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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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101Raider

101Raider

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Juwan Johnson's yardage prop has risen from 26.5 to 28.5 on most books - I still think it's very playable.  DK hasn't put up alt lines, but FD finally did at 50+ rec yds +280 and 70+ rec yds at +680, so I took the 1U & 0.5U alt line.  TEN's a bottom 5 TE D last year in yardage, and Juwan runs both short and seam routes, so chunk yardage is there.   I have him projected at 4/45, so the alt lines are too good to pass up at those odds.

Juwan's TD prop on FD went down (along with DK), then came back up (DK stayed down), so I'm going to go +320 / +3000 2+ TD's at 1.2U / 0.3U on FD.  I may regret this if the last-hour TD odds increase happens, but I think with news that Mark Andrews is out, while Isiaih Likely will get a lot of talk, Juwan's name is going to pop up a ton.

That's definitely it though, as I've now hit 30U for Sunday and 31U overall.   Ideally I'm somewhere between 20U-25U, but week 1 often provides more opps for value.   Entire Sunday card is update on my Page 304 - linked below.  BOL!

 

Love the Juwan bets, Carr loves his TEs.  
 

I also am taking Jamaal Williams o8.5 receiving. He didn’t do much of it with Detroit, but is certainly capable of it. Carr is a check down machine, he’s getting all the rb work and NO utilizes their rbs as pass catchers.

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
On 9/7/2023 at 10:02 AM, SmittyBacall said:

@Broncofan Thoughts on Khalil Herbert o8.5 receiving yards and milestone 25 at +450? His 56 yard screen is sticking out from the preseason, though from what I'm reading it appears rookie Roschon Johnson will be the passing game back. 8.5 just seems bizarrely low for a starting RB that should see 12-15 touches.

Cashed 2 snaps in.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 9/4/2023 at 2:14 PM, Broncofan said:

More SUN games have TD props out so 3 more plays I’m taking (adding in my SUN plays so it’s 1 spot):: 

SUN ATS/ML 

1.  PIT ML +120 (+2) vs. SF - no Bosa, OL having issues, Kittle iffy and Purdy slow ramp up.   Add in travel east and PIT WR being able to exploit the SF secondary (and Pickett isn’t ascendant but he’s not going to be Trubisky level bad - which is all they need this week).   I think SF is fine for the season but this is an ideal dog play. 

2.  GB ML +100 (+1.5) @ CHI - I really like where CHI is headed - but GB still has a great OL, 2-headed run game and D that gives bad OL / non-elite QB O fits.   Jordan Love doesn’t have to be great to win this game   

MNF

3.  NYJ ML +120 vs. BUF - this isn’t about A-Rod, it’s about the Jets being a matchup problem for BUF.    The OL issues they’ve had and Josh Allen are the only reasons I pause but that D is legit.   Add in no Von Miller and now Micah Hyde hurting I’ll trust my gut here.  I’ll still have BUF winning the division but I’m giving the Jets their home win in a split series for 2023.   

3U for ATS/ML so far….

 

SUN PLAYER PROPS 

EARLY

1.  JK Dobbins o55.5U rush yds 2.2U to win 2U, 75+ rush yds +210, 100+ rush yds +650 0.5U - HOU  run D still their weakness and Dobbins the clear lead.   I have 70-75 yds projected so clear alt line play.  

2.  Calvin Ridley o57.5 Rec yds (already up to 60.5) 2.2U to win 2U - sadly alt lines weren’t out when main line came out - and now alt lines on DK of 75/100 aren’t as juicy (+140 & +360).  Will look to see if FD better when they release alt lines.   #4 confidence play 

3. Juwan Johnson o26.5 Rec yds  2.2U to win 2U DK, 50+ rec yds +280 1U FD, 70+ rec yds 0.5U FD - Carr loves the TE he’s the top guy.   Carr also told his brother to draft him in fantasy lol.   More importantly TEN has a top 3 run D but leaky secondary - bottom 5 vs. TE's last year in yardage allowed.   With Kamara suspended I also think they use the TE more - I have him at 4-45 as my projection, so have to take the alt lines

4.  Jahan Dotson o43.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U, 75+ +340 1U & 100+ +950 0.5U DK - even with Terry Mclaurin likely playing I think this is a smash spot with Ari pass D and Sam Howell’s connection with him, plus Mclaurin battling turf toe.   I have him at 5/65+ as the projection, so alt line play.   #2 confidence play.

5.  Sam Howell O20.5 rush yds 2.2U to win 2U - Howell is a very mobile QB, while the WAS OL is improved, it’s still a work in progress - when you combine those 2, that’s a recipe for rush yds.   Projecting 4-5 runs for 30+ yds.  


LATE 


6.  Tyler Higbee o41.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U and 75+ +340 1U - no Kupp and SEA TE pass funnel D.    I have 5-65 as the projection so have to take an alt line shot too. #1 confidence play.     

7.  Rhamondre Stephenson o18.5 Rec yds 2.2U to win 2U, 50+ +550 1U - phi pass D and pass rush again funnels RB work.  Rhamondre not only gets 5+ targets a game his usage may be higher with WR’s hurt.    I have 5/35 projected so I have to take 50+ at +550.  #3 confidence play

That's 20.5U in 7 plays, probably 1-2 more than I had planned, but Howell & Dobbins' numbers were way too low to pass up on.

