Weekly Bets Thread

[NYRaider]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

JAX-IND, BUF-NYJ & LV-DEN I have no real lean to, if I had to, I'd go NYJ TBH.   DEN I'm not objective lol. 

I think the Colts are going to be horrendous this year and Richardson gets off to a slow start.

[11sanchez11]

5 hours ago, BStanRamFan said:

I'm a handicapper for Pickswise.com

the ppl at pickwise are so good. my go to for using promos on sports i don't watch (like dk gives out a 50% mlb boost almost everyday and it would dumb not to use so i'll tail pickwise). 

[BStanRamFan]

1 minute ago, 11sanchez11 said:

the ppl at pickwise are so good. my go to for using promos on sports i don't watch (like dk gives out a 50% mlb boost almost everyday and it would dumb not to use so i'll tail pickwise). 

Alot of sharp minds on the site, I really like working for them.

My name is @PropHolliday specializing in player props for them. I'll also be doing some video content as well. 

Last plug: I have my own show on BLeav network called "The Prop Shop" coming out every Friday on Apple/Spotify/Youtube going through the Sunday slate of games. 

 

 

 

[adamq]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Yup if you do the math - 89 percent of teams that cover the spread of 6 pts or less (or favorites) win outright.   Obv all the ATS favorites win the game too (duh).   The dog hit rate has been close to 60 percent the last 2 years but that’s all spreads.   But that number alone means it has to be a 70+ percent win rate for dogs even if dogs covered less than 40 percent of spreads of 6 or less.  
 

The one key element is you have to do it consistently and for long stretches of time.   Otherwise SSS variation can kill a bankroll but in terms of maxing yield / return it’s a winner strategy.    #1 (bet dogs, and bet to win more on spreads of 6 or less) on my post to newbies a couple of pages back.   But you have to commit - if you only bet 10-20 games in a year you’re more likely to see SSS variation. 

Speaking of, I already was eyeing Detroit ML, this Kelce news makes it really tempting 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

Speaking of, I already was eyeing Detroit ML, this Kelce news makes it really tempting 

If you can get the DK 7-point up auto-win bet, it's a mega-value IMO.

[N4L]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

10 hours ago, Ray Reed said:

Something to consider if you're betting dogs with the spread this year: something crazy like 70% of dogs who cover 6 or fewer points also win outright. So if you're taking a dog +4, +5, +6...it's worth heavily considering taking the ML. I know it's scarier, but long term it's the right play.

Yup if you do the math - 89 percent of teams that cover the spread of 6 pts or less (or favorites) win outright.   Obv all the ATS favorites win the game too (duh).   The dog hit rate has been close to 60 percent the last 2 years but that’s all spreads.   But that number alone means it has to be a 70+ percent win rate for dogs even if dogs covered less than 40 percent of spreads of 6 or less.  
 

The one key element is you have to do it consistently and for long stretches of time.   Otherwise SSS variation can kill a bankroll but in terms of maxing yield / return it’s a winner strategy.    #1 (bet dogs, and bet to win more on spreads of 6 or less) on my post to newbies a couple of pages back.   But you have to commit - if you only bet 10-20 games in a year you’re more likely to see SSS variation. 

I would like to add to this that it is acceptable to split your bets. 

40% on the ML at + odds

60% on the spread at -110

Hopefully you win both, but if you cover but don't win outright, you still make some money. You can bet the same game in multiple ways.

Another example of this is for overs/unders. I will sometimes go 50% on an over, 25% on the over of one team's total, and 25% on the over of the other team's total (or under). I do not do it for all totals, but when I think a game is going to be a back and forth high scoring affair, sometimes you can do this to eliminate some risk, because chances are one team scores enough points to cover their team total. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I would like to add to this that it is acceptable to split your bets. 

40% on the ML at + odds

60% on the spread at -110

Hopefully you win both, but if you cover but don't win outright, you still make some money. You can bet the same game in multiple ways.

Another example of this is for overs/unders. I will sometimes go 50% on an over, 25% on the over of one team's total, and 25% on the over of the other team's total (or under). I do not do it for all totals, but when I think a game is going to be a back and forth high scoring affair, sometimes you can do this to eliminate some risk, because chances are one team scores enough points to cover their team total. 

Absolutely reasonable to go with this approach.   Taking advantage of the ML phenomenon is the main message, going by ATS alone is leaving $ on the table.   For the exact reason of being able to tolerate SSS variance, though, and to keep bankrolls more positive overall, what you describe is fiscally responsible, but still leveraging the increased value of ML hits.    

[Broncofan]

Lines are still trickling in - Brandon Johnson +650 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK stands out given Jeudy likely out.  And even if Jeudy plays Johnson is part of their RZ package.  

Edited September 6, 2023 by Broncofan

[SmittyBacall]

On 9/4/2023 at 2:14 PM, Broncofan said:

2 more SUN games have TD props out so 3 more plays I’m taking (adding in my SUN plays so it’s 1 spot):: 

SUN

Early

1 & 2.  Cole Turner +1600 / +25000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U & John Bates +900 / +10000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - The books assume Logan Thomas will play but he just returned to practice from a calf strain.   Howell has mega connection with Turner in preseason.  And if Turner is inactive then the bet voids but Thomas is +235 right now so if he’s inactive both lines drop a ton.  I’ll put more on Turner as he’s the move TE if Thomas sits.  

