Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

Jakobi Meyers over 4.5 receptions, up to 8.5 receptions on the alt line -

You're the man this is saving my night. 

[SaveOurSonics]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Everything tells me Packers win this game….

 

…..but I can’t bring myself to take their ML, +2.5, or even Tease them again at +9.5. Already on Pack +9.5 to finish a Teaser & decided not to over-leverage myself on a play I’m not super confident in. 

I ended up playing the following Player Props:

Josh Jacobs O74.5 - Green Bay’s front is not imposing. LV knows they’ll need to get the ball to DAdams, they know GB will know that, so the best way to force attention off Adams is via play action. Expect them to start heavy Jacobs to see how effective it is early. 

Jordan Love O241.5 - No AJones, I expect GB to air it out this game against a weak secondary. 

Christian Watson O47.5 - Stick with that theme with the teams to deep threat. 

Jayden Reed O35.5 - Thread play of the day it would seem. 

And boy am I happy I listened to that gut instinct. I could afford to do the more often. 

Not a great MNF slate for me. That said, we only win or learn. Jotting down some Week 5 Lessons Learned to remind myself…

• Just don’t bet anything less than props you love. I was probably 90% on props I loved and what felt like 0% on plays I didn’t. Just wager more on the plays I love if I so choose. 

• If you don’t have a good read on a game, admit that to yourself, & avoid it. I knew I didn’t have a good read on tonight’s game. I showed restraint, but not enough. Watson was the only play I loved, & it was the only play that hit. Go figure. 
 

That’s a 2-3 MNF slate for +0u (counting the Teaser with Pack +9.5 that finished). That’s 1-3 & -2.0u if only counting tonight’s plays. I have yet to count the total for the weekend. 
 

Anyways, we look forward to Week 6. These are the plays I’ve already made…

49ers -2.5 (2u) 

49ers -4.5 (1u) 

Eagles -6.5 (1u) 

I’ll continue to hammer the two best teams in football for as long as Vegas underestimates them. The Eagles have the ability to contain Breece & Zach won’t be able to keep up. The loss of AVT is big. 

[Broncofan]

15 hours ago, Broncofan said:

WEEK 5 MNF 

ATS / ML 

GB +120 FD (now +115) - the way this loses is if the GB OL lets Maxx Crosby wreak havoc on Jordan Love and Josh Jacobs controls the run game.   But I do believe Matt Lafleur can game plan around one guy on D.    And then the GB OL getting 3 hits back on OL that missed or left the LV game will allow Love to exploit the LV secondary.   I also believe this game will be a Pack home game away from home (we see same in LAC).   
 

PLAYER PROPS 

Josh Jacobs o72.5 rush yds 2U;  100+ rush yds +260 1U DK -  covered before; with a concussed JimmyG and a gimpy Davante Adams I’d expect Josh McD to dial up 20+ carries for Jacobs tonight.  Have to take the alt line with that.  
 

Christian Watson o41.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 70 yds +320 1U DK - if he’s healthy this number is just too low.  2nd week back after being on IR I’m ok to take the shot.  
 

Romeo Doubs o45.5 rec yds 2U, 70+ Rec yds +260 1U DK - same as Watson. 

Jayden Reed o33.5 Rec yds 2U & 50+ Rec yds +200 1U FD - LV slot CB Nate Hobbs is out - this makes him the best matchup of the bunch.  Thx to @adamq for raising this   
 

Why am I attacking all 3 GB WR pass props?  Because imo they are all 15-20 yds too low - but the context last week was that GB lost 2 starters from the OL and best backup in-game (Jenkins, Tom & Runyan).   But they’re all back (Bakhtari has been out all season).   They protect against Maxx Crosby it’s a major mismatch for the WR’s.   Helping Crosby is why I wouldn’t take Luke Musgrave tonight btw.  That’s 12U in player props   

 

TD PROPS 

I don’t see any great  longshot odds so I’m going to contract things a bit and take value in GB’s big 3 WR who IMO are all at value vs a bottom 5 LV secondary.    

Christian Watson +250 / +2000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U - DK has him at +180 and I think +150 is about right.   

