2022 NFL Draft Thread

[TheEagle]

2 hours ago, vegas492 said:

Skyy seems like a steal at that point of the draft.  Best release in the class and he makes guys miss.

I'll take him at that pick with zero issue.

And I know squat about Lucas except that he's a tackle, so o-line depth should be there.

I like Lucas. I feel like he could be a surprise pick for us. He might be RT only, but his feet/pass sets are beautiful. Decent blocking on the move. Power at the point is decent, but his anchor is not good.

[thrILL!]

3 hours ago, Brat&Beer said:

I know some people who live in Crystal Lake.

[thrILL!]

3 hours ago, vegas492 said:

GB took Karlaftis at #21.  EDGE.

Olave at #22.  WR.

Do edge rushers make more than WRs?  I'd imagine in this scenario whichever position commands more in a potential 2nd contract would get picked at 22.  So would Olave go at #21?  Or does it not even matter?

Or I'm just completely oversaturated with draft content lol.

[Green19]

53 minutes ago, thrILL! said:

Do edge rushers make more than WRs?  I'd imagine in this scenario whichever position commands more in a potential 2nd contract would get picked at 22.  So would Olave go at #21?  Or does it not even matter?

Or I'm just completely oversaturated with draft content lol.

I mean have you seen the WR market? They are making a ton…

[R T]

We shall call this the @Outpost31 'Destined for Greatness' Mock Draft. 

1-22 Edge Cameron Thomas, San Diego State

1-28 LB Devin Lloyd, Utah

2-53 OT Abraham Lucas, Washington State

2-59 DL Zachary Carter, Florida 

3-92 WR Justyn Ross, Clemson 

4-132 OT Zack Tom, Wake Forest

4-140 RB Ty Chandler, North Carolina

5-171 WR Kevin Austin, Notre Dame

7-228 TE James Mitchell, Virginia Tech

7-249 CB Isaac Taylor-Stuart, USC

7-258 QB E.J. Perry, Brown

[packfanfb]

23 minutes ago, R T said:

We shall call this the @Outpost31 'Destined for Greatness' Mock Draft. 

1-22 Edge Cameron Thomas, San Diego State

1-28 LB Devin Lloyd, Utah

2-53 OT Abraham Lucas, Washington State

2-59 DL Zachary Carter, Florida 

3-92 WR Justyn Ross, Clemson 

4-132 OT Zack Tom, Wake Forest

4-140 RB Ty Chandler, North Carolina

5-171 WR Kevin Austin, Notre Dame

7-228 TE James Mitchell, Virginia Tech

7-249 CB Isaac Taylor-Stuart, USC

7-258 QB E.J. Perry, Brown

Frankly, I could go for this as long as you sign a solid veteran WR after the draft and take Ross out and replace him with another WR (Ross has one of the worst athletic profiles for a WR I've ever seen). 

[packfanfb]

There's a damn ACL curse in Green Bay.

[thrILL!]

2 hours ago, Green19 said:

I mean have you seen the WR market? They are making a ton…

Oh for sure.  And hey- get yours WRs .  I was just thinking if you had back to back 1st rd picks, beyond the built-in pay scale structure, there is bound to be analytics about which player/position is selected first.   Or maybe it's just Harvey Dent.   

[ThatJerkDave]

Dave's WR mock draft test...

I took the rankings of WRs by their Prospect Grade on nfl.com, if you have beef with it, take it up with them.  https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/participants/wr/all-colleges/   I have bolded the WRs that are equal to, or larger than 6'1 or 200 lbs, to point to our more likely targets.  I ran simulations on PFF, TDN, and Fanspeak.  I took just the BPA, regardless of anything else on the simulators and ran 4 rounds.  (as an aside, you get good grades for taking their highest rated guys, I got an A- for a draft with 3 tackles, 2 off ball LBs, and 2 QBs)  I ran each of the 3 simulators 3 times to get my averages.  These boards do have different ratings, and sometimes there is quite a range in where a specific player was selected.  The top 14 were selected in every draft, as were Calvin Austin and David Bell.  There were several that were not selected in any draft, and they will be omitted.  

Format will be:  Rank. Name - Average (high/low).  I will put the players that meet the physical targets in bold, and the players faster than 4.45 (either combine or pro day measured) in green

1.  Garrett Wilson - 11.2 (2/22)

2.  Treylon Burks - 27.7 (21/38)

3.  Jameson Williams - 20.3 (15/26)

4.  Chris Olave - 20.8 (13/26)

5.  Drake London - 13.4 (10/16)

6.  Christian Watson - 55.7 (42/70)

7.  Jahan Dotson - 28.9 (23/36)

8.  Skyy Moore - 36.9 (29/48)

9.  George Pickens - 58.2 (41/76)

10.  Jalen Tolbert - 76.0 (63/99)

11.  John Metchie - 71.6 (61/83)

12.  Kalil Shakir - 107.9 (91/120)

13.  Wan'Dale Robinson - 97.2 (87/117)

14. Alec Pierce - 92.0 (72/133)

24.  Calvin Austin III - 98.1 (70/143)

25.  David Bell - 94.1 (63/121)

 

Edited April 9, 2022 by ThatJerkDave

[Sandy]

14 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

Dave's WR mock draft test...

