The Pats QB situation

[m haynes]

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

I can see a lot of Pats fans wanting the quick fix from trading for Stafford.. the question I have is at what cost are you doing so? Lions fans believe they will get a Jay Cutler level trade ( 2 1sts and a 3rd). Stafford is much older than Cutler was.. but a better player so it's hard to gauge. I think QB has to be the missing piece to a championship level roster for you to give up that much for a 32 year old QB. Trade for him and you have also have a 33 million dollar cap hit at QB ( over half of their expected free agent money gone).

 

Patricia being on the team could determine a lot.. if he LOVED Stafford, he may convince BB to trade for him and spend all the remaining FA money on receivers. We have no idea how good Stafford would be without a good receiving corp.. from what I remember he has had pretty good weapons throughout his career. Trading for an older, expensive QB puts you in win now mode.. which I don't see how you could rebuild both this offense and defense without lots of FA money or lots of draft picks.. trading for him you lose both. 

49ers / Broncos / Colts make the make the most sense to me.. any of those teams could get Stafford and go for deep playoff runs the next 3-5 years. He would put up big numbers in the Broncos offense.  49ers could be in a Super Bowl next year with him .. which would be my preferred destination for him, even if it increases the chances of Jimmy G back in town which I really don't want.

 

My question is how good to you feel your QB needs to be to win a super bowl?  Getting a Brady / Watson/ Brees / Mahomes / Wilson level player isn't happening ..  can you win it all with a QB in the 10-15 range?? I would say that Stafford is in that 10-15 range and you could win one with him.

Out of the last 20 years.. the following teams won a super bowl without an elite QB (imo)

• Eagles ( Foles)
• Denver (Manning was done at that point .. elite defense)
• Baltimore (Flacco was elite that post season but still not an elite player)
• Giants Twice ( Manning not elite but did well in playoffs.. elite pass rushes) 
• Tampa Bay (Elite Defense.. I can't remember who the QB was)

The theme being you need a hell of a defense and a QB who 1) Doesn't turn the ball over 2) can make some big plays when it counts most. 

A big name I've heard is Ryan Tannehill.. how the Titans got such a steal and BB should have known Brady was leaving and found a way to pay Tannehill for when Brady left. It is hard to tell if Tannehill would be the same level of player without an elite running back, mainly because so much of his game comes off elite play action pass performances. Major point being that nobody in the league believed he was more than a backup.. or he would have gotten more money. Do you feel that you could win a super bowl with a Tannehill style offense on the Patriots? Based off 2020 I think this is actually the direction BB wants to go instead of an offense dependent on elite QB play. Which to me hurts chances of getting Stafford, because with Stafford I think you'd build the offense around him instead of the running game.

The Harris/Michel/etc. platoon are obviously nowhere near Derrick Henry, but I wonder if BB wants to transition the offense in that direction long term or if it was just out of necessity this past year. In 2020, the Patriots ran the ball 51.3% of the time ( 2nd behind only the Ravens).. if BB is looking to stick to something similar to that, a play action oriented offense would make a lot of sense. 2019 for instance they were at 59% passing, so it is hard to tell if BB prefers to having a passing centric offense or if it was Brady who wanted to pass more ( he had no weapons then either, so that couldn't have related to passing so much more). I sadly couldn't find any stats to show what % of those passing plays in 2020 were play action.. but I would guess off the top of my head a good amount of them were. This would mean transitioning away from the super quick passing game which essentially replaced the running game for years.. and focus more on play action / down field passes when teams are caught off guard (AJ Brown being perfect for that). Stafford could work well in this style.. but he's never had run focused teams from what I recall so I'm really not sure.

 

Surprise, surprise .. this brings me to another scenario where I feel Minshew is the best option for the Patriots to get this offseason. I've focused a majority of my research on his rookie year.. because the Jaguars this past season threw the ball 66% of the time ( tops in the league).. with a suspect offensive line, a rookie of the year candidate at RB.. and an average receiving corp. Furthering my point that their coaching staff was horrendous and no player could develop in that environment. 

Reference video further analyzing his rookie year below.

I think he lacked the year 2 jump because of an awful coaching staff that put 0 effort into building an offense around him. They 100% planned to tank for Trevor this season and put him in a position to fail ( I'm sure ownership wasn't very happy when he started 1-0 dominating the Colts). 

