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Weekly Bets Thread


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18 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

FDS current odds to be the #1 pick: Bryce Young (-150), Will Anderson (+500), Jalen Carter (+500)

If the Bears standpat, Anderson / Carter could both be really good value at +500. I also like Tyree Wilson (+20,000) as a hail mary play. 

@N4L @Broncofan

As much as I hate being a square I think it’s a given CHI trades out.  HOU & IND both want QB and both get to make the other team take the 2nd guy instead of the top guy (in their minds) by moving / staying ahead of the other.   Both spots guarantee CHI gets one of the 2 elite defenders as well.  It all lines up.  

Edited by Broncofan
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3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

As much as I hate being a square I think it’s a given CHI trades out.  HOU & IND both want QB and both get to make the other team take the 2nd guy instead of the top guy (in their minds) by moving / staying ahead of the other.   Both spots guarantee CHI gets one of the 2 elite defenders as well.  It all lines up.  

I think the only way they're able to trade the pick is if the Colts love Young and value him significantly more than Stroud. But based on their past QBs, I think they'll favor a more traditional pocket passer like Stroud.

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13 hours ago, adamq said:

Basketball, but Lebron under 32.5 points -105 dk.

Even for a normal night this would be a great play, but Lebron is 36 away from the record. He will beat it on Thursday vs Milwaukee with Kareem in attendance, not tonight against OKC. Big game from AD incoming tonight 

Woof, what a way to wake up. I went to bed an hour before tip off. 🤣

 

My fault for not factoring in the Lakers are absolute garbage and can barely keep up with SGA & the OKC tanks.

 

I'll keep basketball out of this thread from here on out 🙃

 

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2 hours ago, adamq said:

Woof, what a way to wake up. I went to bed an hour before tip off. 🤣

 

My fault for not factoring in the Lakers are absolute garbage and can barely keep up with SGA & the OKC tanks.

 

I'll keep basketball out of this thread from here on out 🙃

 

all good dude! with 1 game left, I feel like this thread should still be used for other bets. Plenty of UFC/MMA money to be made

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KC ML 

I really like Pacheco in this game. Eagles LBs and secondary are not strong tacklers. Pacheco runs HARD. The eagles run D can be had, especially because I think they will decide to essentially concede a numbers advantage in the run game to prevent mahomes from cooking. KC runs a lot of 3 TE sets and will pass a lot out of that formation. So I expect Reid to have a plan to really attack PHI on the ground, especially early in the game. Reddick last week was not biting on PA, I think their DL will employ similar tactics this week and that KC will be ready for it. Give me the over 49 Pacheco rush yards, and for Pacheco to lead the game in rushing (+300). I especially like that last bet because the eagles use so many different RBs. Mckinnon could certainly bust a big run as well, but I think Pacheco has secured the lead role in the run game. 

I am going to tease KC up to +7 but am trying to decide if it will be with the over 45 or the under 57. Tilting on that, would love to hear what everyone thinks about the total.

Jalen Hurts is injured. His accuracy looked very spotty downfield last week. He was grimacing in pain late in the game last week when he got hit while he ran. I am taking the under 238 passing yards

Skyy Moore has had an up and down season. He is talented and it is a complicated offense. They put him at PR early in the season and he muffed two punts. I think it really killed his confidence. Last week, he returned a punt at the end of the game to put them very close to FG range. He looked hyped and I think it was a huge confidence boost for him. He hurt his hand late in the year but I think he is healthy now. His rec prop is 7.5 yards. He only caught 22 passes this year but his YPC as 11. Everyone loves Toney, and for good reason, they manufacture easy touches for him that do not require a lot of thinking, whereas for Skyy they have asked more of him in terms of diagnosing coverages, but I think given the longer week of prep, they will try and get Skyy involved in this game. This is more of a hunch but I think its just such a low number and I think he will get it in one catch. 

I want to take Kelce props but his back is hurt and the numbers are inflated. Might pivot to MVS, or Noah Gray. 

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2 hours ago, N4L said:

am going to tease KC up to +7 but am trying to decide if it will be with the over 45 or the under 57. Tilting on that, would love to hear what everyone thinks about the total

As you said, with an injured Hurts plus KC likely focusing on a strong running game I would lean to the under

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Hurts being injured certainly doesn't help them but at the same time, the Eagle's lines are so good and it's his non-throwing shoulder. Mahomes ankle has to be bothering him as well and I have to believe the Eagles will get after him more than the Bengals did. I honestly like Philly by at least a TD here. I know the injury reports look clean but KC got banged up pretty good against Cincy and these guys might still be feeling it. 

Still trying to figure out which prop bets to get in on

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