Baker Mayfield Trade value and the QBOTF

[big poppa pump]

I know that there are a bunch having a laugh at the notion of getting rid of Baker, or trying to upgrade from Baker, but if you aren't a little bit worried, I don't know what you have been watching?

 

Good Baker looks really really good (top 10 even)

 

Bad Baker looks awful (bottom tier in the NFL)

 

I want to know if it's the injury, O line play, WR play, scheme...etc?  Or is it HIM?  Regressing?

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

10 minutes ago, big poppa pump said:

I know that there are a bunch having a laugh at the notion of getting rid of Baker, or trying to upgrade from Baker, but if you aren't a little bit worried, I don't know what you have been watching?

 

Good Baker looks really really good (top 10 even)

 

Bad Baker looks awful (bottom tier in the NFL)

 

I want to know if it's the injury, O line play, WR play, scheme...etc?  Or is it HIM?  Regressing?

I don’t know if people think I’m joking or what, but I think it’s OBJ for whatever absurd reason.

There’s 4 years of data here. Whether Baker is looking for him too often, pressing to get him the ball, afraid to just let it rip elsewhere, idk, but when OBJ is playing Baker by and large looks like arse. Additionally, really the only time Baker has looked like arse in his career for any length of time has been with OBJ.  Without him he’s been by and large solid af and for extended periods of time.

This season he was completing 80% of his passes pre-OBJ and the offense was doing just fine.

I get its counterintuitive, illogical, etc., but Jesus, Mary and Joseph how many years do we need to see the same thing play out to just accept it is what it is and move on?  
 

“But that doesn’t make any sense! OBJ is open, etc”.  I get it.  It’s also the reality of the situation.

 

[JDD]

48 minutes ago, big poppa pump said:

I know that there are a bunch having a laugh at the notion of getting rid of Baker, or trying to upgrade from Baker, but if you aren't a little bit worried, I don't know what you have been watching?

 

Good Baker looks really really good (top 10 even)

 

Bad Baker looks awful (bottom tier in the NFL)

 

I want to know if it's the injury, O line play, WR play, scheme...etc?  Or is it HIM?  Regressing?

Because I watch football for fun and I post on here for fun.

After the Browns lost yesterday I still had to help get lunches packed, follow up with some work stuff, get the kids ready for bed, wake up and get ready and help get the kids ready, then come to work and kick ***. So it doesn't really matter what happened in the NFL game I watched. I also learned a long time ago that if the Browns win I have to do all those things still. So until my day is completely changed by the outcomes of the Browns, I'm not going to **** on the QB who has done enough to help change the direction of the team I like and I will also give him some time to figure it out. 

[big poppa pump]

1 hour ago, JDD said:

Because I watch football for fun and I post on here for fun.

After the Browns lost yesterday I still had to help get lunches packed, follow up with some work stuff, get the kids ready for bed, wake up and get ready and help get the kids ready, then come to work and kick ***. So it doesn't really matter what happened in the NFL game I watched. I also learned a long time ago that if the Browns win I have to do all those things still. So until my day is completely changed by the outcomes of the Browns, I'm not going to **** on the QB who has done enough to help change the direction of the team I like and I will also give him some time to figure it out. 

I get that it's not life and death we are talking about, and I don't even care that people are polarized (either way) for. or against Baker.  I'm just salty that I thought we had a good thing goin here, and it's not looking that way at the moment.  We can rattle off a bunch in a row, and Baker can look like a world beater.  We can all have a laugh then, and hear a bunch of "I told ya so's"  I would just like to know for once if we have a franchise QB, or something else?

[BrownLeader]

2 hours ago, LETSGOBROWNIES said:

I don’t know if people think I’m joking or what, but I think it’s OBJ for whatever absurd reason.

There’s 4 years of data here. Whether Baker is looking for him too often, pressing to get him the ball, afraid to just let it rip elsewhere, idk, but when OBJ is playing Baker by and large looks like arse. Additionally, really the only time Baker has looked like arse in his career for any length of time has been with OBJ.  Without him he’s been by and large solid af and for extended periods of time.

This season he was completing 80% of his passes pre-OBJ and the offense was doing just fine.

I get its counterintuitive, illogical, etc., but Jesus, Mary and Joseph how many years do we need to see the same thing play out to just accept it is what it is and move on?  
 

“But that doesn’t make any sense! OBJ is open, etc”.  I get it.  It’s also the reality of the situation.

 

I think having OBJ on the field makes Baker have to do more. OBJ is getting open and he/coaches know it. Baker is tasked with making better pre/post snaps reads to look for him and he's terrible at it. He's a big armed, accurate guy but doesn't read defenses well. He just picks his targets and let's it rip. When it's more or less first/second read in structure he's golden. Introduce a guy he or defenses have to alert to and he falls apart.

Figuring opposing DC's also see OBJ getting open on film and try to scheme him out. In the past Baker would just throw it in there and get fooled so it's almost as if the coaches this year told him to not worry about it and just play your game....the result is he doesn't even try to look OBJ's way. Even when he does see him open he doesn't trust it. And I think the tension and timing also ****s up OBJ.

