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Are there sure-fire RBs outside the Top-4?


JaguarCrazy2832

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I know I said that RB is deeper than ever and I kind of still think its deep but I feel like the top is still set but outside of that even the 5-10 guys aren't free from concerns:

Barkley, Seke, CMC and Kamara are the Top-4 imo in some sort of order. For the most part they don't have questions around them but outside of that:

Todd Gurley: Whats going on with that knee? His offense is incredible and the opportunities will be plentiful but if his knee was so bad that he couldn't play much at all in the SB, it must have been bad

Leveon Bell: Sat out an entire year and plays on a team that needs to prove to take care of the ball and sustain drives with Darnold

Melvin Gordon: He has been very consistent but had a few small injuries here and there. Will the holdout cause a problem and will the small injuries turn into more lingering issues?

David Johnson: Talented, but his OL isn't good and he has been the guy that defenses gameplan for and have contained him on the ground. 

James Conner: Might be one of the "safer" ones because he is fresh but even he wore down a little towards the end of the year. Maybe AB leaving means the box isn't as open?

Joe Mixon: He plays on an anemic offense but if AJ Green stays healthy the ball should move closer to the end zone to give him a chance to get double digit TDs

Dalvin Cook: Injuries have hurt him alot but he hasn't had the best luck running with more games running under 4 ypc than not

Leonard Fournette: Injuries ruined last year for him and his rookie year he wasn't that efficient but he got touches. Now I wonder if the touches will go down to save his health. Offense has major question marks outside of him too

Devonta Freeman: Injuries have gotten him the last 2 years but he plays for a great offense and Tevin Coleman is gone

Nick Chubb: Plays for a great offense(supposedly) and will be the bell cow until Hunt comes back, what happens when that happens?

Josh Jacobs: Rookie, on an offense that might take a long time to adjust

Derrick Henry: Will the real Derrick Henry please stand up? The last 4 games and most every game vs Jacksonville, he has been great but he hasn't been consistent and Mariota isn't doing him any favors

Marlon Mack: Should be the lead guy but missed some games and still didn't eclipse 200 carries. Lots of games under 4ypc and doesnt catch many passes

Kerryon Johnson: Love him at Auburn(War Eagle!) but just like his collegiate career, injuries have stopped his rookie season in its tracks. Not sure he can be the guy

Aaron Jones: Should be the guy but you wonder how he'll be used under new management

Damian Williams: Had several mediocre at best years and then was huge for KC. Product of Mahomes or not, but he has never had more than 50 carries in a NFL season

Sony Michel/James White: Michel had some injury concerns and White doesnt get the touches consistently enough to rely on

Chris Carson & Phillip Lindsay: Both had good 2018 seasons but Rashad Penny and Royce Freeman were high enough picks that they won't go away quickly. 

Kenyan Drake: Miami might have one of the worst offenses in the NFL

Mark Ingram: He doesnt have Brees slinging it to take pressure off of him. Teams will be keying in on the running game

David Montgomery & Tarik Cohen: Kind of a Michel/White combo but on a lesser scale

Derrius Guice/AP: Guice has injury concerns and AP isn't getting any younger. If 1 is out and the other is good to go there might be something there but their offense won't be good enough for both to be good

Tevin Coleman/Jerick McKinnon: Not sure how this will play out

Lamar Miller: About as vanilla as they come and Foreman might actually be healthy and ready to steal touches

Miles Sanders & Jordan Howard: Curious to see how this plays out as Howard still has something to offer but Philly has been a committee for a while now

McCoy/Gore: Not touching those oldsters at all. The line isn't great and they have lost several steps

Peyton Barber/Ronald Jones: Jones was dreadful but drafted high enough that he'd ruin any touches-based value Barber might have

 

That's pretty much all of them right? Who am I underrating the most here? I kind of tried to paint all of them in somewhat of a negative light as they aren't without flaws but some are more glaring than others

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I consider David Johnson as can't miss. If he could be a top 10 RB on that offense last year, things should only get better.

