Sllim Pickens Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Karnage84 said: Looking forward to Free Agency and the Draft, I wanted to take a closer look at a couple options for the Lions and see how they might fit on our roster. Does the player have a future role? Will they solve a key problem for us? SAFETY Lions Free Agents Tracy Walker (26.9) - UFA PFF - 65.1 OVR; 66.4 RDEF; 58.1 PRSH; 64.2 COV Snaps: FS - 615; SCB - 94; LB - 73; SS - 72; Estimated 2022 Contract - $3M - $4M (Using Spotrac projection of Xavier Woods > similar age/PFF score) CJ Moore (26.1) - RFA PFF - 59.2 OVR; 49.7 RDEF; 55.9 PRSH; 62.3 COV Snaps: FS - 61; LB - 39; SCB - 37; SS - 6; Dean Marlowe (29.5) - UFA PFF - 61.6 OVR; 54.0 RDEF; 64.1 PRSH; 63.0 COV Snaps: FS - 388; LB - 134; SCB - 81; SS - 56; Lions Rostered Players Will Harris (26.1) PFF - 41.0 OVR; 51.6 RDEF; 50.3 PRSH; 39.6 COV Snaps: FS - 317; SCB - 238; OCB - 227; LB - 142; SS - 53; OTHER GUYS Jalen Elliott Brady Breeze The Lions MIGHT re-sign Walker, depending on what his contract holds. It's evident that they need to upgrade the position in a big way. Whether it's by bringing in a FA (or a couple FA's) and/or the draft, this is a position that needs some work. FREE AGENT TARGETS Marcus Williams (25.3), FS, New Orleans PFF - 80.1 OVR; 68.1 RDEF; N/A PRSH; 84.3 COV Snaps: FS - 922; SS - 51; LB - 36; SCB - 21; Estimated 2022 Contract - $13.5M via Spotrac Williams could be a direct replacement and major upgrade over Walker. It would still leave a gap at SS. DRAFT (TBD - ADDING A COUPLE GUYS) Jaquan Brisker, Penn State PFF - 82.4 OVR; 67.4 RDEF; 61.9 PRSH; 89.5 COV Snaps: LB - 246; SS - 187; FS - 165; SCB - 153; Markquese Bell, Florida A&M PFF - 81.5 OVR; 88.4 RDEF; 72.0 PRSH; 78.5 COV Snaps: SCB - 195; SS - 189; FS - 177; LB - 111; I really hope we sign Williams. New Orleans obviously can't afford him and he would be reunited with his DB coach in Glenn. Would be a huge upgrade for the back end. Adding someone like Brisker or Cine at the top of the 2nd would be nice. If we wait until the third or later then Bell, Kerby Joseph, Percy Butler or Bryan Cook would be good options. Can you get a PFF breakdown on those guys you haven't covered yet? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 15 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said: I really hope we sign Williams. New Orleans obviously can't afford him and he would be reunited with his DB coach in Glenn. Would be a huge upgrade for the back end. Adding someone like Brisker or Cine at the top of the 2nd would be nice. If we wait until the third or later then Bell, Kerby Joseph, Percy Butler or Bryan Cook would be good options. Can you get a PFF breakdown on those guys you haven't covered yet? Yep - working on it. I'm also working on breaking down the snap count for single high/split safety looks under Glenn's defense. My initial thinking was that we should try to get Williams and directly replace Walker. However, it feels like there would be room for both guys along with more of a SS/Nickel LB type (likely through the draft). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Karnage84 said: Bell, Kerby Joseph, Percy Butler or Bryan Cook Good start to a list. I looked at Cine and he has a role (IMO) under specific circumstances. