Jump to content

Weekly Bets Thread


BStanRamFan

Recommended Posts

 

To close the 49ers vs. Pack discussion, Vegas took losses with both faves covering.   I do think the ML info was misleading, because standalone ML bets of -350 are just stupid.    Parley payouts using the faves with teased spreads, or low ML's, though, probably did very well.

If you think KC is winning, or the over is hitting, I can't imagine the KC spread or OU will do anything but increase.  The public loves to bet the over, and they love star players.    Cam Newton and the CAR juggernaut vs. DEN in 2015 is a great example IMO of the lean to juggernaut O's over great D's.   I don't know if SF is as elite as DEN 2015 (and not trying to be a homer, DEN's 2015 D by DVOA was legendary, as good as 2001 BAL / 2002 TAM / 2013 SEA, and if they measured DVOA then <they did for fun here>, the 85 Bears), but the comp of matchups is pretty apt - this should be a pick 'em game IMO, but the line is likely moving towards KC as time goes on, barring unforeseen injury news.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm monitoring the line on this game closely. Opened at KC -1.5. I think by the time of game day, it will have swung 3 pts in the other direction with SF -1.5. So if you're on SF, buy it now. If you're high on KC, wait it out. It will likely get close to even.

Also, seeing Bosa at anywhere from 34-1 to 45-1 for SuperBowl MVP.  Kittle is interesting at 6 or 7-1. If Bosa gets 2 sacks and possibly a fumble return for TD, he could lock it. Love those odds. After seeing what Shanahan is willing to do when the run game is working, I don't think he relies on Jimmy G. And if he does have to rely on Jimmy G, I don't see them winning the game at all. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/20/2020 at 1:19 AM, JustAnotherFan said:

Nice. As bad as it may sound, it looks like Coleman going down with an injury played in your favor.

Worked the opposite on me. Had Coleman scoring at TD in two parlays lol Figured Shanahan would favor Coleman because of their experience together in ATL. He was going to score on the drive he got hurt, but thats the way the cookie crumbles. 

What really hurt was the parlay of (Derrick Henry + Damien Williams rush TD)  + (Rodgers and Garoppolo +0.5TD each) $50--> $285

After the early game, I thought it was a lock.....Then Jimmy G threw 10 passes all game and I cried wee, weee, weeee all the way home. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

Also, seeing Bosa at anywhere from 34-1 to 45-1 for SuperBowl MVP.  Kittle is interesting at 6 or 7-1. If Bosa gets 2 sacks and possibly a fumble return for TD, he could lock it. Love those odds. After seeing what Shanahan is willing to do when the run game is working, I don't think he relies on Jimmy G. And if he does have to rely on Jimmy G, I don't see them winning the game at all. 

What are the odds on Mostert? I'd imagine they're not good following his performance this past Sunday, but he'd seem like a good option.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, ET80 said:

What are the odds on Mostert? I'd imagine they're not good following his performance this past Sunday, but he'd seem like a good option.

Latest on Fanduel is 7.5-1. Coleman is expected to be back and I really think Shanahan likes the multi-back approach. NFCCG was an outlier compared to other games this season for SF. Breida will steal carries too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said:

I'm monitoring the line on this game closely. Opened at KC -1.5. I think by the time of game day, it will have swung 3 pts in the other direction with SF -1.5. So if you're on SF, buy it now. If you're high on KC, wait it out. It will likely get close to even.

Also, seeing Bosa at anywhere from 34-1 to 45-1 for SuperBowl MVP.  Kittle is interesting at 6 or 7-1. If Bosa gets 2 sacks and possibly a fumble return for TD, he could lock it. Love those odds. After seeing what Shanahan is willing to do when the run game is working, I don't think he relies on Jimmy G. And if he does have to rely on Jimmy G, I don't see them winning the game at all. 

I'll have to look again, but Bosa wasn't that high on Bovada.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 1/20/2020 at 11:28 AM, SmittyBacall said:

I locked in a sizable bet on the over (54.5 total points). I think this game is going to be silly high-scoring. I can't really imagine either team stopping each other. 

The over is the right bet but with both defensive lines being really strong at rushing the passer I could see defenses getting off the field/forcing a FG attempt. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I always do the props for coin toss, anthem, and first player to score. I was looking at doing Gatorade color this year, but the odds of that bet compared to every other bet seem so much worse, I think it's quite literally a shot in the dark. Going Tails and Under on the anthem this year. Also Chiefs -1. Haven't decided on first player to score yet, gotta look at the odds first.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...