Strasburg, Natinals Agree to 7 year/$245MM Deal

[1ForTheThumb]

14 hours ago, redsoxsuck05 said:

This is good for baseball. We need more Lerners and less John Henrys.

And less of whomever is Acuña and Albies’ agent.

I'm assuming the Henry comment is related to getting under the luxury tax threshold this year, which I get; but, it's hard to call him cheap. He's shelled out some ridiculous big-money contracts, and the Sox have the highest payroll in baseball.

[ramssuperbowl99]

1 hour ago, 1ForTheThumb said:

But Kris Bryant told me players don't get paid anymore.

Kris Bryant should be a free agent after this year, but isn't because the Cubs blatantly manipulated his service time. There's an ongoing grievance about it. I'd be furious if I was him watching these deals get signed. 

 

And honestly, this offseason is looking like everything is "back to normal", but I don't blame the MLBPA if they're still mad about the previous 2. Mike Moustakas was the same player for 3 straight seasons, then all of the sudden goes from 1 year/$6MM or 1 year/$16MM to 4 years/$64MM? Yasmani Grandal posted a 5 win season, then only gets the qualifying offer, posts another 5 win season, and gets 4 years/$73MM? That just doesn't add up.

[ramssuperbowl99]

11 hours ago, mse326 said:

I also disagree with some of what you are ok with. You should spend based on what you are expecting to get, not what they've done. I get that there is an unspoken think with the league and PA that that is how it should work because they underpay players as they start, but the latter part is what needs changing. And I sure as hell am not spending $7M a year for a hall of fame cap.

The unspoken agreement is real, we can't just pretend it doesn't exist. I'd like to change it so that players are paid when they're providing value, but this is the system we're in and it doesn't seem like teams are all that eager to change how they're paying for players. 

I greatly prefer this to the past 2 years.

[Slateman]

2 minutes ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

Kris Bryant should be a free agent after this year, but isn't because the Cubs blatantly manipulated his service time. There's an ongoing grievance about it. I'd be furious if I was him watching these deals get signed. 

 

And honestly, this offseason is looking like everything is "back to normal", but I don't blame the MLBPA if they're still mad about the previous 2. Mike Moustakas was the same player for 3 straight seasons, then all of the sudden goes from 1 year/$6MM or 1 year/$16MM to 4 years/$64MM? Yasmani Grandal posted a 5 win season, then only gets the qualifying offer, posts another 5 win season, and gets 4 years/$73MM? That just doesn't add up.

It's off topic here, but what happens if the Cubs trade Bryant and the grievance is adjudicated that the Cubs manipulated service time, and Bryant is granted free agency a year early? 

[ramssuperbowl99]

16 minutes ago, Slateman said:

It's off topic here, but what happens if the Cubs trade Bryant and the grievance is adjudicated that the Cubs manipulated service time, and Bryant is granted free agency a year early? 

That's a good question. I'd imagine that Bryant is practically untradeable until the grievance is resolved because no team would want to pay for 2 years and only get 1, while the Cubs wouldn't want to trade him with a price tag of 1 year when he might be under team control for 2.

Hypothetically, if someone traded for him and Bryant wins the grievance, I'm guessing that just make him a free agent and the other team is SoL.

[hrubes20]

1 hour ago, ramssuperbowl99 said:

That's a good question. I'd imagine that Bryant is practically untradeable until the grievance is resolved because no team would want to pay for 2 years and only get 1, while the Cubs wouldn't want to trade him with a price tag of 1 year when he might be under team control for 2.

Hypothetically, if someone traded for him and Bryant wins the grievance, I'm guessing that just make him a free agent and the other team is SoL.

This.  It won't happen until the arbiter finally gets around to making his decision.  It's ridiculous that it's to the point of "when" not "if" Bryant gets traded from a team with as deep of pockets as the Cubs, but here we are.

[mse326]

6 hours ago, Slateman said:

There is zero evidence that one pitch is "healthier" than another. If we were looking for some sort of correlation, I'd say the elimination of his slider did more for his health than any other pitch.

His fastball velo has dropped almost 2mph in two seasons. This coincides  with him altering his delivery to basically eliminate a windup. At the same time, he's utilized his other pitches more.

In 2017, he didn't have a two seamer and threw his four seamer over 50% of the time.

2018, he tinkered with a two seamer, throwing it 7% of the time and throwing his curve ball a little less while trying to develop a slider. He throws his 4 seamer 45% of the time

2019: Strasburg all but drops the slider (he threw 12 according to FG). Instead, he has fully committed to the 2 seamer, throwing it 18% of the time, while spinning that curveball a hair over 30% of the time. He is throwing a fastball (of any variety) less than 50% of the time. 

Strasburg isn't a power pitcher anymore. At best, he's some sort of hybrid between a finesse pitcher, and what's more likely is that removing the windup from his delivery has decreased his velo, making him focus on his mechanics and his ability to pitch. He will continue to lose velo, but I don't think it will be as dramatic. And losing 3-5 mph on his change and curve won't diminish those pitches. God help hitters if Sanchez teaches him how to do that big, looping curve.

 

 

Again maybe he is in the middle of transforming, I fully agree he isn't as power related as he was. But there are still some red flags given his injury history.

https://www.drivelinebaseball.com/2017/02/fastballs-offspeed-pitches-comparative-relative-elbow-stress/
While this backs up that no pitch in general is more dangerous, it does show that the curve is easily the most dangerous per mph and Stras last year threw the 11th hardest average curveball (with 4th highest usage) and velocity has the bigger correlation and he was still top 20 in average fastball velocity (rankings based on qualified starters).

I wouldn't be as concerned if he didn't already have the injury history. Not just TJS but also injuries throughout that cost him a few weeks at a time. I really do hope that is behind him and his adjustments help alleviate those issues because I do enjoy watching nasty pitching he is about the best at that. But I don't know that I'd bet this much money on it.

[tom cody]

I figured he'd stay with the Nats. He's one of the better pitchers in baseball but that's a bit of a long term deal IMO. 

[JaguarCrazy2832]

Figured they’d keep the pitcher