Give him a full offseason with the team.. Josh to scheme an offense around his strengths.. and $/draft picks to put weapons around him.. and I think you have a better Patriots team 2021 and beyond with him than Stafford. He isn't as good as Stafford.. but you can put 4-5 players around him that you couldn't do if you traded for Stafford which would make you overall a better team.   

Some important highlights from his rookie season: 

• 75.3% Catchable Pass % (1st among rookies)
• Passer Rating 91.2 (1st among rookies)
• 5.9 Sack % (1st among rookies)
• 3 Game Winning Drives (1st among rookies)
• 129 Passer rating on passes of over 20 yards (1st in the league)
• 0 INT on passes of over 20 yards
• His ability to keep plays alive in the pocket gives his poor receivers time to get open 
• 135 Passer Rating on play action ( and Jags were stupidly lowest PA rate in the league)
• 76.9% Completion % on play action
• 0 INT on play action

 

Draft a developmental QB this year in the 3rd round.. trade a 4th for Minshew.. and you've got dramatically more assets than trading 2-4 picks for Stafford. 2 years of Minshew at 0 money compared to 20-30 million of Stafford makes sense to me.. because you won't win anything with Stafford. You build your team then you can trade for an older QB to win now ( ala Tampa) or trade away an entire draft to jump up for a QB you want (ala KC) if Minshew can't get the job done.

 

Damn Crimm is your going to use bad QBs winning SB. How could you leave out Trent Dilfer ! 😁

Seriously , I would rather go with Mini over Stafford. The age bothers me plus the capital you have to give up. Mini is young and he would fit out system. He also come at a lower cost.  Stafford would be 35/36 yrs old before we are close to a SB which will be hard to do without draft picks given up in the trade. MS is 33 year old on Feb 7.

Hard pass

 

[Crimmage]

8 minutes ago, m haynes said:

Damn Crimm is your going to use bad QBs winning SB. How could you leave out Trent Dilfer ! 😁

Wasn't Dilfer the 1999 season? He fell jussssst outside the 20 year window... but he does fit into the "Elite Defense carries QB" category

 

And yes, exactly.. Stafford would be absolutely minimum of 35 before they have a chance at a Super Bowl.. and quite frankly that is being nice.. going from this roster to a Super Bowl in 2 years is optimistic to say the least. 

[Hunter2_1]

11 hours ago, LaFellSBXLIXMVP said:

Everyone on board posts: HELL YeaH! Those against remain silent.

 

t

Not for me

 

Stafford will have good games and will improve the passing offense for sure, but he hasn't a clutch bone in his body. He's probably won a few late games against bad teams, but skippy posted his record of games where he needed to come from behind against better teams - NOTHING. He's useless at it. 

So maybe a short term fix, but he would want long term franch QB money. So...

I'm out.

[Hunter2_1]

10 hours ago, Crimmage said:

 

 

Draft a developmental QB this year in the 3rd round.. trade a 4th for Minshew.. and you've got dramatically more assets than trading 2-4 picks for Stafford. 2 years of Minshew at 0 money compared to 20-30 million of Stafford makes sense to me.. because you won't win anything with Stafford. You build your team then you can trade for an older QB to win now ( ala Tampa) or trade away an entire draft to jump up for a QB you want (ala KC) if Minshew can't get the job done.

 

I'd rather Minshew than Stafford, and your hypothesis of just needing a great defense and a QB who doesn't lose you games is a good one. I do agree, even though I think it's a harder route to win the SB compared to having an elite QB. But an elite QB here isn't happening anytime soon.

 

Problem for me is - where is our elite defense then? We don't have one now. In most metrics we were mid table. Run defense was god awful and we need a couple FAs and drafts just to sort that out. 

[m haynes]

56 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Not for me

 

Stafford will have good games and will improve the passing offense for sure, but he hasn't a clutch bone in his body. He's probably won a few late games against bad teams, but skippy posted his record of games where he needed to come from behind against better teams - NOTHING. He's useless at it. 

So maybe a short term fix, but he would want long term franch QB money. So...

I'm out.

I feel the same. Not sure how to put into word but the " it factor " bothers me.

[m haynes]

57 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Run defense was god awful

Your right this is the major key to success. IMO we need 3 players on defense to be elite. Two fatties and a I LB. I'm not counting on Hightower. He's been out a year, injury problems, age, salary and I have a question on his desire.  Just to be sure,  I'm not saying he's a dog, far from it, however at his age and success and having spend a year relaxing it has to be pretty hard to get back in the swing of things and make the commitment. He looking at retirement and the Pats are not going any where in the next year or two. Lets call it human nature.

