Wish upon a 'Star'

[R T]

5 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

Star is just Saban/Belichick terminology for the nickle back.  It gets talked about like it's different, but that's more or less how everyone plays the nickle.  Your nickle guy is inside, closer to the ball, which means he's going to take on more LB style roles just based on alignment, pending the play call.  It's why defensive play-calling isn't as simple as just calling Cover-2 man or whatever and taking a nap; the same play call rolls out completely differently in base vs nickle vs dime vs etc. multiplied by the vast array of offensive formations out there.  If you have a 190 lb CB who's supposed to spill the RB to the alley, you better be sure he's up for that level of physicality.  And of course that's not even addressing that your nickle plays vastly different coverage roles depending on man vs zone coverage; in a cover-2 look he's playing the seam, in cover-3 he's playing hook/flat, in man he's either got the slot receiver or the TE and even just that is a real big apples to oranges in coverage.  

The thing is, Jaire is faaaaaar and away the best guy on the team for Star.  He'll ragdoll blockers in the run game, he can play any kind of coverage and he's an aggressive blitzer.  He's also far and away the best outside CB on the team, which means that's where he's going.  I'd honestly pound the table with this group to give Jaire a shot inside and run Jackson/King outside (or Hollman/Ento/whoever jumps at boundary CB), but in today's NFL there's a negative chance of that happening.  So with Jaire off the table, #2 is probably Savage, for basically all of the same reasons.  He doesn't have Jaire's strength or disregard for human life, but he's aggressive and unafraid of contact, and he can play any kind of coverage as well.  Plus he's just so damn fast he can erase a lot of mistakes.  

Unfortunately, he's probably off the table for the same reason Jaire is: if you've got a safety you can play at robber who shines like Savage who can also rotate anywhere else for misdirection, you probably aren't leaving him to ground up at the nickle.  I actually do like Sullivan there, there's far worse fits, but I think teams have started to lock in on the areas he struggles and he'll be an increasing liability if you're playing him 75% of snaps.  He's physical with blockers and willing to throw his body around, plus he's quick as a cat, but the lack of size and speed both means he has a lot of bad match-ups in the slot.  If they let the CBs actually press unlike Pettine, he may still be able to hang more often, but you're looking to upgrade him if at all possible.

My surprise, "probably a stupid idea but whatever" pick for the spot is actually Josh Jackson.  His physicality has come a long way thanks to all his time as a punt gunner, and he's by far at his best facing the QB.  Think you could do some fun stuff with a King/Jackson/Alexander line up from D-left to D-right, especially in a C2 system (which I think Barry likes to run?) - Jackson dropping to cover seam/hook is pretty much your best chance at getting those Iowa ball skills to finally show up in the pros.

Great stuff Bob. One question, is it possible that Sullivan's game is still evolving and we could see a much more advanced player this year or do you think he is probably maxed out and is what he is moving forward? 

[MrBobGray]

15 minutes ago, R T said:

Great stuff Bob. One question, is it possible that Sullivan's game is still evolving and we could see a much more advanced player this year or do you think he is probably maxed out and is what he is moving forward? 

Think you've kinda got what you've got with Sullivan at this point, but that's not necessarily a criticism.  His biggest problem is being 5'11", 195 and running a 4.5 with a 4.3 shuttle.  You can be small and you can be slow, but being small and slow is real hard to overcome.  He's physical and not afraid of his man, and he has some bounce to him, but he's just so susceptible to crossers/flat routes if you don't let him press that you're basically betting 100% that Z and company will get home before his man clears the wash.  If you do let him press, he absolutely cannot miss or there's a guy fully loose in the coverage because Sullivan just doesn't have the wheels to catch him and he doesn't have the length to hide him.  

Now, that being said, I think you could have fun playing Sullivan at Star if you're playing majority C2, because he's damn good in the run game playing in the box.  He has a great feel for the crackback and has slipped a number of them to make the tackle.  Play him back corner of the box so he's closer to his assignment and let him come down in the run game, eyes to the QB, and I think you have a player.  He's got the eyes/arm length/hops to take away the seam if he's got his eyes to the QB, I just don't want him in a trail position there.  His pick of Dak back in 2019 was pretty much exactly that; let him float in the middle, drift toward the hook/flat and jump the seam if the QB doesn't see him.  If you're asking him to do that most of the time, with the occasional man call as a change up, I think he's probably got some sneaky high value.  

But I'd still rather see Jaire.  Man would be absolute bowling ball inside.

[CWood21]

1 hour ago, R T said:

Great stuff Bob. One question, is it possible that Sullivan's game is still evolving and we could see a much more advanced player this year or do you think he is probably maxed out and is what he is moving forward? 

