2020 College Prospects

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, paul-mac said:

This is my big board for 15, the line denotes players who have a realistic shot at being available

 

1. Chase Young

2. Jeff Okudah

3. Isaiah Simmons

4. Derrick Brown

5. Jedrick Wills

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6. Jerry Jeudy

7. Henry Ruggs III

8. Andrew Thomas

9. CeeDee Lamb

10. Tristan Wirfs

11. CJ Henderson

12. Javon Kinlaw

13. Mekhi Becton

14. Kenneth Murray

15. Josh Jones

 

Ideally I want one of the top 12 so we need to hope for as many QBs as possible in the top 10

I don't have Henderson or Murray as high as you do....but I think the ONE guy who could fall further from your not-realistic scenario is Derrick Brown.  I don't think he falls to our range, but of all the top 6 guys you listed in the top 5, Brown is the one guy who keeps getting mentioned as a surprise guy with falling stock.   It goes without saying that it's the lying season, but take it FWIW.

And yes, we want as many QB's as possible to go top 10.  It's a given Burrow & Tua are going barring an injury between now and Draft Day, it's really about Herbert.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

30 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Also don’t know why we discount that they might not like some of these guys, draftnik consensus be damned.

Klis and Allbright have been pretty adamant that they’re NOT taking an OT in the first. Yes, it’s lying season but this front office tends to telegraph their moves. 

Agreed.  Last year being a great example with Devin White and Devin Bush, both consensus top 10-15 picks who Fangio openly said he didn’t value that high.

[germ-x]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I don't have Henderson or Murray as high as you do....but I think the ONE guy who could fall further from your not-realistic scenario is Derrick Brown.  I don't think he falls to our range, but of all the top 6 guys you listed in the top 5, Brown is the one guy who keeps getting mentioned as a surprise guy with falling stock.   It goes without saying that it's the lying season, but take it FWIW.

And yes, we want as many QB's as possible to go top 10.  It's a given Burrow & Tua are going barring an injury between now and Draft Day, it's really about Herbert.

I have Brown at #12 right now, but could see him go top 5.  Again, after Burrow/Young there isn’t a lot of difference between 3-14.  Depends what you’re looking for, really.  Brown is going to be a really safe pick, but I question if he has the pass rushing chops to be selected top 5, but even if he doesn’t no one will look back and say he was a bust.  He’ll be a good pick anywhere in the top 15.

[Broncofan]

24 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I have Brown at #12 right now, but could see him go top 5.  Again, after Burrow/Young there isn’t a lot of difference between 3-14.  Depends what you’re looking for, really.  Brown is going to be a really safe pick, but I question if he has the pass rushing chops to be selected top 5, but even if he doesn’t no one will look back and say he was a bust.  He’ll be a good pick anywhere in the top 15.

No argument, I still have him in that tier - but man, he went from being top 5-6 to having a ton of variance.   

I personally think Young/Okudah/Simmons are in their own tier talent-wise, and Tua/Burrow are going top 5 (if not top 3).  That top 5 seems locked in, unless Gettleman goes OL out of need first.   But those 5 seem like locks to go top 7 (the Herbert factor comes in for need after Tua goes with MIA/LAC/CAR loser on Tua long-term, so hard to predict).

Edited April 8, 2020 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

10 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

No argument, I still have him in that tier - but man, he went from being top 5-6 to having a ton of variance.   

I personally think Young/Okudah/Simmons are in their own tier, and Tua/Burrow are going top 5 (if not top 3).  That top 5 seems locked in, unless Gettleman goes OL out of need first.   But those 5 seem like locks to go top 7 (the Herbert factor comes in for need after Tua goes with MIA/LAC/CAR loser on Tua long-term, so hard to predict).

Yeah.  I think that’s because of how poorly he tested.  

I’ll try and go back and look more into the testing numbers if I have time before the draft, but this is my current top 15.

1. Burrow 2. Young 3. Simmons 4. Okudah 5. Wills 6. Lamb 7. Jeudy 8. Thomas 9. Ruggs 10. Tua 11. Becton 12. Brown 13. Kinlaw 14. Wirfs 15. Chaisson

Tua’s arm scares me.  The rest of his game is fine.  But he’s going to be a dink and dunk QB that needs to be well protected.  When he can use his lower half he’s fine arm strength wise, when his lower half is taken away and it’s just pure arm talent I don’t know that his arm is even average by NFL standards.

