TCMD - Keeper League Discussion

[RTTRUTH]

1 hour ago, ny92mike said:

If you all think it would be best to limit the number to 16 or 20 I'm fine with that, when I was looking to start this I thought 32 would be cool as it didn't exclude our regular members as we typically fill up with the same people each year, but maybe you guys are right that this keeper league should be more exclusive.

 

Well if you trust 30+ people to handle it properly, that would make an initial draft unnecessary, which is a plus.

The concern is if 3-4-5 people no-show at the draft, or the re-sign phase, where do we go from there? 

 

But I’m new here. I don’t know the group well enough to say it can’t be done. I leave that to your good judgement @ny92mike

[EaglesPeteC]

Start with 16 and then if more people want to join expand to 18 after we work out the kinks. The first couple seasons will probably be rocky, so its probably best to start with our core group who are committed to working out the kinks and not bail if things breakdown a little, then when we feel solid, open it up to expansion.

I think it would be cool to do an expansion draft for new teams.

[ny92mike]

@Counselor

@EaglesPeteC

@bcb1213

@DTMW78

@squire12

@RTTRUTH

@mountainpd

@samsel23

 

Alright, I'm still working on this project and positive I get the numbers a little more accurate than what I'm showing here, but I wanted to get your take on it.  Personally, I think between this sim and using the tcmd model for the offseason is what will make this keeper different from the other sims in this forum.  Not better or worse just different.  I don't think we should be looking to mirror any of the ones currently being presented in the forum.  Sure if they have a cool concept, taking pieces from it is one thing but copying the entire thing is something different.

Anyway, this is just a rough draft of how it might work and this is only showing you a sliver of information, to just keep this from getting to confusing.  The final version will be laid out differently and 100% transparent.

A quick reference on how it works behind the scenes is each position is given a grade based on stats, will discuss this later but for now this is all you really need to know.  Based on sum of all the positional grades the team is put into a grouping from A - k for both offense and defense.  These groupings we paired with each other, meaning the offensive group and the opponents defensive group determine the for each game.  This can be tinkered with to refine this system but for now, you'll notice that the sim isn't 100% accurate to the irl standings.  Which I don't think it'll ever be perfect but again I think we can get it a little better than where it is now.  Just need a little more time to work out the kinks.

The purpose of showing this to you now is to get your take on the concept.  Using the data I've got loaded for this sample, take a look at columns T, U, V, W.

• Column T -  Shows the irl standings for each team.
• Column U - Shows the simulated standings for each team.
• Column V -  Shows the simulated standings for each team, when you make changes to the positional grades colored blue.
• Column W - Displays if there was any change and if that change was more or less wins.

Using the Giants for an example they won only 5 games last season, the sim calculates the same 5 wins.  However, when I change their mediocre OT / OG grades to high 80's the team goes from 5 wins to 12 wins. 

You'll notice that it not only changes the outcome of the Giants standings but other teams as well.  Some because it shows that they won against those teams in their schedule but only because the system uses groupings based on the teams offense / defense rankings.  So, when you change the positional grades of one team which potentially puts that team in a higher grouping, it ultimately kicks another group into a higher or lower grouping changing the outcome of not just one team but several teams.  Personally, I like it because it prevents someone from knowing the outcome of the standings when they add players or remove players.  Sure, if you better your team it'll get better but how much would be impossible to determine.  The system also doesn't just assume that if you have a Group A offense and a Group A defense that you'll win every game.  This doesn't happen in real life either, the any given sunday rule plays a large factor in wins and loses and I think it should here as well.  The Rams in this sim are graded out with A's in both off/ def yet they finished in this sim with a record of 11 wins, irl they won 13, still not a perfect 16-0 season.  In this sim NE has the best record with 15-1 but they have grades of C and H.  

Anyway, I know it's a lot to look at and I also know that I suck at trying to explain things, but for the regular season, this is the direction I'm looking at.  I'd still like to create the game plans and vote on those for the postseason, but the regular season I wanna make it a rather fast event so best case we use a system similar to this to determine the standings or we post the scores from this sim and then vote on if the sim got it right or not.  Either way is fine with me, but this season needs to be done quickly.  I don't want this to be a sim that last the entire year and I really don't think you guys want that either.

 

Edit:  Guess it would help if I attached the workbook.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mKw7FV3o5GjEXM-DJoi9DUGou2OEgKc6-jjzmnw9DhA/edit?usp=sharing

Feel free to edit the cells in blue, changing their percentage to something else to see how it would change the number of wins for each team.

 

 

 

Edited April 25, 2019 by ny92mike

[ny92mike]

So ready for this draft, but I'm sure that Gettleman will find a way within the first 10 minutes of it to where I end up changing the channel.

Here is to hoping it goes my way the next few days.  Make the Giants Great Again....please.

[mountainpd]

13 hours ago, ny92mike said:

So ready for this draft, but I'm sure that Gettleman will find a way within the first 10 minutes of it to where I end up changing the channel.

Here is to hoping it goes my way the next few days.  Make the Giants Great Again....please.

Who you routing for?

i think the giants will draft Jones then Burns/Baker/Murphy

Edited April 25, 2019 by mountainpd

[ny92mike]

41 minutes ago, mountainpd said:

Who you routing for?

i think the giants will draft Jones then Burns/Baker/Murphy

I'm a fan of drew lock.  Won't be happy without that pick.

