dtait93 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, mistakey said: they arent 1. florida isnt counting deaths in their state if they are "snowbirds" 2. many more are dying at home and arent showing up in the death totals its likely undercounted, and you're participating in the same logic that allowed China to severely undercount their death totals which blinded the rest of the world to how bad it is. In regards to FL, the way I understood it is the FL Dep. of Health is only counting FL resident deaths while the Medical Examiners Commission is classifying deaths based on the county where the person actually died. Obviously the numbers would be higher across the board if we tested 329 million people, but I’m interested in the accuracy of those numbers. We could have say for example 500k COVID-19 related deaths out of that 329 million. But if that 500k is counted the way we’re counting it up now, it’s important to know how many died from COVID-19 itself or died from unrelated causes while happening to test positive. For the numbers we have this very moment though, it’s a guarantee they are overreported. If we ran an audit to understand who has actually died from the virus and who didn’t it would be eye opening for everyone. Maybe I’m proven right, maybe you are, but who knows how much the numbers are skewed until we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 54 minutes ago, mistakey said: they arent 1. florida isnt counting deaths in their state if they are "snowbirds" 2. many more are dying at home and arent showing up in the death totals its likely undercounted, and you're participating in the same logic that allowed China to severely undercount their death totals which blinded the rest of the world to how bad it is. Deaths are absolutely undercounted but cases are undercounted by orders of magnitude more I dont think the absolute numbers are really that relevant (50k vs 100k people dying isn't something you can really comprehend... its a statistic) whats relevant is the shape of the curve, R0, CFR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, mission27 said: Meanwhile the MoL sensibly takes the data for what it’s worth and doesn’t worry about it, smugness shines through the noise always, aren’t you glad you have the MoL You are so relentlessly consistent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 1 minute ago, dtait93 said: In regards to FL, the way I understood it is the FL Dep. of Health is only counting FL resident deaths while the Medical Examiners Commission is classifying deaths based on the county where the person actually died. Obviously the numbers would be higher across the board if we tested 329 million people, but I’m interested in the accuracy of those numbers. We could have say for example 500k COVID-19 related deaths out of that 329 million. But if that 500k is counted the way we’re counting it up now, it’s important to know how many died from COVID-19 itself or died from unrelated causes while happening to test positive. For the numbers we have this very moment though, it’s a guarantee they are overreported. If we ran an audit to understand who has actually died from the virus and who didn’t it would be eye opening for everyone. Maybe I’m proven right, maybe you are, but who knows how much the numbers are skewed until we do. Completely agree. The unreported deaths are real, but people are dying all the time, so if 5 or 10% of your population is infected and you count anyone dying with COVID as someone dying from COVID you are exaggerating the death count. And it gets into tricky area where you have someone who is old and has a bunch of underlying conditions like someone with heart failure and also has COVID and there could be multiple things contributing to death, COVID probably didn't help but whose to say this person wouldn't have died within a week anyway? Its really complicated. What we do know is every single study that has looked at a statistically meaningful, controlled population suggests as a CFR below 0.5%. My personal guess is the number is around 0.2%-0.4% and could be much lower in a couple of months with more learnings on how to treat and therapeutics. Goes without saying it could also be higher if healthcare systems truly break down (our healthcare workers are doing an outstanding job keeping this from happening so far but its a risk). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, dtait93 said: In regards to FL, the way I understood it is the FL Dep. of Health is only counting FL resident deaths while the Medical Examiners Commission is classifying deaths based on the county where the person actually died. Obviously the numbers would be higher across the board if we tested 329 million people, but I’m interested in the accuracy of those numbers. We could have say for example 500k COVID-19 related deaths out of that 329 million. But if that 500k is counted the way we’re counting it up now, it’s important to know how many died from COVID-19 itself or died from unrelated causes while happening to test positive. For the numbers we have this very moment though, it’s a guarantee they are overreported. If we ran an audit to understand who has actually died from the virus and who didn’t it would be eye opening for everyone. Maybe I’m proven right, maybe you are, but who knows how much the numbers are skewed until we do. what are you talking about? you admit that they are obviously underreported by stating Obviously the numbers would be higher across the board if we tested 329 million people, and then say they are overreported? For the numbers we have this very moment though, it’s a guarantee they are overreported nervous_space_man_pick_one_button.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mistakey said: what are you talking about? you admit that they are obviously underreported by stating Obviously the numbers would be higher across the board if we tested 329 million people, and then say they are overreported? For the numbers we have this very moment though, it’s a guarantee they are overreported nervous_space_man_pick_one_button.gif I think when he says the number is over-reported he's talking about death rate not number of deaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, mission27 said: Deaths are absolutely undercounted but cases are undercounted by orders of magnitude more I dont think the absolute numbers are really that relevant (50k vs 100k people dying isn't something you can really comprehend... its a statistic) whats relevant is the shape of the curve, R0, CFR one would think someone as smug as you could understand a literal doubling of people dying but i guess youre just not as smug as we thought you were Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mistakey Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 Just now, mission27 said: I think when he says the number is over-reported he's talking about death rate not number of deaths no he's propagating a certain type of propaganda in order to question the pandemic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
animaltested Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 2 hours ago, ramssuperbowl99 said: Can we get a Korean baseball subforum please? KBO games are so dope. BYOB, cheerleaders, chants, cheap food, cheap tickets, and bat flips being standard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nex_Gen Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 There's more and more speculation COVID-19 had already made it's rounds in the US in December/January, particularly in California (with all the ties to Asia), as people seem to be recounting mysteries illnesses that couldn't be given a clear diagnosis and/or symptoms that completely coincide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramssuperbowl99 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, animaltested said: KBO games are so dope. BYOB, cheerleaders, chants, cheap food, cheap tickets, and bat flips being standard. Also there aren't any Brian McCann's to ruin it for other people or other Astros to cheat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, mistakey said: no he's propagating a certain type of propaganda in order to question the pandemic Saying the CFR is significantly below the 3% WHO estimate is not propaganda, its the consensus view of the epidemiological community Its very reasonable to say if this disease is significantly less deadly than we thought and much more widespread then we may not have needed quite as harsh a public health response Where dtait and I may differ is I don't think public health experts ever thought the CFR was truly 3%, they've said all along its likely much much lower, so I dont think finding out the CFR is 1/10th of that number would change their opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mega Ron Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Nex_Gen said: There's more and more speculation COVID-19 had already made it's rounds in the US in December/January, particularly in California (with all the ties to Asia), as people seem to be recounting mysteries illnesses that couldn't be given a clear diagnosis and/or symptoms that completely coincide. Were they also complaining of lots of people dying from it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlevinKelevra Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, mission27 said: Deaths are absolutely undercounted but cases are undercounted by orders of magnitude more I dont think the absolute numbers are really that relevant (50k vs 100k people dying isn't something you can really comprehend... its a statistic) whats relevant is the shape of the curve, R0, CFR LMAO, so the usa, which according to you is in "tier 2" , yet has "orders of magnitude" under-reporting of cases, which would mean there are at least 56 Million cases in the USA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mission27 Posted April 13, 2020 Share Posted April 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Nex_Gen said: There's more and more speculation COVID-19 had already made it's rounds in the US in December/January, particularly in California (with all the ties to Asia), as people seem to be recounting mysteries illnesses that couldn't be given a clear diagnosis and/or symptoms that completely coincide. As someone who was on the ground I can confirm this was happening in CA. mission likely has antibodies (along with many other diseases) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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