Week 16 TNF: San Francisco 49ers (8-6) at Tennessee Titans (9-5)

[Forge]

10 minutes ago, Apparition said:

real enough to be picked up by SI

 

Yeah, I got it from B/R. 

I don't think it's fake if only because the version I posted had different people listed as "followed by", so seems like it's a different person posting the screenshot. But can't say for sure if it's deleted. May have been an accidental scrolling like. I've done that a ton. 

Still, real or not, accident or purpose, it's just funny

[Forge]

Lol that was fast

I don't know why he's apologizing for liking a tweet that plenty of niners fans liked

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 hours ago, Forge said:

There is nothing that supports Shanahan is a particularly good talent evaluator. 

He's got hits, he's got misses. There's nothing to support the idea that he's anything special in that regard and any opinion on either side of the line is simply that...an opinion. 

An opinion based on facts can be considered a judgement.

[Forge]

41 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

An opinion based on facts can be considered a judgement.

It's an opinion even still. 

But you also think shanny was the issue last night and the niners have the best offense and the best defense in the NFL so pretty sure we aren't going to find much in agreement. 

All entitled to our opinions. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

4 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's an opinion even still.

In the same sense that a medical opinion from a rando is the same as one from an examining physician, yes.  Personal whim versus logical conclusion based on evidence.  How does it help to conflate these two?

"The 1972 Miami Dolphins were better than the 2008 Detroit Lions" is just an opinion, right?

[Forge]

2 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

In the same sense that a medical opinion from a rando is the same as one from an examining physician, yes.  Personal whim versus logical conclusion based on evidence.  How does it help to conflate these two?

"The 1972 Miami Dolphins were better than the 2008 Detroit Lions" is just an opinion, right?

Please provide evidence for your shanny opinion that would support the idea he's a special talent evaluator. I can provide plenty that counters it. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

2 minutes ago, Forge said:

Please provide evidence for your shanny opinion that would support the idea he's a special talent evaluator. I can provide plenty that counters it. 

That's easy.   To save time, though, please tell me which of these statements you are challenging:

1. San Francisco is one of the best franchises in the NFL.

2. Kyle Shanahan has been key to assembling that team.

[Forge]

1 minute ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

That's easy.   To save time, though, please tell me which of these statements you are challenging:

1. San Francisco is one of the best franchises in the NFL.

2. Kyle Shanahan has been key to assembling that team.

1. What's the cut off for "best"? I've said since the start of the season that they are a wild card type team which is what they are. That makes them roughly an average team. 14 teams get in the playoffs and there are 32 teams. Is the 12th best team one of the "best franchises in the nfl" for this year? 

2. The point was never arguing that he's been a key in assembling the team. He's the damn decision maker and in charge of the team. Of course he's a key to assembling it. I challenge the idea that he has been great at it or that he has shown enough to be considered a good talent evaluator or team builder. 

[Forge]

The niners have brought in a lot of talent because they have taken a lot of cracks at it and this regime was taking over for the second worst team in the league that had limited talent. They have missed a ton. There is nothing wrong with this, and the combined total of these assets that were used on the team don't condemn or support the regime. They all have their own story. You don't expect the team to be 100% or anything with regards to all of their moves either, so this isn't being laid out to castigate each and every decision of this regime. 

Assets used in order to get to current QB situation under this regime: 

• 3 firsts (Lance)
• 1 second round pick (Jimmy)
• 2 third round picks (Lance + Beathard)
• 100+ million in cash / cap (Jimmy)

This is obviously very swingy depending on Lance. Could be great, could be a disaster. Likely somewhere in between. 

 

Assets used for running backs in this regime: 

This one is pretty bad when you consider that most would consider this completely unnecessary given the success of Shanny to crank out excellent production from limited cost as @Broncofan was mentioning earlier. There is just no reason to go overboard like this. For 2 of Shanny's five years, this team spent more on the RB position than any other team in the league, I believe....and we didn't have a zeke, cook, cmc or henry type. 

• Ridiculous free agent contract to Jet Mckinnon making him a to 5 paid running back coming off two sub 4 ypc seasons
• Insipid Tevin Coleman contract (during these years, they paid 4 of the top 30 running backs in terms of cap hits in the league...all while having Matt Breida on a UDFA deal). In 2019 they had the 9th, 10th, 17th and 30th highest running back cap hits. In 2020, they had 8, 12, 21 and the only reason Jet wasn't in the top 15  and making it four in the top 22 was because they pushed 2 million of his cap hit to this year. 
• 3 Fourth round picks (Joe Williams, Trey Sermon)
• 1 fifth round pick (Joe Williams as well)
• 1 sixth round pick (Mitchell)
• They twice paid juice to ridiculous standards for a fullback that is only muted by the fact that its such a small amount compared to the cap as a whole. 
• (for those curious, Mostert was brought in by Chip Kelly. The most successful running backs in this tenure are UDFA Breida, UDFA Wilson, UDFA Mostert brought in for special teams by Kelly, 6th round pick Mitchell)

