Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[squire12]

11 hours ago, kingseanjohn said:

Missouri is expecting a spike in the next week or two. It'll be interesting to see if that's due to more testing or something else.

How was the easter holiday weekend viewed by residents?

[TVScout]

3 hours ago, mission27 said:

Its probably the 'tremendous suicides' we were warned about 

(im kidding)

Slightly obsolete article from NYT:

Quote

Over the 31 days ending April 4, more than twice the typical number of New Yorkers died.

That total for the city includes deaths directly linked to the novel coronavirus as well as those from other causes, like heart attacks and cancer. Even this is only a partial count; we expect this number to rise as more deaths are counted.

These numbers contradict the notion that many people who are dying from the new virus would have died shortly anyway. And they suggest that the current coronavirus death figures understate the real toll of the virus, either because of undercounting of coronavirus deaths, increases in deaths that are normally preventable, or both.  

Detailed data about deaths are hard to collect in real time, and the best available numbers, still incomplete, can lag by up to two weeks. That also means that they do not include the last few days, when the highest number of coronavirus deaths so far have been recorded in the city.

Death from some causes, like car accidents, may be down at a time when many people are staying at home to prevent the spread of the virus. But any such reductions appear to be outweighed by increases in other causes of deaths.

“The extent of damage from the virus may be greater than we anticipated, and the indirect effects of the virus may be greater than we anticipated,” said Harlan Krumholz, a cardiologist and professor at Yale Medical School, who is particularly concerned that patients with cardiac conditions are not seeking care because of the fear of being infected with coronavirus. “Meaning that the overall toll is much greater.”

The overall rise in deaths suggests that the combination of crowded hospitals, an overtaxed ambulance system and a fearful population could have resulted in more deaths among people with heart attacks, strokes or other ailments who might have survived in normal circumstances.  

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/10/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

 

BTW, I tried to search that image but google only returned "how to take a screen shot". 

[pwny]

1 hour ago, TVScout said:

How does non cv19 mortality increase 20% in one year?

Hospitals get overrun, less people are able to get on ventilators, ambulance response times increase, emergency rooms take longer to handle cases, etc. 

And some are probably COVID-19 deaths that are unsuspected at this time. 

[TLO]

2 minutes ago, pwny said:

Hospitals get overrun, less people are able to get on ventilators, ambulance response times increase, emergency rooms take longer to handle cases, etc. 

And some are probably COVID-19 deaths that are unsuspected at this time. 

Not to mention there are only two data points being presented, so it’s hard to come to an earth shattering conclusion here. 

[TVScout]

Contamination at CDC lab delayed rollout of coronavirus tests

Quote

The failure by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to quickly produce a test kit for detecting the novel coronavirus was triggered by a glaring scientific breakdown at the CDC’s central laboratory complex in Atlanta, according to scientists with knowledge of the matter and a determination by federal regulators.

The CDC facilities that assembled the kits violated sound manufacturing practices, resulting in contamination of one of the three test components used in the highly sensitive detection process, the scientists said.

The cross contamination most likely occurred because chemical mixtures were assembled into the kits within a lab space that was also handling synthetic coronavirus material. The scientists also said the proximity deviated from accepted procedures and jeopardized testing for the virus.  

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/contamination-at-cdc-lab-delayed-rollout-of-coronavirus-tests/2020/04/18/fd7d3824-7139-11ea-aa80-c2470c6b2034_story.html

[mission27]

30 minutes ago, pwny said:

Hospitals get overrun, less people are able to get on ventilators, ambulance response times increase, emergency rooms take longer to handle cases, etc. 

And some are probably COVID-19 deaths that are unsuspected at this time. 

I’m going to guess it’s probably more the latter

Those other things are real but you have the opposite effect of people staying home and therefor not getting into accidents as often.  It’s hard for me to buy that less than 100% of incremental mortality in NYC rn is covid.  Probably well above 100% imo

[mission27]

6 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I’m going to guess it’s probably more the latter

Those other things are real but you have the opposite effect of people staying home and therefor not getting into accidents as often.  It’s hard for me to buy that less than 100% of incremental mortality in NYC rn is covid.  Probably well above 100% imo

WITH THAT BEING SAID

You don't know how many of the people who are dying now would have passed away within weeks or months

Mortality is one way to look at this but the age and health profile of those falling victim to the disease is relevant 

Mortality may be lower in late 2020 or 2021, because a lot of those who were the oldest and sickest in the city died earlier due to the disease

Its still a COVID death but it doesn't necessarily contradict the idea that most of the deaths are those who would have died relatively soon anyway... as long as by 'relatively soon' we mean the next 6-12 months, not the net few days

EDIT: Clearly that doesnt apply to someone who is in their 50s or 60s and morbidly obese. Someone like that could die of a heart attack or they could live another 20-30 years. I'm talking about those in their late 70s or 80s with serious pre-existing medical conditions, which is still a large portion of those dying from COVID even in NYC and the vast majority other places.

