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Weekly Bets Thread

BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted

I had Gainwell 🙄

 

Betrivers had a live bet promo, so I did nab Pacheco at halftime at +275

Goedert needed 20 more to make it a great night, but in the end Philly lost so I'm happy.

 

also I should have stayed quiet about seconding Fortson, my picks on here are cursed 

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N4L

N4L

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I'm excited for the XFL to start this weekend. 8 team league is a good size for gambling imo. Keep in mind defenses are typically ahead of offenses early on. 

I typically don't like to bet early in the season until I get a feel for how the league is going buuuut there are five bets I'm taking for Saturday. 

Arlington is coached by Bob stoops and apparently both his coordinators worked with him previously, so I think it's feasible they are slightly ahead of the curve early on. Vegas is coached by rod woodson who has never coached before and I think it's fair to expect a learning curve week 1 in a start up league. Vegas QBs are nobodies and I'd be shocked if they do anything in week 1. Give me Arlington to win outright.

To be fair, Ibet them -2 earlier in the week and they are -3.5 now, so give me -165 on the ML as well because it's week one of a startup league where teams don't kick XPs (1 pt conversion is 2yards, 2 is 5 yards, 3pt is 10 yards). So scores could get funky. 

Stoops is a defensive coach and the vipers QBs suck as$, so I'll also take the under 

Wade Phillips is Houstons coach. They have some solid talent on D. The team they are playing signed Paxton Lynch late in the year because their other QBs were a$s. You know how bad your QBs have to be for you to sign Paxton Lynch and think he can help your squad?? Give me Houston ML and the under, and also a teaser with Houston +3.5 and the under. Houston should win like 18-6 or something like that. Should be a slooooowwww paced game. 

GLHF 

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NYRaider

NYRaider

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XFL week one:

Las Vegas: 20 at Arlington: 22 (-3.5, O/U: 36) | Arlington wins but doesn't cover, over hits

Orlando: 12 at Houston: 33 (-3.5, O/U: 35) | Houston wins and covers, over hits 

St.Louis: 18 (-2.5, O/U 36.5) at San Antonio: 15 | St.Louis wins and covers, under hits

Seattle: 18 (-1.5, O/U: 36) at Washington DC: 22 | Washington pulls the upset, over hits 

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N4L

N4L

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On 2/19/2023 at 12:31 PM, BobbyPhil1781 said:

Does anyone do round robin bets? I've been reading about them but never made one. I do a pick em for work and we weight 5 games. I usually do well with the weighted games and was thinking a ML round robin for all 5 would be good. Anyone have pros and cons to these types of bets?

It depends on how many teams you include on a per bet basis. I typically do three team RRs where it's obviously three separate two team parlays. I would not recommend doing any round robin where one leg is more than 2 teams. That is a losing proposition in the long run, but I guess its better than doing 5 team parlays. 

If you do three teams ATS and its ~-110, you make a VERY small profit if you win 2/3. You win a lot if you hit all three. So, its good to do them in this scenario if you also play them straight, because the amount you play them straight will be your profit if you win 2/3, but you also still have great upside if you hit all three because you will obviously win all the straight bets as well. 

For the 1000th time in this thread, straight bets should be 80-90% of the total value of your risk for the most part. Parlays should not be your main strategy. (To clarify, I am happy to say it another 1000 times if it helps one person out there make smarter bets than otherwise)

Edited by N4L
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BobbyPhil1781

BobbyPhil1781

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13 hours ago, N4L said:

It depends on how many teams you include on a per bet basis. I typically do three team RRs where it's obviously three separate two team parlays. I would not recommend doing any round robin where one leg is more than 2 teams. That is a losing proposition in the long run, but I guess its better than doing 5 team parlays. 

If you do three teams ATS and its ~-110, you make a VERY small profit if you win 2/3. You win a lot if you hit all three. So, its good to do them in this scenario if you also play them straight, because the amount you play them straight will be your profit if you win 2/3, but you also still have great upside if you hit all three because you will obviously win all the straight bets as well. 

For the 1000th time in this thread, straight bets should be 80-90% of the total value of your risk for the most part. Parlays should not be your main strategy. (To clarify, I am happy to say it another 1000 times if it helps one person out there make smarter bets than otherwise)

This is good info, thank you. My bets would all be MLs b/c we don't do spread in this pick em so the odds of hitting all of them are greatly increased as a result. I've seen RR bets but I've just never looked into what a RR bet was until I saw someone on Twitter posting about them and it peaked my interest. Again, I've only been in this game for 2 months so I'm still trying to learn as much as I can prior to next season starting so I'll be more educated about everything. 

And most of my bets are straight as well. This would simply be something to change things up from time to time. 

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adamq

adamq

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18 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Daniel Jeremiah has Tyree Wilson as the first edge off the board in his new mock draft, he said people around the league love him. If Chicago stays put I wonder if it could be another Travon Walker type of situation. Last time I checked he was +20,000 to go #1 overall. 

Yep, 200-1 on DK right now. I threw 5 bucks on it just in case 😉

 

$2.45 was the limit, had to use the wife's account too

Edited by adamq
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N4L

N4L

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A non NFL bet I placed today: Caleb williams to win the heisman at +400. 

Outside of injury, I feel very confident that he will be a finalist at worst based on name value. Pac12 isn't known for defense so he should put up some great numbers with Lincoln Riley, and he is about as surefire a pick for #1 overall as Trevor Lawrence was after his sophomore season. 

Yes, its a looooooong time to have a futures bet out there, but I look at this in two ways:

1) It's probably the best number I will be able to get on him 

2) if he makes it to the finals, I will be in a great spot to hedge if need be

I know basically no one has won two heismans, but how many QBs have won as sophomores? Also, Lincoln has had three qbs win the heisman since 2017. Thats crazy. 

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BobbyPhil1781

BobbyPhil1781

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17 hours ago, N4L said:

A non NFL bet I placed today: Caleb williams to win the heisman at +400. 

Outside of injury, I feel very confident that he will be a finalist at worst based on name value. Pac12 isn't known for defense so he should put up some great numbers with Lincoln Riley, and he is about as surefire a pick for #1 overall as Trevor Lawrence was after his sophomore season. 

Yes, its a looooooong time to have a futures bet out there, but I look at this in two ways:

1) It's probably the best number I will be able to get on him 

2) if he makes it to the finals, I will be in a great spot to hedge if need be

I know basically no one has won two heismans, but how many QBs have won as sophomores? Also, Lincoln has had three qbs win the heisman since 2017. Thats crazy. 

Your logic is very sound and makes a lot of sense.

I am likely to jump on the McCord or Brown bandwagon based on who looks better in the spring game. We have no clue who the starter is but there's a slight lean to McCord b/c he's been around an extra year and rightfully so. Both are very talented QBs and OSU is bringing back almost the entire offense but they are bringing back every skill position player. Literally, every single one (yes, JSN isn't but he played like 30 snaps last season). People like to forget how dominant Trevyon was as a true freshman and he was hurt all year last year plus Miyan took big steps forward. This will take a lot of pressure off him during the first 3 games before heading to South Bend.

Assuming the line holds up, there's no reason to think whoever wins the job won't be putting up huge numbers in this offense. Can't forget that McCord and MHJ were teammates all four years in high school. There will likely be very little learning curve from them.

W/ McCord being at +2000 and Brown being at +8000, it's an easy bet IMO.

Edited by BobbyPhil1781
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