Assets used for receivers this regime: 

• Ridiculous free agent contract to Pierre Garcon
• 1 First (Aiyuk)
• 2 seconds (Pettis, Deebo)
• 3 third round picks (Pettis, Hurd, Manny Sanders)
• 2 fourth round picks (Aiyuk as well, Manny Sanders)
• 2 fifth round picks (trent taylor, Aiyuk)
• 2 seventh round picks (Jennings, James)

Obviously these aren't all good and aren't all bad. Later assets such as the 7th round picks are largely whatever and I would support that the selections have been good given where they were picked and what they provided or are providing (obviously not gamebreakers or anything, but they served a role). Something like the manny trade I would actually say was a good move, but again, this is a regime that is taking the bat off their shoulders to swing  a lot. That trade was always designed to be for a rental (they did get two picks back in that situation, one from comp). 

How are the teams top tier picks looking? Well, you could say that they miss more than have big hits in the first couple of rounds. ITs hard to give them any credit for Bosa given the situation, but here are their first round picks under this regime: 

• Solly Thomas & Foster...both busts (a draft that produced Mahomes and Watson and Shanny admitted he didn't even scout. Its an egregious act for a coach that was largely just intent on getting Kirk Cousins the following off season)
• Mike McGlinchey - we trade a highly competent tackle on a 7th round rookie deal in Trent Brown for nothing more than a swap of mid round picks and drafted this dude who is exactly what he was always going to be. A great run blocker and very poor pass protector in a passing league. He's basically a suped up version of Tom Compton who is currently playing right tackle for us. Brown has his issues, but this was largely a lateral talent move which is odd for a team that was just not good. The pick isn't awful per se, but Minkah was a guy high on their list that year that they bypassed who may have been a better pick, Vita Vea is a guy they could have taken to fill the gap in the middle which they have been unable to do, Derwin James..Tremaine Edmunds, and you can argue that Miller is just a flat out better tackle. 
• Nick Bosa - I mean, this was pretty simple. 
• Javon Kinlaw - we traded Deforest Buckner, an all pro, for this pick that is rapidly heading down bustville because he has arthritic knees and can't stay on the field (another win for our wonderful medical team) & Aiyuk, a guy that was benched and frozen out of the offense earlier this year. We traded up for a receiver in one of the best receiver classes in history (the next team to trade up for a receiver was in like round 6 or something, I believe because frankly there was just not a need to do so at the time of the draft) and we could have just sat tight and taken Higgins or Pittman (or maybe even Aiyuk). 
• Trey Lance (unknown). 

Second round picks gave us Deebo, but Pettis was a complete bust and Banks has largely been a scratch this year and as a 24 year old guard coming from Notre Dame, that doesn't at all bode well (still early, not a guarantee that he doesn't amount ot something...and shanny seems to be dead set on not playing any rookies as much as possible, so it may be more about that than Banks' actual abilities, though he was pretty much ripped apart all camp, preseason and had a bad showing in one of the very few snaps he's gotten in). Hell, they took a punter in the 4th round at one point. 

They have crushed middle and late round picks with guys like Warner and Kittle, but if seattle taught us anything it's that constantly hitting on those is probably not a sustainable method of success given the randomness of the draft. I'm not sure who has more say in those mid round picks, the scouts or the FO, but given Shanny's pulling rank to draft "never playing a snap" Joe Williams, I want to say that Shanny has more say than perhaps a typical coach in that situation, so full marks for guys like Kittle. 

 

Free agent deals and trades? They've made a few huge acquisitions with guys like Sherman and Williams. I'm glad that they understood hall of fame talent may have been worthwhile to bring in and I'm thankful that Williams blocked a trade to the Vikings (though his side later disputed that account). Jason Verrett was a huge boon in what was otherwise a lost season, but still. 

They also made Kwon Alexander the highest paid inside linebacker in history coming off a torn ACL and got 13 games from him. They traded a second for Dee Ford, gave him a big deal and restructured it twice (which was by far the biggest issue)  for a little over 400 snaps so far. It's the move that won't stop taking. They made Weston Richburg the second highest paid center in the league coming off a year where he missed half the season only to have him suffer through two injury plagued years (the first of which he was really bad) before retiring. Days after the niners signed Richburg, Tampa signed Ryan Jensen. 

Who can forget that wonderful Malcolm Smith contract, too. He played less than a season for the niners and gave them 330 snaps (over 12 million for a guy that was also widely considered one of the worst linebackers in football when signed). Pierre Garcon gave them less than 800 yards in 2 years for that contract (over 22 million). Jonathan Cooper got 4 million to never play a snap, I believe.  They traded Buckner because there was more trade value there than with Armstead, but meanwhile he's a 20 million dollar cap hit next year getting outplayed by Arden Key (and I'm an AA supporter and think that he's very underrated...he's ultimately just not going to be worth 3 years / 50 million they gave him) and their compensation for Buckner has been underwhelming. 