Romeo Doubs +280 / +2500 2+ FD - DK has him at +210 and i think +150-+180 is right.  
 

Jayden Reed +380 / +4000 0.8U / 0.2U FD - with news Hobbs is out I have to take thisA

NEW MON PM - Emmanuel Wilson +1000 (+1400 on B365) / +17000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - well with news Aaron Jones is very doubtful to go tonight, then have to take this.  I doubt it stays at this number for very long.

Unlike super longshots I don’t see FD odds rising so taking it now esp with the discrepancy with other books.   I’m basically looking for 2+ TD’s from the big 3 GB WR corps tonight.    If I get 3+ we’re doing great.  

That’s 4U in TD props tonight and 17U in total which is definitely enough.  It’s risky but I see such an edge in GB pass & LV rush props I have to take it.  
 

Let’s finish a great Week 5 on a high note! 

Well, that sucked - Jordan Love really did flatline, and Maxx Crosby was a terror.  Some bad fortune with Josh Jacobs having 4 rush yds taken away as a rushing loss on the flea flicker and Christian Watson TD prevented by a horsecollar - but it was really just getting the gamescript completely wrong on the GB end.   That's the flip side to getting it right - when you get it wrong, it can be rough.

The Watson props hit for 5.2U, but everything else loses, so it's literally a -10.8U night.    Still a great week, but the lesson's learned (again) lol.   On to Week 6 TNF, looking to get back on track then (and still a very good week, just too bad it ended that badly).

ATS/ML: 8-12-1, -3.7U (WK 5 SNF: 2-3, -0.7U)

PLAYER PROPS: 36-38, +23.2U (WK 5 SNF: 10-4, +30.7U including Breece Hall top Wk5 Sunday rusher 20-1 0.4U)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-63, +7.1U (WK5 0-13, -11.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +26.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; 291U stake so far)

Edited October 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[BobbyPhil1781]

What a trashy game to end off an excellent week.

+7u from Thursday

+26u from Sunday

-4u from tonight

I'll take this every day of the week especially bc I was 2-3 more Montgomery rushes from an extra 50u.... Still salty about that. It was a good a good read, Carolina just couldn't make the game halfway competitive.

Hoping for even half of this next week. 

[Broncofan]

DK already has some player props out, and there are 3 that stand out (1 more to go), and 4 TD plays I see at value:

WEEK 6 TNF:

ATS/ML

DEN +10.5 - outside of the MIA game, DEN's kept it to 1-score (well, until the very end with NYJ) - to be clear, I expect a KC win, but I think it's of the 6-7 pt variety.   I do not expect any upset, but being over the 10-pt mark is critical here.   KC with Kelce not even close to 100 percent, and Mahomes getting his ankle dinged again, I expect a 27-20 type game.   So give me the points.   If the line goes up, I'll be sad, but at 10.5, I definitely don't want it to get to 10 or lower.  

 

PLAYER PROPS

Jerry Jeudy O54.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +240 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - I suspect this line is going to go up quickly, as WR's are still getting their yards vs. the KC pass D.   MIN got 180+ even with Justin Jefferson going down, Ridley got 100+, both Garrett Wilson & Allen Lazard got 60+ - and while Russell Wilson is a limited QB skill-wise, he still looks for the open guy - Jeudy was able to get 50+ even with the Jets blanket coverage, so I'm definitely on the alt line props here.   

Jerick McKinnon O12.5 rec yds, 25+ rec yds +250 1U, 50+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - the main line is so easy to justify because our RB pass coverage is abysmal.  And Mckinnon has absolutely torched us in the past with 50+ and 100+ yards last year.     NGL, I'm kinda tempted to double up on Isaiah Pacheco's 11.5 rec yd line as well, but I know if it's the 2-minute drill, or it's 3rd down, McKinnon is going to get his snaps there, and he's going to be the hardest mismatch (as Simmons likely takes on Kelce), we have no one that matches up with RB right now. 

