Offseason Work to do

[jebrick]

Feller is a RFA

[Chieferific]

5 hours ago, jebrick said:

I will be stunned if a TE goes in the 1st round.  It is a bad class

Very weak. That pushes Hopkins up. Maybe not into the 1st but I think before #49. 

[AFF]

Heyward will be getting an extension...DeCastro makes sense as well.

Even Nelson getting an extension makes sense since his cap hit went up 2.5x what it is last year.

Another off the wall idea is tendering Hilton and then trading him for a pick...would allow Sutton a bigger role and see if he’s the successor to Haden as soon as 2021.

Edited January 2, 2020 by AlanFanecaFan

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, jebrick said:

Add 2.4M for Dangerfield

That's awfully expensive for a guy who signed a 2 year $1.2M (total, not per year) contract 2 years ago. 

To me, Hargrave and Finney are just NFL business moves. Hargrave is a really good player and if it was wasnt for Heyward and Tuitt, he would be a long time Steeler. But we have 2 guys in the pecking order in front of him (both by talent and financials) in a predominantly 2 man position. Paying him top of the 2nd tier money doesnt really make sense. Tyson Aluala did great this year and Buggs has potential as well. Minimum Vet FA/Draft slot fills his rotational void admirably. Even sans Dupree, I wouldnt sign Hargrave. Just doesnt make sense unless you are eliminating Heyward or Tuitt - 1 of which is dumb the other of which is difficult. 

Spotrac has the "Market Value" for Hargrave at $14.7 annually, and while I think that's high, I can absolutely see around the $10M+ mark. But for that money, at what his spot on the roster actually is -- I think we could easily split that money between 2 capable players on the roster and not have a significant drop.

Finney didnt get an extension to be the Starter last year when the Steelers had the most leverage. Instead, they brought back the 34 year old guy and then sat Finney for the RT during a game because of the talent. That's not screaming long term plans. I see Finney getting anywhere between $5-8M and I think we are better of spending that money elsewhere. 

Ultimately though, I never get why we get so caught up this time of the year in cap space. The Steelers, along with 1/3 of the other teams in the league, find the ways to negotiate the cap. Happens every year, will happen again this year. Restructuring Tuiit, DeCastro, and Nelson saves us around $11M. Pouncey gives us just over $2M as well. Eliminating Foster and Chickillo is another $9M. Extending Heyward and Villy will net us some extra room too. Id even consider looking at a Haden extension as well. Im probably way off, because I am guessing, But I would think we could clear $8M between their 3 extensions. 

I ultimately think that Vance is still on the team, albeit on a new deal. I could also see a Mark Barron extension that pushes his money into other years and significantly decreases the cap hit (His choice - more years as a Steeler or FA). My guessing game is that we can get them both to play with around $7M in savings against the cap (or, FA which frees up more).

Everything I just listed puts us around $40M cap space mark. Obviously this wont all happen and I am sure I am wrong about some of it -- but just trying to make an exaggerated example of why this stuff doesnt worry me. If they want Dupree -- they are gonna get Dupree. If they wanted Dupree AND Hargrave, they will get Dupree and Hargrave. 

[jebrick]

1 hour ago, Chieferific said:

Very weak. That pushes Hopkins up. Maybe not into the 1st but I think before #49. 

You may be right but it will not surprise me if all the TEs are on the board when the Steelers pick.  There is a fine line separating Hopkins from Hunter Bryant and Colby Parkinson.  Albert Okwuegbunam is going to get some talk because he looks the part of a NFL TE.  Josiah Deguara is one of the better blockers but is he that much better than Vannett and he offers next to nothing in the passing game that the Steelers do not already have.

Things will get interesting if Thad Moss comes out.

Edited January 2, 2020 by jebrick

[jebrick]

13 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

That's awfully expensive for a guy who signed a 2 year $1.2M (total, not per year) contract 2 years ago.

That is the lowball RFA tender.  Perhaps they do not tender him and sign him cheaper as a FA.  I expect they will do the same with Canaday.

[Chieferific]

16 minutes ago, jebrick said:

You may be right but it will not surprise me if all the TEs are on the board when the Steelers pick.  There is a fine line separating Hopkins from Hunter Bryant and Colby Parkinson.  Albert Okwuegbunam is going to get some talk because he looks the part of a NFL TE.  Josiah Deguara is one of the better blockers but is he that much better than Vannett and he offers next to nothing in the passing game that the Steelers do not already have.

I'd be a little surprised given the talent pool. Fingers crossed. Bryant is more WR then TE imo. I like Parkinson. He's a little more athletic JJ.  Not a fan of AO.  I like Deguara. Not sure he's a full time TE tho.  Agree with your overall premise tho. 