I also consider Fournette a can't miss, pending health. He's locked into a huge workload and that offense should be improved with Foles while still being run heavy with that defense. 

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34 minutes ago, JonStark said:

I consider David Johnson as can't miss. If he could be a top 10 RB on that offense last year, things should only get better.

I also consider Fournette a can't miss, pending health. He's locked into a huge workload and that offense should be improved with Foles while still being run heavy with that defense. 

Yeah those are my two picks but I also like Cook and Freeman.

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8 hours ago, JonStark said:

I consider David Johnson as can't miss. If he could be a top 10 RB on that offense last year, things should only get better.

I also consider Fournette a can't miss, pending health. He's locked into a huge workload and that offense should be improved with Foles while still being run heavy with that defense. 

I get that DJ is someone that should see improvement assuming Kyler Murray is anywhere near better than Rosen which shouldn't be hard. Isn't he still going to be keyed on? I feel like how much you believe in DJ depends on how great you think Kyler will be as a rookie

Fournette's health though is the biggest problem though and I just don't think he can be counted on to be healthy. I know he's on my team and I want to be so very wrong but he has struggled to stay healthy since LSU

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8 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Yeah those are my two picks but I also like Cook and Freeman.

I just don't get it with Cook. Had him last year and his rushing performances seemed to be so heavily weighted on whether or not he could bust a big run plus it felt like he was constantly questionable.

Freeman is another with injury concerns last year and even the year prior where he had just under 200 carries. Much like Cook, the offense should be able to move the ball but his health is such a big concern

Of the 4 guys mentioned, I'd be very worried if I owned 2 of Fournette, Cook and Freeman for health reasons

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15 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I just don't get it with Cook. Had him last year and his rushing performances seemed to be so heavily weighted on whether or not he could bust a big run plus it felt like he was constantly questionable.

Freeman is another with injury concerns last year and even the year prior where he had just under 200 carries. Much like Cook, the offense should be able to move the ball but his health is such a big concern

Of the 4 guys mentioned, I'd be very worried if I owned 2 of Fournette, Cook and Freeman for health reasons

Yeah I agree with that. I see them as the three with the highest upside but if they get hurt, it can go down hill fast.

I have pictured a scenario with 2 of the 3 you mentioned above, do i like it? sort of. Does it scare me? yes. So I'm hoping to land one of the other Rbs(DJ/Conner/Gordon/Mixon/Chubb) to pair up with one of those three, in a perfect world.

My thing is let's assume those three are on the board with the likes of Ingram, Jacobs, Damien Williams, Marlon Mack, Michel, Kerryon and Derrick Henry.

To me all these Rbs have their pros and cons so why not shoot for the ones with the biggest upside?

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7 hours ago, AlanFanecaFan said:

You saw DJs floor last year...still a rb1.

James White will be a RB2 like clockwork.

Fournette has the workload for sure,...just the ? if healthy.

That's the crazy thing. A few months ago I went back to look at his stats and I was amazed to see he still was a top ten RB. In my home league, he avg pretty much 18 or more per game which isn't bad.

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3 hours ago, NcFinest9erFan said:

Yeah I agree with that. I see them as the three with the highest upside but if they get hurt, it can go down hill fast.

I have pictured a scenario with 2 of the 3 you mentioned above, do i like it? sort of. Does it scare me? yes. So I'm hoping to land one of the other Rbs(DJ/Conner/Gordon/Mixon/Chubb) to pair up with one of those three, in a perfect world.

My thing is let's assume those three are on the board with the likes of Ingram, Jacobs, Damien Williams, Marlon Mack, Michel, Kerryon and Derrick Henry.

To me all these Rbs have their pros and cons so why not shoot for the ones with the biggest upside?