One of the biggest things that helped propel the 9ers to success was the development of Trent Baalke defensive draft picks who started playing well under Saleh. Not necessarily guys that shanny and his squad brought in. Guys like Kocurek, Ryans, Saleh and Joe Woods probably deserve that credit (with Shanny getting credit for hiring them). Jimmie Ward was flipped from corner to safety and has been awesome. Tartt was given the starting role once Eric Reid left and when he could stay healthy he was good. Armstead has mostly been good but managed to stay healthy and then had a random year where he got sacks. Buckner took the next step before he was traded. Ronald Blair always played very well in a rotational pass rusher role once the team moved away from the 3-4.

Again, I'm not saying he's good or bad at developing talent, evaluating talent, etc. He's got a big sample size of both. There's nothing that supports that he's really better or worse at this than others (mostly because I doubt people want to data mine this much info to figure it out), hence why I said it was fair to criticize him as a team builder and developer / evaluator of talent. This team once got to a super bowl under his stewardship. That is not up for debate...it's something that happensed. That in and of itself can be somewhat random, however, and on the whole does absolve one from their mistakes or support the idea that they are somehow great at something over a larger sample. Joe Flacco is not a great QB just because he went on perhaps the greatest tear in post season history and won a super bowl. 

 As indicated, you can also question his head coaching decisions with regards to who plays, when they play, and when and where he's getting aggressive or not. Sure, you can question his playcalls, but we do that for every playcaller, and anyone saying otherwise is simply trying to sell a narrative. Not everyone is 100% with that many playcalls. 

Kyle Shanahan has warts. Kyle Shanahan has things he's very good at (like offensive schemes). The 49ers have a lot of talented players that he gets the bulk of credit for in acquiring...the 49ers also have a number of holes and have made a number of poor roster decisions that he gets a lot of the blame for. 

[Dr A W Niloc]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

2. The point was never arguing that he's been a key in assembling the team.

      Good, because option #2 would have been tedious. 

     Option #1 only requires that we show the final result.  You spoke of hits and misses.  Hits [and their absence] are what matter.  No one is defined by their misses (e.g. Bob Dylan's "Planet Waves") unless they have long term ramifications and remain uncorrected (e.g. wasting three 1st round picks on a backup for Jimmy Garoppolo).  Acquiring 5 clowns before landing a superstar won't beat the Mendoza line but it beats any other GM, wins games, and puts happy butts in seats.

      Normally, we'd compare San Francisco to an average team to show how successful Shanahan has been.  Let's make it as tough as possible, though, by comparing the 49ers to the second best team, New England, position by position.

Tight Ends
George Kittle (PFF:1st) vs Hunter Henry (PFF:16th) = Advantage San Francisco.

Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel (6th) vs You must be joking = Huge Advantage San Francisco.

Running Backs
Eli Mitchell (20th) vs Damien Harris (5th) = Would be advantage New England but both are injured.

O-Line
A push before LT Isaiah Wynn stumbled onto a lost Quaalude stash from the 1980s.  Advantage S.F.

Defense
PFF: 3rd vs 9th, DVOA: 10th vs 2nd = A wash.

    So far, then, at every position where both teams have healthy starters San Francisco is equal to or better than the Patriots.  So why aren't the 49ers undefeated and headed for the Super Bowl?  Because they are execrable at, literally, the pivot position.

Quarterbacks
Jimmy Garoppolo (PFF:21st) vs Mac Jones (PFF:9th) = Advantage New England (and virtually every other playoff contender)

     Kyle has out-acquired Bill Belichick at almost every position other than [RB and] QB.  That is what matters, not the missteps taken along the way. 

Conclusion:  In assembling the best players in the NFL Shanahan has demonstrated an excellent eye for talent, albeit with a blind spot at QB.  QED.

[Forge]

19 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Yeah, uh... something's not right with this system. 

Are you suggesting that Jacksonville doesn't actually have a better offense  than Buffalo like these numbers tell me they do? 

[ET80]

3 hours ago, Forge said:

23 hours ago, notthatbluestuff said:

Yeah, uh... something's not right with this system. 

Are you suggesting that Jacksonville doesn't actually have a better offense  than Buffalo like these numbers tell me they do? 

Texans have the 8th best defense. Color me surprised.

[Dr A W Niloc]

15 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Texans have the 8th best defense. Color me surprised.

8th best defensive players.  13th in DVOA as a unit, only slightly underperforming, given the coaching.

[notthatbluestuff]

4 hours ago, Forge said:

Are you suggesting that Jacksonville doesn't actually have a better offense  than Buffalo like these numbers tell me they do? 

Trevor Lawrence = first overall. Josh Allen = seventh overall. 

Makes sense to me. 

[notthatbluestuff]

15 minutes ago, Dr A W Niloc said:

8th best defensive players.  13th in DVOA as a unit, only slightly underperforming, given the coaching.

And the Patriots clearly have the more talented group of players on offense than the Packers, Chiefs, Chargers, Bengals, Cardinals etc.