Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

9 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Hold up - I didn’t take it yet.  I’m going to let the early slate guide me here lol 

@SmittyBacall - Given I’m invested 3U more with Bijan Robinson Rec yds props I’m going to pass on Rhamondre Stevenson.   Gotta have some semblance of fiscal responsibility with bankroll management.  

Edited September 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

I was also debating on taking Daniel Jones passing yards from 230 all the way up to 300 Seattle has allowed 3 straight 300+ passing game performances. 

My ONLY hesitation on this play is that this will be the team's first game with both Tariq Woolen & Devon Witherspoon playing at the same time. Both have been exceptional in their stints playing this year. Not to mention, Jamal Adams first game back. 

Very happy I hit Seahawks ML when they were +1.5. It's now -2 Seahawks on my book. 

[N4L]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Not sure if you’re a narrative type of guy, but Derrick Henry has essentially promised a big game this week. 

I was already wary of betting against the Titans at home. Just feels like a stay away game. If TEN shuts down Mixon, it’s gonna put a lot of pressure on an immobile Burrow. 

I dont care what players say during the week for the most part. That OL is terrible. The titans offense is really bad. Henry is an older player who isnt used to being shut down like he has been this year. So it makes sense he would talk and try and regain his former glory. I dont know why he thinks it is changing this week against a pretty tough defense. 

I will say that the titans at home as a dog is not someone I usually bet against, but the matchup is just fantastic for the bengals, even though it's a short week

[SaveOurSonics]

4 minutes ago, N4L said:

I dont care what players say during the week for the most part. That OL is terrible. The titans offense is really bad. Henry is an older player who isnt used to being shut down like he has been this year. So it makes sense he would talk and try and regain his former glory. I dont know why he thinks it is changing this week against a pretty tough defense. 

I will say that the titans at home as a dog is not someone I usually bet against, but the matchup is just fantastic for the bengals, even though it's a short week

We shall see 😉 The NFL is a game of variance. BroncoFan pointed out that the best players lines get played more, thus inflating them. Henry's line has gone down since books opened, so the public is hitting the Under. I will play into variance with one of the game's best RBs (even if he hasn't looked it). 

If Henry was saying this & they were on the road I wouldn't care. Something about being at home, making public comments like that, tells me the team is coming out playing smashmouth. 

It might not hit (obviously), but I like to play narrative time to time. 

[BobbyPhil1781]

Some good stuff here in this thread 

 

[stl4life07]

Here are plays Ill be interested in for Week 4:

Puka O6.5 catches and O71.5yds REC. Parlay this. The Colts play the most zone in the NFL and Puka is one of four receivers that have a high target share when it comes to the zone. So this spells for Puka to go off.

Kyren Williams ATTD. I do think McVay will get back to running the football in the redzone. After not doing so against the Bengals I think he will be determined to do so. Before the MNF Williams was the main reason the Rams had the best redzone offense in the NFL as he had 4 total tds. All coming in the redzone. And even with not having a td he shouldve had one on MNF had Stafford been more accurate he missed a wide open Williams on a pass in the redzone. Had they connected Williams walks into the endzone. So again I expect Williams to find the endzone. 

CMC ATTD. You can parlay this with the Niners ML. CMC has now 12 straight games with a td. I dont see why that will change especially with Deebo being banged up and Aiyuk being banged up. I might be more tempted for CMC to get two tds.

Pollard ATTD. I was all on him last week and he let me down not scoring but the Cowboys should be getting back some if not all of their starting OL that they was missing last week. I dont think they want to mess around with trying to get too cute against the Pats defense. Running the ball especially in the redzone is the way to go and I do think Pollard either on the ground or on a pass out of the backfield he finds his way into the endzone. 

Derrick Henry O68.5yds RUSH. Im still not convinced the Bengals run defense is good. The Rams didnt even try to run. the only path for the Titans in this game is for Henry to be King Henry. Unless this game is a blow out where the Titans are down big early they should be able to stay on script and run the ball just like they did in Week 1 in a close game against the Saints where Henry had 63yds rushing against a more stout Saints run defense in a tough Superdome environment. 

Steelers -3 against the Texans. The Texans have been playing shockingly well but they havent went up against Watt and this defense. I think people still thinking about the Steelers against the Niners and Browns in which they played two of the best defenses in the NFL. If not for those defenses and the Steelers looking meh if not flat out bad I think the Steelers would be favored by more. I could see this truly being Stroud "welcome to the NFL" game. 