Marvin Mims O16.5 rec yds, 40+ yds +340 1U, 60+ rec yds +1000U 0.5U - I've learned to stay off Rasheed Shaheed for yards because they won't use him (3-2 for the year, but oh so sweaty each time), same with Jahad Dotson - but Mims offers Shaheed like explosiveness - you only need to give him 1 opportunity and he could bust all the lines.  I'm hoping they increase his snap share and target count this week vs. KC's D, he's the only separator out there besides Jeudy.  I could absolutely take a goose egg here, but against KC's secondary, he's the guy they should use more - and the odds simply justify the play here....just comes with a lot of antacid early on if they keep limiting him to 4th WR snap #'s. 

NEW THU PM - Russell Wilson O19.5 rush yds 2U - credit to @N4L here I was considering it to correlate with the TD play, but had held off - but his argument persuaded me here. 

Interestingly, the only DEN RB props are Javonte Wililams - but I wouldn't be so sure that he's going to play.  I am definitely interested in any Jaleel Mclaughlin props, as I expect they will be even lower.   Probably will need to wait until Javonte's status is very clear.     

Isaiah Pacheco rush props got juiced up to O73.5 rush yds - while it seems like a slam dunk, with the short week, I'm going to hold off - as DEN's D plays KC O a lot tougher the last 2 years (of course, Vance Joseph is now the DC, so that's a lot different than in prior years).    It's just that the DEN run D performance has been so bad, the books are cranking up the lines - so that's a good time to sit back and wait.   Breece Hall was a smash spot at O60.5 and the 80/100/120+ lines (plus NFL top Sun RB rusher) - but the line being 60.5 made it much easier to take plus alt lines, was that Hall is *that* special of a player.   I like Pacheco, but he's nowhere near Hall's level - and being a short week, never can tell about how much split usage we'll see.   Also, part of what gave Hall such a great day - DJ Jones left in the 1Q.   He hasn't been great this year, but the run D is very soft without him.  I'd like to see his status before jumping in on rush props that start in the 70's with a guy who shares more work than Hall does now (the Jets announcement that there was no snap count was very kind lol). 

I also note that both Kelce and Mahomes got dinged up - so I have a very hard time taking either guy's props.  
 

LONGSHOT TD

None are out, but I'm definitely interested in Noah Gray at +600 or better, Jerick McKinnon / Jaleel Mclaughlin if I can find a +300 line (unlikely), and of course, Justyn Ross if he's +750 or better (he's starting to get real snaps and iso targets - 4 last week, even in limited snaps).  

EDIT:  Jaleel is +200, McKinnon is +250, and Gray is +230.  BOOO they figured those out.   But there are still 2 worth taking:

Brandon Johnson +600 / +112500 (50 percent boost) 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - as long as it's +600 or better, I have to take it, at least until he stops being out there in 3-WR RZ formations.

Russell Wilson +750 / +9000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - esp in trail situations, the threat of Russell running it in (with our separation problems with WR's outside of Mims & Jeudy, and we don't use Mims in RZ), those odds are just too good.   Worth a half-stake play.

Justyn Ross +1100 / +13000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - last week , Ross only ran 6 routes, but he was targeted 4x, and open for all 4.   He dropped 2 of them (boo!), but it was another week where Skyy Moore and MVS didn't separate.   As long as he doesn't draw PS2 when they're close to the EZ, I think we'll see the iso play targeted.   At that price, worth taking. 

Jerick McKinnon +350 FD / +3600 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U - I've covered it in the rec yds prop, but McKinnon is the top mismatch for KC this week, and they know it.   Have to take the full unit play here.   I'd definitely take the FD +350 right now, I don't think you'll do better - but it may be worth waiting on Bodog, even if they're "just" +300 for 1-TD, their 2-TD props are often better once you get past +300.   It depends on what their line will be, but worth waiting on IMO.

NEW THU PM Greg Dulcich +600 / +7000 2+ & Marvin Mims +650 / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD each - man, FD just had to suck me in.   On DK they are around +400, which is about right - but FD's line crosses the threshold at 50 percent over implied odds.  NGL, I regret my Brandon Johnson play now lol. 

So that's 1U on DEN +10.5, 12.5U on 4 plays (with Jaleel M not an option with Javonte playing), and 4.5U in 5 TD plays, for 18U total.  I've been offered a free 0.4U bet, so I'm going YOLO with DEN +11 / McKinnon O13.5 rec yds / Jeudy O53.5 rec yds / Mims O17.5 rec yds / Russell Wilson O19.5 rush yds / Mckinnon ATD for +5000 DK since it's a free play.   Enough for now.   BOL!