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 NAME POSITION LE DLT DRT RE NT NLT NRT LEO LOLB REO ROLB TOTAL Levi Onwuzurike DE 46 200 94 25 1 12 4 9 2 393 Allim McNeill NT 5 127 114 20 66 38 47 0 5 422 Nick Williams DE 164 297 50 12 34 36 5 21 1 620 John Penisini NT 0 37 94 0 57 36 51 0 0 275 Michael Brockers DE 14 18 353 116 16 0 23 30 52 622 TOTAL 229 679 705 173 174 122 130 60 60 2332 Charles Harris OLB 3 1 1 4 5 0 1 73 50 392 319 849 Austin Bryant OLB 31 9 1 10 0 0 0 152 160 24 44 431 Julian Okwara OLB 0 0 1 0 8 0 0 102 107 56 61 335 Trey Flowers OLB 12 13 107 89 23 4 1 52 6 371 21 699 TOTAL 46 23 110 103 36 4 2 379 323 843 445 2314 Derrick Barnes LB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 0 3 12 Jalen Reeves-Maybin LB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 0 18 33 Alex Anzalone LB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 21 0 18 39 Anthony Pittman LB 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 0 4 14 TOTAL 98 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) A slight detour - I'm analyzing the snap breakdown along the defensive line. I wanted to get a better handle on Charles Harris' role and how he could fit in a future defense that would include other EDGE players - Romeo Okwara (back from injury), Julian Okwara (developing), Austin Bryant, Trey Flowers along with potential future draft picks Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux. NAME POSITION LE DT RE NT LEO/LOLB REO/ROLB Levi Onwuzurike DE 46 294 25 17 9 2 Allim McNeill NT 5 241 20 151 0 5 Nick Williams DE 164 347 12 75 21 1 John Penisini NT 0 131 0 144 0 0 Michael Brockers DE 14 371 116 39 30 52 TOTAL 229 1384 173 426 60 60 Charles Harris OLB 3 2 4 6 123 711 Austin Bryant OLB 31 10 10 0 312 68 Julian Okwara OLB 0 1 0 8 209 117 Trey Flowers OLB 12 120 89 28 58 392 TOTAL 46 133 103 42 702 1288 Edited January 27, 2022 by Karnage84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 hours ago, Karnage84 said: A slight detour - I'm analyzing the snap breakdown along the defensive line. I wanted to get a better handle on Charles Harris' role and how he could fit in a future defense that would include other EDGE players - Romeo Okwara (back from injury), Julian Okwara (developing), Austin Bryant, Trey Flowers along with potential future draft picks Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux. NAME POSITION LE DT RE NT LEO/LOLB REO/ROLB Levi Onwuzurike DE 46 294 25 17 9 2 Allim McNeill NT 5 241 20 151 0 5 Nick Williams DE 164 347 12 75 21 1 John Penisini NT 0 131 0 144 0 0 Michael Brockers DE 14 371 116 39 30 52 TOTAL 229 679 173 174 60 60 Charles Harris OLB 3 2 4 6 123 711 Austin Bryant OLB 31 10 10 0 312 68 Julian Okwara OLB 0 1 0 8 209 117 Trey Flowers OLB 12 120 89 28 58 392 TOTAL 46 133 103 42 702 1288 Aidan Hutchinson PFF - 94.5 OVR; 90.8 RDEF; 93.3 PRSH; 77.6 COV LOLB - 336 ROLB - 316 DT - 3 DE - 11 LEO - 0 REO - 0 Kayvon Thibodeaux PFF - 83.9 OVR; 76.8 RDEF; 91.5 PRSH; 49.5 COV LOLB - 207 ROLB - 198 DT - 10 DE - 26 (13) LEO - 19 (122) REO - 19 (124) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 PFF SCORES DEFENSIVE LINE (DT, LE, RE, NT) Michael Brockers - 40.5 OVR; 42.7 RDEF; 47.9 PRSH; 59.2 COV > $8.9M Nick Williams - 50.3 OVR; 47.6 RDEF; 53.7 PRSH; 60.4 COV > $2.95M (2021) - FA 2022 Levi Onwuzurike - 43.2 OVR; 39.3 RDEF; 56.5 PRSH; 60.0 COV > $1.8M Alim McNeill - 60.1 OVR; 55.0; 63.3 PRSH; 61.7 COV > $1.16M Trey Flowers - 63.1 OVR; 62.8 RDEF; 60.9 PRSH; 61.4 COV > $23M Nick Williams played a ton of snaps for us but is now a free agent. There's room for improvement at the position. Either Levi can step up or the Lions have a gap that needs to be filled. Brockers has played the most snaps on the defensive line but without great results and has a hefty price tag. Unfortunately the Lions would eat about $7M in dead cap if he is cut, so he's likely coming back. Flowers has versatility but his overall performance vs his price tag is out of whack. Flowers is a likely trade candidate or post-June 1st cap casualty. DEFENSIVE END/EDGE (LE, RE, LEO, REO, LOLB, ROLB) Charles Harris - 