Probably not.  As @MrBobGray mentioned, what you see is what you're going to get out of him.

[vegas492]

14 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

 

My surprise, "probably a stupid idea but whatever" pick for the spot is actually Josh Jackson.  His physicality has come a long way thanks to all his time as a punt gunner, and he's by far at his best facing the QB.  

Man, you had me with everything you typed, until this.  Punt gunner.  He was so poor that they deactivated him for the important games.  If he was truly "physical" that would not have happened.

I still have hope for him, but right now he's fighting for an end of the roster spot with the club, before the draft even happens.  He isn't on thin ice, he's on skim ice.

[R T]

40 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Man, you had me with everything you typed, until this.  Punt gunner.  He was so poor that they deactivated him for the important games.  If he was truly "physical" that would not have happened.

I still have hope for him, but right now he's fighting for an end of the roster spot with the club, before the draft even happens.  He isn't on thin ice, he's on skim ice.

I may be completely wrong, but I don't believe the Packers are as down on Jackson as some in the fanbase. Sucking at ST's doesn't mean he can't play defense, they are two different things. Bush was a great ST player, but nobody wanted to count on him playing CB. Janis was a great gunner, but that doesn't mean they want him starting at WR ahead of Adams because Adams sucks as a gunner. Yes Jackson was in-active at the end of the season when King was healthy because others were better ST players, yet when King was out it was Jackson who started 5 games and not someone else who excelled on ST's. But I could be completely wrong.  

[vegas492]

32 minutes ago, R T said:

I may be completely wrong, but I don't believe the Packers are as down on Jackson as some in the fanbase. Sucking at ST's doesn't mean he can't play defense, they are two different things. Bush was a great ST player, but nobody wanted to count on him playing CB. Janis was a great gunner, but that doesn't mean they want him starting at WR ahead of Adams because Adams sucks as a gunner. Yes Jackson was in-active at the end of the season when King was healthy because others were better ST players, yet when King was out it was Jackson who started 5 games and not someone else who excelled on ST's. But I could be completely wrong.  

I think you just need to look at who was active for the playoff games to gauge how the Packers feel about the players.  

But, that's just me reading the tea leaves.  

[craig]

Thanks, Bob.  That was really helpful.  Couple of dumb amateur thoughts.  Earlier in his career, year two, Jackson was envisioned for an inside role, I recall quotes to that effect.  Obviously Tramon, Sullivan, and Redmond all passed him for that.  Last year Gray said he wanted Jackson to just focus on one role and get good at one thing.  It's possible they might think he learned enough at boundary that they'd now revisit using him some inside?  Beats me.

Second, we talk about physical components at star, but it seems to me that smarts are essential.  Nuances, angles, variations, recognition playing inside, and as Bob noted many different variants depending on what other guys are asked to do.  All the really good nickles are smart, instinctive, and confident too.  That's where Jaire would again be such a great fit; and Savage is said to have some of those qualities too.  Jackson maybe doesn't process as quickly?  

Rodgers talks about reading/recognized defenses pre-snap.   Obviously Jaire took his boundary and QB's usually didn't even try to go there, they looked to more vulnerable areas.  Not sure how much guys flip around during the count and switch roles.  But Barry talked some about having different guys do different things so that opponents wouldn't be able to know who's covering what.  So I'm wondering whether they'll be looking to mix it up more?  Rather than having a star, singular, perhaps they'll have personnel groups in which guys switch roles?  One snap Jaire is boundary and Jackson inside; the next Jaire slides inside and Jackson covers boundary?  One snap Savage is functionally star; the next he and Sullivan exchange function; and the next maybe Sullivan swings to boundary with Jaire sliding inside?  Too much switching can cause confusion, errors, and players not playing to their strengths, so keeping it simple and consistent and just executing well may be the best.  But it's not impossible that the defense might increase mixing guys up variably more often, in hopes of creating more uncertainty for QB's?  But without necessarily having a single individual "star" who is always star and nothing but star?  

[{Family Ghost}]

So, who in the draft is most ideal 'Star"?  Do we want the smaller fiesty type corner like Samuel Jr. or Molden, or someone a little more stout like Ifeatu Melefonwu.  When I think of the "Star" I think of Charles Woodson.  Woodson played a lot bigger than his size and still had the speed to cover.  A bigger guy like Melefonwu would seem to be able to offer more in regards to blitzing and knifing into the backfield to stuff run plays, plus he has 4.48 speed in the 40.  