Petes mock I did would be my favorite draft for the giants.  Think it addresses most of the holes.

[ny92mike]

Well I'm done watching the draft.  Jones at 6.  Smh.

[EaglesPeteC]

15 minutes ago, ny92mike said:

Well I'm done watching the draft.  Jones at 6.  Smh.

don't jump Mike

[mountainpd]

17 hours ago, mountainpd said:

Who you routing for?

i think the giants will draft Jones then Burns/Baker/Murphy

Not a bad guess. Sorry Mike

[EaglesPeteC]

@ny92mike so you'd sim the entire season in one fell swoop and then we do game plans etc for the playoffs?

 

Suggestion if that is the case. Could you do the sim in quarters? (4 games at a time) then that might give us a chance to make in season moves. For example, if my team is 4-0 and I have a low LB grade, maybe I want to go trade a draft pick for a LB. Or the reverse If I am 0-4 maybe I want to trade a player or two to get some picks. 

How would that effect things?

[ny92mike]

On 4/28/2019 at 9:03 AM, EaglesPeteC said:

@ny92mike so you'd sim the entire season in one fell swoop and then we do game plans etc for the playoffs?

 

Suggestion if that is the case. Could you do the sim in quarters? (4 games at a time) then that might give us a chance to make in season moves. For example, if my team is 4-0 and I have a low LB grade, maybe I want to go trade a draft pick for a LB. Or the reverse If I am 0-4 maybe I want to trade a player or two to get some picks. 

How would that effect things?

We could set it up to show the full season, quarters or individual games.  All I was showing with the workbook is what the season outcome would look like and how beefing up or reducing the percentage grades from each team would change the outcome of the season standings.  Also, worth noting is how many are going to be willing to help me out with this project once it gets underway.  

The one thing I don't want to do is to have this drag out the entire season.  It's the reason I stopped participating in bdl, it just got to become too big of a commitment creating game plans and voting on teams every week.  I'm looking for something that we can package the entire thing up in about a 4 month or less window.    

[ny92mike]

On 4/25/2019 at 8:24 PM, EaglesPeteC said:

don't jump Mike

I jumped but two feet wasn't deep enough to get the job done.

Actually, I think Gettleman as much as I hate what he's done with this team, but I can't complain about the way the draft worked out.  No I'm not a fan of Jones getting drafted at 6, but as you guys know I wasn't a fan of Haskins, so I'm happy that they didn't take him at 6.  I think Denver got a steal with Luck in the second because imo he's the better of the group.  Hopefully, Gettleman proves me wrong.  Was looking for a little more flash from the pick we got after trading Odell but we really needed a NT, only because they traded Snacks away the previous season.  This is what kills me about this guy, he creates his own holes and perhaps that's why his drafts look so good, their instant starters on this roster because we got no one behind them....haha.

Loved that they boosted the secondary with drafting 3 corners, gonna need it because they didn't put a ton in rush linebacker, waiting til the late 3rd round.  Also, wasn't a fan of waiting til the late 7th to give this crap line another body.  Not expecting much production from this offensive unit this year but if all these rookies workout, we'll have a better defense...haha.

 

[RTTRUTH]

5 hours ago, ny92mike said:

We could set it up to show the full season, quarters or individual games.  All I was showing with the workbook is what the season outcome would look like and how beefing up or reducing the percentage grades from each team would change the outcome of the season standings.  Also, worth noting is how many are going to be willing to help me out with this project once it gets underway.  

The one thing I don't want to do is to have this drag out the entire season.  It's the reason I stopped participating in bdl, it just got to become too big of a commitment creating game plans and voting on teams every week.  I'm looking for something that we can package the entire thing up in about a 4 month or less window.    

If you show me what it is you need help with, I can be surprisingly helpful. 

[ny92mike]

14 minutes ago, RTTRUTH said:

If you show me what it is you need help with, I can be surprisingly helpful. 

Appreciate it.

I'll be tweaking the formulas for simulating the season and would love input on that stuff, right now the way it's set up makes it kinda difficult to see what I'm doing.  I'll try to make the work I'm doing easier to read with this next update.

How are your excel skills?

At some point, we all need to figure out what direction we wanna take this.  Where I think we could really use the help is getting this organized.  I'll be the first to tell you I'm a horribly organized person.  Never been one to create outlines or rough drafts but just spill it all on the table and hope it sorts itself out, so getting this thing better organized by creating an outline or map if you will so that we can really start getting things on paper for discussion would be a tremendous help. 

   

[RTTRUTH]

2 hours ago, ny92mike said:

Appreciate it.

I'll be tweaking the formulas for simulating the season and would love input on that stuff, right now the way it's set up makes it kinda difficult to see what I'm doing.  I'll try to make the work I'm doing easier to read with this next update.

How are your excel skills?

At some point, we all need to figure out what direction we wanna take this.  Where I think we could really use the help is getting this organized.  I'll be the first to tell you I'm a horribly organized person.  Never been one to create outlines or rough drafts but just spill it all on the table and hope it sorts itself out, so getting this thing better organized by creating an outline or map if you will so that we can really start getting things on paper for discussion would be a tremendous help. 

   

Well I’d love to lie and say I’m great with Excel. I can use it a bit. 

 

If i don’t get anything accomplished before Thursday-Friday I can definitely put some time in there. So you’re essentially saying let’s nail down start dates on paper and a basic outline of how it’s scored, when FA and draft is, etc?