 

SUN LONGSHOT TD 

EARLY

1 & 2.  Cole Turner +1600 / +25000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U & John Bates +900 / +10000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK -  Logan Thomas is back, but likely to split time.    Howell has mega connection with Turner in preseason.  If Turner is inactive then the bet voids.  I’ll put more on Turner as he’s the move TE if Thomas sits.  

3.  Rasheed Shaheed +600 / +7000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U FD - if he wasn’t coming back from injury (returned from practice Fri) I’d call this my best value play.   He’s still playable here on DK it’s +370.   

4.  Juwan Johnson +320 / +3000 2+ 1.2U/0.3U FD - I may regret taking it now instead of noon tomorrow, when there may be a last-minute rate increase.   But I have to take the guy that has such a crazy mismatch and known top 2 target in the RZ.

 

LATE

5.   Donald Parham +800 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - still the RZ guy they bring in for 1-2 EZ targets a game.  

6.  RB Chris Brooks +1500 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - This play may be inactive but if he’s active could be the GL hammer with MIA, as Mostert never takes this role and Achane / Ahmed are both returning from injury & Achane is a scat back.   If he’s inactive it voids.

7.  Brandon Johnson +750 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - Johnson stands out given Jeudy likely out.  And even if Jeudy plays Johnson is part of their RZ package.

8.  Roschon Johnson +900 FD (now +800), +7500 DK 0.4U / 0.1U - FD doesn’t do 2-TD plays once you get super LONGSHOT territory so I’m splitting this.  He’s the pass receiving back and could be in the 2-minute drill.   Because Fields could easily vulture a TD (and it’s a rookie debut - see Gibbs) it’s only a 0.5U play.

SNF

9.   Lawrence Cager +2500 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK - this is likely a void if Darren Waller plays.   But if Waller is inactive, this is just too much value.   Daniel Bellinger is the backup TE, but Cager is the Parham-type receiving option.  It's NOT playable even at +800 or +1000, but at +2500 it’s worth a 0.5U play.    

 

Since I’m restricted at B365 - always check there too for better odds.   That’s  3U for ML plays, 20.5U on 7 player props & 8 TD props for 7.5U for Sunday, although I think good chance 2 TD plays will void (Brooks & Cager).     At 31U its definitely time to stop.  BOL!

Well, a rough early slate (Dobbins getting hurt, weather & TO's led WAS to contract gameplan for the pass O) got smoking hot with the late games hitting both player props and 2 more longshot TD's:

WEEK 1

ATS 1-1 (1-1 today), even - PIT ML awful call, GB great call.   NYJ +120 ML left.    

PLAYER PROPS 5-5 -0.5U (4-3 today, +3.2U today) - the Stephenson alt line hitting was massive, Higbee / Juwan-Johnson / Ridley all hitting was great, WAS props missing bad weather and Howell 2 TO's in 1H contracting the game plan once they got the lead in 2H - Dobbins just unfortunate, it happens.      

TD PROPS - 3-7, +9.3U (3-6 today, +10.3U - Shaheed +600, Parham +800 & Roschon Johnson +900).   AWESOME TD prop day, and frankly, Donald Parham (1 TD and 3 EZ targets) & Rasheed Shaheed were THIS close to a 2nd TD, and Brandon Johnson was targeted and open in EZ, but Russell Wilson was  a hair late and tipped away.  

So close to an amazing day, but I'll take the +12.5U Sunday after the -3.7U TNF start.   NET WEEK so far +8.8U with 37U stake.   

Edited by Broncofan
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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, adamq said:

I'd love to find a Jalen Hyatt alt yards prop. I Daboll getting him 50+ on just one or two plays, his o/u is 19.5

 

Love love love Atlanta -3.5, also in on Miami ML

 

Worried about my 49ers, not even a prop I want to play in that game...

Whelp, it's OK I ended up skipping on the Niners. Game was maximum fun without anything on it. What a wild day so far

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

WEEK 1 MNF 

ATS/ML (1-1, even) 

NYJ +120 ML 1U - already covered before.  

PLAYER PROPS (5-5, -0.5U) 

Josh Allen o36.5 rush yds 2U - with such good coverage and a good pass rush, this usually translates to Allen rush yards.   No alt lines out yet I’ll see what they offer on FD for 60+.  

Dalton Kincaid o26.5 Rec yds 2U, 50+ Rec yds +320 1U DK - the NYJ CB’s are great.   Kincaid is the true slot guy.   Def some risk because he’s a rookie making his debut but gotta trust my evals.  

LONGSHOT TD (3-8, +8.8U) 

Trent Sherfield +1300 or better FD 0.4U / +8000 2+ 0.2U DK - I say +900 or better because if you wait until last hour before Gametime the TD odds for longshots usually increase (unless their role changes).  Given his size I think he plays the RZ big slot (while Deonte Harty plays between 20’s).    

Khalil Shakir +1000 0.4U  FD (LATE ENTRY 0745 PM) - given the crazy last minute odds boost, have to hedge my Sherfield bet.

That’s 7U on MNF (1U from before), that’s enough for now.   BOL! 

2023 - Week 1 to TNF - +8.3U (37U stake)

Edited by Broncofan
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