially coming in looking to bolster depth and future needs #3 TE is not at the top of the list for me - it’s behind Edge, CB, S, OG and RB. 

Excellent points.  

I am torn on it. I have been pounding drum all year that Shaheen was the man in camp and offense was clicking in Denver practices with him and Burton 100%

Then he got hurt and wasn't same when he came back in season.

I think Braunecker doesn't suck, but doesn't bother opponents either. 

I would be okay if they spent a high pick on high potential TE because he can replace Shaheen if he doesnt stay healthy or Burton to save some money down the line. 

I think regardless odds of Shaheen and Burton playing every snap in 2019 is pretty slim so another good player would be welcome. 

To me TE is a bigger need than RB.

 

[soulman]

Seems to me Pace may have to make some tough choices in this draft unless he has more additions he plans to make in FA.

On defense we have needs at SS, CB, and OLB

On offense we have needs at RB, TE, and OL.

We have only 3 mid round picks and two 7ths one of which we may need to use on a PK.  So which positions will he prioritize?

I think overall we're in good enough shape that if I'm making the picks when my turn comes in rounds 3-5 I'd take the highest ranked player on my board at any one of those positions and deal with the rest by signing some priority UDFA.  Even that may be tougher now since most would prefer to sign where there are more openings and they have a better shot at making a roster.

Realistically restocking all of these positions with some younger talent make take two drafts to accomplish so I'd stay focused on those where the depth of talent is best this year and may not be as great next year.

For example take a DB/SS and TE/OL or OLB over a RB now and use one of our higher picks on a RB next year.

We managed with Howard, Cohen and scraps last year and even without Howard, should it come to that, we can probably manage with Davis, Cohen and a late round rookie or UDFA because we'll have Patterson and we still have Nall and Mizzell.

[abstract_thought]

10 hours ago, soulman said:

Seems to me Pace may have to make some tough choices in this draft unless he has more additions he plans to make in FA.

On defense we have needs at SS, CB, and OLB

On offense we have needs at RB, TE, and OL.

We have only 3 mid round picks and two 7ths one of which we may need to use on a PK.  So which positions will he prioritize?

I think overall we're in good enough shape that if I'm making the picks when my turn comes in rounds 3-5 I'd take the highest ranked player on my board at any one of those positions and deal with the rest by signing some priority UDFA.  Even that may be tougher now since most would prefer to sign where there are more openings and they have a better shot at making a roster.

Realistically restocking all of these positions with some younger talent make take two drafts to accomplish so I'd stay focused on those where the depth of talent is best this year and may not be as great next year.

For example take a DB/SS and TE/OL or OLB over a RB now and use one of our higher picks on a RB next year.

We managed with Howard, Cohen and scraps last year and even without Howard, should it come to that, we can probably manage with Davis, Cohen and a late round rookie or UDFA because we'll have Patterson and we still have Nall and Mizzell.

I've said this before, but good teams need to draft more for overall talent than to fill needs. The Bears will lose many players to the salary cap and have limited resources to improve their depth. Pace's goal should be to bring in the next wave of talented players to make sure the roster keeps pace with the rest of the league.

[dll2000]

7 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I've said this before, but good teams need to draft more for overall talent than to fill needs. The Bears will lose many players to the salary cap and have limited resources to improve their depth. Pace's goal should be to bring in the next wave of talented players to make sure the roster keeps pace with the rest of the league.

BPA baby.  Everyone says it, few do it. 

[WindyCity]

43 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

BPA baby.  Everyone says it, few do it. 

No one actually does it.

Need is an equal factor in drafting. In the NFL talent allows you to keep your job as a GM, but crippling holes get your fired.

[soulman]

One thing that obviously helps is going into the draft with as few immediate needs as possible especially when you lack your 1st and 2nd round picks and are picking late in each round.

The only base that hasn't been covered yet is OLB/Edge and I still believe it will be once one of Pace's targets is willing to agree to his terms.  Prices aren't going up so it may come down to location.

We can use competition and depth at a number of spots but realistically the only pick who might have a shot at making meaningful contributions would be a RB and a PK if we draft one.

With that situation Pace should be able to take the best player on his board at any of the positions I posted before; SS/DB, RB, TE, OL or even an OLB. We can use young talent at any of them.

[dll2000]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

No one actually does it.

Need is an equal factor in drafting. In the NFL talent allows you to keep your job as a GM, but crippling holes get your fired.

I wouldn't say it is equal.

Sometimes it leans one way and sometimes the other.  Depends on how desperate the need is and who is doing the drafting.

