11sanchez11 Posted September 4, 2023 Share Posted September 4, 2023 On 9/3/2023 at 4:05 PM, SmittyBacall said: That's not even true. I would be surprised if Kyler isn't playing by week 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 13 hours ago, 11sanchez11 said: That's not even true. I would be surprised if Kyler isn't playing by week 8 What's not true? The money owed or the prediction? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 (edited) @Broncofan Chris Jones potentially out (contract) on Thursday. We can already see it affecting the line (KC -7 to -6.5). Thoughts on David Montgomery over 48.5 rushing yards? Current depth behind Jones (not good): Derrick Nnadi, Keondre Coburn Tershawn Wharton, Neil Farrell Edited September 5, 2023 by SmittyBacall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BStanRamFan Posted September 5, 2023 Author Share Posted September 5, 2023 I'm a handicapper for Pickswise.com and share my player props weekly. Happy to share on here if anyone is interested. David Montgomery O48.5 rushing yards (-110) Patrick Mahomes O3.5 rush attempts (+135) ---> these odds are gone. Lost value. Down to -145 Also, I see value in Justin Watson. He's been raved about all camp. More routes than Ross/Rice in the preseason. Reid loves him. Mahomes trusts him and outside of Kelce, Sky Moore/MVS/Toney are a crap shoot weekly for who Mahomes will favor. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 51 minutes ago, BStanRamFan said: I'm a handicapper for Pickswise.com and share my player props weekly. Happy to share on here if anyone is interested. David Montgomery O48.5 rushing yards (-110) Patrick Mahomes O3.5 rush attempts (+135) ---> these odds are gone. Lost value. Down to -145 Also, I see value in Justin Watson. He's been raved about all camp. More routes than Ross/Rice in the preseason. Reid loves him. Mahomes trusts him and outside of Kelce, Sky Moore/MVS/Toney are a crap shoot weekly for who Mahomes will favor. Thanks for sharing, I'll definitely give you a follow on Twitter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Some of the game bets I'm eyeing: Raiders (ML, +172) at Broncos Packers (ML, +100) at Bears Dolphins (ML, +138) at Chargers Bills (-2.5) at Jets Titans (ML, +146) at Saints Jaguars (-4.5) at Colts Steelers (ML, +120) vs 49ers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Something to consider if you're betting dogs with the spread this year: something crazy like 70% of dogs who cover 6 or fewer points also win outright. So if you're taking a dog +4, +5, +6...it's worth heavily considering taking the ML. I know it's scarier, but long term it's the right play. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 (edited) 3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: @Broncofan Chris Jones potentially out (contract) on Thursday. We can already see it affecting the line (KC -7 to -6.5). Thoughts on David Montgomery over 48.5 rushing yards? Current depth behind Jones (not good): Derrick Nnadi, Keondre Coburn Tershawn Wharton, Neil Farrell Absolutely. Only way this fails outside of injury is if DET gets behind big early and even then ball control is the way to shorten the game and limit Mahomes & co. Excellent call by you & @Rainmaker90. I’ll play Monty at that number for 2U. Only reason I’ll avoid the alt lines is if KC gets up big then much harder to get to 70/90+. Other than the boost with Mahomes pass yards, I haven’t found a great value with KC esp with the spread WR distribution. Edited September 5, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Absolutely. Only way this fails outside of injury is if DET gets behind big early and even then ball control is the way to shorten the game and limit Mahomes & co. Excellent call by you & @Rainmaker90. I’ll play Monty at that number for 2U. Other than the boost with Mahomes pass yards, I haven’t found a great value with KC esp with the spread WR distribution. Sounds good. Furthermore, I just read Chiefs DT Tershawn Warton (knee) was limited in Monday’s practice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Ray Reed said: Something to consider if you're betting dogs with the spread this year: something crazy like 70% of dogs who cover 6 or fewer points also win outright. So if you're taking a dog +4, +5, +6...it's worth heavily considering taking the ML. I know it's scarier, but long term it's the right play. Yup if you do the math - 89 percent of teams that cover the spread of 6 pts or less (or favorites) win outright. Obv all the ATS favorites win the game too (duh). The dog hit rate has been close to 60 percent the last 2 years but that’s all spreads. But that number alone means it has to be a 70+ percent win rate for dogs even if dogs covered less than 40 percent of spreads of 6 or less. The one key element is you have to do it consistently and for long stretches of time. Otherwise SSS variation can kill a bankroll but in terms of maxing yield / return it’s a winner strategy. #1 (bet dogs, and bet to win more on spreads of 6 or less) on my post to newbies a couple of pages back. But you have to commit - if you only bet 10-20 games in a year you’re more likely to see SSS variation. Edited September 5, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: The money owed Yes. Dude is just taking a guess based on how he knows NFL contracts work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 1 hour ago, NYRaider said: Some of the game bets I'm eyeing: Raiders (ML, +172) at Broncos Packers (ML, +100) at Bears Dolphins (ML, +138) at Chargers Bills (-2.5) at Jets Titans (ML, +146) at Saints Jaguars (-4.5) at Colts Steelers (ML, +120) vs 49ers I like GB & PIT plays for sure. SF OL and Purdy's low rep #, along with playing at PIT, make it very tempting (I think SF will be fine in reg season this year, but week 1 there's a big rust / PT edge to PIT here with Purdy & OL)...and of course, no Bosa. The MIA & TEN games I hesitate on because their OL situations are horrible right now. JAX-IND, BUF-NYJ & LV-DEN I have no real lean to, if I had to, I'd go NYJ TBH. DEN I'm not objective lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainmaker90 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Just now, Broncofan said: I like GB & PIT plays for sure. SF OL and Purdy's low rep #, along with playing at PIT, make it very tempting (I think SF will be fine in reg season this year, but week 1 there's a big rust / PT edge to PIT here with Purdy & OL)...and of course, no Bosa. The MIA & TEN games I hesitate on because their OL situations are horrible right now. JAX-IND, BUF-NYJ & LV-DEN I have no real lean to, if I had to, I'd go NYJ TBH. DEN I'm not objective lol. I’m also in on Pitt and GB already. Will very likely be on Buffalo Monday too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stl4life07 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 Caesar’s has a promo that if you bet on who will win the Superbowl you get $5 bonus bets for each win up to $50. I bet the Chiefs bc they have a great shot to win plus I know they will win at least 10 games so that’s 10 free $5 bonus bets. And if they win it all I get $350. So I think it’s a great deal all around. And if you aren’t aware go join for bet $50 get $250 promo for them as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted September 5, 2023 Share Posted September 5, 2023 44 minutes ago, stl4life07 said: Caesar’s has a promo that if you bet on who will win the Superbowl you get $5 bonus bets for each win up to $50. I bet the Chiefs bc they have a great shot to win plus I know they will win at least 10 games so that’s 10 free $5 bonus bets. And if they win it all I get $350. So I think it’s a great deal all around. And if you aren’t aware go join for bet $50 get $250 promo for them as well. Fanduel and BetRivers have the exact same promo too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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