Which rookie RB finishes with the best fantasy season in PPR?

[Webmaster]

Thoughts on the rookie running backs for fantasy purposes this season?

[Incarcerated_Scarface]

I'll take Hunt for now because he just fell into the job.

[SoS]

Here's my opinion on each guy: 

Christian McCaffrey - He's being drafted ahead of Danny Woodhead in PPR leagues, and I honestly don't think he has the floor or ceiling of Woody. Playing with a QB who is relatively unfamiliar with checking down and next to a big back with goal line prowess, I'm not sure how McCaffrey consistently produces week-to-week. With that said, the Panthers have talked about manufacturing him touches, Jonathan Stewart is incredibly injury prone, he's a back that won't be impacted by game script, and he plays behind one of the better run blocking OLines in the league. 1pt PPR leagues are pretty much the only place I'm touching him, otherwise I think he's being overvalued. 

Leonard Fournette - I'll be more than happy to watch someone else gamble on Fournette as a top 12 RB, especially in PPR. Be it Bortles or Henne, Fournette is going to get the Todd Gurley treatment the second he proves he's worthy of it. The Jaguars have an improving defense, but until I see that actually transition to Sunday's, I'm going to assume that Fournette will have negative game script working against him. There's really not a whole lot to love here outside of the guaranteed rushing volume. 

Dalvin Cook - A very interesting selection considering he can be had after the previous two names. He's neck and neck with McCaffrey in my PPR rankings (I'd rather have both over Fournette, especially for the value), but I think I slightly prefer McCaffrey to Cook. Cook was an overrated college talent IMO and he really doesn't have the shiftiness or balance of the other top backs mentioned here. He also plays behind a pretty poor OLine. What he has going in his favor is that he's currently the unquestioned 3-down back (Murray doesn't worry me at all) and he should have a lot of positive game script with the Vikings great defense. He also shows good hands out of the backfield and plays for QB willing to dump it, which is what puts him above Fournette for me. 

Joe Mixon - Let's start with the fact that, from a college talent evaluation perspective, I love me some Joe Mixon. If you're in a dynasty league, he's the #1 player I want. Unfortunately for this season, his value is very cloudy. On one hand, he's the best talent of the 5 names being talked about here. He's not only a terrific runner, but he has Le'Veon Bell like receiving ability. The bad news is that he plays for a coach that hates trusting rookies, on an offense with a very questionable OLine, and he still has to fight off Jeremy Hill for consistent goal line touches and Gio Bernard for consistent receiving snaps. If Hill gets hurt or is traded, Mixon becomes a no-doubt RB1. But that isn't promised, even after Hill's ankle issue, so Mixon is a gamble if you're looking for a RB2 type. 

Kareem Hunt - Prior to the Spencer Ware injury, Hunt wouldn't even have been allowed in this conversation. Post Ware injury and now we're talking about one of the most valuable backs in fantasy. Andy Reid offenses consistently churn out stud RB1s and Hunt is a between the tackles bruiser who won't be impacted by game script at all. He's now the best goal line back on what should be an improved offense and will have positive scripts more times than not with that defense. Don't worry about the fact he was drafted the lowest in April, he's the best rookie back for fantasy purposes. 

 

Rankings
1. Kareem Hunt 
2. Christian McCaffrey 
3. Dalvin Cook 
4. Joe Mixon 
5. Leonard Fournette 

[sammymvpknight]

I'm a believer that the cream rises to the top. People doubted me when I made the claim that Michael Thomas would be worth of a top 4 round selection last year. You can't deny the talent of Cook and McCaffrey. I'm worried about Fournettes injury history and being a Jaguar. I think Hunt has some upside but is not nearly as talented. 

[SoS]

21 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

I'm a believer that the cream rises to the top. People doubted me when I made the claim that Michael Thomas would be worth of a top 4 round selection last year. You can't deny the talent of Cook and McCaffrey. I'm worried about Fournettes injury history and being a Jaguar. I think Hunt has some upside but is not nearly as talented. 

If "cream rises to the top" is what we're gonna call it, why didn't more talented prospects like Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, and Laquon Treadwell (per the opinion of NFL GMs, not you or I) have much if any success last season? 

Talent certainly helps, but fantasy fate is dictated by opportunity. It's no coincidence that you were proven right about Michael Thomas.....because he played in the highest octane passing offense in the league. 

[sammymvpknight]

9 minutes ago, SoS said:

If "cream rises to the top" is what we're gonna call it, why didn't more talented prospects like Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, and Laquon Treadwell (per the opinion of NFL GMs, not you or I) have much if any success last season? 

Talent certainly helps, but fantasy fate is dictated by opportunity. It's no coincidence that you were proven right about Michael Thomas.....because he played in the highest octane passing offense in the league. 

