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Super Bowl LIII: New England Patriots (11-5) vs St. Louis Rams (13-3)

Elky

By Elky
in New England Patriots

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IheartMyV8

IheartMyV8

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1 minute ago, 1ForTheThumb said:

at least you have a V8 and Tom Brady has as many Super Bowls as the entire Steelers franchise.

The wife had to drive it home from the SB party last night.  She was gunning it a bit and grinning while my drunken self was whooping it up over the win.

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vike daddy

vike daddy

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congrats, guys!

i was at a SB party yesterday of about a dozen people and i was the ONLY one rooting for the Patriots. many a disappointed peeps once Goff threw that pass that i could have intercepted.

 

 

i also guessed before the game was over that MVP would go to Edelman, but it really should have gone to Belichick. holding that offense to 3 points? masterful.

 

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Uncle Buck

Uncle Buck

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Congratulations Pats fans on another season of excellence from your great franchise.  Super Bowl Championship #6.  That's incredible!  Here I am hoping that after almost 50 years of being a fan of the Vikings, my team can eventually win even one.  You guys are amazing.

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vike daddy

vike daddy

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Patriots backup quarterback Brian Hoyer was the only active player who didn’t get on the field for New England in Super Bowl LIII. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t help the Patriots win.

In fact, Patriots defensive back Devin McCourty said after the game that Hoyer was a major part of the victory. McCourty said Hoyer did a great job of running the scout team, doing the things Jared Goff does to help the Patriots’ defense get ready. McCourty said Hoyer has been doing it all season, studying Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes, Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson and others to mimic the way they play the game while facing the Patriots’ starting defense.

“He deserves a lot of credit for the way our defense has played in big games,” McCourty told Tyler Dunne of Bleacher Report.

McCourty said the interception Stephon Gilmore got came on a play that Hoyer had run, as Goff, and that the Patriots were ready for it because Hoyer got them ready. Hoyer earned his Super Bowl ring, even if he didn’t get on the field.

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/02/04/patriots-defense-credits-brian-hoyer-for-scout-team-preparation/

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AlNFL19

AlNFL19

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Alright it's the Super Bowl, you know I had to check it out with my WAR model. Here's all the charts from the Patriots' epic 13-3 defensive beatdown of the Rams.

WAR New England Los Angeles
Total WAR +0.26 -0.43
Offense WAR -0.12 -0.50
Defense WAR +0.38 +0.09
ST WAR 0.00 -0.02
Pass O WAR -0.21 -0.35
Rush O WAR +0.09 -0.15
Pass D WAR +0.26 +0.16
Rush D WAR +0.12 -0.07
Win Chance* 72.65% 27.35%

*Win chance is the percent chance that Team X would win if both teams played at the same level that they did.

The Pats wiped the floor here, winning every single WAR category over the Rams. It wasn't pretty (unless you like defense), but it was a hell of a job by Flores' crew.

New England Patriots WAR Report
Patriots Passing WAR Leaders
QB Tom Brady -0.21
Patriots Rushing WAR Leaders
RB Sony Michel +0.21
RB Rex Burkhead -0.03
WR Julian Edelman 0.00
WR Cordarrelle Patterson -0.02
RB James White -0.03
QB Tom Brady -0.04
Patriots Receiving WAR Leaders
WR Julian Edelman +0.06
TE Rob Gronkowski +0.03
RB Rex Burkhead 0.00
WR Cordarrelle Patterson 0.00
RB James White -0.04
WR Chris Hogan -0.23
RB Sony Michel -0.03

*I've mentioned this in other posts but WAR in this sense is the team's wins above replacement on plays when Player X touched the ball (or was the target of a pass). As a result, Hogan's WAR is pretty bad despite the fact that the pick was 100% Brady's fault. It's not "Hogan's WAR" really, it's "The Patriots' WAR when Hogan was targeted". 

Sony Michel actually beat out Super Bowl MVP Julian Edelman in terms of WAR (largely thanks to him scoring the game's only touchdown - which was the game-winner mind you).

Los Angeles Rams WAR Report
Rams Passing WAR Leaders
QB Jared Goff -0.35
Rams Rushing WAR Leaders
RB Todd Gurley II -0.08
RB C.J. Anderson -0.07
WR Robert Woods 0.00
Rams Receiving WAR Leaders
WR Brandin Cooks -0.20
WR Robert Woods -0.03
WR Josh Reynolds -0.05
RB C.J. Anderson -0.02
RB Todd Gurley II -0.03
TE Gerald Everett -0.02

Not a good outing for the Rams. Goff wasn't able to do anything for the whole game, and finished with an abysmal -0.35 WAR. Cooks had a decent game but "his" WAR suffered on Goff's terrible interception. Dont'a Hightower reminded us all why he got that contract with his game yesterday, with 2 sacks as the Pats put a ton of pressure on Goff. 

 

And outside of WAR, here's the Adjusted Yards Above Average (YAA) numbers from Sunday. YAA takes the player's adjusted yards per attempt (+20 for touchdowns, -45 for turnovers), multiplies it by their number of touches, and subtracts the product of the average adjusted yards figure and the same number of touches. 

For example, Player X had an adjusted yards per attempt when targeted of 7.0 on 10 targets. The NFL average of the last 3 seasons (the number I use) is 6.966666667. In this case, Player X had 7.0*10 adjusted yards (70). The average player would accrue 6.966666667*10 yards, or 69.66666667. Take the difference, and you get +0.333 yards for Player X, or 0.0333 per attempt.

Quarterbacks Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Jared Goff Tom Brady
AY/A 4.8 6.2
Attempts 38 35
YAA -82.33 -26.83
YAA / Attempt -2.17 -0.77

Goff was not good on Sunday. 4.8 AY/A is bad, over 2.15 worse than the NFL average. Brady's 6.2 wasn't very good either. Both suffered as a result of interceptions. Brady didn't play his best game, being charged with -27 yards from the average, but Goff was so bad he took 2 yards from his team per pass against the average.

Pass Defense Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Los Angeles New England
AY/A 6.2 4.8
Attempts 35 38
YAA -26.83 -82.33
YAA / Attempt -0.77 -2.17

This chart is obviously just the inverse of the previous, for each team's passing defense. *For defenses, a negative Yards Above Average is better because it means that a team yielded less yards than the average defense would've.

Running Backs Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Todd Gurley II C.J. Anderson Sony Michel Rex Burkhead
AY/C 3.5 3.1 6.3 6.1
Carries 10 7 18 7
YAA -9.04 -9.13 +57.91 +11.87
YAA / Carry -0.90 -1.30 +3.22 +1.70

Blue just represents the second-place finisher. The Rams' running game was their bread and butter all year, as was their play-action game off of it, and the Patriots took away both to the tune of a total defensive YAA in excess of -100 (again, that's good - it means 100 yards less than the average defense on the same number of plays). Gurley and Anderson were both terrible on the ground as the Patriots finished the playoffs I believe third all time in playoff rushing yards allowed. Sony's stats are buffed by the touchdown run, but he was pretty good when he wasn't running straight into the line for a yard (which happened quite a few times). 

Rush Defense Yards Above Average Statistics
Statistic Los Angeles New England
AY/C 5.4 3.4
Carries 32 18
YAA +31.86 -18.07
YAA / Carry +1.00 -1.00

Again, good figures on the New England side, but not so much for the Rams. The Patriots' defense was totally dominant on Sunday, as the team racked up 143.35 total YAA on offense and defense.

It wasn't pretty offensively, but it was certainly something for No. 6 and for Brian Flores' sendoff. 

 

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