[Dcash4]

1 hour ago, jebrick said:

That is the lowball RFA tender.  Perhaps they do not tender him and sign him cheaper as a FA.  I expect they will do the same with Canaday.

I cannot see them bringing back 30 year old Jordan Dangerfield at $2.4. That makes no sense. There’s no value at that cost. 

[Cbrunn]

Based on the over the cap calculator they can get up to 30 mil by making the obvious cuts, 25 without cutting pouncey... That's plenty of money to resign the needed guys and maybe get a mid tier free agent

Foster, Vance, chikalo , Baron, and pouncey (although that's not actually going to happen) , I'd say bye to them in a heart beat to keep the defense together 

[Dcash4]

I know Barron is the hot name to throw out there, but I think he is going to be here next year. I think we are better off working on an extension to lower the cap than we are cutting him.

Bush played 82% of the snaps, Barron 70%, and Williams 37%. Bushes role is only going to grow, but there are still a ton of replacement snaps from Barron that they most likely don’t want to give to Williams. 

I’m not a big fan of Barron, but I think as Bush takes the full time ILB gig, there is a role to carve out between Barron and Williams. If they can work out a better cap number for Barron - Bush, Barron, Williams, and Gilbert isn’t a bad grouping for another 2 years. 

[Chieferific]

53 minutes ago, Dcash4 said:

I know Barron is the hot name to throw out there, but I think he is going to be here next year. I think we are better off working on an extension to lower the cap than we are cutting him.

Bush played 82% of the snaps, Barron 70%, and Williams 37%. Bushes role is only going to grow, but there are still a ton of replacement snaps from Barron that they most likely don’t want to give to Williams. 

I’m not a big fan of Barron, but I think as Bush takes the full time ILB gig, there is a role to carve out between Barron and Williams. If they can work out a better cap number for Barron - Bush, Barron, Williams, and Gilbert isn’t a bad grouping for another 2 years. 

I think you're right but I don't have to like it.  Clearly they want a more athletic ILB group thus the 37% snap count for Williams. But Baron isn't the answer imo. I actually feel like Edmunds (though lighter) could handle the same duties if they had another SS worth a crap. But that's another story.  Gilbert has potential but more bodies are needed. No, they prolly won't cut Baron this year due to what's behind him but perhaps the following year. Which to me would be fine if they draft another athletic ILB this year (Monty Rice, Paddy Fisher, Chazz Surratt...) and let him sit, learn and get stronger.  Then cut Baron and maybe VW in 2021. 

[Cbrunn]

There is no way you can justify keeping, Vance McDonald and Baron over resigning bud

Vance and Baron is 10 mil right there

You keep bud and tj together at whatever the cost you have to give up, especially overpaid vets who could be replaced way easily then a pass rusher

[3rivers]

10 minutes ago, Cbrunn said:

There is no way you can justify keeping, Vance McDonald and Baron over resigning bud

Vance and Baron is 10 mil right there

You keep bud and tj together at whatever the cost you have to give up, especially overpaid vets who could be replaced way easily then a pass rusher

good point. Vance can't stay on the field, got minimal receptions, and baron could be replaced but is a player tomlin praised so you know he stays. For the scheme they run , a baron type player (S with range at LB) should be attainable, but I don't know who is out there.  But if you save $10M right there, thats a start. Good cap work right there.

I see Hargrave as the one that leaves and gets a nice deal somewhere else. Too many edge rushers on the market, is I expect dupree to stay. Finney should stay especially since pouncey had the injury which as of now we still need to learn more about.

[Cbrunn]

52 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

good point. Vance can't stay on the field, got minimal receptions, and baron could be replaced but is a player tomlin praised so you know he stays. For the scheme they run , a baron type player (S with range at LB) should be attainable, but I don't know who is out there.  But if you save $10M right there, thats a start. Good cap work right there.

I see Hargrave as the one that leaves and gets a nice deal somewhere else. Too many edge rushers on the market, is I expect dupree to stay. Finney should stay especially since pouncey had the injury which as of now we still need to learn more about.

If antonie Winfield Jr is there in the 2nd, I run to draft him

I know everyone wants offense but another Fitzpatrick on the other side with Edmunds sliding down and playing the Baron role

Winfield checks off all boxes they look for, and Is a major playmaker

If he declares, I don't think he made a decision yet

Edited January 3, 2020 by Cbrunn

[Steeler Hitman]

On 11/21/2019 at 12:15 PM, Lambert44 said:

Worried about the offense - Oline has been awful this year and it should have been our strong point on Offense

I think many people underestimate not having a solid #1 QB. easy for defenses to stack the line and wait for our QB's to try to dump the ball when they get in trouble. No doubt, OL play was not as good, but realistically a lot had to do with how defenses lined up to stop us and it worked with both Mason and Duck.