I took the rankings of WRs by their Prospect Grade on nfl.com, if you have beef with it, take it up with them.  https://www.nfl.com/combine/tracker/participants/wr/all-colleges/   I have bolded the WRs that are equal to, or larger than 6'1 or 200 lbs, to point to our more likely targets.  I ran simulations on PFF, TDN, and Fanspeak.  I took just the BPA, regardless of anything else on the simulators and ran 4 rounds.  (as an aside, you get good grades for taking their highest rated guys, I got an A- for a draft with 3 tackles, 2 off ball LBs, and 2 QBs)  I ran each of the 3 simulators 3 times to get my averages.  These boards do have different ratings, and sometimes there is quite a range in where a specific player was selected.  The top 14 were selected in every draft, as were Calvin Austin and David Bell.  There were several that were not selected in any draft, and they will be omitted.  

Format will be:  Rank. Name - Average (high/low).  I will put the players that meet the physical targets in bold, and the players faster than 4.40 (either combine or pro day measured) in green

1.  Garrett Wilson - 11.2 (2/22)

2.  Treylon Burks - 27.7 (21/38)

3.  Jameson Williams - 20.3 (15/26)

4.  Chris Olave - 

edit -******* oops, hit post when I was trying to switch tabs...  brb...

Can't wait until you finish this lol

[ThatJerkDave]

14 minutes ago, Sandy said:

Can't wait until you finish this lol

right? LOL been typing away and using different tabs and stuff then I try to go back to my notes and hit submit.  hahaha!

[Sandy]

11 minutes ago, ThatJerkDave said:

right? LOL been typing away and using different tabs and stuff then I try to go back to my notes and hit submit.  hahaha!

Great research on this too, glad it's finally finished haha. I think this gives us a much better consensus than by using any individual sites rankings - these simulators take needs, trends, news etc into account.

Interesting how the tiers fell. Wilson and London are out of reach. Olave and Williams in play at 22. Burks and Dotson at 28.

[ThatJerkDave]

Part 2:  WRs that were in some drafts, but not all

22.  Velus Jones - 131.0 (122/140)  drafted 3 times, undrafted 6

23.  Bo Melton - 128 drafted once

28.  Justyn Ross - 84.3 (73/93) drafted 6 times

30.  Kyle Phillips - 104.5 (82/143) drafted 4 times

31.  Romeo Doubs - 101.0 (98/103) drafted 3 times

I suppose the low draft spots for these guys should be 143+ but again, different sites rank differently.  Interestingly, none of the players ranked 15-22 were drafted in the first 4 rounds of any simulator.  And the 24th and 25th were drafted 9/9 times, as was Justyn Ross.

 

 

If we put value in the rankings of the simulators, this kind of shows where we would be reaching, and where we really wouldn't be.  It looks to me like the Packers targets should be:  Christian Watson, Alec Pierce, and Velus Jones based on physicality.  I would also say add Jameson Williams into that bunch, knowing that he will be fast, when he is ready.  

 

It is unlikely that Wilson, Williams, London or Olave will be available to the Packers.  If we want Treylon Burks, it looks like we have to take him with 22 (which incidentally, is part of the reason I decided to check this out).  Personally, I think it would be a mistake to trade up in the first round for any of these guys.  I know he has had issues with drops, but I wouldn't mind a trade-up with one of our second round picks to secure Watson.  And it also looks like Pickens could be there for either of our second round picks.  Pierce rounds out right at 92, a pick the Packers hold.  And Velus Jones seems to fall right near the end of round 4 for where we pick.  

 

 

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, packfanfb said:

I'd be all about this. 

Karlaftis/Olave would be awesome, but they whiffed on the second round.

[ThatJerkDave]

13 minutes ago, Sandy said:

Great research on this too, glad it's finally finished haha. I think this gives us a much better consensus than by using any individual sites rankings - these simulators take needs, trends, news etc into account.

Interesting how the tiers fell. Wilson and London are out of reach. Olave and Williams in play at 22. Burks and Dotson at 28.

Every time when I was "trying" I would lose Burks to Tampa, Buffalo, or Tennessee right in front of us at 28.  Every time I ran one though, there was something too good in my eyes to pass up at 22, so I didn't take Burks.  

 

 

This next week I am going to be real busy.  Hopefully the week after I will have time to work on a "nightmare draft" where the board just falls how we don't want it to.  What can we expect from a worst case scenario?