2020 College Prospects

[paul-mac]

I keep running mock draft scenarios where we end up trading up to the late 1st (SF has 2 first rounders, but nothing until round 5. It’s a home run bet that they trade down)

 

I reckon it’ll either be a WR at 15 and then Fulton/Terrell/Diggs at 31, or maybe Henderson at 15 and then Mims/Reagor at 31 

[BroncosFan2010]

I may be crazy, but after Okudah and CJ I dont think the talent difference between a late R1 CB and whomever will be there at 2.46 is noticeable. 

Then again, I am all aboard Amik Robertson being CB4 after Okudah, CJ and Bryce Hall so my opinion is not popular. 

[Broncofan]

Just now, BroncosFan2010 said:

I may be crazy, but after Okudah and CJ I dont think the talent difference between a late R1 CB and whomever will be there at 2.46 is noticeable. 

Then again, I am all aboard Amik Robertson being CB4 after Okudah, CJ and Bryce Hall so my opinion is not popular. 

I'm in that boat.  Henderson is the only guy who even gets close to high teens.   And again, in Fangio's scheme, what he values more allows them to go after CB's later on who fit the mold later on, with markets devaluing those skill types vs. man-on-island ability (tackling, ability to play with eyes on QB, zone skills <no one will argue with a guy who can blanket, but it's not as prioritized in his scheme>).

Going CB Rd1 would IMO smack of need-based reaches.   I'd be VERY disappointed if that was the result.   We're not 1 guy away.   Hopefully a top 4 T or a top 3 WR are there, they would definitely fit the bill of overall BPA (or so close it's not worth arguing the diff).   Really, we want Derrick Brown and Justin Herbert to go top 10, that would at least ensure a T or WR are there.  I can only hope the FO is banking on none of the top 4 T's being there, which is why they discount it.

[broncos67]

26 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'm in that boat.  Henderson is the only guy who even gets close to high teens.   And again, in Fangio's scheme, what he values more allows them to go after CB's later on who fit the mold later on, with markets devaluing those skill types vs. man-on-island ability (tackling, ability to play with eyes on QB, zone skills <no one will argue with a guy who can blanket, but it's not as prioritized in his scheme>).

Going CB Rd1 would IMO smack of need-based reaches.   I'd be VERY disappointed if that was the result.   We're not 1 guy away.   Hopefully a top 4 T or a top 3 WR are there, they would definitely fit the bill of overall BPA (or so close it's not worth arguing the diff).   Really, we want Derrick Brown and Justin Herbert to go top 10, that would at least ensure a T or WR are there.  I can only hope the FO is banking on none of the top 4 T's being there, which is why they discount it.

I don't think going CB in Round 1 smacks of a need based reach if it's Okudah/Henderson. They would very likely be a Day 1 starter at a position where we have Bouye and an oft-injured Callahan. I would prefer WR to CB, but would understand the logic.

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

I don't think going CB in Round 1 smacks of a need based reach if it's Okudah/Henderson. They would very likely be a Day 1 starter at a position where we have Bouye and an oft-injured Callahan. I would prefer WR to CB, but would understand the logic.

 

Thats what I think we are both saying. Okudah and CJ are a full tier above the rest. They are top-1 and top-20 talents respectively, after them though I dont see a difference worth using capital for to move up. 

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I don't think going CB in Round 1 smacks of a need based reach if it's Okudah/Henderson. They would very likely be a Day 1 starter at a position where we have Bouye and an oft-injured Callahan. I would prefer WR to CB, but would understand the logic.

Okudah won't be there at 15 - heck, I'd give 5-1 odds he won't be there at 10.  It would be an upset if he didn't go top 5, TBH.   If it's Okudah, I'd be gobsmacked at 1.15.   No objection, but I do not believe it's even close to a realistic scenario.    Henderson IMO still a reach, although much smaller.    He's about 18-20 range.   

Now, if the 4 T's and 3 WR's are gone, then the gap isn't as high.  I just have those 4 T's and 3 WR's a tier above Henderson.   It's the difference in tier that matters, not so much the 15th - 18th gap.   But at least it's not a horrible leap as anyone else.

I don't think there's disagreement on this count - if you look at @BroncosFan2010,'s he clearly referencing a pick of CB after Okudah/Henderson.   That would be insanity to the extreme.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Broncofan

[paul-mac]

53 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I don't think going CB in Round 1 smacks of a need based reach if it's Okudah/Henderson. They would very likely be a Day 1 starter at a position where we have Bouye and an oft-injured Callahan. I would prefer WR to CB, but would understand the logic.

Agreed. Okudah and Henderson I’m fine with, any other first round corner had better be after a trade back.

 

If both corners and all three wideouts are gone by 15 we are in a tough spot. I’d guess that would mean one of the OT’s is there which I’m fine with, or even Kinlaw on the DL. But I’d rather try to move down in that case. 

[BroncosFan2010]

Quote

 

If both corners and all three wideouts are gone by 15 we are in a tough spot. I’d guess that would mean one of the OT’s is there which I’m fine with, or even Kinlaw on the DL. But I’d rather try to move down in that case. 

'settling' for one of the OT's or Kinlaw should not be considered a problem. They are all tremendous prospects. I wouldn't trade down if any were available. 