[cannondale]

2 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

So, who in the draft is most ideal 'Star"?  Do we want the smaller fiesty type corner like Samuel Jr. or Molden, or someone a little more stout like Ifeatu Melefonwu.  When I think of the "Star" I think of Charles Woodson.  Woodson played a lot bigger than his size and still had the speed to cover.  A bigger guy like Melefonwu would seem to be able to offer more in regards to blitzing and knifing into the backfield to stuff run plays, plus he has 4.48 speed in the 40.  

I think I've come to the conclusion that there is no "type" anymore. Teams are going to attack your weakness.

[Joe]

3 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

So, who in the draft is most ideal 'Star"?  Do we want the smaller fiesty type corner like Samuel Jr. or Molden, or someone a little more stout like Ifeatu Melefonwu.  When I think of the "Star" I think of Charles Woodson.  Woodson played a lot bigger than his size and still had the speed to cover.  A bigger guy like Melefonwu would seem to be able to offer more in regards to blitzing and knifing into the backfield to stuff run plays, plus he has 4.48 speed in the 40.  

We said the same stuff about his older brother. How'd that work out?

[MrBobGray]

On 4/27/2021 at 8:13 AM, vegas492 said:

I think you just need to look at who was active for the playoff games to gauge how the Packers feel about the players.  

But, that's just me reading the tea leaves.  

So you're not wrong here, I do think the team is down on Jackson as a whole, but it's hard to know how exactly to read that.  He was a core ST guy on a few units (plays roughly 50% of ST snaps) until he had to step in on defense weeks 5-9, then in week 10 immediately returned to playing 50% of ST snaps.  Unfortunately he had a concussion that week, and missed Chicago/Philly.  Then things get weird.  He came back against Detroit and played 50% of ST snaps again, then was inactive, then 50% of ST snaps against the Titans, then was inactive the next three games, which includes both playoff games.  There was no one to one replacement either, as the Packers bounced a number of guys around over those three games.  More than anything I would say they felt they could do better on ST, and were unlikely to need CB help against either team - Kadar Hollman was inactive for both as well after playing ~50% of ST snaps the last three weeks of the season.  Of course, them elevating KeiVarae Russell from the PS for both playoff games isn't the best look; but he was on the practice squad all year and they only elevated him for those two and Jacksonville.

So I guess my point is that it's kind of impossible to get a sense of what the Packers felt about their ST units and the guys playing gunner.  They seemed to often switch them in and out without any real obvious impetus, probably desperately hoping that some player out there could make up for what the ST Coordinator lacked.  It's not a good look for Josh, but it's hard to say what kind of look it really is I guess?

EDIT: Also in my defense, I said it was probably a stupid idea.  I'm like 98% sure Josh doesn't even make the 53 man roster, but some tiny part of me holds out hope.  I don't think Pettine's defense was a great fit for what he does well, but frankly it could just be he's not capable of doing what he does well at an NFL level.

Edited April 28, 2021 by MrBobGray

[MrBobGray]

On 4/27/2021 at 8:37 AM, craig said:

Thanks, Bob.  That was really helpful.  Couple of dumb amateur thoughts.  Earlier in his career, year two, Jackson was envisioned for an inside role, I recall quotes to that effect.  Obviously Tramon, Sullivan, and Redmond all passed him for that.  Last year Gray said he wanted Jackson to just focus on one role and get good at one thing.  It's possible they might think he learned enough at boundary that they'd now revisit using him some inside?  Beats me.

Second, we talk about physical components at star, but it seems to me that smarts are essential.  Nuances, angles, variations, recognition playing inside, and as Bob noted many different variants depending on what other guys are asked to do.  All the really good nickles are smart, instinctive, and confident too.  That's where Jaire would again be such a great fit; and Savage is said to have some of those qualities too.  Jackson maybe doesn't process as quickly?  

Rodgers talks about reading/recognized defenses pre-snap.   Obviously Jaire took his boundary and QB's usually didn't even try to go there, they looked to more vulnerable areas.  Not sure how much guys flip around during the count and switch roles.  But Barry talked some about having different guys do different things so that opponents wouldn't be able to know who's covering what.  So I'm wondering whether they'll be looking to mix it up more?  Rather than having a star, singular, perhaps they'll have personnel groups in which guys switch roles?  One snap Jaire is boundary and Jackson inside; the next Jaire slides inside and Jackson covers boundary?  One snap Savage is functionally star; the next he and Sullivan exchange function; and the next maybe Sullivan swings to boundary with Jaire sliding inside?  Too much switching can cause confusion, errors, and players not playing to their strengths, so keeping it simple and consistent and just executing well may be the best.  But it's not impossible that the defense might increase mixing guys up variably more often, in hopes of creating more uncertainty for QB's?  But without necessarily having a single individual "star" who is always star and nothing but star?  

