2022 NFL Draft Thread

[craig]

I'm not totally sure I get the nuances of the size/speed.  How is height relevant?  Some obvious things:

1. Pure speed:  Comparing speed to other guys of similar height is relevant.  But height doesn't make a tall man faster than cornerbacks... unless he's just actually faster and actually does have more pure speed. 
2. Pure speed:  If a corner is trying to run with a receiver, his ability to keep up, or to catch up, is unaffected by whether the receiver is tall.  If the corner is 4.42 and the receiver is 4.52, the corner will be able to run with the receiver, or to catch up, whether the receiver is 6'4" or 5'11". 
3. Catch radius:  Longer receivers usually have longer levers, too.  There were throws that Jordy could reach that Cobb could not, and that a 6'0" corner could not.  Jordy's catch radius was a huge factor for him.  Huge factor.  
4. Cutting quickness:  Longer receivers often don't have as much stop-and-go, shake-and-bake suddenness.  It was perhaps easier for a defender to mirror MVS, EQ, and Jordy too, than to mirror Driver, Jennings, or young Cobb. 

[Leader]

2 minutes ago, craig said:

I'm not totally sure I get the nuances of the size/speed.  How is height relevant? 

Well, in short form....a fast tall guy makes a better target than a short fast guy.

When considering replacing the MVS role - the additional variable to consider is weight. Although he was 6'4" - he was relatively light - 206# - so running endless fly patterns (not exactly, but you get the idea...) was easier than it would be for a guy like Burks - who weighs in at 225#.

[Sandy]

41 minutes ago, Leader said:

Peter Bukowski -  Matt LaFleur said the team needs to add speed to take the top off the defense.

Among WRs who fit the Packers preferred athletic mold, guys who ran sub-4.4

Velus Jones 4.31
Danny Gray 4.33
Bo Melton 4.34
Christian Watson 4.36
Chris Olave 4.39
And Alec Pierce ran 4.41

Speed is more than 40 times too. Jordy Nelson was a 4.5s tester who became one of the best deep threats in the game. Why? He was 6’3 217.

He was an 88th percentile Speed Score player.

Treylon Burks ran a “slow” 4.55, but he’s 6’2 225. 87th percentile speed score. He’s fast.

I think Burks could absolutely be on the radar, but I think they'd still be looking for a true burner like the players listed above. I think if they use a first on Burks, it would be in addition to taking one of those other guys later, fills a different need in the offense.

[Leader]

Just now, Sandy said:

I think Burks could absolutely be on the radar, but I think they'd still be looking for a true burner like the players listed above. I think if they use a first on Burks, it would be in addition to taking one of those other guys later, fills a different need in the offense.

Olave & Burks.
Okay.....I'm done. Let me know who else gets drafted 

[craig]

33 minutes ago, Leader said:

Well, in short form....a fast tall guy makes a better target than a short fast guy.

Yes.  And often an open fast/sudden/quick guy makes a better target than a non-sudden tall guy.  

Best wishes to Gute and Sullivan etc. in scouting it all!

[Packerraymond]

People focus way to much on Combine 40 to determine speed. Scouts only use that to check the box. If a guy is getting hawked all the time on tape and then runs 4.39, there's skepticism there. If he never does (like Burks) and runs a 4.55, who cares? All that matters is if you're faster than the guys chasing you on the field, in full pads. Treylon Burks hit 22.6 mph, that's MVS fast. 

[DWhitehurst]

Unknown factors yet. Time will tell, but, even aside from whom they might get in free agency, I wonder if there will be a run on WRs prior to pick #22? I wouldn't automatically assume that, say, Chris Olave would still be on board at pick #22. London, Wilson, Olave, and Jamison could all be off the board. They might be left choosing between Burks, Pickens, Watson, etc., They might decide to trade up for one of those, or stay put at pick #22 and then have to decide whether to reach for one of them due to "need" factor, or stick with BPA factor (at a position of lesser need) and wait and see if any of them are still on the board at picks #28 or #52. I mean, I could see them going BPA and thus might take an OL or Edge player at pick #22.  No matter whom they get, I think we all agree that rookie WR likely will not make up (immediately) for what we lost with Adams and they really need to get a decent veteran WR.

Edited March 29, 2022 by DWhitehurst

[packfanfb]

 

[Sandy]

1 minute ago, DWhitehurst said:

Unknown factors yet. Time will tell, but, even aside from whom they might get in free agency, I wonder if there will be a run on WRs prior to pick #22? I wouldn't automatically assume that, say, Chris Olave would still be on board at pick #22. London, Wilson, Olave, and Jamison could all be off the board. They might be left choosing between Burks, Pickens, Watson, etc., and then will have to decide whether to reach for one of them due to "need" factor, or stick with BPA factor (at a position of lesser need) and wait and see if any of them are still on the board at picks #28 or #52. I mean, I could see them going BPA and thus might take an OL or Edge player at pick #22.  No matter whom they get, I think we all agree that rookie WR likely will not make up (immediately) for what we lost with Adams and they really need to get a decent veteran WR.

I think Burks has value at 22 depending on who else is there, and for all we know Gute completely disagrees about the value of some of the others and jumps at taking, say, Pickens because he ranked him too ten or something.

That said, if there is a run in receivers, that only means good things for us. Karlaftis, Davis, Penning, all become much more likely to fall to us at 22 in that event. Heck maybe even Charles Cross.  

Fact is only 21 players can be taken before us. It's impossible for all the good options to be off the board, whether it's at WR or not.

[R T]

11 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

People focus way to much on Combine 40 to determine speed. Scouts only use that to check the box. If a guy is getting hawked all the time on tape and then runs 4.39, there's skepticism there. If he never does (like Burks) and runs a 4.55, who cares? All that matters is if you're faster than the guys chasing you on the field, in full pads. Treylon Burks hit 22.6 mph, that's MVS fast. 

The problem with fans is this doesn't resonate with a high percentage of them. For them 4.3 is faster than 4.4 so 4.3 is the better player, with no concept of what shacking is and the important part it plays in being a deep threat.   

[Packerraymond]

13 minutes ago, packfanfb said:

 

That'll do, good enough to feel great about him, high enough that maybe he makes it to 22? Karlaftis vs Iowa is my favorite tape so far this year. Just a strong, violent dude.

[NFLGURU]

Speed for a WR is great but if you can't get in and out of cuts, you're a one trick pony.  

Give me the slightly slower guy who can cut on a dime.

[JBURGE]

17 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

That'll do, good enough to feel great about him, high enough that maybe he makes it to 22? Karlaftis vs Iowa is my favorite tape so far this year. Just a strong, violent dude.

I don't find him overly impressive. He had some good pass rush sets vs Iowa but overall I am kinda lukewarm on him. Fine with him in the 20s though, he's young. 

Edited March 29, 2022 by JBURGE

[packfanfb]

13 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

That'll do, good enough to feel great about him, high enough that maybe he makes it to 22? Karlaftis vs Iowa is my favorite tape so far this year. Just a strong, violent dude.

He's another prospect who turns 21 in April. 

[TheEagle]

London or Burks at 22 + Watkins, Pickens, Pierce, or Tolbert in round 2 makes a ton of sense for the Packers. I just doubt whether they’ll be available where we draft.