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Gute's Amazing Roster Purge


TheOnlyThing

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Both sides in this argument have me confused.

TT through 2014 was a very good GM.   Built a strong franchise, good culture and successful.  

Stating in 20151 it was like we had a different person.   His drafts went from being a strong point to poor. He started chasing positions rather than accumulating the best talent.   

He should have changed coaching staffs after the Seattle loss.  That was a franchise turning loss and TT failed to recognize the dynamics that came from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.   I believe the coaching staff lost a lot of trust with the players starting with that game.

I also don't think Gute has done much that most people put in the GM position would not have.  The proof will be in the performance of his draft class, and the success of the free agents chosen this year.   Too early to make any big claims of success or failure.

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4 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

Both sides in this argument have me confused.

TT through 2014 was a very good GM.   Built a strong franchise, good culture and successful.  

Stating in 20151 it was like we had a different person.   His drafts went from being a strong point to poor. He started chasing positions rather than accumulating the best talent.   

He should have changed coaching staffs after the Seattle loss.  That was a franchise turning loss and TT failed to recognize the dynamics that came from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.   I believe the coaching staff lost a lot of trust with the players starting with that game.

I also don't think Gute has done much that most people put in the GM position would not have.  The proof will be in the performance of his draft class, and the success of the free agents chosen this year.   Too early to make any big claims of success or failure.

If the rumors are true, they basically were run by a different person starting in 2015. Not sure if that's true or not, or even that I 100 % believe it. But if the rumors are true, then I think somewhere along the way, TT's health really started affecting things, and GB should have acted faster, IMO. 

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I don't know how much of that is true, but I really think we have to look at the TT era as a pre 2015 vs a post 2015.   Post 2015 we had real problems at backup Qb,  went into a game without an active backup RB, and a definite decline in the draft.  Things that just didn't happen before 2015.

I also think we were really slow in making changes to the coaching staff.  I was amazed at the rope given to Capers.   He needed to be changed out years earlier.   McCarthy's unwillingness to make that change should have had him in trouble much earlier.  It should have been apparent that the people drafting did not have a connection with what the people running the defense needed.   Either TT didn't understand what  Capers needed,  didn't listen to Capers input, or Capers himself was evaluating poorly.  Any of the three are a problem that should have driven a separation earlier.

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43 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

Both sides in this argument have me confused.

TT through 2014 was a very good GM.   Built a strong franchise, good culture and successful.  

Stating in 20151 it was like we had a different person.   His drafts went from being a strong point to poor. He started chasing positions rather than accumulating the best talent.   

He should have changed coaching staffs after the Seattle loss.  That was a franchise turning loss and TT failed to recognize the dynamics that came from snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.   I believe the coaching staff lost a lot of trust with the players starting with that game.

I also don't think Gute has done much that most people put in the GM position would not have.  The proof will be in the performance of his draft class, and the success of the free agents chosen this year.   Too early to make any big claims of success or failure.

It's really not.  There's essentially 2 arguments being made here.  TOT is using hindsight to justify that the Packers should have moved on from Ted Thompson well before they actually did.  The crux of the entire argument is that there was no reason to move on from Ted Thompson, because the Packers were still successful.  After the 2014 season?  You mean the one in which they went 12-4 and made it to the NFC Championship game?  Someone can go do the work, but the last time a team fired their HC after making to their conference championship game isn't a very long list.  The reality is that they shouldn't have moved on from Ted Thompson sooner unless you're using the power of hindsight to justify it.  You don't move on from a process that has proven to work.  And before someone comes in here and says that it wasn't working, if you're going to hold that standard we'd be seeing like 90% of the teams turning over their FO every year.

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35 minutes ago, hitnhope said:

I don't know how much of that is true, but I really think we have to look at the TT era as a pre 2015 vs a post 2015.   Post 2015 we had real problems at backup Qb,  went into a game without an active backup RB, and a definite decline in the draft.  Things that just didn't happen before 2015.

I also think we were really slow in making changes to the coaching staff.  I was amazed at the rope given to Capers.   He needed to be changed out years earlier.   McCarthy's unwillingness to make that change should have had him in trouble much earlier.  It should have been apparent that the people drafting did not have a connection with what the people running the defense needed.   Either TT didn't understand what  Capers needed,  didn't listen to Capers input, or Capers himself was evaluating poorly.  Any of the three are a problem that should have driven a separation earlier.

I'm still trying to find the appeal of tearing down a franchise that has been wildly successful.  Do you see the Patriots tearing down their FO and coaching staff when they don't win the Super Bowl?  How about the Steelers?  Change came when they were no longer being successful.  Should they have moved on from Dom Capers?  Probably so, but let's not pretend like they should have moved on from him in 2012.

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1 hour ago, MantyWrestler said:

Not really. That’s a pretty crap list of guys. Guys who were not athletic enough for the NFL, guys who had never played a certain position we played them in and others who were over the hill when we brought them in in the first place. 