3.  Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +7000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U FD - if he wasn’t coming back from injury (returned from practice Fri) I’d call this my best value play.   He’s still playable here on DK it’s +370.   
 

Late

4.   Donald Parham +800 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - still the RZ guy they bring in for 1-2 EZ targets a game.  
 

5.  RB Chris Brooks +1500 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - This play may be inactive but if he’s active could be the GL hammer with MIA, as Mostert never takes this role and Achane / Ahmed are both returning from injury & Achane is a scat back.   If he’s inactive it voids but if Ahmed doesn’t play I could easily see Brooks as the GL back week 1.  
 

Since I’m restricted at B365 - always check there too for better odds.   That’s  5 TD props for Sunday (WAS TE’s not named Logan Thomas) to go with Justyn Ross on TNF, so that’s enough for now.   

In addition to these plays I'll be adding Bengals RB/KR Chris Evans +1200 / +12500 Anytime TD 0.5 / 0.1 B365 - In the mix to spell Mixon on passing downs. Trayveon Williams returning from injury - health/role TBD. Chase Brown likely inactive.

Edited September 6, 2023 by SmittyBacall

[Ray Reed]

I may be absolutely nuts but I'm taking Nelson Agholor 2+ TDs +11000

Andrews is playing but has missed practice the last week or so. Dobbins and Bateman missed most of camp.

Agholor could very well find himself on the field a lot this week in a game where i'm sure Lamar and Monken want to show off the new offense.

Worth a sprinkle IMO

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Lines are still trickling in - Brandon Johnson +650 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK stands out given Jeudy likely out.  And even if Jeudy plays Johnson is part of their RZ package.  

OK I’ve updated my SUN ATS/ML plays below - again if you can’t get similar odds do NOT tail the TD plays.   The player yardage props will def be closer across the books but they’re not out yet:  

SUN ATS/ML 

1.  PIT ML +120 (+2) vs. SF - no Bosa, OL having issues, Kittle iffy and Purdy slow ramp up.   Add in travel east and PIT WR being able to exploit the SF secondary (and Pickett isn’t ascendant but he’s not going to be Trubisky level bad - which is all they need this week).   I think SF is fine for the season but this is an ideal dog play. 

2.  GB ML +100 (+1.5) @ CHI - I really like where CHI is headed - but GB still has a great OL, 2-headed run game and D that gives bad OL / non-elite QB O fits.   Jordan Love doesn’t have to be great to win this game   

3.  NYJ ML +120 vs. BUF - this isn’t about A-Rod, it’s about the Jets being a matchup problem for BUF.    The OL issues they’ve had and Josh Allen are the only reasons I pause but that D is legit.   Add in no Von Miller and now Micah Hyde hurting I’ll trust my gut here.  I’ll still have BUF winning the division but I’m giving the Jets their home win in a split series for 2023.   

3U for ATS/ML so far….

Edited September 6, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Ray Reed said:

I may be absolutely nuts but I'm taking Nelson Agholor 2+ TDs +11000

Andrews is playing but has missed practice the last week or so. Dobbins and Bateman missed most of camp.

Agholor could very well find himself on the field a lot this week in a game where i'm sure Lamar and Monken want to show off the new offense.

Worth a sprinkle IMO

his prop to get 1 is +1200 on DK that seems like a steal grizzly vet wr.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Betting Buffalo, Jacksonville, Dallas and Cincinnati all feel so trappy. Road favorites in divisional games is just an auto dog or pass game

[Ray Reed]

54 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

his prop to get 1 is +1200 on DK that seems like a steal grizzly vet wr.

Betting that as well.

[Broncofan]

For DK users it pays to check between 5-7 PM ET - they’ve been offering boosts for $25 max which are pretty appealing.  It’s meant to get ppl hooked on winning so they keep betting in season.  They’re normal -200 plays they’re offering for +100.    It’s basically a 50 percent boost.   
 

TNF had Mahomes 275+ pass yds +100.    Yesterday they had Jalen Hurts or Justin Fields rush TD (again for +100).   Today it’s Ja’marr Chase & Justin Jefferson 50+ Rec yds again for +100.   

Fanduel is offering 50% deposit bonuses (max $100 return), and no extra play through.   And they’re combining it with a 25% bonus bet (up to $50) for bets made on week 1 (you need to accept the offers FWIW).   Again please only use what you can afford - but pre-week 1 is where books will offer extra $ so it makes sense to take advantage.   
 

Now a huge PSA after week 1 - it pays to check boosts as often they’re not a good deal.    Once the books have the ppl in, the boosts offered aren’t close to good value - so don’t automatically assume boost offers are good.     But with pre-week 1 Super Boosts bets - the books are trying to give $ away to hook new bettors to keep playing all season long.   So keep checking this week (and be more than a little skeptical after the first 1-2 weeks lol) .   BOL! 

Edited September 6, 2023 by Broncofan