I see what you’re saying although id consider Michel or Damien over the others. Mack and Kerryon I’d definitely pass. Not sure if i have the balls to pull the trigger but RBs with injuries early on in their career scare me to death. You’re basically saying your 2nd pick is very likely to miss 3+ games and thats a tough pill to swallow in deeper leagues

Upside/Potential are great but you have to be on the field to produce too. 

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3 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I see what you’re saying although id consider Michel or Damien over the others. Mack and Kerryon I’d definitely pass. Not sure if i have the balls to pull the trigger but RBs with injuries early on in their career scare me to death. You’re basically saying your 2nd pick is very likely to miss 3+ games and thats a tough pill to swallow in deeper leagues

Upside/Potential are great but you have to be on the field to produce too. 

I wished I liked Michel more but those knees scare me but if he plays 60% of the snaps(i think he did last year) then he's a surefire RB1 with tremendous upside.

I think if you go WR/WR then follow that up with 2 of the 3: Freeman/Cook/Fournette and still can land guys like James White, Coleman then you might be ok.

Although imo if I go WR/WR and end up with two of those injury prone backs in rounds 2-3, my picks in round 4-5 will probably be the best RB on the board, in a perfect world I can still land Kerryon, Jacobs, Drake, Henry.

 

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On 7/24/2019 at 1:47 PM, Rockice_8 said:

This is the deepest RB group I can remember.  You can go down to the Mack's, Carson's, and Ingram's of the worlds into rounds 3-4 and find RB2's I believe.

which is exactly why I will go WR if I am not drafting in the top 4 this year. I will stare really hard at mixon in that spot though. I will probably take Deandre Hopkins early like i did last year.

 

I am targeting these guys in no particular order right now (I will set an order as I get closer to the preseason)

Miles Sanders
David Montgomery
Aaron Jones
Kerryon Johnson
Chubb
Sony Michel
James White
Damien Williams
Justin Jackson

Justin Jackson, Sanders and Montgomery are going to be guys you can ride to the playoffs next year imo. all buy low candidates, especially in keeper leagues. probably jumping all over jackson in the 5th/6th depending

 

I am also watching these guys in the preseason for my deep league: 

Kenneth Dixon
Darrell Henderson
Devin Singletary
Damien Harris
Alexander Mattison
Justice Hill
whoever backs up kamara

The other williams in KC

 

I also got burned by peyton barber last year but I will watch him in the preseason and see how he does... I do want whoever wins that bucs job but i feel like it will be someone random. Will keep an eye out and report back

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7 hours ago, N4L said:

which is exactly why I will go WR if I am not drafting in the top 4 this year. I will stare really hard at mixon in that spot though. I will probably take Deandre Hopkins early like i did last year.

 

I am targeting these guys in no particular order right now (I will set an order as I get closer to the preseason)

Miles Sanders
David Montgomery
Aaron Jones
Kerryon Johnson
Chubb
Sony Michel
James White
Damien Williams
Justin Jackson

Justin Jackson, Sanders and Montgomery are going to be guys you can ride to the playoffs next year imo. all buy low candidates, especially in keeper leagues. probably jumping all over jackson in the 5th/6th depending

 

I am also watching these guys in the preseason for my deep league: 

Kenneth Dixon
Darrell Henderson
Devin Singletary
Damien Harris
Alexander Mattison
Justice Hill
whoever backs up kamara

The other williams in KC

 

I also got burned by peyton barber last year but I will watch him in the preseason and see how he does... I do want whoever wins that bucs job but i feel like it will be someone random. Will keep an eye out and report back

I’m guessing they give Ronald Jones one last chance

Also you mentioned whoever backs up Kamara. Thats Latavius Murray who should be a high level handcuff that should still vulture some TDs too

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23 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I’m guessing they give Ronald Jones one last chance

Also you mentioned whoever backs up Kamara. Thats Latavius Murray who should be a high level handcuff that should still vulture some TDs too

There was some buzz a few months back on Bruce Anderson..I guess he's the 3rd rb on the buc's depthchart?

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