adamq Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 (edited) Swift td +195 Weird, fd and dk aren't offering a market for 1st TD scorer. Not something I usually dabble in but I like looking at the odds Edited January 16 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 friermuth won me a crap ton today yesss! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
11sanchez11 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 (edited) Let's go! Trey Palmer TD +475 and SGP of Baker 2 pass TDs, Julio o 17.5 rec yards and Otton o 24.5 rec yards + 500 hit on that play! Edited January 16 by 11sanchez11 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Man, I'm so frustrated after this weekend. TD's were amazing, and basically saved my weekend. Player props were ABSOLUTELY SNAKEBITTEN, as Lady Luck literally decided to kick my *** and literally sweep me with only bad beats. SIGH. WEEK 19 WC WEEKEND MON RECAP ATS/ML - 1-0, +1.3U - easy call. PLAYER PROPS - 2-5, -10.8U - Jaylen Warren literally goes 1-16 on the first set of downs...and then gets ZERO yards rest of way. Khalil Shakir falls 2 yards short. Baker Mayfield misses only 2 big-gain throws (a bunch of drops) all game long - and they both happen to be Chris Godwin down the seam for 40+ and Rachaad White for 25-30+ minimum. Quez Watkins gets 3-12 after 20 mins and then gets ZERO targets while Jalen Hurts literally locks in on Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith and no one else for the next 40 mins...literally a 20U swing with 5x -4U main line outcomes. NGL, I'm pretty tilted by Watkins right now. TD PROPS - 2-4, +18.4U - I guess I should recognize the one big break - moving the PIT-BUF game had insane TD value remain, and Diontae Johnson & Calvin Austin III literally came in and saved the weekend. All in all, I shouldn't complain with a +8.9U day and +10.3U WK19. It's just that the player props sucked all weekend long, and literally got 0 breaks there. TD's are not a byproduct of luck, so we only needed 2-3 breaks to have a massive day. Still, we generate some profit, so we'll look to see if we can get more player prop luck going next week. WEEK 19 SUN ATS/ML: 47-41-1, +8.8U (WK 19 - 2-1, +1.3U) PLAYER PROPS: 162-157, +111.5U (WK 19 SUN - 7-12, -14.3U ) LONGSHOT TD: 46-284, +63.3U (WK 19 SUN - 4-10, +23.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100; WK18 K-Miller +400; WK19 - B-Jordan +800 & T-Atwell +1000 & D-Johnson +500 & C-Austin +2000) TOTAL - +183.5U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 -9.4U; WK19 - +10.3U; 1503U stake so far) 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 HOU +9.5 seems absurdly high, no? Have to back that. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Reed Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: HOU +9.5 seems absurdly high, no? Have to back that. Same exact line it was in week 1 when they played which is pretty wild lol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I'm kinda loving bucs money line but I'm weary Lions should of lost to the rams that no call last drive on the pi was bs. So Bucs may have to beat the refs and the Lions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 (edited) OK well the books came out early with next week's props AND TD plays, so let's dive in... WEEK 19 DIVISIONAL WEEKEND SLATE ATS/ML SAT HOU +9.5 @ BAL - don't get me wrong, I think BAL is the deserved #1 AFC seed. I just have a hard time giving up this many points to HOU right now. GB + 9.5 @ SF - same deal with GB. Again, I think BAL & SF should win, I just don't have nearly as much faith it's a blowout as it used to be in past years, as the GB O is so balanced I think they can stick around and keep it close vs. SF. SUN BUF -2.5 vs. KC - as long as you keep it 3 or less, I'll back the Bills. Getting Daquon Jones back makes such a huge diff, and their ability to get pressure on Mahomes, and to run the ball and provide balance, makes the diff with home field advantage. So that's 3U in ATS/ML plays. PLAYER PROPS SAT Zay Flowers O48.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 50.5), O4.5 receptions +110 TheScore (+100 FD - B365 & US FD players consider 6-7 catch ladder) 2U, 68+ rec yds +210 1U, 88+ rec yds +500 0.5U - the rare 5.5U play, but I'm seeing Flowers being used as the short run game proxy just like vs. SF 3 weeks ago. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Isaiah Likely O34.