Edited October 12, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so Week 6 slate is taking shape, some early UK plays, then adding the rest as they come in:


WEEK 6 SUNDAY SLATE

ATS/ML

EARLY

DET -3 @ TAM - I know ppl are worried about DET missing so many RB's and now Sam Laporta is on the injury report.    But Mike Evans has a hammy tweak, and without him, the TAM O is much easier to defend.  Give me the havoc Aidan Hutchinson can bring and the DET OL edge, I'll take it as long as it stays under 3. 

SF -10 @ CLE - I get it's a lot of points.   And the CLE D is legit.   But PJ Walker is so bad.   And that same CLE D can get worn down if they're asked to be on the field 35+ mins. 

HOU +110 vs. NO - wrong team is favored here.    I have a lot of love for the players on NO, but as long as Pete Carmichael runs that O, it's always going to underachieve.    HOU's run D is legit, as long as the NO O is stunted, I have to take the +money play here. 

LATE

NE +130 @ LV - 2 awful, awful teams.   And yes, I know Belichick assistants do well against their mentor.   But the matchups except with Mac Jones lean to NE this week.  I do think Jakobi Meyers does well, but I favor the NE run game - just maybe no laterals this week from Jakobi Meyers (wrong team), and this one likely goes NE's way.    I don't feel like this is a lock, but the line's so wide on what should be a pick 'em.  

SNF/MNF

LAC +120 vs. DAL - same deal here.   I know Brandon Staley sucks, but Mike McCarthy is equally as bad.   If you give me a battle vs. bad coaches, and it has to be QB vs D, well I'll o with the better QB.   Micah Parsons could absolutely make me regret this, but that's where LAC's much-improved pass pro OL comes in. 

That's 5U in ATS/ML plays.


PLAYER PROPS

UK GAME

DeAndre Hopkins O54.5 rec yds FD 2U (58.5 on DK), 80+ yds +220 1U, 100+ rec yds +520 0.5U FD - Nuk is still the target hog, and while Marlon Humphrey's back, he is coming off foot surgery, and he was beat by George Pickens.   When healthy, Nuk's still got the moves and hands.   It's not as much of a smash spot matchup wise, but the gamescript has the BAL run D really forcing more passes for TEN, so that helps in taking this prop. EDIT:  FD comes in 4 yards lower, so def go there for main line and 80+ / 10 alt lines once they're out, unless the main line # skyrockets before alt lines become available.

Zay Flowers O51.5 rec yds 2U (54.5 on DK),  80+ rec yds +280 1U, 100+ rec yds +550 0.5U FD - Flowers had 2 brutal drops, but he remains the BAL top target - and now his downfield usage is increasing.   Against TEN's pass funnel D, this is a smash spot.    Volume, matchup and increasing air yardage?  Sign me up.  EDIT:  FD again a lot lower, so go there for main line & alt lines unless the main line # gets close to DK's.

 

EARLY 

TJ Hockenson O51.5 rec yds (now 54.5 already <wow) 2U, 80+ rec yds +260 1U , 100+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK -  Fantasy managers are trying to figure out which is the better play, KJ Osborn or Jordan Addison, since Osborn is apparently taking the JJ position (but Addison the much better player).   Against the Bears, though, Hockenson is the leverage spot to attack.   I know that ppl may point out that Hock has only put up 100+ yds in MIN 1x - but Justin Jefferson was there every game.    Honestly, it the rec prop offered alt lines at DK/FD, I'd go there too.

DJ Moore O59.5 rec yds 2U  DK - not going to get too greedy as it's rare for players to explode 2x a week and the CHI weather, but 60+ seems like a decent 2U play.

LATE

Dallas Goedert O37.5 rec yds 2U (now 39.5), 60+ rec yds +260 1U, 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK - what??? this is the NYJ pass D, who will likely get DJ Reed back (2 practices in a row, last step to getting cleared from concussion) to pair with Sauce Gardner.  This is a classic TE funnel pass D.   I am shocked the number isn't in the mid-40's.  