It's possible a talented situational guy would work better than OBJ for him but I fear the chemistry thing is just exposing his issues with reads and while you could mask it up for a time, eventually it would be a problem regardless. I think the team would feel sick to trade OBJ just to have him succeed somewhere else(Randy Moss style), and still have Baker play the same.

Bottom line imo, Baker has a big problem, so the team has a big problem. He's tough and he'll be back and have good games in the future but he'll also have stinkers often enough to hold things back. To their credit no one has done any finger pointing, but man, when (not if) that happens things will go way south. That position leaving points and yards on the field is the primary difference between potentially 4-2 or even 5-1. The defense has been shred to bits in the losses but it shouldn't really be a surprise as it was completely overhauled with new guys. And it's impossible to ignore the impact of the refs legit carrying chips on their shoulders.

The sad part is I think it's clear you don't need an uber talent at QB to make this team right now a true contender...you need a guy that can see the field, read a defense and limit turnovers.

...since no one has a crystal ball it's impossible to tell what or who might work in the future. I think the FO will draft or acquire another potential QBOTF pretty soon. Real soon if this shoulder thing doesn't go away. Which tbh has a lot of questions about it and looks a little bit like a crutch or distraction fr.

 

here are a few intriguing veteran alternates that could be had...

Gardner Minshew

Even more of an engaging character than Baker but with a weaker arm. His strength though is his ability to read the field quickly.

Mitchell Trubisky

Failed miserably in Chicago but that's looking a bit more like Nagy's fault now.

Cam Newton

Don't lol, Cam got a raw deal in NE..a team with zero skill talent and an unfriendly QB system.

 

..and then probable later round 2022 draft eligibles that could shock and be good pros..

Brennan Armstrong, Virginia

Kenny Pickett, Pitt

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by BrownLeader

[NudeTayne]

1 hour ago, JDD said:

Because I watch football for fun and I post on here for fun.

After the Browns lost yesterday I still had to help get lunches packed, follow up with some work stuff, get the kids ready for bed, wake up and get ready and help get the kids ready, then come to work and kick ***. So it doesn't really matter what happened in the NFL game I watched. I also learned a long time ago that if the Browns win I have to do all those things still. So until my day is completely changed by the outcomes of the Browns, I'm not going to **** on the QB who has done enough to help change the direction of the team I like and I will also give him some time to figure it out. 

Wait you have kids? 😵 I thought you were like...1.

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

25 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

I think having OBJ on the field makes Baker have to do more. OBJ is getting open and he/coaches know it. Baker is tasked with making better pre/post snaps reads to look for him and he's terrible at it. He's a big armed, accurate guy but doesn't read defenses well. He just picks his targets and let's it rip. When it's more or less first/second read in structure he's golden. Introduce a guy he or defenses have to alert to and he falls apart.

Then why not just pick OBJ and let it rip?  

Quote

Figuring opposing DC's also see OBJ getting open on film and try to scheme him out. In the past Baker would just throw it in there and get fooled so it's almost as if the coaches this year told him to not worry about it and just play your game....the result is he doesn't even try to look OBJ's way.
 

What games are you watching?  OBJ leads the team in targets and has almost double any other receiver despite missing 1/3 of the current season.

Quote

Even when he does see him open he doesn't trust it.
 

He trusts it enough to, as I said, throw to him more often than anyone else…

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And I think the tension and timing also ****s up OBJ.

Maybe, sure.

Quote

It's possible a talented situational guy would work better than OBJ for him but I fear the chemistry thing is just exposing his issues with reads and while you could mask it up for a time, eventually it would be a problem regardless. I think the team would feel sick to trade OBJ just to have him succeed somewhere else(Randy Moss style), and still have Baker play the same.

Sure, if that happens.  It’s never actually happened in 4 seasons, before or during OBJ’s time here, but it could I suppose.

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Bottom line imo, Baker has a big problem, so the team has a big problem. He's tough and he'll be back and have good games in the future but he'll also have stinkers often enough to hold things back. To their credit no one has done any finger pointing, but man, when (not if) that happens things will go way south. That position leaving points and yards on the field is the primary difference between potentially 4-2 or even 5-1.
 

I mean, our offense isn’t why we’re 3-3.

Quote

The defense has been shred to bits in the losses but it shouldn't really be a surprise as it was completely overhauled with new guys.
 

9 top 50 picks including 3 top 4 picks, none of which are over 30.

We haven’t needed dominant, just middling tbh.  Haven’t had that against decent teams.

Quote

And it's impossible to ignore the impact of the refs legit carrying chips on their shoulders.

The refs have effed us.  Cost us a game imo.

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The sad part is I think it's clear you don't need an uber talent at QB to make this team right now a true contender...you need a guy that can see the field, read a defense and limit turnovers.

That was literally Baker Mayfield last season and this season without OBJ.  He also did well with that his rookie year, all things considered.

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...since no one has a crystal ball it's impossible to tell what or who might work in the future. I think the FO will draft or acquire another potential QBOTF pretty soon.
 