The Pats can than go after the QB. if this off season they hit on the three players. Than give up major draft capital to get a QB. The one major problem this (early RDs) draft is weak in those two areas. You will need to hit on the fatties in the lower rounds.  There is only one guy that meets our needs however you have to pick him at 15 or he will be long gone before our 2nd RD pick. Christian Barmore who reminds me of Ty Warren.

[m haynes]

He's a thought going around in my crazy head, if BB trades for Stafford. Does he care about the Pats future or is more about him and total wins.

My reason, making the trade will increase our chances of winning games short term however the cost of draft capital will dramatically diminish success (SB) for the future.

BB need 55 wins to pass Shula and you have to take into account his age. BB drafts a young QB it will take longer to reach his goal. Also if he misses on the young QB it's even longer to reach total wins.

Just a crazy thought.

Edited January 24, 2021 by m haynes

[Crimmage]

1 hour ago, m haynes said:

Your right this is the major key to success. IMO we need 3 players on defense to be elite. Two fatties and a I LB.

I agree, except I would add corner because I think it is a certainty that Gilmore is traded for a 3rd to someone this offseason. 
 

• Two DL  ( You're assuming they resign Guy, right?, I like Cowart and think they could probably find run stoppers in the 3rd-5th rounds)
• 1 Strong ILB ( Assuming Hightower back for 1 year, Uche/Win are great pass rushers and the rest depth guys. This likely needs to be free agency because I don't see many great ILB this draft )
• 1 top 2 corner ( Gilmore gone, Williams average, Jones great slot, JC top 2 corner)

 

The nice thing is with the cap going down.. you could likely get 2-3 of those players easily in free agency.. then fill the other in the top 3 rounds of the draft. Finding some run stoppers in free agency may be possible. You could turn around this defense pretty quickly but I think either way it will be at minimum a 2 year process to become "elite".

 

To be long term elite you also need a safety but you are stacked this year so they may not draft one until next season. Chung / McCourty are going to be on their last legs but they provide leadership that I'm sure BB will want on a young defense.

 

 

[Crimmage]

1 hour ago, m haynes said:

He's a thought going around in my crazy head, if BB trades for Stafford. Does he care about the Pats future or is more about him and total wins.

Not crazy at all, I've thought the same thing... but I believe he wants both, and he can do both. This is also why I believe BB won't reach for a QB in the first round and will look for an immediate impact player there or trade back. 

I think he is much more likely to trade for a cheaper QB with a few years of experience or sign a free agent then build around them. (Cheap QB = more money to spend on defense)

• Trubisky is a possibility given his age and BB probably thinking they can "fix" him
• Trade for Mariotta possible because Josh loved him coming out of college 
• Winston is another player who they may believe they can "fix" 
• Minshew cheap with two years of control 

I believe he wants to win on defense so he can take all the credit like he Rams Super Bowl.. he doesn't need or want an "Elite" QB because he doesn't want to spend that kind of money. If Alex Smith were 28-30 I think he would be the EXACT QB BB would want to go after. Someone who doesn't turn the ball over, can make some plays and let his defense control the game. 

 

[Deadpulse]

This Minshew over Stafford trend is ridiculous. Stafford is by and far the better player. Dude has been mired in bad coaching every year of his career and still comes out with strong numbers and even some playoff berths.

 

Minshew is Fitzpatrick with Favre syndrome AT BEST. 

[Crimmage]

I don't' think anyone is making the point that Minshew is better than Stafford, if everything is equal of course Stafford is better. Both Stafford and Minshew have been plagued by awful organizations which would never let them reach their full potential.. Stafford though has had some great weapons to throw to at least. The thought process is taking into account the Patriots current situation.

