NFL Draft: What do we need NOW and LATER

[LinderFournette]

6 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I'd imagine viewing Thomas as more of a Guard, probably has to do with how often he seems to end up working with a blocking TE outside him vs certain types of rushers.  He's better working against inside counters than speed around the edge, and more of a bulldozer in the run game than a guy with those elite movement skills on an island.

Better tackle prospect than Cam?  Probably...yeah.  But Cam was also a 2nd round pick, and also hasn't been good enough.  So that's not necessarily where you set the bar.  I mean...if they're drafting a LT prospect in the first place...it's more or less fundamentally an admission that Cam isn't really a LT.  So "better than not good enough" doesn't mean a lot.

Pretty sure cam was considered by alot of media as a 1st round guy and was considered by them as a g/rt

[DuvalsKing]

37 minutes ago, LinderFournette said:

Pretty sure cam was considered by alot of media as a 1st round guy and was considered by them as a g/rt

He was but a lot of these guys that are viewed as 1st rounders.. often slip to 2nd rounds do to teams having runs on positions. Every year you’ll see guys who could have been round 1 picks but end up sliding down boards into round 2. It’s only like 15 players yearly that you can say are locks to go first round picks 15-32 can be toss ups.

[Tugboat]

7 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I just wish we could be one of those teams that doesnt have to spend a premium pick on RB. Supposedly they are a dime a dozen but we never find them that way

I feel like this notion is pretty overstated.  Gets parroted around all the time, and obviously scheme and a top quality OLine are huge factors here.  But just like, a quick tally of the Top-32ish RBs in the league in terms of bulk yardage...the vast majority of them are guys who came out of the 1st/2nd/3rd rounds.  I count ~11 guys who were drafted outside of that range, and most of those were straight up undrafted (some for reasons entirely unrelated to on-field talent).  So...there obviously are exceptions, but roughly 2/3rds of the lead backs in the NFL today, aren't really some "hidden gem found under a rock somewhere".  They're "premium picks" from the Top 2 or 3 rounds of the draft.  I'd say it's pretty typical.

A lot of the "undrafted gems" types, have basically been featured in offenses like the Niners...that are known to briefly turn nobodies into feature backs, only to have them totally flop anywhere else as part of the whole Shannahanigans type pattern.

[Tugboat]

7 hours ago, .Buzz said:

He's on my top 20 big board. I'd be here for him at 20.

Yuck.  I don't get the Jaylon Johnson thing at all.  I'd be okay with him in the 3rd round as a project i guess.

 

But in any case...there's so much smoke connecting us to CB, and an obvious glaring hole there.  We're going to be using one of our first 3 picks on one pretty much guaranteed...and probably one of our 1st rounders.  I just hope it's one i like better than Johnson.

 

6 hours ago, .Buzz said:

 

Such heavy caveats though, with a Top-10 pick.  IF he learns to be a pass rushing presence.  The guy has played three and a half years at a major program...and hasn't really learned to use his traits as a disruptive pass rusher?  Is he suddenly going to learn with a year or two of NFL coaching?  Was the coaching at Auburn that inept?  I mean...it's certainly possible.  I just don't know that i'd be wagering a Top-10 pick on a 3+ year player suddenly evolving a new skillset against much stronger, faster, and more technically proficient competition.

[Tugboat]

5 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Being close to a trade doesnt sound right unless there are so many caveats

I feel like there are always preliminary discussions about these sort of things in the lead-up to the draft.  You want to have some groundwork in place for different scenarios, depending on how the board falls.  It can already be super tight trying to get a trade-down done while on the clock as it is.  This year, i think is going to have even more emphasis on chasing down legwork on potential trades ahead of time...because of the extra logistical hurdles of a "remote draft" due to Covid.

So i'd imagine "close to a trade" is probably the wrong terminology.  But having a pretty solid framework for what a deal like that would look like in the event that the board falls a certain way...i'd be shocked if they didn't have some things in place by now.

 

4 hours ago, .Buzz said:

Burrow, Tua, Young, Simmons, Brown, Okudah, Thomas, Wills, Wirfs, Henderson, Jeudy, Lamb, Ruggs, Kinlaw, Becton. Think there's a slight dropoff after that, but not far, to guys like Kristian Fulton, Justin Jefferson, etc.

The likelihood of there being zero out of the box picks in the top 15 would surprise me though. 

Yeah.  The one thing you can predict with almost absolute certainty about the draft...is that there will be at least a couple unpredictable picks fairly early.  It happens every year.  I don't see why that would suddenly change this year.

[Tugboat]

4 hours ago, DuvalsKing said:

This is why if the Minshew thing fails it’s just not  going to be we’ll just draft a QB next yr I can easily see the Jags winning 5-6 games and easily picking back in the 5-10 territory next yr. 

Yeah.  There are other QBs of interest there...but the idea of just collecting a bunch of picks to trade up for Trevor is pure fantasy - unless something crazy happens during his upcoming season to cast doubt on him as a prospect.  That worst team is keeping that pick and making their selection.

Extra draft capital could give them the ammunition to move up for whoever their "2nd choice" ends up being.  But it's not easy to just waltz in and grab your guy next year, if Minshew doesn't work out.  Part of why i'd like to see them looking at least at a project to get into the system and start working with...so there's something there if Minshew doesn't work out.

 

3 hours ago, LinderFournette said:

Pretty sure cam was considered by alot of media as a 1st round guy and was considered by them as a g/rt

Lots of players are considered 1st rounders every year...and slip to the 2nd round.  A lot of teams did view Cam as a G, i'm sure.  It was talked about extensively, and is probably ultimately the reason he slipped to our pick in the 2nd in actual draft in the first place.