68.2 OVR; 60.7 RDEF; 78.6 PRSH; 40.3 COV >$1.75M (2021) > FA 2022 Austin Bryant - 54.0 OVR; 55.1 RDEF; 55.4 PRSH; 51.4 COV > $1.14M Julian Okwara - 67.7 OVR; 54.2 RDEF; 76.8 PRSH; 70.1 COV > $1.34M Trey Flowers - 63.1 OVR; 62.8 RDEF; 60.9 PRSH; 61.4 COV > $23M Michael Brockers - 40.5 OVR; 42.7 RDEF; 47.9 PRSH; 59.2 COV > $8.9M Nick Williams - 50.3 OVR; 47.6 RDEF; 53.7 PRSH; 60.4 COV > $2.95M (2021) - FA 2022 Levi Onwuzurike - 43.2 OVR; 39.3 RDEF; 56.5 PRSH; 60.0 COV > $1.8M Romeo Okwara - 73.3 OVR; 58.0 RDEF; 79.7 PRSH; 65.1 COV > $14.5M Harris is a free agent but was the Lions top pass-rusher in 2021. If you can bring him back on a reasonable contract, he'd be a tremendous asset on the rebuilding defense. Julian Okwara is an ascending player and has a role on the left side of the defense as a pass-rusher. Romeo Okwara played principally on the left side but is likely to be replaced by either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux via the draft and his brother, Julian. Austin Bryant has played key backup snaps but is replaceable TEAM NEEDS DLT, LE, RE, LOLB 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 REPLACING NICK WILLIAMS (DT) DRAFT Devonte Wyatt, Georgia, 6'3, 315 LBS PFF: 89.8 OVR; 81.9 RDEF; 84.0 PRSH; 73.4 COV DLT - 126; DRT - 88; LE - 30; NT - 29 Phidarian Mathis, Alabama, 6'4, 312 LBS PFF: 81.4 OVR; 81.6 RDEF; 77.4 PRSH; 55.7 COV DLT - 180; NT - 63; LE - 60; DRT - 53;RE - 22 Perrion Winfrey, Oklahoma, 6'4, 292 PFF: 59.7 OVR; 49.6 RDEF; 79.3 PRSH; 60.0 COV DRT - 141; DLT - 139; NT - 128; RE - 27; LE - 24 REPLACING TREY FLOWERS (DE/EDGE) > A few more on the way (TBD) Logan Hall, Houston, 6'6, 260 LBS PFF: 83.4 OVR; 78.0 RDEF; 84.9 PRSH; 62.5 COV DLT - 178; DRT - 163; LE - 42; LEO - 9; RE - 41; REO - 10 Travon Walker, Georgia, 6'5, 275 LBS PFF: 71.4 OVR; 73.7 RDEF; 65.8 PRSH; 66.2 COV REO - 121; LEO - 75; RE - 53; DRT - 47; LOLB - 31; ROLB - 31 Jermaine Johnson, Florida State, 6'5, 262 LBS PFF: 81.1 OVR; 79.2 RDEF; 75.9 PRSH; 72.5 COV LEO - 226; LOLB - 164; ROLB - 158; REO - 142 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, Karnage84 said: PFF SCORES DEFENSIVE LINE (DT, LE, RE, NT) Michael Brockers - 40.5 OVR; 42.7 RDEF; 47.9 PRSH; 59.2 COV > $8.9M Nick Williams - 50.3 OVR; 47.6 RDEF; 53.7 PRSH; 60.4 COV > $2.95M (2021) - FA 2022 Levi Onwuzurike - 43.2 OVR; 39.3 RDEF; 56.5 PRSH; 60.0 COV > $1.8M Alim McNeill - 60.1 OVR; 55.0; 63.3 PRSH; 61.7 COV > $1.16M Trey Flowers - 63.1 OVR; 62.8 RDEF; 60.9 PRSH; 61.4 COV > $23M Nick Williams played a ton of snaps for us but is now a free agent. There's room for improvement at the position. Either Levi can step up or the Lions have a gap that needs to be filled. Brockers has played the most snaps on the defensive line but without great results and has a hefty price tag. Unfortunately the Lions would eat about $7M in dead cap if he is cut, so he's likely coming back. Flowers has versatility but his overall performance vs his price tag is out of whack. Flowers is a likely trade candidate or post-June 1st cap casualty. DEFENSIVE END/EDGE (LE, RE, LEO, REO, LOLB, ROLB) Charles Harris - 68.2 OVR; 60.7 RDEF; 78.6 PRSH; 40.3 COV >$1.75M (2021) > FA 2022 Austin Bryant - 54.0 OVR; 55.1 RDEF; 55.4 PRSH; 51.4 COV > $1.14M Julian Okwara - 67.7 OVR; 54.2 RDEF; 76.8 PRSH; 70.1 COV > $1.34M Trey Flowers - 63.1 OVR; 62.8 RDEF; 60.9 PRSH; 61.4 COV > $23M Michael Brockers - 40.5 OVR; 42.7 RDEF; 47.9 PRSH; 59.2 COV > $8.9M Nick Williams - 50.3 OVR; 47.6 RDEF; 53.7 PRSH; 60.4 COV > $2.95M (2021) - FA 2022 Levi Onwuzurike - 43.2 OVR; 39.3 RDEF; 56.5 PRSH; 60.0 COV > $1.8M Romeo Okwara - 73.3 OVR; 58.0 RDEF; 79.7 PRSH; 65.1 COV > $14.5M Harris is a free agent but was the Lions