QB - who knows how Ben will recover and Rudolph is not the answer.

While Ben may not be Ben of 2008 or even 2017, he has the smarts and knows how to beat defenses. This is something our young  inexperienced Qb's could not do. People are quick to throw young players to the curb. Let's be honest, we did not want nor did the Steelers plan to play Mason until 2022 when Ben retires. Young QB's that start on fire are not the norm with the exception of ( Deshaun, LaMaar, and Patrick).

Receivers - Not thrilled here either many games against good defenses very little separation, is JUJU a number 1?

That realistically can't be answered until you get a QB1 on the field.  Even great players stats go down without a #1. I remember AB complaining about Mike Vick when Ben went down. The offense did not play great against NE and Seattle with Ben, but I honestly believe that they would have been clicking soon. No doubt there were good defenses that the Steelers played, but the offense was also limited. I will delve into that in another post later.

Backs - Connor cant stay on the field, Samuels is a 3rd down back, Snell????

I agree. There are some decent backs coming out in the draft, but I kinda would like an established vet. I know that Coach T does not like the two or three headed RB Monster combo, but it may be best for Connor and another RB's health and freshness come January or February. Would you consider bringing Leveon Bell back? Jets will try t unload him and I don't think anyone is going to give up top trade value (#1 or #2).  He may be available for a #3 or even a #4 (I am guessing here).  I know his deal was top loaded, but if the cap number is friendly, I would consider it. Usually I don't go backwards, but I think this could be mutually beneficial for both sides. Connor and Bell would be a heck of a one-two combo and you could even do some two back stuff as Bell can still split out as a #3 WR. 

Tight Ends average at best

Yep. I am debating on weather to bring Vance back.  His production and blocking were down, but also no Big Ben and defenses loaded up the box and our QB's could not consistently recognize or beat it. Is there another free agent in that price range that could give me what Vance does?  I really like Vannett and think he could fill the role and would be better getting to play with Ben.  Either way, there needs to be an influx of talent here via draft or free agency.  My question is can the Steelers gain more by losing Vance at the position or does it further weaken it? I have to evaluate options and think on that one. 

Very concerning going in to next year!

I don't like to do "what if's," but...... I do believe that a healthy Ben would have raised the Steelers win total by 4 - 5 games (Seattle, San Fran, Baltimore #1, Buffalo, NY Jets). In my humble opinion at worst this team is 11 - 5 with Ben and all other things being equal (defense, etc). This team does not have to completely rebuild. They have some solid players to build on and enough veterans to hold it together.  

On defense I would add a NG type who can help clog the middle.  I am still not a fan of Big Mt. McCullers inside.  They may lose Hargraves, but they if Tuitt and Heyward are there, they are the Nickel DT's. A have been saying try to sign Danny Shelton. He would help our run defense tremendously and with Bush and Minkah the Steelers are pretty rock solid up the middle of the defense.  Either Edmunds will continue to develop or start the more savy and experienced Sean Davis beside Minkah.  Minkahs numbers went down because teams stopped throwing at him consistently. Most of the big pass plays came against Edmunds.  No knock to him, but his development curve is slower a la Bud Dupree prior to this year.  Not a fan of Barron's play year one.  I may draft or sign another cheaper veteran to replace him and start Vince and Bush next season.  Artie is gone and so I look to draft and develop another CB and hope that Justin Layne steps up and I still have Hilton and Cam. With some offense, this defense may be able to move to the ELITE level.

On Offense it starts with a healthy or healthier Ben.  I am going to boost my OL. Foster is let go and I either try to re-sign Finney or wait on the draft. Ideally, I would keep Finney at LG and draft a replacement for Pouncey in a few years. TE is still up in the air with me, but I am happy with the young core of WR's and Ben as QB1.  I would look to add a veteran free agent QB to the team. I would love a Marcus Mariotta to develop for two years, but it won't happen $$$ and I am sure Mariotta wants to play. Add anaother veteran RB to the mix.  Snell and Whyte are trending up and Samuels is trending down.  I at least make some calls to inquire about reuniting with Bell if the price is right on both ends.  Change the philosophy with Ben to allow for more ball control and solid running a la B-more, San Fran, and Indy.  With the defense, a balanced attack and an aging, but still very good QB the offense is now fixed.

I think this team could strongly contend for the elusive #7 in 2020.