BPA is the goal for Pace and he has stated so, but sometimes you have to do what you have to do.  Impact players make much more of a difference than need filling.  He wants to fill needs in FA and draft BPA.  Sometimes that isn't feasible.  He has also stated that he feels he can draft a lot better when he has freedom to draft BPA.

I also listened to guys on a Dallas Cowboys draft show one year predict about 75% of the picks as they came up in first two to three rounds just by looking at who was still on the board and looking at their team needs.

Some guys go in other direction.  GB drafted 3 WRs last year.  Carolina drafted 3 corners one year to replace Norman.  Baltimore will draft 3 edge players in same draft.

They are playing odds that at least one will hit out of three they like.

 

 

[abstract_thought]

When you're planning a Super Bowl run, you shouldn't be counting on rookies to play major roles. The Bears would do better to draft a WR who turns into a stud in 2 years than to draft a mediocre RB who will end up in a carry share with Davis and Cohen.

I'm not saying you ignore need, but when you have limited picks and you're clearly going to lose players in the next few years, it makes sense to take chances on luxury picks who can extend your talent advantage. The Bears would be better off with a stud WR or TE than with an average RB.

[Madmike90]

Consensus at Iowa State's pro day put Montgomery in the low 4.5 range on the handhelds.

[WindyCity]

2 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

Consensus at Iowa State's pro day put Montgomery in the low 4.5 range on the handhelds.

The improved 40 is nice, but it does not really answer why he produced so few explosive plays. It also means he is now, with some Pro Day home cooking, as fast as Jordan Howard.

-0 non redzone TDs.

-2 30+ yard runs all season

-9 20 yards runs on the season

That is too similar to Jordan Howard for me. I am not really interested in spending a pick on replacing Howard with someone who profile so similarly.

[WindyCity]

I think when they look at RBs we need to ask ourselves do they add a dynamic element to the offense.

If they wanted a between the tackles grinder, then they should keep Howard for 2019.

Based on Production

Darrell Henderson

Trayveon Williams

Devine Ozigbo

Dexter Williams

Based on Profile

Miles Sanders

Damien Harris

 

[dll2000]

19 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

The improved 40 is nice, but it does not really answer why he produced so few explosive plays. It also means he is now, with some Pro Day home cooking, as fast as Jordan Howard.

-0 non redzone TDs.

-2 30+ yard runs all season

-9 20 yards runs on the season

That is too similar to Jordan Howard for me. I am not really interested in spending a pick on replacing Howard with someone who profile so similarly.

Sometimes 40 yards is a bit downhill and a little shy of 40 LOL.

I pay little attention to 40s.  Some guys have legit superfast 40s and play slow. Some guys have legit slow 40s and have explosive play after explosive play.

Its all different with pads on grass and people around you. It isn't track. 

If you can out run NFL LBs you are fast. 

If you can out run a safety you are real fast.  

If you can out run corners, not beat on a move, outrun, you are elite.

If you can't out run the DL you are slow. 

Basically my rule of thumb for NFL speed offensively.

Some guys, like Rice, can do it without track speed again and again. 

[soulman]

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I think when they look at RBs we need to ask ourselves do they add a dynamic element to the offense.

If they wanted a between the tackles grinder, then they should keep Howard for 2019.

Based on Production

Darrell Henderson

Trayveon Williams

Devine Ozigbo

Dexter Williams

Based on Profile

Miles Sanders

Damien Harris

 

I more or less agree on Montgomery and probably more than less.

Although it would appear that Davis was signed to be a supplemental back if Howard is traded that's no longer the case.  Then IMHO he becomes Howard's replacement if only because he shares many of the same traits and a few more Howard where hasn't been as effective.

So with or without Howard it seems to me Montgomery isn't the fit Pace and Nagy are looking for now.

As for the list I would think Sanders and/or Harris are both guys you'd see as becoming your lead back type guy relegating Davis to a supplemental role.

Conversely Henderson and the others under that heading are more guys you'd see in the supplemental role with Davis being more of the between the tackles grinder.  Here's Nagy's recent take on Davis and I would interpret it to say he's not certain yet exactly how Davis will be used only that he has a skill set he values.

“I thought he had really good vision,” Nagy said. “He was a guy that can make you miss between the tackles. He has that in him. We liked that. We thought that would be a good addition to our side of the ball on offense. We’re intrigued to get him in and start learning who he is as a person. From all the research we did on him, we thought it was a great fit.”

[WindyCity]

Biggs was on the radio with Mully and Haugh and said that he sees the RB spot being Davis, Cohen and a draft pick.

Howard would either be traded or possibly released.