[Broncofan]

6 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Yeah.  I think that’s because of how poorly he tested.  

I’ll try and go back and look more into the testing numbers if I have time before the draft, but this is my current top 15.

1. Burrow 2. Young 3. Simmons 4. Okudah 5. Wills 6. Lamb 7. Jeudy 8. Thomas 9. Ruggs 10. Tua 11. Becton 12. Brown 13. Kinlaw 14. Wirfs 15. Chaisson

Tua’s arm scares me.  The rest of his game is fine.  But he’s going to be a dink and dunk QB that needs to be well protected.  When he can use his lower half he’s fine arm strength wise, when his lower half is taken away and it’s just pure arm talent I don’t know that his arm is even average by NFL standards.

Tua is going top 5 though.  MIA was tanking pretty clearly for him pre-Burrow emergence.     They now have the luxury that it won't be a massively forced pick at 1.5.  The only question IMO is if they or LAC (or someone else, seems less likely given the price but who knows) move up to 1.3 to get him.    And then when Tua goes, the Q becomes what QB-needy team (for future, not as much this year, with so many stopgap vets around) thinks they can fix Herbert.    I hope it's a top 10 team.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Tua is going top 5 though.  MIA was tanking pretty clearly for him pre-Burrow emergence.     They now have the luxury that it won't be a massively forced pick at 1.5.  The only question IMO is if they or LAC (or someone else, seems less likely given the price but who knows) move up to 1.3 to get him.    And then when Tua goes, the Q becomes what QB-needy team (for future, not as much this year, with so many stopgap vets around) thinks they can fix Herbert.    I hope it's a top 10 team.

Oh ya he’s going to go higher than 10.  Just how I currently have them ranked.  

[AnAngryAmerican]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Tua is going top 5 though.  MIA was tanking pretty clearly for him pre-Burrow emergence.     They now have the luxury that it won't be a massively forced pick at 1.5.  The only question IMO is if they or LAC (or someone else, seems less likely given the price but who knows) move up to 1.3 to get him.    And then when Tua goes, the Q becomes what QB-needy team (for future, not as much this year, with so many stopgap vets around) thinks they can fix Herbert.    I hope it's a top 10 team.

Given the New England-created connections between the Miami and Detroit franchises, I would wager that the two already have a plan in place to swap firsts and probably at a lower price than has been the case in recent years. Unless San Diego absolutely blows away Detroit with an offer I'm sure, all else equal, Quinn will deal the pick to his friends in South Beach. #5 and  #39 or #56 for #3 seems like the deal that will happen. Detroit can still get Okudah or another elite prospect and have two picks in the second round. The Dolphins get their QB and still have two more first round picks plus a second. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, AnAngryAmerican said:

Given the New England-created connections between the Miami and Detroit franchises, I would wager that the two already have a plan in place to swap firsts and probably at a lower price than has been the case in recent years. Unless San Diego absolutely blows away Detroit with an offer I'm sure, all else equal, Quinn will deal the pick to his friends in South Beach. #5 and  #39 or #56 for #3 seems like the deal that will happen. Detroit can still get Okudah or another elite prospect and have two picks in the second round. The Dolphins get their QB and still have two more first round picks plus a second. 

Yeah, I think that's the most likely scenario too.   Honestly the only scenario where MIA doesn't get Tua is 1) WAS pulls an ARI (which seems unlikely, but stranger things have happened, and it's a new regime, so can't say it's zero chance)........ or 2) MIA somehow falls in love with Herbert more.

And so it's clear where I stand on this, while Tua's injury flags are massive (not the hip alone, the 2 tightrope surgeries, to each ankle are a big Q as this is not the standard of care for pro athletes, let alone normal healthy young people), a healthy Tua clearly shows the NFL-level QB skills needed to succeed.   The concern that losing his lower body abilities will affect him are legit - it's just that if he's indeed close to 100 percent, then that's a skill set that is more apt to succeed than Herbert's skill gaps (but still possessing an appealing toolset).   You have to have enough actual NFL-level tools, but a healthy Tua certainly did.  The Q now is whether he's got that full health back or not.    In Herbert's case, it's all about the tools being there, but the skills haven't translated to NFL-level....at all.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Broncofan

[broncosfan_101]

On 2020-04-08 at 12:48 PM, broncos67 said:

Agreed. Bolles/James enter as the starters and they also put a 2nd round tender tag on Wilkinson, didn't they? I would expect to see Denver take a 2nd or 3rd round tackle for a year of development. It makes the most sense, especially because they can buy themselves time on seeing if Bolles turns a corner and James stays healthy.