NEW THU PM - Rhamondre Stevenson O44.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +300 1U, 100+ rush yds +700 0.5U DK (Game closed now?) - weird that the line closed altogether, but I got this just before.    The Raiders run D is susceptible, and I imagine BB will want to focus on running the ball here.   Rhamondre has had tough matchups, this is the first that's a plus, so the low 40's really helps make the main line and 1st line a no-brainer; the +700 is too good to pass up (as a contrast, it's +600 on FD at main line 45.5).  I'm sure B365 is better, but still great value

NEW FRI AM Jakobi Meyers O5.5 catches +110 FD 2U -  I'm sad I don't have B365, because I'd definitely play the 7+/8+ catch alt line here.   NE always looks to take away the top target, and that's still Davante Adams.   So an easy 2U play here. 

Some props that aren't out yet that I definitely am interested in - Josh Dobbs rush yds if they are in the mid-20's.   That's 21.5U so far in 7 plays, so we'll see how many more I add (Dobbs depending on the target numbers for 2U more and then 23.5U for 8 players).   Getting the usual 0.4U free play offer from DK, so going with 6-leg Hopkins O56.5 / Flowers O56.5 / Hockenson O54.5 / Goedert O39.5 / Rhamondre O45.5 / Meyers O5.5 rec props for +4500) pending. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

UK GAME

Kyle Phillips +1300 FD  / +15000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - he's the 2022 rookie slot WR who was hurt a lot, and missed the first 4 games - just got back last week.   With Treylon Burks still trending to be out this week, Phillips is likely their 2nd/3rd best WR talent-wise (depending on what you think of Westbrook-Ikhine), the Q is opportunity / snaps - but given his role last year when he was healthy was fairly substantial, and the state of the TEN WR corps right now (Chris Moore is AWFUL), this is too good of a play to pass up.     EDIT THU PM:   With news that Treylon Burks is offfically out, time to get Phillips TD props is now.

EARLY

NEW THU PM - Dynami Brown +1100 DK / +15000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U DK - I know that ATL has a great pass D - but it's also because they have a shutdown corner in AJ Terrell, and great safety play from former Bengal Jessie Bates.   But they still give up TD's to secondary WR's and for WAS, that's again Dynami Brown.   Surprised DK didn't adjust with 2 near-TD's for him, but fingers crossed the bounces go our way this week. 

NEW FRI AM - Colby Parkinson +800 / +1400 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - as long as they keep giving me these lines, against vulnerable TE D's, I have to go here.  Parkinson is still taking a full timeshare with Noah Fant, but he's getting 3-4x better odds.    CIN's TE D is a sore spot with Jesse Bates' departure, so let's hope for TD opp fortune to swing our way.

NEW  FRI AM - Jared Goff +800 / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - with only 1 healthy RB (David Montgomery) ahead of Craig Reynolds, the chances of a trick RPO (used 2 weeks ago) or a QB sneak with a DPI at 1 yard line (TAM secondary does take a fair number of penalties), worth the 0.5U play.  

NEW FRI AM - Drew Ogletree +1000 FD / +8000 2+ DK (Bodog pending, so wait) 0.8U / 0.2U - It's gone under the radar, but there appears to be a changing of the guard in IND.  Drew Ogletree took 65+ percent of the snaps last week, and he was getting snaps before being concussed early in the season.    With JAX's TE D being quite generous, and their D vs. WR1-2 & RB's being much stingier, this is a play worth exploiting.   DK has Ogletree at +700 / +8000, but if Bodog has +700 type odds, their 2-TD should be better than +8000 2+, so I'll wait to see what the 2-TD play is, but FD I'll play now, especially as Mo-Alie Cox still hasn't cleared concussion protocol.

LATE

Nothing yet

 

So that's 4.5U in TD props and likely 23.5U in player props (with Josh Dobbs rush props @ 2U) and 5U in ATS/ML plays, so we're up to 33U, along with the 0.4U +4500 6-leg player prop free play.  Looking for Sunday to turn things around after a rough MNF/TNF.  BOL!