I wish I knew more about what kind of defense Barry historically had run, because a lot of this is determined by the kind of shell/blitz package you want to run.  One of the reasons Woodson was such a monster inside was that he could do literally anything; walking him into the box gave nothing away to the offense and he could blow up run and pass plays from there.  Unfortunately, Hall of Fame DBs are hard to come by, so you pick your poison to an extent.  In general, I'd say the biggest determining factor of your Star is how much nickel you want to run and the offense formations you want to run it against.  If you're playing nickel against 12 personnel, your Star is either over a TE in the slot or in the box and basically playing LB.  Part of what makes the 900 TEs of Bartholomew Shanahan so effective in today's NFL is most teams have prioritized coverage in their DBs to such a point that they don't have any they can put inside in the run game, so you can force some pretty dumb defensive packages with a few extra TEs on the field.  You exacerbate that with all the tight splits and motion, now your CB needs to be able to read fake jet sweep action and do it in a hurry because he's supposed to be outside the TE and false steps mean the entire LB crew is getting sealed by a good block.  So you throw in another LB to stop them and this time they split the TE out past the numbers and put their WR1 in the slot, and now they know if it's man/zone and they have a ready made weakness to target.  Etc, etc.

From what I can tell Barry has traditionally run more C2 shell, and he likes to run a light box.  So it's easy to see why the Star position is more of a premium with him; you need a guy who can consistently play aggressive in the run game without a lot of LB/S help and be able to drop quickly and effectively to play the seam/hook in the passing game if it's not man.  Realistically, looking at what he wants and the team as it is, I'd expect Sullivan to get the first crack at it, with Vernon Scott as my dark horse.  Besides Josh Jackson, obvi.  They may draft a guy but unless they really hit on the pick I wouldn't want a rookie playing such a complicated and pivotal role.

 

[R T]

7 minutes ago, MrBobGray said:

I wish I knew more about what kind of defense Barry historically had run, because a lot of this is determined by the kind of shell/blitz package you want to run.  One of the reasons Woodson was such a monster inside was that he could do literally anything; walking him into the box gave nothing away to the offense and he could blow up run and pass plays from there.  Unfortunately, Hall of Fame DBs are hard to come by, so you pick your poison to an extent.  In general, I'd say the biggest determining factor of your Star is how much nickel you want to run and the offense formations you want to run it against.  If you're playing nickel against 12 personnel, your Star is either over a TE in the slot or in the box and basically playing LB.  Part of what makes the 900 TEs of Bartholomew Shanahan so effective in today's NFL is most teams have prioritized coverage in their DBs to such a point that they don't have any they can put inside in the run game, so you can force some pretty dumb defensive packages with a few extra TEs on the field.  You exacerbate that with all the tight splits and motion, now your CB needs to be able to read fake jet sweep action and do it in a hurry because he's supposed to be outside the TE and false steps mean the entire LB crew is getting sealed by a good block.  So you throw in another LB to stop them and this time they split the TE out past the numbers and put their WR1 in the slot, and now they know if it's man/zone and they have a ready made weakness to target.  Etc, etc.

From what I can tell Barry has traditionally run more C2 shell, and he likes to run a light box.  So it's easy to see why the Star position is more of a premium with him; you need a guy who can consistently play aggressive in the run game without a lot of LB/S help and be able to drop quickly and effectively to play the seam/hook in the passing game if it's not man.  Realistically, looking at what he wants and the team as it is, I'd expect Sullivan to get the first crack at it, with Vernon Scott as my dark horse.  Besides Josh Jackson, obvi.  They may draft a guy but unless they really hit on the pick I wouldn't want a rookie playing such a complicated and pivotal role.

 

I don't know how much work you have done with players in the draft, but if you have, I have an outside the box thought on this. Could the LB from Notre Dame Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah be the kryptonite to a Shanahan offense?

[cannondale]

35 minutes ago, R T said:

I don't know how much work you have done with players in the draft, but if you have, I have an outside the box thought on this. Could the LB from Notre Dame Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah be the kryptonite to a Shanahan offense?

I know where you're going, but IMO just too many moving parts to make that work. The first of which is keeping him clean, which is never gonna happen with the current DL. With the uncertainty with King, I think I'm just down with getting the best cover CB you can and let Barry sort it out. K.I.S.S.

Edited April 28, 2021 by cannondale

[R T]

9 minutes ago, cannondale said:

I know where you're going, but IMO just too many moving parts to make that work. The first of which is keeping him clean, which is never gonna happen with the current DL. With the uncertainty with King, I think I'm just down with getting the best cover CB you can and let Barry sort it out. K.I.S.S.

Judging by your rebuttal it would appear you do not know where I am going with this.