I think Elway has done a much better job the last few years, so I hope the draft philosophy that had been followed continues to be followed. Denver, IMO, needs contributors with high floors and higher ceilings, especially in Rounds 1/2. This is not the draft to whiff on contributors, especially with a potentially truncated offseason. 

So it’s official: I’m clearly the highest on Bolles here. The penalties are frustrating, but I think the good far outweighs the bad. I would still love to take Thomas! He’ll mash skulls at guard for at least the first year, and then give Elway leverage in negotiations with Bolles on an extension (never mind the insurance on JuWuan). We need a swing OT and a starter inside, and Thomas gives you both. But replacing Bolles wouldn’t be a part of the equation for me, save for the minor extension leverage, but that’s more of a bonus than anything.

[AKRNA]

4 minutes ago, broncosfan_101 said:

So it’s official: I’m clearly the highest on Bolles here. The penalties are frustrating, but I think the good far outweighs the bad. I would still love to take Thomas! He’ll mash skulls at guard for at least the first year, and then give Elway leverage in negotiations with Bolles on an extension (never mind the insurance on JuWuan). We need a swing OT and a starter inside, and Thomas gives you both. But replacing Bolles wouldn’t be a part of the equation for me, save for the minor extension leverage, but that’s more of a bonus than anything.

Actually you're not. I might get that honor.

Edited April 9, 2020 by AKRNA

[BroncosFan2010]

Had to share this as a testament to why I think the dimunitive Amik Robertson can play outside CB. 

https://www.battleredblog.com/2020/4/9/21209937/the-film-room-2020-nfl-draft-amik-robertson-scouting-report

There is a video about halfway down that link that shows the hand power this little guy packs. Going up against a 6'6 245lb receiver he wins at the LOS to the point the WR ends up out of bounds then breaks the pass up but is still angry at himself for missing the INT. Other than just being a great prospect, I love this kid as a culture builder on the defensive side.

 

[paul-mac]

10 hours ago, AKRNA said:

Actually you're not. I might get that honor.

I get frustrated at the penalties as much as anyone. But AKRNA and 101 are two of our best resident OL play evaluators and both are big fans of Bolles.

 

Can I ask you both @broncosfan_101 @AKRNA are you proponents of tagging him with the 5th year option? That would guarantee two more years of control of his rights. 
 

I personally think that we should do that and then draft an athletic freak OT in the mid to late rounds to put with Munchak and see if he can make him the next Alejandro Villanueva. If Bolles plays well in the next two seasons we can always tag him and work out a long term deal, if not then he walks and we bring the young guy in. 

[paul-mac]

Looking at our roster we might need to double dip at safety. It’s Justin Simmons (tag) and Kareem Jackson (old and injury prone) and then a bunch of guys most of us have never heard of.

 

This is something Elway has done twice before (Simmons and Parks in 2016, Rahim Moore and Q Carter in his first draft) and McDaniels did in 09 with Dave Bruton and that scrub Darcel McBath.

 

I like a hitter like Jeremy Chinn on day-2 and a versatile FS/slot corner like Darnay Holmes on day-3. 

[broncosfan_101]

7 hours ago, paul-mac said:

I get frustrated at the penalties as much as anyone. But AKRNA and 101 are two of our best resident OL play evaluators and both are big fans of Bolles.

 

Can I ask you both @broncosfan_101 @AKRNA are you proponents of tagging him with the 5th year option? That would guarantee two more years of control of his rights. 
 

I personally think that we should do that and then draft an athletic freak OT in the mid to late rounds to put with Munchak and see if he can make him the next Alejandro Villanueva. If Bolles plays well in the next two seasons we can always tag him and work out a long term deal, if not then he walks and we bring the young guy in. 

If my math is correct, Bolles’ 5th year option would be worth a shade under $10M. Given that we only have two legitimate tackles on the roster (one of them being completely unreliable), even if we draft one of the top 4 OT’s at 15, there’s no way Bolles won’t be worth $10M to us in 2021.