 

 

ATS/ML: 8-13-1, -4.7U (WK 6 TNF: 0-1, -1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 38-40, +18.7U (WK 6 TNF: 2-2, -4.5U - McKinnon called back play UGH -9.5U swing)

LONGSHOT TD: 9-68, +2.6U (WK5 0-13, -11.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4:  N-Gray +700)

TOTAL - +16.6U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 TNF - -10.0U; 309U stake so far)

Edited October 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[adamq]

I knew we were in trouble right away when Peyton said he talked to Lefleur, and the game plan was to pound the rock/make it a physical game/establish the run coach speak. And after finally watching a full game of Jordan Love, I can see why that was his plan.  Don't have confidence in packers props unless it's Aaron Jones or a game where they should be playing catchup all day long

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, adamq said:

I knew we were in trouble right away when Peyton said he talked to Lefleur, and the game plan was to pound the rock/make it a physical game/establish the run coach speak. And after finally watching a full game of Jordan Love, I can see why that was his plan.  Don't have confidence in packers props unless it's Aaron Jones or a game where they should be playing catchup all day long

Get the gamescript right it’s all good.   Get it wrong and it’s a tough day.  
 

Love led the league in ADOT up until last night - going with an AJ Dillon-based  gameplan was bad, but Love was awful in his own right.    Learn from it and move on.   

[N4L]

16 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Get the gamescript right it’s all good.   Get it wrong and it’s a tough day.  
 

Love led the league in ADOT up until last night - going with an AJ Dillon-based  gameplan was bad, but Love was awful in his own right.    Learn from it and move on.   

MLF lost confidence in Love after that first INT, which was pretty terrible. They couldnt really get into any rhythm after that.  

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, N4L said:

MLF lost confidence in Love after that first INT, which was pretty terrible. They couldnt really get into any rhythm after that.  

Absolutely - just when that happened, it was a bad night for GB receiving props.  Still sucked that Watson got horsecollared for that TD, but that's small potatoes to the larger point.  

[Broncofan]

Well that's interesting - ALL the DEN - KC DK props just went off the board.  Wonder what's up.

[JaguarCrazy2832]

I want no part of KC-10.5 with Kelce not being 100% and the weather being iffy. With that said idk if i have the balls to bet Denver either lol Heck i bet the Jets ML last week

[Broncofan]

47 minutes ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said:

I want no part of KC-10.5 with Kelce not being 100% and the weather being iffy. With that said idk if i have the balls to bet Denver either lol Heck i bet the Jets ML last week

I took Jets ML as my first play last week.  And I took DEN +10.5 this week.   

Sometimes it's about the situation / matchups more than the team. I'm probably never betting Breece Hall to be top Sun rusher this year again.   But that was the perfect storm.

 

EDIT:  FWIW, there's no rain in forecast.   Winds being 15 MPH is pretty normal for KC this time of year.   What weather issue are you seeing?   

Edited October 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Well that's interesting - ALL the DEN - KC DK props just went off the board.  Wonder what's up.

Looks like they're back up - nothing unusual, KC weather is good, so finishing up my TNF card with 1 player prop, waiting on 1 more, and 4 TD plays I really love:

TNF PLAYER PROPS (Cont'd)

Marvin Mims O16.5 rec yds, 40+ yds +340 1U, 60+ rec yds +1000U 0.5U - I've learned to stay off Rasheed Shaheed for yards because they won't use him (3-2 for the year, but oh so sweaty each time), same with Jahad Dotson - but Mims offers Shaheed like explosiveness - you only need to give him 1 opportunity and he could bust all the lines.  I'm hoping they increase his snap share and target count this week vs. KC's D, he's the only separator out there besides Jeudy.  I could absolutely take a goose egg here, but against KC's secondary, he's the guy they should use more - and the odds simply justify the play here....just comes with a lot of antacid early on if they keep limiting him to 4th WR snap #'s

 

 

TNF LONGSHOT TD'S 

Brandon Johnson +600 / +112500 (50 percent boost) 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - as long as it's +600 or better, I have to take it, at least until he stops being out there in 3-WR RZ formations.

Russell Wilson +750 / +9000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - esp in trail situations, the threat of Russell running it in (with our separation problems with WR's outside of Mims & Jeudy, and we don't use Mims in RZ), those odds are just too good.   Worth a half-stake play.

