WindyCity Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 1 minute ago, blkwdw13 said: It's basically 2 5th round picks now for a kicker, that's very steep. If you are in a competing window you need to try. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beardown3231 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, WindyCity said: It would have been hard after that meltdown game against GB that he had. A 5th is steep for an unknown. I would see if Carolina wants to trade Slye for a conditional pick. 7 if he makes the team 6 if he kicks in 10 games They used a 5th on Carlson too though EDIT- oops saw your post on page 2 Edited August 11, 2019 by beardown3231 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 10 minutes ago, blkwdw13 said: Minnesota, the land of knee jerk reaction when it comes to kickers. They probably should have just stuck with Carlson. Exactly. If Fry misses 1 kick next week does that make him immediately subpar for the job? Should Pineiro’s miss in week 1 make him that? I sure don’t think so. These guys both kicked at camp making 85% of their FG for 3 weeks which is pretty good. To my recollection neither missed any kicks at XP distance either. That has to count for something. Going without Fry or Pineiro isn’t like going with guys missing 40% of their kicks and hoping for a sudden change once the bullets are real. Say we had traded for Vedvik and he went 2-3 in his first game - is he now not the answer either? Has anyone charged Vedvik’s practice kicks to see if his practice work holds up next to that of our guys, or are we just assuming he’s been better? Who is charting the practice FG of established kickers around the league to see how they compare? Nobody ever even heard of the CAR backup until last Thursday and now because of one good game he’s assumed to be a better candidate than either of our incumbents? It was just last Saturday that Pineiro went 12-12 at Family Fest. I guess that doesn’t matter now because he missed one kick? Do you guys realize how off kilter all of this is? The obsession with immediate, unattainable and certainly unsustainable perfection is tiresome, but it’s also par for the course from our same fan base who is obsessed with microanalyzing every training camp pass thrown by our QB too. Whoever our kicker ends up being is going to miss kicks at some point. That’s football, same as how our QB is at some point going to make a bad throw or decision. If perfection is the only acceptable standard then how can you ever enjoy anything? Watching sports is supposed to be fun. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZBearsFan Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, WindyCity said: It would have been hard after that meltdown game against GB that he had. A 5th is steep for an unknown. I would see if Carolina wants to trade Slye for a conditional pick. 7 if he makes the team 6 if he kicks in 10 games Upon what are you basing that Slye is a better kicking option? It’s gotta be more than just one game, right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said: Upon what are you basing that Slye is a better kicking option? It’s gotta be more than just one game, right? That is all we have to go on. I don’t think we have a camp report on how many kicks he has made. But Fry at 81% and Pinero at 84% is hardly hard to top. Right now based on what we have seen he is a better kicker than our guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ty21 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 We not planning on kicking many FGs this year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vike daddy Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 well, at least you'll see the guy twice a year presumably. hope he works out for us. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 (edited) 6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said: Not to keep taking our kicking situation back to Gould, but what you’re describing with Fry is exactly what we had in young Gould. We wouldn’t even try 50+ yard FG with him for his first few years, but he got stronger and became in time one of the most efficient kickers in the league from long distance as well. I have the same concerns you do but if he’s relatively automatic from 47 and in then you can live with that. Fry was that on Thursday and also in the AAFL this spring. There’s a ton of value in that IMO. I don’t think 85% is just the threshold for a rookie for FG accuracy. I think it’s an acceptable hit rate for any kicker. If you look at kicker FG conversion % league-wide over the past decade you’ll see that about half the kickers in the league are at 85% or above each season. The really good ones are in that group just about every year, the average ones some years, and those who don’t make it aren’t around long. IMO, looking at it from any individual single season analysis leaves a lot of room for volatility though. I believe you mentioned that your background is in the financial field, so I’m sure I’m preaching to the choir when I talk about the short term volatility of percentages, but in terms of kickers and an 85% success threshold a kicker who goes 25/30 doesn’t make it, but 26/30 does. 28/33 doesn’t, but 29/34 does. You’re talking the difference in one kick over a 4-month span being the breaking point for acceptability or non-acceptability without consideration of any variables. That’s a short sighted analysis to me. What I’m looking for is a guy who’s in that 85%+ range over the long term. The bigger sample size is going to give you a more predictable result. We can’t ever know that if we’re not going to actually allow for a long term analysis. Remember that the guy who just went 76.7% for us last year on FG was 91.3% in 2017 and is 83.9% for his career over 118 total FG attempts. The whole discussion around conversion rate leaves out a HUGE part of the analysis though, and that’s the ability to perform under pressure. Adam Vinatieri’s career conversion rate is 84.3%, or only slightly higher than that of Parkey. But man, he is NAILS in crunch time. I can’t speak for anyone else but for me, especially for a team that has Super Bowl aspirations, finding the guy who makes kicks when all the chips are in the middle of the table is more important. If Parkey made the kicks that mattered most last year the dialogue about