It seems that a lot of people think we are a CB or WR away from contending, that's just not true. We need to take the best talents we can across the board but within reason. 

[broncofan48]

7 minutes ago, BroncosFan2010 said:

'settling' for one of the OT's or Kinlaw should not be considered a problem. They are all tremendous prospects. I wouldn't trade down if any were available. 

It seems that a lot of people think we are a CB or WR away from contending, that's just not true. We need to take the best talents we can across the board but within reason. 

Yeah if you include Henderson as a top option (and I do, only concern is his tackling)

Then there will be a top option available for us at 15, even if only 2 QBs go   If all 3 go, we are guaranteed to get a top player

Burrow
Tua

Herbert

Simmons

Young

Brown

Okudah

Wirfs

Thomas

Becton

Wills

Kinlaw

Juedy

Ruggs

Lamb

Henderson

 

[grizmo78]

By the time the cardinals are picking, we should know whether we need to trade up or not. All we really need is a 3rd QB to be taken before us or one surprise pick in order to a player in the 2nd tier of this draft. If neither are the case by that time, we should be calling for a small trade up with our 4th imo. Even if it's just a pick or two, that should be sufficient to get a quality player we can use. 

[AKRNA]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

I'm in that boat.  Henderson is the only guy who even gets close to high teens.   And again, in Fangio's scheme, what he values more allows them to go after CB's later on who fit the mold later on, with markets devaluing those skill types vs. man-on-island ability (tackling, ability to play with eyes on QB, zone skills <no one will argue with a guy who can blanket, but it's not as prioritized in his scheme>).

Going CB Rd1 would IMO smack of need-based reaches.   I'd be VERY disappointed if that was the result.   We're not 1 guy away.   Hopefully a top 4 T or a top 3 WR are there, they would definitely fit the bill of overall BPA (or so close it's not worth arguing the diff).   Really, we want Derrick Brown and Justin Herbert to go top 10, that would at least ensure a T or WR are there.  I can only hope the FO is banking on none of the top 4 T's being there, which is why they discount it.

I don't know, maybe they're pretty happy with the starting OT's they've got.

[BroncoBruin]

Also don’t know why we discount that they might not like some of these guys, draftnik consensus be damned.

Klis and Allbright have been pretty adamant that they’re NOT taking an OT in the first. Yes, it’s lying season but this front office tends to telegraph their moves. 

[broncos67]

3 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

Also don’t know why we discount that they might not like some of these guys, draftnik consensus be damned.

Klis and Allbright have been pretty adamant that they’re NOT taking an OT in the first. Yes, it’s lying season but this front office tends to telegraph their moves. 

Agreed. Bolles/James enter as the starters and they also put a 2nd round tender tag on Wilkinson, didn't they? I would expect to see Denver take a 2nd or 3rd round tackle for a year of development. It makes the most sense, especially because they can buy themselves time on seeing if Bolles turns a corner and James stays healthy.

I think Elway has done a much better job the last few years, so I hope the draft philosophy that had been followed continues to be followed. Denver, IMO, needs contributors with high floors and higher ceilings, especially in Rounds 1/2. This is not the draft to whiff on contributors, especially with a potentially truncated offseason. 

[Broncofan]

 

 

 

1

8 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

I think Elway has done a much better job the last few years, so I hope the draft philosophy that had been followed continues to be followed. Denver, IMO, needs contributors with high floors and higher ceilings, especially in Rounds 1/2. This is not the draft to whiff on contributors, especially with a potentially truncated offseason. 

No one would argue that Elway hasn't improved on his Day 1-2 struggles from 2013-7 and turned it around the last 2 years.   But he's also not gone with the "must contribute right away", either.   Taking a TE year 1 was always going to be about getting the year 2 jump, and Lock was obviously a project.   Risner was a slam dunk pick from the get-go.   Sutton's year 1 contribution was OK, but hardly impact.    That's the main driver.    Going for year 1 impact outside of Rd1 is a very iffy proposition as the main driver.   Contributors, yes.   Impact, no.   The mentality to draft guys for year 1 impact is the way most teams fail to leverage the best talent.   

Elway's success in Day 1-2 outside of Risner has actually come with guys who have had very little difference-making impact in Year 1 (or are expected to have for last year's class), but a far greater, difference-maker impact at Year 2.   Hopefully that doesn't change - it was the key to his 2011-2 success, when DEN was clearly rebuilding.  Need-based drafting and 1-player-away mentality is what killed him in 2013-7 (along with that weird fixation on tools, insane-ceiling, zero floor guys Day 2).    Hopefully he's learned that lesson for good.

[paul-mac]

This is my big board for 15, the line denotes players who have a realistic shot at being available

 

1. Chase Young

2. Jeff Okudah

3. Isaiah Simmons

4. Derrick Brown

5. Jedrick Wills

————————————

6. Jerry Jeudy

7. Henry Ruggs III

8. Andrew Thomas

9. CeeDee Lamb

10. Tristan Wirfs

11. CJ Henderson

12. Javon Kinlaw

13. Mekhi Becton

14. Kenneth Murray

15. Josh Jones

 

Ideally I want one of the top 12 so we need to hope for as many QBs as possible in the top 10