 

The real factors for Stafford are: 

• Stafford age.. he will be 33 to start the season.. how old does he plan to play? Does he fit into a championship window for this team given all the holes? 
• Stafford money.. BB didn't want to pay Brady 25 million.. he's going to do it for Stafford?  
• The trade cost.. how many picks are we looking at? If it's just 15 then I would agree on that
• Does Stafford fit into the offensive philosophy BB has transitioned to since the Rams super bowl? run the ball, game manager, etc.? Or do you think having Stafford means going back to the days of slinging the football all over the field? If that's the case you'd need money to sign 2-3 good receivers so he can do so.
• Building the rest of the team .. Spending 20+ million on a QB this year only hurts the free agent money to put an offense / defense around him .. build through the draft? If you trade a 1st, 2nd and 3rd or something like that you've got no opportunity to fill the holes on the team with talent.. he currently has 0 offense to put around him.. it would be 2019 all over again (with a worse defense)

 

Stafford would be better off on the 49ers / Broncos / Colts / Saints.. any of those three teams and he could go deep in the playoffs for the rest of his career. On the Patriots maybe they are a wild card team next season? .. it depend smore on the weapons you have around him. 

 

Minshew being Fitzpatrick with Favre syndrome: 

• What makes Fitz a bad QB? Remember Fitzmagic in Tampa? What makes Fitz .. Fitz is the fact that for all the spectacular plays he makes.. he will have a game with 2-4 INT to make up for it and make him forever a mid tier starter / high end backup .. Minshew doesn't throw picks.. so if you feel Minshew is Fitz without the picks.. I'll take that 100/100 because you can win long term with that level of play ( don't make him carry the team.. you need a well rounded team). 
• Favre was fun for his gunslinger mentality.. I can see how you would make that comparison with Minshew because he can keep plays alive in the pocket around a bad OL.. but the difference once again is Minshew doesn't throw picks out of that situation .. being able to keep a play alive when your OL is falling apart is what makes players like Rothlisberger and Wilson so great, why would we use that against him? 
• Favre averaged 15-16 INT a year throughout his career .. Fitz almost 11 a year only being a full time player about 1/3 of his career. Stafford averages about 11-12 Int a year ( By comparison brady is 9)
• Minshew started 14 games as a rookie and threw 6 Int  .. 9 this past season and threw 5 .. neither season would he be projected to throw over 10 .. which is why I feel the comparison to Fitz / Favre are way off ... he's also done this with pretty bad offensive talent around him, put weapons around him and his stats could even get better ( not even taking into account an actual competent coaching staff around him)
• Minshew fits what BB has transitioned the offense into at a cheaper cost .. a running team which makes big plays off of play action 

[Deadpulse]

2 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

Stafford age.. he will be 33 to start the season.. how old does he plan to play? Does he fit into a championship window for this team given all the holes? 

He's in his prime. Most teams dont get 20 years of solidity at QB, let alone with the GOAT. This team doesn't have as many holes at people make it seem. If Stafford is on this team last season, we would have been in the playoff hunt till the end. 

3 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

Stafford money.. BB didn't want to pay Brady 25 million.. he's going to do it for Stafford?  

Most reports have him restructuring on a trade. 3 year deal prorated with bonuses etc. Most cap specialists show his cap hit for 2021 being around 5-8 mil upon a restructure/extension. 

4 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

The trade cost.. how many picks are we looking at? If it's just 15 then I would agree on that

This is the ONLY reason I wouldn't want Stafford. However, I don't think we have to sell out the draft to get him unless the market is straight fire. Even if it is, we have some GREAT assets. Gilmore probably as one more year at most in NE and is still at least top 5 CB in the NFL. Sony Michel showed out late making himself a decent throw in. N'Keal Harry could be valued as a reclamation project. There are oodles of possible returns that I would be satisfied with. 

7 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

Does Stafford fit into the offensive philosophy BB has transitioned to since the Rams super bowl? run the ball, game manager, etc.? Or do you think having Stafford means going back to the days of slinging the football all over the field? If that's the case you'd need money to sign 2-3 good receivers so he can do so

If 2020 showed us anything, its that the Patriots offensive philosophy is a misnomer. Their offensive philosophy is based on the personnel and the opponent. Of Staffords 165 starts in the NFL, only 11 of them saw a rusher go over 100 yards... ELEVEN. Damien Harris and a strong run game will give Stafford something he has never had before. Brother put the Lions on his back his entire career. NE is the perfect place for that to not happen anymore. 

9 minutes ago, Crimmage said:

Building the rest of the team .. Spending 20+ million on a QB this year only hurts the free agent money to put an offense / defense around him .. build through the draft? If you trade a 1st, 2nd and 3rd or something like that you've got no opportunity to fill the holes on the team with talent.. he currently has 0 offense to put around him.. it would be 2019 all over again (with a worse defense)

See restructure/extension. The Patriots have oodles of cash, filling the other holes, which I do still maintain is overstated, will not be an issue with or without Matty.