him would be different. That doesn’t mean he’d still be here necessarily but he’d probably still be in the league. We have no way to know whether any of the kid kickers can be that guy until they actually have to kick in that situation. That’s again where the patience comes into play. Unless we’re going to sign a vet we aren’t going to be able to get away from the anxiety about whether or not our kicker has the fortitude to make big kicks. I do remember Robbie's lack of leg strength early on but more so in kick offs. But as I recall he always seemed to at least have 50 yard range on FGs. You seem to remember it differently. But up 'til the point where he had that groin injury as I recall he was the 2nd most accurate active PK in the NFL at about 87%-88%. Then he fell back for a couple of years after that injury and Fox wanted him gone. Statistically I also look more at standard deviations for variance around the average than just then average alone and looking at Parkey his FG variance is pretty broad. Rounding off; 89% as a rookie, then 75%, then 80%, then 91% in Miami, and 77% for us. So the problem with him is his lack of consistency. Which Cody Parkey will show up? So I'm actually not all that hung up on some specific accuracy percentage without the consistency that must go with it as well as distance and an ability to make those game winning clutch kicks. It's all part of the process much like evaluating Jordan Howard based on his rushing yardage alone. Only Gurley and Elliott rushed for more over those same three seasons. So that's really my bottom line and it's more or less based on most every other way I evaluate stuff in business and in music as well. It's pretty much "you have a job to do so do it as well as you can". I'm pretty much a self-taught self-improvement style guy who feels others should also make those same attempts at improving in their careers but I'm not without patience if they're trying or getting help. Edited August 11, 2019 by soulman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WindyCity Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 Neither Fry or Pinero has been impressive enough that I would not bring in another kicker. Conditional Pick that transfers if he wins the job and we have another option. I just can’t see Fry being an option kicking a frozen ball in Dec Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blkwdw13 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 45 minutes ago, soulman said: I do remember Robbie's lack of leg strength early on but more so in kick offs. But as I recall he always seemed to at least have 50 yard range on FGs. You seem to remember it differently. But up 'til the point where he had that groin injury as I recall he was the 2nd most accurate active PK in the NFL at about 87%-88%. Then he fell back for a couple of years after that injury and Fox wanted him gone. Statistically I also look more at standard deviations for variance around the average than just then average alone and looking at Parkey his FG variance is pretty broad. Rounding off; 89% as a rookie, then 75%, then 80%, then 91% in Miami, and 77% for us. So the problem with him is his lack of consistency. Which Cody Parkey will show up? So I'm actually not all that hung up on some specific accuracy percentage without the consistency that must go with it as well as distance and an ability to make those game winning clutch kicks. It's all part of the process much like evaluating Jordan Howard based on his rushing yardage alone. Only Gurley and Elliott rushed for more over those same three seasons. So that's really my bottom line and it's more or less based on most every other way I evaluate stuff in business and in music as well. It's pretty much "you have a job to do so do it as well as you can". I'm pretty much a self-taught self-improvement style guy who feels others should also make those same attempts at improving in their careers but I'm not without patience if they're trying or getting help. Well going by stats, Gould did not kick a 50 yarder his first season and his second season he was 3 out of 8. And can we stop saying Pakrey's name and comparing anyone to him. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blkwdw13 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 2 hours ago, WindyCity said: If you are in a competing window you need to try. So you say a 5th is steep for an unknown, but 2 5th's for two unknown's is trying. I find it an even steeper price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 (edited) Vikings moved on him. For a 5th. He punts too. Edited August 11, 2019 by dll2000 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dll2000 Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 I think you keep Piniero. Maybe he misses one here or there, but he has a huge leg and I think he will get better with time and experience. Gould wasn't that great at start. Take the talent and develop it. He can take all KRs out of game by kicking through end zone. We may beat patriots if Patterson doesn't return that kick. He can also add points at end of halfs from 60 instead of kneeling. He will get better practicing at soldier field. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dafreak Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 20 minutes ago, dll2000 said: I think you keep Piniero. Maybe he misses one here or there, but he has a huge leg and I think he will get better with time and experience. Gould wasn't that great at start. Take the talent and develop it. He can take all KRs out of game by kicking through end zone. We may beat patriots if Patterson doesn't return that kick. He can also add points at end of halfs from 60 instead of kneeling. He will get better practicing at soldier field. I agree, Piniero is the guy.... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soulman Posted August 11, 2019 Share Posted August 11, 2019 40 minutes ago, blkwdw13 said: Well going by stats, Gould did not kick a 50 yarder his first season and his second season he was 3 out of 8. And can we stop saying Pakrey's name and comparing anyone to him. I'm good with that. As for Robbie I was drunk so often in 2005-2006 that I barely recall my address or my phone number then so I trust your info. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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