Justyn Ross +1100 / +13000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - last week , Ross only ran 6 routes, but he was targeted 4x, and open for all 4.   He dropped 2 of them (boo!), but it was another week where Skyy Moore and MVS didn't separate.   As long as he doesn't draw PS2 when they're close to the EZ, I think we'll see the iso play targeted.   At that price, worth taking. 

Jerick McKinnon +350 FD / +3600 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U (WAIT on 2-TD) - I've covered it in the rec yds prop, but McKinnon is the top mismatch for KC this week, and they know it.   Have to take the full unit play here.   I'd definitely take the FD +350 right now, I don't think you'll do better - but it may be worth waiting on Bodog, even if they're "just" +300 for 1-TD, their 2-TD props are often better once you get past +300.   It depends on what their line will be, but worth waiting on IMO.

I'm definitely interested in Jaleel Mclaughlin props if Javonte sits again (because his totals are so low as he's seen as the backup), but otherwise that's probably enough for now lol.  But for now, that's 1U on DEN +10.5, 10.5U on 3 plays (with Jaleel M waiting), and 3.5U in 4 TD plays, for 15U total.  I've been offered a free 0.4U bet, so I'll likely combine some of those player props (but I want to see if I can include Jaleel M for now).   Enough for now.   BOL!

 

Edited October 10, 2023 by Broncofan

[stl4life07]

Right now these are some of the things Im thinking about for Week 6:

Bengals -2.5 against the Seahawks They are at home. Burrow did look better and he said he is feeling the best he has felt since the injury. I think the books havent caught up to Burrow might be looking better but if the Bengals win this game the books will definitely adjust. I would even place some money on the Bengals to win the AFCN now. But in this game you got the Bengals at home, you got the better QB in Burrow, you have a defense is the Bengals who is more than capable to have Geno looking like he did Week 1 against the Rams. So if the books is giving me less than a FG for a team that pre-Burrow injury is better by alot and Burrow started to look like he is at least getting better then Ill take it.

Rams ML against the Cards If not for anything but McVay owns the Cards Ill take it. I dont specifically know the spread but you can even take the ALT spread of the Rams winning by a 7pts if not 10pts. McVay against the Cards have won most of the games by double digit points. The reason why Im saying the ML is just to keep it safe especially if Im going to possibly parlay this game with the Bengals -2.5. But I might do a straight bet and do an ALT line for the Rams bc I believe strongly in this bet. The Cards lost Conner so their run game will lack. They are playing well but we have to feel like they are do for a bad game bc its not like they are a good football team. The Rams have been competitive in all their games. Kupp is back looking great, Puka is still looking great, Stafford looks great, and the defense has been good.

CMC ATTD Just lock this one up. You can even parlay it up with the Niners ML against the Browns. Unless you feel like the Browns have a legit shot against the Niners. And they might just due to coming off a BYE and at home. So I would probably just pick the Niners ML and not the spread bc Im assuming their spread will be big. But Niners ML + CMC ATTD is what Im thinking.

Kyren Williams ATTD with a sprinkle of him getting 2 ATTD Kyren has scored a td in every game except for the Bengals and Eagles game when the Rams didnt run the ball much. He ran the ball better than you would think against the Eagles averaging 4.1ypc its just the Rams didnt have the ball much. They possessed the ball for 22 minutes and when they had the ball Stafford threw it 35 times. Against the Cards I know McVay is going to get back to running the ball more and when he does Kyren will get a TD or two. 

Bills to cover whatever the spread is They are playing the Giants at home and coming off a loss where Allen didnt play well despite the boxscore of him coming in late with some big plays. I expect the Bills to dominate the Giants who might not have Jones and Barkley. I can see the Bills scoring 35+ and winning by 2-3 TDs. So you can even have the Bills team total 30+ and again whatever the spread is dont be shy of putting money on it.

Josh Allen to throw for 250yds 3 TDs and maybe even a rushing TD Again I think Allen is going to explode in this game. Ride the Allen rollercoaster. Last week wasnt a good game for him despite how the boxscore looked in the end. He is going to go off this week against the Giants.