Coronavirus (COVID-19)

[mistakey]

Just now, mission27 said:

I do expect to see a dramatic reduction in deaths per day in DC metro over the next month.  Lets check back in on June 17th and see which one of us was right.

This is the point.  This is the whole fn point.  It will be because of social controls and not because of seasonality. For someone who understands stats you should be able to parse the two effects out easily in your brain- i mean hell tge computer spitting out the regression does it for you.  
 

[mission27]

1 minute ago, mistakey said:

This is the point.  This is the whole fn point.  It will be because of social controls and not because of seasonality. For someone who understands stats you should be able to parse the two effects out easily in your brain- i mean hell tge computer spitting out the regression does it for you.  
 

It will be because of both 

[mission27]

4 minutes ago, mistakey said:

I guess having your opinions cover all bases makes you able to be right 100% of the time as long as people dont call you out for all the other wrong takes

I’m sorry I had a nuanced educated opinion on the issue that ended up being accurate instead of an opinion based on fear and emotion. My bad  

[naptownskinsfan]

8 minutes ago, mission27 said:

Lets put this dumb argument to bed.  This is what the MoL said originally that started all this:

It is now nearly 2 months later and things are starting to get back to some level of normality in Europe and much of the US, and will be heading in that direction soon even in NYC, based on all of the above. 

This is what Harvard said in their study released recently showing ~25% reduction in transmission from warm weather:

https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/covid19

The MoL never once said seasonality would end the virus or that seasonality was the only piece of the strategy. 

Mbtl's response at the time was to say basically seasonality had no impact because 'look at Australia' and when the MoL pointed out that Australia was flattening he said lol no its growing exponentially.  Well look at Australia now.  

This is a dumb argument, we all agree at this point that seasonality plays some role in slowing transmission and nobody (on FF) has ever claimed it was going to stop the virus in its tracks, so lets please move on

Lots of places are torn on the seasonality argument, and if you read the wording, no one wants to give a definitive "yes" or "no" because they don't want to be wrong.  Lots of "may" added in front of things.  

My hope is that this is seasonal, just due to how similar this is to other viruses, but I also realize that this is a brand new virus and that hardly anyone has immunity so seasonality may not be at play.  

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, mistakey said:

This is the point.  This is the whole fn point.  It will be because of social controls and not because of seasonality. For someone who understands stats you should be able to parse the two effects out easily in your brain- i mean hell tge computer spitting out the regression does it for you.  
 

But if you want to parse 

We shut down in March.  All the northern metros outbreaks continued to grow rapidly for weeks to over a month post lockdown despite tight controls, including cities in Canada.  Warmer areas of the country on the other hand had a much flatter curve despite generally less social controls.  I would argue that is decent evidence for a measurable effect from seasonality. 
 

Personally I think Florida with its population and lack of strict lockdowns, with Boston weather, would’ve been a war zone.  They’re lucky it’s hot and humid and that helped to slow transmission. 

[naptownskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, mission27 said:

But if you want to parse 

We shut down in March.  All the northern metros outbreaks continued to grow rapidly for weeks to over a month post lockdown despite tight controls, including cities in Canada.  Warmer areas of the country on the other hand had a much flatter curve despite generally less social controls.  I would argue that is decent evidence for a measurable effect from seasonality. 
 

Personally I think Florida with its population and lack of strict lockdowns, with Boston weather, would’ve been a war zone.  They’re lucky it’s hot and humid and that helped to slow transmission. 

One of their big spikes was after Mardi-Gras, and a lot of the panhandle residents especially make that trip because it's only 3-4 hours from them to New Orleans.  My dad and stepmom live in Pensacola area, and make the trip 2-3 times a year while they are down there (they live in Michigan in the summer) 

It also doesn't help their numbers to have Miami there, which is a huge international airport and a departure point for cruise ships.  

[TLO]

33 minutes ago, mistakey said:

1) naive and you know it.  You know that people look to you all.  You should keep this in mind instead of saying *shrug we smug *
 

2) it getting warmer and people thinking that it getting warm will save them without wearing a mask or socially distancing is a real thing. 

You guys got what you want- you got people looking to u for advice

act like it

 

1) didn’t we already have this argument? Hence our agreement to put in the disclaimer.

2) I suppose to make the record clear, we support social D and wearing masks. I’ve literally only left the house for food over the last two months, and I haven’t gone out sans mask. This is independent of our optimism on seasonality, and hopefully between these measures and warmer weather, we will continue to see further progress made. We support measured ways of opening as we will be seeing in LA county, despite the sensationalist headlines re the safer at home orders. 

[Xenos]

How are we going to enforce social distancing rules once everything reopens again? It shouldn't be the police's job given what just happened in NYC. At least not at first. But something like wearing masks is crucial to slow the spread, and it only works if everyone wears them.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/857144397/police-back-off-from-social-distancing-enforcement

Or do we hope for civilian ambassadors for something crucial like this?

Quote

One solution may be to move officers back from the front lines of enforcement. In Florida, the city of Clearwater is using civilian "ambassadors" to roam the beaches remind the public to keep social distance, while the police hang back. Police chief Dan Slaughter says the intention is to put communication ahead of enforcement.
"All that communication is to avoid the officer having to get involved in something that we would quite honesty wish we would not have to be involved in," he says.
It's an approach being tried in New York, too. Despite Mayor de Blasio's insistence that the NYPD stay in the mix, he says the city is also preparing to send out about 2,300 civilian ambassadors to remind New Yorkers to keep their distance, as the weather warms up.

 

[mission27]

3 minutes ago, Xenos said:

How are we going to enforce social distancing rules once everything reopens again? It shouldn't be the police's job given what just happened in NYC. At least not at first. But something like wearing masks is crucial to slow the spread, and it only works if everyone wears them.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/15/857144397/police-back-off-from-social-distancing-enforcement

Or do we hope for civilian ambassadors for something crucial like this?

 

Public shame.  I think thats enough because at this point honestly 1 person breaking the rules isn't going to change the trajectory of the national outbreak.  Just follow the rules and avoid people who aren't and if there's enough social pressure most people will do it.  Around here, anyone not wearing a mask is like a leper. 

[seriously27]

We really shouldn't be discussing the impact on opening up and the weather patterns on certain days for at least another week. People are not getting tested enough to conclude whether a hot day did or did not cause a drop in transmission numbers. We need to wait at least two weeks to really get a better idea whether opening up and/or higher temperatures and humidity are having an effect on those numbers. You can't look at the weather patterns for the day and then compare them to the numbers from that day because they don't correlate. 

[mission27]

2 minutes ago, seriously27 said:

You can't look at the weather patterns for the day and then compare them to the numbers from that day because they don't correlate. 

To be fair, nobody is doing this 

[Danger]

24 minutes ago, mission27 said:

To be fair, nobody is doing this 

Some are. The same people who are vandalizing 5G towers.

[SwAg]

1 hour ago, mistakey said:

1) naive and you know it.  You know that people look to you all.  You should keep this in mind instead of saying *shrug we smug *
 

2) it getting warmer and people thinking that it getting warm will save them without wearing a mask or socially distancing is a real thing. 

You guys got what you want- you got people looking to u for advice

act like it

 

To be fair, I don’t think people actually look to Mission and TLO for anything beyond entertainment on this subject.  Or, at least they shouldn’t.

[mistakey]

4 minutes ago, SwAg said:

To be fair, I don’t think people actually look to Mission and TLO for anything beyond entertainment on this subject.  Or, at least they shouldn’t.

They do

[naptownskinsfan]

At least we should be stocked up on toilet paper.  Whatever excess has been built up likely gets depleted if that hugs the coast.