top pass-rusher in 2021. If you can bring him back on a reasonable contract, he'd be a tremendous asset on the rebuilding defense. Julian Okwara is an ascending player and has a role on the left side of the defense as a pass-rusher. Romeo Okwara played principally on the left side but is likely to be replaced by either Hutchinson or Thibodeaux via the draft and his brother, Julian. Austin Bryant has played key backup snaps but is replaceable TEAM NEEDS DLT, LE, RE, LOLB ORDERED BY SNAPS RDEF (28th Ranked Rushing Defense) LE/LEO - N. Williams (47.6); A. Bryant (55.1); J. Okwara (54.2) DLT - N. Williams (47.6); L. Onwuzurike (39.3); A. McNeill (55.0) DRT - M. Brockers (42.7); A. McNeill (55.0); T. Flowers (62.8) RE/REO - C. Harris (60.7); T. Flowers (62.8); M. Brockers (42.7) PRSH (26th Ranked Passing Defense - 23rd Passing Yards; 29th Sacks) LE/LEO - N. Williams (53.7); A. Bryant (55.4); J. Okwara (76.8) DLT - N. Williams (53.7); L. Onwuzurike (56.5); A. McNeill (63.3) DRT - M. Brockers (47.9); A. McNeill (63.3); T. Flowers (60.9) RE/REO - C. Harris (78.6); T. Flowers (60.9); M. Brockers (47.9) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 (edited) For anyone following along, this is an exercise to help expand my own understanding of the Lions defense and to try and make educated decisions while working through a future mock draft. Run Defense: We need to vastly improve our run defense and that starts right in the middle. Brockers is likely going to be playing a big role again next year but we're going to need to plug someone else in beside him. Either Levi steps up or we add someone else in FA or via the draft. Even if we just get this to a 16th ranked unit, it'll be vastly superior to what we rolled out this past year. Adding someone like Hutchinson should have an instant impact in this area. RDEF (28th Ranked Rushing Defense) LE/LEO - A. Hutchinson (74.5*); A. Bryant (55.1); J. Okwara (54.2) DLT - TBD; L. Onwuzurike (39.3); A. McNeill (55.0) DRT - M. Brockers (42.7); A. McNeill (55.0); T. Flowers (62.8) RE/REO - C. Harris (60.7); T. Flowers (62.8); M. Brockers (42.7) *Hutchinson - 87.7 less 15% (projected for moving to NFL) Pass Defense: We have some bright spots here - Charles Harris (assuming he's brought back); Julian Okwara and Romeo Okwara. We need to improve our pass rush up the middle. Hutchinson should step in and be the best pass-rusher on the team, leading a 3 to 4 headed monster (Hutch, Harris, R. Okwara, J. Okwara) LE/LEO - A. Hutchinson (79.1*); A. Bryant (55.4); J. Okwara (76.8) DLT - TBD; L. Onwuzurike (56.5); A. McNeill (63.3) DRT - M. Brockers (47.9); A. McNeill (63.3); T. Flowers (60.9) RE/REO - C. Harris (78.6); T. Flowers (60.9); M. Brockers (47.9) *Hutchinson - 93.0 less 15% (projected for moving to NFL) # OF SNAPS ALONG DEFENSIVE LINE ALIGNMENT LEO LE DLT NT DRT RE REO 762 275 702 468 815 276 1348 Edited January 28, 2022 by Karnage84 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL-TwoWinsAway Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Woah. Fantastic information Karnage. Thanks for putting the work in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Louis Friend Posted January 28, 2022 Author Share Posted January 28, 2022 Marcus Williams is #1 on my FA wish list. I know we can draft a backup TE, a backup QB, a good EDGE #2, a WR somewhere... but safety has been at the top of my priority list for years. We give up too much right up the middle. ILB/S is our biggest needs IMO. Despite Safety being my #1 concern, I'm not sure I'm comfortable taking Kyle Hamilton #2. I still have Hutch and Kayvon as the top 2 players in the draft. But if we moved down even a spot or two... Hamilton would be my top choice. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 1 hour ago, Louis Friend said: Marcus Williams is #1 on my FA wish list. I know we can draft a backup TE, a backup QB, a good EDGE #2, a WR somewhere... but safety has been at the top of my priority list for years. We give up too much right up the middle. ILB/S is our biggest needs IMO. Despite Safety being my #1 concern, I'm not sure I'm comfortable taking Kyle Hamilton #2. I still have Hutch and Kayvon as the top 2 players in the draft. But if we moved down even a spot or two... Hamilton would be my top choice. What I've been trying to figure out is who we need to fill certain roles on defense. 5 hours ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said: Woah. Fantastic information Karnage. Thanks for putting the work in. Coming back to the safety group, as I agree with @Louis Friend with safety being a big issue for us. Here's hoping this comes out in the way that I'm trying to communicate. Defensive Snaps - 1126 (according to Pro Football Reference, Will Harris accounted for 88% of snaps, grossed it up to get the figure) Split High (FSL/FSR): 911 Snaps (81%) Single High (Designated FS): 473 Snaps (42%) SSCB (Safety as Slot CB): 450 Snaps (40%) SLB (Safety as LB): 381 Snaps (34%) Box Safety (SS): 197 Snaps (17%) Tracy Walker - 881 Snaps FS - 615 Snaps (357 Split/258 Single High) LB - 97 SCB - 94 SS - 72 Will Harris - 1011 Snaps FS - 317 Snaps (211 FSR-Split) SCB - 238 CB - 227 LB - 176 SS - 53 Dean Marlowe - 700 Snaps FS - 388 Snaps (288 Split/100 Single) LB - 171 SCB - 81 SS - 56 Walker is a free agent; Marlowe is a free agent and Harris plays a ton of snaps but deserves to be replaced (or at least take more of a backseat role). Marcus Williams is absolutely a target that we should be going after. We arguably could keep Walker and add Williams as the leader of our safety group. Marcus Williams - with Saints (1040 Snaps) FS - 922 Snaps (351 Single High; 571 Split) SS - 51 LB - 37 SCB - 21 CB - 6 Not that these guys can't shift around, but it also seems to mesh really well in terms of snaps played in different spots. FSL - Walker (260); Williams (257) FS - Williams (351); Walker (258) FSR - Williams (314); Walker (97) Williams can play anywhere but he has a ton of snaps playing on the right side whereas Walker has played more on the left. Williams becomes that chess piece that he is (and what you're paying him for) while still having a solid role for Walker. You're making Walker the Robin he really is instead of Batman. I still feel there's room for improvement and the Lions seemed to play the trio of Walker, Harris and Marlowe quite a bit. There are guys in the draft that would fulfill the over 400 snaps (414) that Harris played at LB/SCB. That's something I'll be digging into more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nnivolcm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 18 hours ago, Karnage84 said: Will Harris - 1011 Snaps FS - 317 Snaps (211 FSR-Split) SCB - 238 CB - 227 LB - 176 SS - 53 Do you have access to how Harris was rated playing S vs CB? I thought he was a total bust but he seemed to improve when they put him at CB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Karnage84 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 11:21 AM, Nnivolcm said: Do you have access to how Harris was rated playing S vs CB? I thought he was a total bust but he seemed to improve when they put him at CB. I might... you can see game by game ratings and the scores in the different categories for said game. I'll take a look at that for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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