I’d be shocked if they did anything of note until after next season.

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Real soon if this shoulder thing doesn't go away.
 

Torn labrums don’t just go away quickly, many require surgery.

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Which tbh has a lot of questions about it and looks a little bit like a crutch or distraction fr.

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by LETSGOBROWNIES

[BrownLeader]

@LETSGOBROWNIES

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Then why not just pick OBJ and let it rip?  

He tried that in 2019 and 2020.

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What games are you watching?  OBJ leads the team in targets and has almost double any other receiver despite missing 1/3 of the current season.

So your take is that OBJ is a major part of the passing offense and not more of a decoy than anything else?

Quote

I mean, our offense isn’t why we’re 3-3.

Of course it's a part of it. How many defenses in the league right now can legit slow down the best offenses and quarterbacks. If your offense has an opportunity to win the game outright and fails, it's certainly then a part of the loss

 

...initially not on the injury report. Coach says it's not affecting him in practice. Has an awful game then it's because of the shoulder. Then looks fine in a game. Has another awful game and it's the shoulder. Appears to seriously re-injure it but keeps playing looking more or less the same. Then guarantees he's playing again in a few days.

To be clear I'm 100% not doubting his shoulder is indeed hurt.

But his pride is also hurting from his bad play and I'll wager he'd rather look tough as **** then deal with why he's playing bad.

Edited October 18, 2021 by BrownLeader

[JDD]

2 hours ago, NudeTayne said:

Wait you have kids? 😵 I thought you were like...1.

I am but just really mature for my age

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

5 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

@LETSGOBROWNIES

He tried that in 2019 and 2020.

And looked bad throwing to OBJ then too.

Of course without OBJ last season his numbers were outstanding.

5 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

So your take is that OBJ is a major part of the passing offense and not more of a decoy than anything else?

I didn’t give you my take.  I gave you factual evidence he’s thrown to more than twice as often than any other receiver when he plays.

But if you’re asking, yeah, I think we throw his way too often.  This offense/Baker works well when the ball goes to the open guy and everyone gets involved.  That’s what worked in 2018, never happened in 2019, worked in 2020 and looked good so far this season without OBJ.

Don’t take my word for it, look at the numbers. I’m sure it’s just a 4 year coincidence though that Baker plays better without OBJ.

5 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

Of course it's a part of it. How many defenses in the league right now can legit slow down the best offenses and quarterbacks. If your offense has an opportunity to win the game outright and fails, it's certainly then a part of the loss

The offense did plenty to win the fame against the Chargers for sure. 
 

If you want to argue semantics, sure, they’re part of the problem.

5 minutes ago, BrownLeader said:

...initially not on the injury report. Coach says it's not affecting him in practice. Has an awful game then it's because of the shoulder. Then looks fine in a game. Has another awful game and it's the shoulder. Appears to seriously re-injure it but keeps playing looking more or less the same. Then guarantees he's playing again in a few days.

To be clear I'm 100% not doubting his shoulder is indeed hurt.

But his pride is also hurting from his bad play and I'll wager he'd rather look tough as **** then deal with why he's playing bad.

I’m not sure how you’d like me to debate or discuss your perception of his injury.

[NudeTayne]

1 hour ago, JDD said:

I am but just really mature for my age

That makes the most sense. You had your first one when you were a quarter and your second when you were a half. You have a half-year-old and a three-quarter-year-old. That makes the most sense.

Psshh...nice try. You've gotta be at least three times older than 1 for any of that mumbo jumbo to be possible. 

 

But seriously, that's really cool that you found a lady that would let you do those things to her body.

 

[candyman93]

Is Joe Flacco elite?

[JDD]

8 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

Is Joe Flacco elite?

I guy I used to work with had a shirt that said he was 

[NateDawg]

My biggest frustration right now is that it’s year 4 and I’m not sure we are further along knowing what we have at QB then year 2. 

Timeline: Good season for a rookie QB, really bad year 2 under awful coaching, above average QB in year 3, looking like year 2 Baker so far in year 4 (yes I know he’s injured, doesn’t necessarily alter what we can be sure of though). 

It’s obvious right now, you play through year 4-5 without contract negotiations and if he takes a big step next season you go from there. 

[LETSGOBROWNIES]

9 hours ago, candyman93 said:

Is Joe Flacco elite?

Absolutely not.

He was however good enough to start for a more consistent and accomplished franchise than this one (in modern history anyway) for 11 years until they had a chance to grab his replacement and allow said replacement to be delveloped and in the meantime won a super bowl.

Baker is an average starter with the ability to get hot for stretches and play some very good football, much like Flacco. He’s not elite.  If we could get an elite QB, we should do it.

I just think all of this “I’m done with Baker” stuff is fairly nonsensical because;

a. He’s going to be here and be our starter the rest of this season and next season baring a wild series of events

b. There’s no elite QB to draft until maybe 2023, and hopefully we won’t have a shot at taking him.

If you’re thinking of trading for Rodgers or somebody, sure, I suppose, maybe. It’s also not gonna happen this season.