So...if they viewed Cam as a Tackle, and we've seen how that's gone...i think that says a little bit about a guy they allegedly aren't even viewing as having a realistic chance to play there.  They probably don't want to go down that road again, with a questionable/tweener OT/OG guy with a top pick, unless they think they're full value for the pick as an OG.

[.Buzz]

3 hours ago, Tugboat said:

Such heavy caveats though, with a Top-10 pick.  IF he learns to be a pass rushing presence.  The guy has played three and a half years at a major program...and hasn't really learned to use his traits as a disruptive pass rusher?  Is he suddenly going to learn with a year or two of NFL coaching?  Was the coaching at Auburn that inept?  I mean...it's certainly possible.  I just don't know that i'd be wagering a Top-10 pick on a 3+ year player suddenly evolving a new skillset against much stronger, faster, and more technically proficient competition.

Derrick Brown just turned 22. Not generally an age where you assume he is what he is and with the jump to NFL coaches improvements in the pass rush can be improved. Just because he played at Auburn I don't think he should be considered "he is what he is". His size is already elite at the position if he knows how to use it (which he does), so worry about him filling out/adding strength already isn't an issue.

Not to mention he's talking about that addition being the next level thing for him. His tape in college that they do see translating is already at a point that is "special, and something they haven't seen very many times before." I'd say it's fair to assume adding pass rush moves at the next level is very, very feasible under NFL coaches and teammates who probably focus on that more and especially considering he didn't really need anything like that in college to dominate. Very few interior DL or edges I see come out are very refined in having "moves" and a real plan outside of winning on talent coming out. Especially when they dominate without it.

[Forge]

7 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

Fair enough,  I dont love going down to 16(prefer a pick or 2 earlier to be safe) between:

2-3 QBs

3 WRs

4 OTs

Young

Brown

Simmons

Okudah-Henderson

I feel like 16 is beyond the breaking point. 

Hell, I've been worried about 13 being beyond the breaking point for the niners if another QB besides Burrow doesn't go in the top 12 lol

[Tugboat]

37 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Derrick Brown just turned 22. Not generally an age where you assume he is what he is and with the jump to NFL coaches improvements in the pass rush can be improved. Just because he played at Auburn I don't think he should be considered "he is what he is". His size is already elite at the position if he knows how to use it (which he does), so worry about him filling out/adding strength already isn't an issue.

Not to mention he's talking about that addition being the next level thing for him. His tape in college that they do see translating is already at a point that is "special, and something they haven't seen very many times before." I'd say it's fair to assume adding pass rush moves at the next level is very, very feasible under NFL coaches and teammates who probably focus on that more and especially considering he didn't really need anything like that in college to dominate. Very few interior DL or edges I see come out are very refined in having "moves" and a real plan outside of winning on talent coming out. Especially when they dominate without it.

I wouldn't necessarily say that i think he's a "finished product".  I think there are plenty of raw aspects to Brown's game still.  I just feel like at some point...guys with that many high level collegiate games, tend to start to show it...when they have a real knack for getting after the QB.

 

I saw an interesting question proposed the other day.  Which DT would you take as a prospect, right now?  Brown, or Ed Oliver?  I know my answer, without hesitation.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, Forge said:

Hell, I've been worried about 13 being beyond the breaking point for the niners if another QB besides Burrow doesn't go in the top 12 lol

For your team yea I’d be worried since you have far fewer needs. I do think there’s a drop and would love more QBs getting drafted 

[sammymvpknight]

I think everyone is sleeping on the top WRs. I get it...it’s a very deep class. But I have a tough time invisioning a scenario that the guy available at #9 briefing better than Jerry Jeudy. I’d be absolutely shocked if he isn’t a great pro. 

[.Buzz]

3 hours ago, Tugboat said:

I wouldn't necessarily say that i think he's a "finished product".  I think there are plenty of raw aspects to Brown's game still.  I just feel like at some point...guys with that many high level collegiate games, tend to start to show it...when they have a real knack for getting after the QB.

 

I saw an interesting question proposed the other day.  Which DT would you take as a prospect, right now?  Brown, or Ed Oliver?  I know my answer, without hesitation.

Ed Oliver...but they're also two very different types. He's built in your more Donald mold whereas Brown is more Dareus. Both fantastic players, and one that imo we'd be lucky to get at 9 (just like BUF was).

Derrick Brown was a wrecking ball and took on double and triple teams all the time/allowed for others to get their's. That's not going to happen all the time in the NFL. He also played pretty much the entire DL at Auburn and excelled at each one. Didn't miss a single tackle all year (which is also insane).

[.Buzz]

Increases odds of one of the top D prospects falling. If Wills goes to Giants and 1 QB goes to Miami, I expect an OT like Thomas to LAC.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

1 hour ago, sammymvpknight said:

I think everyone is sleeping on the top WRs. I get it...it’s a very deep class. But I have a tough time invisioning a scenario that the guy available at #9 briefing better than Jerry Jeudy. I’d be absolutely shocked if he isn’t a great pro. 

Yea i agree, it is a deep class but he has bonafide #1 potential. You cant pass that up just because the class is deep. He’s a game changer

[JaguarCrazy2832]

28 minutes ago, .Buzz said:

Increases odds of one of the top D prospects falling. If Wills goes to Giants and 1 QB goes to Miami, I expect an OT like Thomas to LAC.

Chargers could go QB too right?