 

regarding Minshew... I said AT BEST. Which means Fitz is his literal ceiling. 

[Hunter2_1]

2 hours ago, m haynes said:

 

BB need 55 wins to pass Shula and you have to take into account his age. BB drafts a young QB it will take longer to reach his goal. Also if he misses on the young QB it's even longer to reach total wins.

Just a crazy thought.

Oof that's still a long way off...he needs 5 or 6 winning seasons. 

[m haynes]

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

I would add corner because I think it is a certainty that Gilmore is traded

I thought CB however I left CB off the list, until Gilmore situation plays out. But if he goes its IMO a major need.

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

You're assuming they resign Guy, right?

I thought that would be a given.  There nuts if they don't retain him.

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

To be long term elite you also need a safety but you are stacked this year so they may not draft one until next season. Chung / McCourty are going to be on their last legs but they provide leadership that I'm sure BB will want on a young defense.

My thoughts are different. We need to get younger now. IMO Chung should be cut, he offers nothing for the future. I'm not paying anyone for leadership. I mentioned earlier the draft is stacked with safeties. I have no problem taking one early, if he's best player available . Like you said its going to take 2 years at least.  We can't get everything this year and I don't want to force it, fitting a position of need. EX DL and LB.  I believe in the "Cisco Kid" 😁

[m haynes]

2 hours ago, Crimmage said:

I don't' think anyone is making the point that Minshew is better than Stafford, if everything is equal of course Stafford is better. Both Stafford and Minshew have been plagued by awful organizations which would never let them reach their full potential.. Stafford though has had some great weapons to throw to at least. The thought process is taking into account the Patriots current situation.

 

The real factors for Stafford are: 

• Stafford age.. he will be 33 to start the season.. how old does he plan to play? Does he fit into a championship window for this team given all the holes? 
• Stafford money.. BB didn't want to pay Brady 25 million.. he's going to do it for Stafford?  
• The trade cost.. how many picks are we looking at? If it's just 15 then I would agree on that
• Does Stafford fit into the offensive philosophy BB has transitioned to since the Rams super bowl? run the ball, game manager, etc.? Or do you think having Stafford means going back to the days of slinging the football all over the field? If that's the case you'd need money to sign 2-3 good receivers so he can do so.
• Building the rest of the team .. Spending 20+ million on a QB this year only hurts the free agent money to put an offense / defense around him .. build through the draft? If you trade a 1st, 2nd and 3rd or something like that you've got no opportunity to fill the holes on the team with talent.. he currently has 0 offense to put around him.. it would be 2019 all over again (with a worse defense)

 

Stafford would be better off on the 49ers / Broncos / Colts / Saints.. any of those three teams and he could go deep in the playoffs for the rest of his career. On the Patriots maybe they are a wild card team next season? .. it depend smore on the weapons you have around him. 

 

Minshew being Fitzpatrick with Favre syndrome: 

• What makes Fitz a bad QB? Remember Fitzmagic in Tampa? What makes Fitz .. Fitz is the fact that for all the spectacular plays he makes.. he will have a game with 2-4 INT to make up for it and make him forever a mid tier starter / high end backup .. Minshew doesn't throw picks.. so if you feel Minshew is Fitz without the picks.. I'll take that 100/100 because you can win long term with that level of play ( don't make him carry the team.. you need a well rounded team). 
• Favre was fun for his gunslinger mentality.. I can see how you would make that comparison with Minshew because he can keep plays alive in the pocket around a bad OL.. but the difference once again is Minshew doesn't throw picks out of that situation .. being able to keep a play alive when your OL is falling apart is what makes players like Rothlisberger and Wilson so great, why would we use that against him? 
• Favre averaged 15-16 INT a year throughout his career .. Fitz almost 11 a year only being a full time player about 1/3 of his career. Stafford averages about 11-12 Int a year ( By comparison brady is 9)
• Minshew started 14 games as a rookie and threw 6 Int  .. 9 this past season and threw 5 .. neither season would he be projected to throw over 10 .. which is why I feel the comparison to Fitz / Favre are way off ... he's also done this with pretty bad offensive talent around him, put weapons around him and his stats could even get better ( not even taking into account an actual competent coaching staff around him)
• Minshew fits what BB has transitioned the offense into at a cheaper cost .. a running team which makes big plays off of play action 

Boy you saved me a lot of typing and edits!!

You hit