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Evaluating Gutenkunst's first year


James Lofton

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On 1/18/2019 at 2:56 PM, Spartacus said:

Traded -- Damarious Randall to Browns for QB DeShone Kizer (and swapped 4th and 5th rough picks) - My least favorite decision  of the year. We are in dire straights at safety and we let a potential prob bowl safety go for peanuts. - D

I know we're doing this evaluation in hindsight, but there was no way he was coming back to Green Bay.  The leadership council (or whatever they call it) made it clear that he was part of the problem.

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5 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Getting zero value for him is a negative.

I think that's a legitimate issue to have, but it goes back to your evaluation of Kizer.  If you thought he had potential as a starting QB, that probably was the best offer you could get for him.  Maybe you could find a team who liked him to give up a Late Day 2 pick, but more likely you're looking at a Day 2 pick at best.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

I know we're doing this evaluation in hindsight, but there was no way he was coming back to Green Bay.  The leadership council (or whatever they call it) made it clear that he was part of the problem.

Yea I get it but obviously that wasn't the problem. The problem is this team is lacking talent and we downgraded with that trade. 

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Just now, Spartacus said:

Yea I get it but obviously that wasn't the problem. The problem is this team is lacking talent and we downgraded with that trade. 

He was a cancer.  He quit on the team in the middle of the game.  I don't care how talented he is, he lost the locker room and the coaching staff.  It's hard to get that back.

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47 minutes ago, {Family Ghost} said:

One guy played the whole season and the other was on the shelf for most of the year.  

but that doesn't impact the grade of the decision to make the signing.

it's like giving Thompson an F for the decision to pay Rodgers $18 million or whatever last year because he got hurt.

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Cut: Jordy [Grade: D+] Weight: 1 (normal)
One of him or Cobb had to go after extending Adams. Necessary move, but outside Week 1 performances, we cut the wrong guy there IMO. 

Signed: Graham [B-] Weight: 1
He did not blow anyone away, but production was Top-10 at position, even with half of one hand broken for the last few weeks. We also would have probably have been abysmal (like, league-worst) at the position without him.

Singed: Wilk [A-] Weight: 1
It was a sensible deal and the injury does not detract from it much because it was cheap anyway

Signed: Lewis [D] Weight: 0.5
Amounted to practically nothing even for the modest amount we paid, but I do not penalize this move too harshly, because this could have easily been the fault of that oversize man-baby of a head coach we had this past season being too dumb and/or stubborn to make use of him where an actually competent one might have.

Signed: Tramon [D+] Weight: 1
It was not a favorable market for a position where we had a huge need, iirc. Still, he was mediocre in both positions he played for us.

Trade: Randall for Kizer and moderately higher picks [F] Weight: 1
Even without Randall's good play for CLE, we saw that the guy was improving here. We sent that away for a QB that would end up being a downgrade at QB2, which nullifies any gain from moving up slightly in the mids. I gave some thought to leniency because this move may have been driven by our fool previous Head Coach, but no. Tell him to get ****ed rather than making this terrible move to please him.

Trade: Pipkins for Morrison [B-] Weight: 1
Pipkins was likely a cut, did not even make a more CB-needy team. Morrison filled the Ryan role okay for us, even looked solid in the last couple weeks. Solid move, nothing stellar, but made the team better.

Extension: Rodgers [INC] Weight: 0
Mike McCarthy. An okay season by any other QB's standards. Argument to be made that we should have canned him last year, but unfortunately, he earned a second chance based on past success. Not Gute's call to make, either.

Trade: Haha for a 4th [C+] Weight: 1
Value was okay (C/average grade), and good chance we let him walk anyway so we get said value early (+), but we had some use for him yet that was not filled adequately with what we had (slight --).

Trade: Monty for a flier DP [B-] Weight: 1
Failure to get anything out of a player with nice talent is strike against the coach, not him. He salvaged something from this bad situation, albeit nothing spectacular here.

Sign: Breeland [A-] Weight: 1
This was more what we needed than Tramon. He had some lowlights, but was overall a big help for our CB corps when he was able to play.

Draft: [C/INC] Weight: 0.
Some guys look like keepers now (Jaire, MVS, EQ) and others have been meh or invisible (the rest), but a lot could change -- in either direction -- so it just feels too early to judge for me.