Agreed that it is a pretty crappy list.

Unfortunately, the list includes 3 1st round, a 2nd round, 2 3rd round, and 2 4th round picks who did not pan out as expected as well as several second contract players & even a couple of free agents whose production did not match their pay.

Just glad Gute is biting the bullet and moving forward with the much needed roster purge.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

2/3rds of our roster is a little over 35 players.  Do you really think we're replacing 35 players every year?  No.  As it's been discussed before, you're moving on from ~20 players every offseason.  The large majority of those players are fringe roster guys.  Not guys who are actually playing meaningful snaps.

No no no. My point was that what we had and replaced were washued up, HUGE prospects and just a guy at best.

I think TT got a little crazy the last few years.  Not that Gute would do this every year. 

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18 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

Agreed that it is a pretty crappy list.

Unfortunately, the list includes 3 1st round, a 2nd round, 2 3rd round, and 2 4th round picks who did not pan out as expected as well as several second contract players & even a couple of free agents whose production did not match their pay.

Just glad Gute is biting the bullet and moving forward with the much needed roster purge.

Totally agree. My point is how shocked I was with how bad they were. Hopefully this kind of a purge doesn’t happen again for a long time. 

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14 minutes ago, TheOnlyThing said:

Agreed that it is a pretty crappy list.

Unfortunately, the list includes 3 1st round, a 2nd round, 2 3rd round, and 2 4th round picks who did not pan out as expected as well as several second contract players & even a couple of free agents whose production did not match their pay.

Just glad Gute is biting the bullet and moving forward with the much needed roster purge.

You mean moving on from a guy coming off his 2nd contract (Clay Mathtews) which is what teams should do.  They moved on from a guy who they just exercised a 5th year option on (Damarious Randall).  And they moved a guy who played his way out of Green Bay for a 4th round pick.  But hey, as long as he's turning over the roster, Gute must be doing a great job.  It's amusing how quick are you to give Gute credit for doing what he's supposed to do, but you'll blatantly ignore what TT did.  Daryn Colledge did his 4 years with Green Bay and signed a 5 year, $27.5M deal with the Cardinals.  And moving on from draft picks?  The ironic part is that he did that.  He traded Jerel Worthy after 2 years with Green Bay.  The Packers waived Khyri Thornton a year after investing a 3rd round pick on him.  Again, you'll praise Gute for making all these changes, but you absolutely refuse to acknowledge it when Ted does it.  So...either I'm pulling crap out of my behind or you're not being consistent with your argument.  Which is it?

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53 minutes ago, MantyWrestler said:

No no no. My point was that what we had and replaced were washued up, HUGE prospects and just a guy at best.

I think TT got a little crazy the last few years.  Not that Gute would do this every year. 

It this insane concept that if we're not turning over half our roster, we're not doing the right way that @TheOnlyThing seems to be preaching.  Hell, you're a draft pick and if you're not a bonafide starter by Y2 then TOT would be advocating releasing that player.  I'll use Kevin King as an example.  IF Gute woke up tomorrow morning and decided he wanted to carve out more cap space and looked at Kevin King as a potential cap casualty, do you know what he'd see?  He'd see a guy we'd eat $2.2M in dead cap if we released him.  If we hung onto him, we'd have him with a cap hit of $1.9M.  So we'd be taking away $0.3M to our cap space if we released Kevin King.  Let's look a little further down the board, if the Packers opted to release Jamaal Williams they'd have about $0.3M in dead cap.  But they'd save roughly 500k by releasing him.  You know what a minimum salary is in 2019?  It's roughly 500k, so the Packers don't actually save money by releasing Jamaal Williams or by releasing Kevin King.  They'd at best end up a wash in terms of money.  So if you're not releasing a player because of cap relief, why would you release a draft pick?  The only reason would be is if you were in a roster crunch, and he wasn't one of the X best players.  In 2014, the Packers used a 3rd round pick on Khyri Thornton and probably would have made the roster on that merit alone since he was a recent 3rd round draft pick.  Flash forward to 2015, and Thornton didn't make the cut as he was behind Mike Daniels, B.J. Raji, Josh Boyd, Mike Pennel, and Bruce Gaston whom he was clearly worse then all of them.  Hence the roster crunch issue.

So I'll ask this question, are there 6 CBs more talented than Kevin King on the roster?  By my estimation, I think you could make an argument for 3 at the very most.  Are there 8 OL more talented than Jason Spriggs on the current roster?  Again, I think you could make the argument that there are 3 that are clearly better than Spriggs, but certainly not anywhere close to 8 which is where I'd put the minimum number of OL for a 53 man roster.  So I'll finish with this question, how many draft picks from 2016 until now are currently on the outside looking in that were drafted within the first 5 rounds?

TL;DR You don't actually save money by releasing draft picks, you only release them when you're in a roster crunch.

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