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 36.5), 50+ rec yds +200 1U DK & 68+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK vs. HOU - pretty simple given how much HOU TE D struggles. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brevin Jordan O13.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +200 1U, 50+ rec yds +1000 0.5U DK @ BAL - just too low a number for the Texans 3rd best matchup. NEW ADDED FRI AM John Metchie O21.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 25.5), 38+ rec yds +210 1U, 53+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ BAL - way too low for the WR2-3. George Kittle O52.5 rec yds 2U DK, 72+ rec yds +210 1U, 93+ rec yds +500 0.5U vs. GB - GB's D has been great, but they're still really vulnerable to TE - and that matches up great with Kittle. For GB-SF, I want to see the GB injury report and active/inactive list before committing to their props. CMC's rush prop is at 88.5, given the calf tweak he had before, I am going to pass for now. SUN Jahmyr Gibbs O43.5 rush yds 2U DK, 57+ rush yds +200 1U, 73+ rush yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK vs. TAM - I know Gibbs missed the main line last week, and TAM pass D is still really vulnerable. I'm just willing to go back to the well and back the team with the far better OL & run game. If DET wins by 7+ points, I see Gibbs & Monty closing this out, but Gibb's home run and big play ability makes this worth attacking with the rare playoff 3-alt line play. Mike Evans O64.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 68.5), 85+ rec yds +210 1U, 120+ rec yds +600 0.5U @ DET - DET is so vulnerable to boundary WR's, and Evans will find this much easier than facing Darius Slay this week. Cade Otton O27.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 29.5), 50+ rec yds +300 1U, 63+ rec yds +500 0.5U @ DET - DET's bottom 10 TE D and pass funnel D sets up for another big game for Otton. Patrick Mahomes O24.5 rush yds 2U FD (DK - 27.5), 40+ rush yds +260 FD 1U, 60+ rush yds +750 0.5U FD @ BUF - while I think BUF wins, I know Mahomes will do everything he can. That means taking any run prop that's sub-30 yards and alt lines up to 60+. James Cook O16.5 rec yds 2U DK, 29+ rec yds +220 1U, 42+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. KC - I'm tempted to spam the rush prop, but Cook's such a mismatch problem for KC's D, and without Gabe Davis, I have to believe the Bills will look to use him here as well. NEW ADDED SUN PM Isaiah Pacheco O60.5 rush yds 2U, 83+ rush yds +210 1U DK @ BUF - no Bernard really affects their run D and TE coverage. NEW ADDED SUN PM Travis Kelce O62.5 rec yds 2U, 83+ rec yds +210 1U DK @ BUF - see above NEW ADDED SUN PM Dalton Kincaid O39.5 rec yds 2U, 55+ rec yds +210 1U DK vs. KC - KC secondary excellent, so I expect Kincaid will be the short area guy with Cook I'd like to see the DET injury reports (if Khalif Raymond plays) before deciding on any last minute DET rec props. So far that's 34U with 9 plays, that's pretty tight for now. LONGSHOT TD SAT Brevin Jordan +1000 FD (+800 DK / +900 Bodog) / +10000 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ BAL - Kinda surprised the books still have it this high, I get it, BAL D is that much better, but Jordan sees enough work to merit this half-stake play. NEW ADDED WED PM - John Metchie III +600 Bodog / +10000 2+ FD (now +8000) 0.4U / 0.1U & Xavier Huchinson +1200 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ BAL - with news that Noah Brown is on IR, it basically solidifies Metchie as the WR2-3 with Robert Woods, and Hutchinson as the other deep threat / WR4, so worth a play at their #'s. Charlie Kolar +1200 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. HOU - you know the deal, HOU is vulnerable to the TE, and Kolar sees enough work to justify a half-stake play at these odds. Jordan Love +1200 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.8U / 0.2U @ SF - nothing new here, as long as Aaron Jones is the main RB and with SF pass rush, Love's always a threat to score. Worth the full-stake play. SUN David Moore +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ DET - I wasn't even going to take any TD props for TAM-DET as they're all pretty juiced, but then Bodog left Moore this high. As much as I hate chasing last week's TD, for the WR3 who gets a lot of RZ snaps, can't pass this up. Justin Watson +600 Bodog (+550 FD, +500 DK) / +10000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U & Marquez Valdes-Scantling +900 Bodog (+800 DK) / +10000 2+ FD 0.8U / 0.2U @ BUF - I am truly shocked these lines are posted for MVS, who I get sucks IRL - but the TD opps are about opportunity. Watson's too high as well, much like we saw with PIT last week, BUF's secondary is a LOT more vulnerable with the injuries. While I have BUF winning, I can see 2-3 TD's for KC, so gotta take full-stake shots here. Noah Gray +900 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ BUF - if I'm going to take MVS / Watson, I have to take a half-stake play with Gray at these odds. Here's hoping to a similar outcome to PIT-BUF lol. Deonte Hardy +1500 FD (+1400 DK) / +16000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. KC & ~~Leonard Fournette +900 / +14000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD~~ vs. KC - on the flip side, with the run game and 3rd-4th WR's having the best matchups, I'll go with Hardy & Playoff Lenny to make sure I have a small piece of the BUF pie, albeit at half-stakes. The main players are just so juiced odds-wise this is my only viable path value-wise. So that's 6U in TD plays for 9 players, and 43U overall. If the favorites win, it sets up for quite the AFCG/NFCG, but I'm hoping the dogs can keep it close (and hoping that the dogs can hit some more longshot TD's as well lol). BOL! WEEK 19 FINAL ATS/ML: 47-41-1, +8.8U (WK 19 - 2-1, +1.3U) PLAYER PROPS: 162-157, +111.5U (WK 19 - 7-12, -14.3U ) LONGSHOT TD: 46-284, +63.3U (WK 19 - 4-10, +23.4U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950; WK17 - J-Johnson +550, J-Browning +1100, C-Kolar +1500, J-Love +950 & J-Mundt +1100; WK18 K-Miller +400; WK19 - B-Jordan +800 & T-Atwell +1000 & D-Johnson +500 & C-Austin +2000) TOTAL - +183.5U (WK1: +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U; WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; WK17 - +23.3U; WK18 -9.4U; WK19 - +10.3U; 1503U stake so far) Edited January 22 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Josh Allen O40.5 rush yards -115 PB Best number i could get anywhere by 2-4 yards Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I like the Packers and Texans to cover 9.5 but i also played SF ML and GB to score 17 at +115 MGM Balt ML and Houston to score 16 +156 DK 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Well Fournette gets released - so that bet voids. In addition, Noah Brown goes to the IR, so that adds a couple of Texans plays: NEW ADDED WED PM - John Metchie III +600 Bodog / +10000 2+ FD (now +8000) 0.4U / 0.1U & Xavier Huchinson +1200 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ BAL - with news that Noah Brown is on IR, it basically solidifies Metchie as the WR2-3 with Robert Woods, and Hutchinson as the other deep threat / WR4, so worth a play at their #'s. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 (edited) 22 hours ago, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Josh Allen O40.5 rush yards -115 PB Best number i could get anywhere by 2-4 yards Adding KC ML +135 ESPN Ill back experience and the 2 day rest advantage Travis Kelce Over 60.5 yards -105 Fanatics/PB Edited January 18 by JaguarCrazy2832 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 dang Christian watson at 28.5 is so tempting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 (edited) NEW ADDED FRI AM - Isaiah Likely O34.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 36.5), 50+ rec yds +200 1U DK & 68+ rec yds +550 0.5U DK vs. HOU - pretty simple given how much HOU TE D struggles. Also: NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brevin Jordan O13.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +200 1U, 50 rec yds +1000 0.5U DK @ BAL - just too low a number for the Texans 3rd best matchup. NEW ADDED FRI AM John Metchie O21.5,rec yds 2U FD (DK - 25.5), 38+ rec yds +210 1U, 53+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ BAL - way too low for the WR2-3. Edited January 19 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted January 19 Share Posted January 19 Anyone have Fanatics/PointsBet? They are pissing me off with pulling money from my bank account instead of my PayPal account even though the account has $. I deleted the payment method and now they want a card # to link my PayPal account so I expect it will just happen again smh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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