So, his present (subject to change) GPA comes out to 2.27, which amounts to a C/C+ borderline average (for reference, C+ = 2.3).

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Too early to tell.

From a pre draft standpoint

All of the pre draft moves were pretty meh. No major flop, nothing that helped. Any gm would pay AR so I can’t give credit for that. C

 

Draft

His draft I’d give an incomplete to. It looks like we for sure got one player in Alexander who will be an impact player for the foreseeable future. Getting the extra one was nice. It is nice knowing this isn’t a 2017 or 15 debacle right away.

The rest as most drafts is really a mixed bag. Jackson really struggled and might need to play safety.  MVS and ESB had numbers because they were forced to play but really weren’t good (graded as low end wr 3s). I think mvs might be a player but I need to see more. Burks didn’t see the field (injured early, but if you watched his college tape, you’d question if he could play). A punter, ls, a 4th round bust at wr and a ol who didn’t come to camp.... basically lots of questions.

Based on history, I think we get 0-2 second contract guys (non sts) from the 2nd and later picks.

In 2021 this will probably be a c+ to A draft (My rule of thumb 2 high end players or 3 second contract starters = A).

 

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Just now, pacman5252 said:

He wasn’t terrible. He was a replacement  level player on a team with no rush. Him vs Brice was night and day

I think objectively he was actually terrible. As a relative benchmark, he ranked at the #68 safety this year.

It would be different if he was forced into the safety role and played like the worst #1 safety in the league. That would be reasonable.

The 68th highest safety cap hit in 2018 was Adrian Phillips at $1.5 million. He was ranked as the #59 safety by PFF. Average signing.

Tramon was paid as the 29th highest cap hit safety in 2018 (or 41st for CBs). He would have ranked around 70-75 for CBs with his score this year as well.

He's the easiest cut this offseason and was definitely bad value for his paycheck.

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5 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I think objectively he was actually terrible. As a relative benchmark, he ranked at the #68 safety this year.

It would be different if he was forced into the safety role and played like the worst #1 safety in the league. That would be reasonable.

 

Few rebuttals 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.packersnews.com/amp/1850685002

He was forced to play safety

Pff grades more than just starters (t Lancaster is a top 35 dl per them). You have to qualify based on snaps. Williams was labeled average with a 63. I’m not calling him good, but you can live with a few average player at spots. You can’t live with many guys like

Brice 51

B Bell 47

perry 53

 

Yeah maybe he made more than a lot of first contract guys at the position but we also didn’t have a suitable cheap first contract option. Ours in Jones might be a bust

 

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6 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

Few rebuttals 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.packersnews.com/amp/1850685002

He was forced to play safety

Pff grades more than just starters (t Lancaster is a top 35 dl per them). You have to qualify based on snaps. Williams was labeled average with a 63. I’m not calling him good, but you can live with a few average player at spots. You can’t live with many guys like

Brice 51

B Bell 47

perry 53

 

Yeah maybe he made more than a lot of first contract guys at the position but we also didn’t have a suitable cheap first contract option. Ours in Jones might be a bust

 

I know he was forced to play safety. I actually said that in the part you quoted.

He still was bad. He was worse than average. On average, every team in the league had 2 safeties better than him, and 2.5 CBs better than him. And he was paid to be much better than that.

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1 hour ago, incognito_man said:

I know he was forced to play safety. I actually said that in the part you quoted.

He still was bad. He was worse than average. On average, every team in the league had 2 safeties better than him, and 2.5 CBs better than him. And he was paid to be much better than that.

Was he?

Much like Graham, I feel like Tramon was an "average" Free Agent signing. He's old, declining, and expensive. Welcome to Free Agency.

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Just now, AlexGreen#20 said:

Was he?

Much like Graham, I feel like Tramon was an "average" Free Agent signing. He's old, declining, and expensive. Welcome to Free Agency.

I bet those are both easily in the bottom half of play-for-pay among 2018 FAs.

Sounds like a tedious exercise to go look at this, but yes, he was bad.

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5 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Was he?

Much like Graham, I feel like Tramon was an "average" Free Agent signing. He's old, declining, and expensive. Welcome to Free Agency.

He was a stop gap that lacked much stop and was all gap.

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