Edited April 18, 2020 by mission27

[pwny]

28 minutes ago, TLO said:

Not to mention there are only two data points being presented, so it’s hard to come to an earth shattering conclusion here. 

I explained in previous posts where the original data came from, but probably should have explained better in the post that I posted, the additional non-COVID-19 deaths seem in 2020 are based on the commissioner of the N.Y. health department stating that there are 3,000 additional deaths over what is normal for this time of year.

So the data point shouldn’t be viewed as exact for that section, but is illustrating the point that was actually being explained by the NY health department. Non-COVID deaths are up 3k over what they would normally be.

[kingseanjohn]

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

How was the easter holiday weekend viewed by residents?

I didn’t hear of any gatherings here. I know Kansas had some but nothing close to KC. 

[TVScout]

1 hour ago, mission27 said:

I’m going to guess it’s probably more the latter

Those other things are real but you have the opposite effect of people staying home and therefor not getting into accidents as often.  It’s hard for me to buy that less than 100% of incremental mortality in NYC rn is covid.  Probably well above 100% imo

For weeks officialdom has admitted mortality from cv 19 has been underestimated.  And this:

US coronavirus death totals compiled by CDC will now include 'probable' cases

Quote

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now counting "probable" cases of coronavirus among its tabulations, according to the agency's website.

The inclusion of such cases will add thousands to the total number of patients and deaths by including people who didn't have a positive test but showed signs of having the virus.

It comes after the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists suggested the CDC and state health departments add probable cases.

Previously, the CDC was only counting cases that had been confirmed by them or cases where the agency had yet to confirm a test done by a local or private entity.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/us-coronavirus-deaths-trends-wednesday/index.html

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, pwny said:

I explained in previous posts where the original data came from, but probably should have explained better in the post that I posted, the additional non-COVID-19 deaths seem in 2020 are based on the commissioner of the N.Y. health department stating that there are 3,000 additional deaths over what is normal for this time of year.

So the data point shouldn’t be viewed as exact for that section, but is illustrating the point that was actually being explained by the NY health department. Non-COVID deaths are up 3k over what they would normally be.

Curious, was this said before or after they reclassified 4-5k deaths as COVID deaths?

Because if it was before, then that reclassificaiton makes sense and they're probably now counting most of the COVID deaths properly.

If that's still the case after its hard to believe they arent missing a large number of COVID cases (probably at least 3k) because like I said earlier, very unlikely mortality would actually increase rather than decrease from other causes

[pwny]

14 minutes ago, mission27 said:

I’m going to guess it’s probably more the latter

Those other things are real but you have the opposite effect of people staying home and therefor not getting into accidents as often.  It’s hard for me to buy that less than 100% of incremental mortality in NYC rn is covid.  Probably well above 100% imo

Most accidents happen at home, though. So I’m not really sure how much that’s going down. it’s possible that’s actually increasing. And then people with cardiovascular issues getting more stressed, you’ve got a higher probability of heart attacks and strokes.

Ultimately, I think we’d both agree that all of these additional deaths are in some way connected to the crisis. And more importantly, the idea that New York is faking data that makes this look worse is just a garbage stance to have, because the actual impact of the virus is significantly larger than what’s being reported currently, whether that’s from unreported cases or from an overtaxed health care system.

Edited April 18, 2020 by pwny

[pwny]

10 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Curious, was this said before or after they reclassified 4-5k deaths as COVID deaths?

Because if it was before, then that reclassificaiton makes sense and they're probably now counting most of the COVID deaths properly.

If that's still the case after its hard to believe they arent missing a large number of COVID cases (probably at least 3k) because like I said earlier, very unlikely mortality would actually increase rather than decrease from other causes

After the reclassification. It was the day that they reclassified the 3,700 cases, he spoke explaining that the month timeframe also still had 3,000 more non-COVID deaths than is normal.

Edited April 18, 2020 by pwny

[pwny]

18 minutes ago, TVScout said:

For weeks officialdom has admitted mortality from cv 19 has been underestimated.  And this:

US coronavirus death totals compiled by CDC will now include 'probable' cases

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/15/health/us-coronavirus-deaths-trends-wednesday/index.html

But I was told that the CDC was already counting these and not calling them different from confirmed in an attempt to make the numbers look worse than they are.

[Mega Ron]

I think the second wave of this thing might be worse than the first.