Because you just named a bunch of so, so receivers. Michael Thomas was the #4 WR entering the season last year. But he was a stud. Frankly...he was the most talented Saints WR I've ever seen...better than Colston, Horn, and Martin. Having Brees helps, but he was going to be a superstar anywhere. 

I'd be careful avoiding talent for opportunity. AP was once a RB projected to backup Chester Taylor. Smart coaches aren't stupid...they given talented players the football. 

[SoS]

45 minutes ago, sammymvpknight said:

Because you just named a bunch of so, so receivers. Michael Thomas was the #4 WR entering the season last year. But he was a stud. Frankly...he was the most talented Saints WR I've ever seen...better than Colston, Horn, and Martin. Having Brees helps, but he was going to be a superstar anywhere. 

I'd be careful avoiding talent for opportunity. AP was once a RB projected to backup Chester Taylor. Smart coaches aren't stupid...they given talented players the football. 

It's not about giving them the football. Cook and Hunt will likely see similar touch totals by years end. Opportunity also has to do with the situation a player is in. I bet Will Fuller, Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, and Sterling Shepard would've been much more productive in New Orleans offense as well. 

I like Hunt's situation in Kansas City's offense a lot more than I do Cook's situation in Minnesota's. 

[holt_bruce81]

49 minutes ago, SoS said:

It's not about giving them the football. Cook and Hunt will likely see similar touch totals by years end. Opportunity also has to do with the situation a player is in. I bet Will Fuller, Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, and Sterling Shepard would've been much more productive in New Orleans offense as well. 

I like Hunt's situation in Kansas City's offense a lot more than I do Cook's situation in Minnesota's. 

I'm probably higher on Coleman than most, but i think he has WR2 potential this year. I'll probably try and snag him up late in my draft

[Duffman57]

On 8/29/2017 at 9:51 PM, SoS said:

If "cream rises to the top" is what we're gonna call it, why didn't more talented prospects like Corey Coleman, Will Fuller, and Laquon Treadwell (per the opinion of NFL GMs, not you or I) have much if any success last season? 

Talent certainly helps, but fantasy fate is dictated by opportunity. It's no coincidence that you were proven right about Michael Thomas.....because he played in the highest octane passing offense in the league. 

All of the guys you mentioned were drafted mostly on their potential, or a certain role they could fill right away, not necessarily being a really good player.  Coleman is a freak athlete, but he needed a lot of work before he gets there, he also was injured for most of last year, which stunts development.  Fuller's think is that he's tallish and FAST, he was a great deep threat, but his game is far from well rounded.  Treadwell was injured and has a playstyle that isn't necessarily conductive to early NFL success (played "bully ball" in college), as he goes up against much bigger more physical/athletic CB's, and he can't just out physical them anymore.  You saw it with guys like Jeffery who had the same problem.

But in general, comparing WR to RB is difficult, as RB is one of the highest rookie success rate position and WR is one of the lowest, even if they become great players in the future.

[Eric dunn]

Im all in on Kareem Hunt, i think him and Dalvin Cook have the best opportunities this year.

I love Fournette, but i just think teams are gonna stack the box against him with Henne/Bortles at QB. 

I also really like C-Mac but i think Stewart will still be heavily involved at least this year.

Mixon is probably the most talented with the highest potential. But Hill/Bernard just make that backfield a mess for fantasy fans right now. If one gets hurt, watch out for Mixon.

[MookieMonstah]

Cook is a good but not great athlete running behind a trash OL. I'm not touching him in any league honestly.

[MemphisEagles]

My least favorite is Cook. I like him a lot as an actual player, but he's splitting carries with a decent back behind a bad line.

 

Fournette has injury concerns and the Jags won't be in a lot of 4 minute drills.

Kareem Hunt is in 2nd. Just a solid but not elite guy and situation imo.

McCaffery I think will get a lot of touches on a good team with the best QB on this list with no great weapons on offense. Kelvin and Olsen are both good enough where teams can't just load the box but not so good where you choose to make them the main part of the offense every game.

[EaglesPeteC]

I have Cook in one league and Hunt in another, so I'm going with them 

[ima]

Christian McCaffery >> Cook/Hunt > Fournette > Mixon

 

I really believe CMC will get ~1300-1500 YFS with 8 or so total TD's with room for a bit more. Unfortunately I was not able to pick him up in either of my leagues.

Cook and Hunt are in similar situations to me, with a slight preference toward Hunt due to projected goal line work. Both should be rock solid RB2's with RB1 potential especially in PPR.

Tough situations for Fournette and Mixon for different reasons put them toward the end for me.

[detroitlions72003]

I agree with the 7 people who picked Hunt. Though I took Mccaffrey in almost all my leagues so I hope him ..