Seahawks -2 against the Giants. Daniel Jones in primetime is like 1-12. Thats Cousins territory. Meanwhile Carroll is really good coaching in primetime games. He gets his teams up to play. I think the Seahawks win and cover.

Chiefs -9 against the Jets. The Chiefs dont really cover the spread but the Jets are a dumpster fire. The Chiefs defense is really good this season and so I can see them making Wilson life miserable. I can see alot of short fields for the Chiefs leading them to tds and the score getting out of hand early. Dont be shocked if the Jets literally quit on national tv if they do fall behind early by double digits and Wilson struggles. That could be the tipping point of the Jets basically saying they had enough of Wilson go trade for Cousins or even Tannehill but anyone who is OK will do over Wilson bc he is playing that bad.  

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by stl4life07

[Broncofan]

As a recap, the full Sunday card is here, on page 334:

 

Changes today:

-HOU ML removed given the catastrophic OL injuries for this week.

-Added Bijan Robinson O25.5 rec yds 2U DK, 50+ rec yds +320 1U DK

-Amari Cooper O58.5 rec yds main line 2U play has a 100+ +450 0.5U DK play as well, but with Deshaun Watson's status in limbo - all CLE pass / rec props are off the board, so there's no 80+ rec yd FD alt line.    Probably will leave it that way now.

-Added Juwan Johnson +425 TD / +7250 2+ (+4500 2+ DK prop with 0.2u max bet 50 percent boost) 0.8U / 0.2U with TAM's pass funnel D

-Jalin Hyatt TD +900 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2UJ added for MNF (but counts to MNF)

 

So that's 4U in ATS/ML plays this Sunday, a total of 28U with 9 player props, and a total of 6U for 9 longshot TD props, for a 38U Sunday card.  Another busy Sunday....BOL!

 

Edited September 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

4 hours ago, stl4life07 said:

Steelers -3 against the Texans. The Texans have been playing shockingly well but they havent went up against Watt and this defense. I think people still thinking about the Steelers against the Niners and Browns in which they played two of the best defenses in the NFL. If not for those defenses and the Steelers looking meh if not flat out bad I think the Steelers would be favored by more. I could see this truly being Shroud "welcome to the NFL" game. 

Have you watched the texans defense? I wrote about it a few pages back. Their defense is extremely underrated. They will match the steelers physicality on that side of the ball. DeMeco is one of the best defensive coaches in the NFL right now. 

Stroud will be the better QB on the field. Pickett is terrible. Canada is terrible. The steelers WRs outside of pickens are bad. They have no run game. Its baaaad on that side of the ball. 

The texans are extremely well coached. 

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

-HOU ML removed given the catastrophic OL injuries for this week.

Might I suggest the under to you, good sir. If you are worried that the HOU OL sinks the offense, then the under should be the move. The texans defense is being slept on, it is going to be very good. 

I did a 7pt teaser HOU +10 and the under. Love that one. 

[Broncofan]

4 hours ago, N4L said:

Might I suggest the under to you, good sir. If you are worried that the HOU OL sinks the offense, then the under should be the move. The texans defense is being slept on, it is going to be very good. 

I did a 7pt teaser HOU +10 and the under. Love that one. 

I don’t use teasers but your under suggestion is extremely sound.  

[JaguarCrazy2832]

14 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

My ONLY hesitation on this play is that this will be the team's first game with both Tariq Woolen & Devon Witherspoon playing at the same time. Both have been exceptional in their stints playing this year. Not to mention, Jamal Adams first game back. 

Very happy I hit Seahawks ML when they were +1.5. It's now -2 Seahawks on my book. 

Yea I did a headfake when i saw Seattle was a dog

[Rainmaker90]

So far I’m on 

 

usc 20.5

ND 5.5

 

Mia +3

Minny 4.5

 

Chase 100 yards 

[Broncofan]

 

-  Harrison Bryant +1200 / +15000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK won’t be up for long

Edited September 30, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

32 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

-  Harrison Bryant +1200 / +15000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK won’t be up for long

And it’s down.   Now +300 to +350.  Not playable at that number.  

[thebestever6]

40 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

-  Harrison Bryant +1200 / +15000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK won’t be up for long

damn got the touchdown play in but my 2 td wasn't submitted I guess I typed everything out guess I didn't hit submit its gonna hit now .