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2020 Offense Outlook


incognito_man

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GB tried a lot of deep passes, so its not like they were timid - however, the success rate was abysmal due to errant throws and lots of drops
Some of that comes from a new offense, some of that is QB accuracy and some of that is young WR's not seeing the defensive adjustments in the same way as the QB.

On one deep throw to Lazard, AR missed badly - but when they did the interview post game, Lazard said he bent the route shorter based on what he thought the Safety was doing, while AR saw the Safety differently and put the ball where he thought Lazard was gonna be.

On the deep ball to open the game vs the bears, AR tossed one that hit MVS in the hands and MVS whiffed - but there was no chance for an INT either

There's hope that some of those misses get cleaned up in year 2 of MLF offense and the continued development of young WRs. It would be interesting to look at deep ball accuracy/completion rate with Adams vs others to see how that looks. Those 2 are on the same page more often than not.  But even there, Adams ran his route differently than planned in the Seattle playoff game and AR said it was a better adjustment than what he envisioned and it ended up being the key play in sticking a dagger in the seahawks throat.

Edited by Shanedorf
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On 4/25/2020 at 4:21 PM, incognito_man said:

I wanted to put together a compilation of changes to this offense heading into 2020. Here's a breakdown of snaps from 2019 to start:

Player Pos Num Pct
Billy Turner G 1076 99.81%
David Bakhtiari T 1075 99.72%
Aaron Rodgers QB 1057 98.05%
Elgton Jenkins G 964 89.42%
Corey Linsley C 950 88.13%
Bryan Bulaga T 898 83.30%
Davante Adams WR 678 62.89%
Aaron Jones RB 663 61.50%
Geronimo Allison WR 638 59.18%
Jimmy Graham TE 622 57.70%
Marquez Valdes-Scantling WR 542 50.28%
Marcedes Lewis TE 487 45.18%
Allen Lazard WR 479 44.43%
Jamaal Williams RB 373 34.60%
Jake Kumerow WR 328 30.43%
Robert Tonyan TE 193 17.90%
Danny Vitale FB 170 15.77%
Alex Light T 151 14.01%
Lucas Patrick C 137 12.71%
Lane Taylor G 114 10.58%
Jace Sternberger TE 60 5.57%
Darrius Shepherd WR 53 4.92%
Jared Veldheer T 35 3.25%
Tra Carson RB 24 2.23%
Tyler Ervin RB 24 2.23%
Tim Boyle QB 21 1.95%
Trevor Davis WR 21 1.95%
Evan Baylis TE 12 1.11%
Dexter Williams RB 10 0.93%

Biggest changes by snapcout heading into 2020 for preferred starters:

RIcky Wagner taking 1,000 snaps at RT for Bulaga

Adams/Funchess/ESB taking 1,200 snaps at WR for Allison/MVS/Lazard/Kumerow/Shepherd

Sternberger/Lewis/Josiah/Tonyan taking 800 snaps at TE/FB for Graham/Vitale

Dillon/Ervin taking 200 snaps from Jones/Williams (and maybe adding 50+ more to total)

Despite not drafting any WRs, I think the biggest improvement are those 1,200 snaps a healthy Adams, ESB and addition of Funchess will add. What do you fine folks see?

 

Love that you're still posting here! I used to post years ago, and I decided to check in. You're the first name I recognized. I know this post is way off topic, but I was extremely happy and nostalgic seeing a familiar name. Thank you!

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in the 90's, the Packers swiped Holmgren and the WCO from the niners and then used em to beat their ***** multiple times
Here's hoping the same thing happens again

https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2020/06/08/kyle-shanahan-and-the-benefits-of-21-personnel/

"This past draft cycle, the Green Bay Packers shocked most of the football world when their first three selections were in order: A potential replacement for Aaron Rodgers in Jordan Love, a running back in A.J. Dillon, and a tight end/H-Back in Josiah Deguara. Packers head coach Matt LaFleur, when discussion the Deguara selection, made it clear how he wants the Green Bay offense to look in 2020: "

"I love Josiah. He is extremely versatile. The thing he brings to our offense is, we can be in the same personnel grouping and we can line him up on the line of scrimmage or in a wing alignment or in the backfield. I think that adds stress on the defense. When you watch Josiah, you see such a gritty, tough player…We will try and emulate some that stuff in terms of how the 49ers use (Kyle) Juszczyk."

What is the model that LaFleur and others are looking to emulate? It begins with this number: 21. Specifically 21 personnel, a two receiver, two running back, one tight end package that San Francisco uses more than any other team in the league.

...what were the 49ers able to accomplish when they aligned in 21 personnel? The resulting play was successful a whopping 55% of the time.
That successful play rate for San Francisco using 21 personnel was much higher than the successful play rate when using 11 personnel – the three receiver package considered the “base” offensive grouping in today’s game – which was just 43%

Diving into these numbers even deeper, the 49ers were successful both throwing and running out of this personnel grouping. When they kept the football on the ground, the 49ers had nine rushing touchdowns, averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and were successful on 55% of their rushing plays.

 

Run or pass from the same personnel - and trade Allison, Vitale, Graham for (Funchess/EQ/Lazard) Deguara and Sternberger

 

 

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Packers 2019 offense

Packers Rushing Efficiency via Football Outsiders.
EPA / rush
 

From shotgun , GB ranked 1st
under center, GB ranked 23rd

11 personnel, GB ranked 6th
12 personnel GB ranked 9 out of 29
21 personnel GB ranked 11th out of 11
 

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10 hours ago, Lodestar said:

 

 This Is Fine GIF

Which 3 WRs are they using?  Davante, Funchess, Lazard? Then we have Aaron Jones, who didn't time well, and the TE that always slows things down.  This team immediately gets out of the bottom 5 when adding MVS and EQ to the mix.  Not that big of a deal.

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