Week 17 SNF Vikings @ Packers: Postgame - Packers WIN 37-10, CLINCH #1 seed!

[Packerraymond]

12 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

it's all about the predictive quality of blowouts vs other "wins".  Wins are not wins when it comes to looking forward.  Of course wins are wins when you look back to determine seeding, etc.

 

I don't think the packers have "close wins" but for some reason you want to hold 42 point wins against the Dallas Cowboys?  Past shows that 42 point wins are worth a lot when you look towards the future success of those teams.  Point differential absolutely does matter, and a lack of point differential in the packers favor could indicate that this team is overrated relative to their W-L record.

 

One thing working FOR the packers is their extremely slow pace of play.  Winning by 14 is more of a blowout when there are 3-4 fewer drives per game than other games in the NFL.

I don't really buy this.  Every team has had equal or worse covid issues than GB has.  It's affecting the league pretty evenly across the board.  Point taken about sample size, and obviously we could buck the trend, but the trend on a per-play basis right now is that the Packers have a bad defense.  Given the data we do have, I'd say it's "more likely than not" the packers have a bad defense.

 

So what evidence do we have that this Packers defense is even average?  Their per-drive stats are bad, and the main reason the points allowed stats are average is the fact that they have faced far fewer drives from opponents.

 

Compared to Dallas - GB has faced 30! fewer drives as a defense, but are surrendering 0.5 more points/drive.  They are hidden and protected by a ball-control oriented efficient offense that doesn't turn the ball over.

I don't think blowing out a Covid-ridden Washington team, or a quitting on their coach Panthers team means a damn thing for playoff success. 

 

Also, to your 2nd paragraph, the Packers are 5th in the NFL in points per play allowed, at home. This has been a top 10 defense all year at home, whose cumulative stats are ruined by awful performances in Jacksonville and Minnesota.  They are 14th in YPP allowed, top 5 in QBR, what stat do you have to show they aren't at least average ??

[skibrett15]

8 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I don't think blowing out a Covid-ridden Washington team, or a quitting on their coach Panthers team means a damn thing for playoff success. 

 

Also, to your 2nd paragraph, the Packers are 5th in the NFL in points per play allowed, at home. This has been a top 10 defense all year at home, whose cumulative stats are ruined by awful performances in Jacksonville and Minnesota.  They are 14th in YPP allowed, top 5 in QBR, what stat do you have to show they aren't at least average ??

21st in DVOA, 22nd in points/drive allowed

[Packerraymond]

10 minutes ago, skibrett15 said:

21st in DVOA, 22nd in points/drive allowed

Imagine these are heavily skewed by NO game.

[skibrett15]

8 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

Imagine these are heavily skewed by NO game.

Looks like we'd be below baltimore and above SF at 18th in points/drive.  DVOA already heavily discounts week 1.

[coachbuns]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

it's all about the predictive quality of blowouts vs other "wins".  Wins are not wins when it comes to looking forward.  Of course wins are wins when you look back to determine seeding, etc.

 

I don't think the packers have "close wins" but for some reason you want to hold 42 point wins against the Dallas Cowboys?  Past shows that 42 point wins are worth a lot when you look towards the future success of those teams.  Point differential absolutely does matter, and a lack of point differential in the packers favor could indicate that this team is overrated relative to their W-L record.

 

One thing working FOR the packers is their extremely slow pace of play.  Winning by 14 is more of a blowout when there are 3-4 fewer drives per game than other games in the NFL.

I don't really buy this.  Every team has had equal or worse covid issues than GB has.  It's affecting the league pretty evenly across the board.  Point taken about sample size, and obviously we could buck the trend, but the trend on a per-play basis right now is that the Packers have a bad defense.  Given the data we do have, I'd say it's "more likely than not" the packers have a bad defense.

 

So what evidence do we have that this Packers defense is even average?  Their per-drive stats are bad, and the main reason the points allowed stats are average is the fact that they have faced far fewer drives from opponents.

 

Compared to Dallas - GB has faced 30! fewer drives as a defense, but are surrendering 0.5 more points/drive.  They are hidden and protected by a ball-control oriented efficient offense that doesn't turn the ball over.

Who has Dallas played vs Gb has played?  The defense has went downhill from what middle of the season.  However, they've had the 4th most injury games, 4th toughest schedule and played a ton of playoff teams.  I don't put much credence in a lot of "stats" ... I put more into a win loss record ... 12-3 rocks for me.  

[Cpdaly23]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

I don't really buy this.  Every team has had equal or worse covid issues than GB has.  It's affecting the league pretty evenly across the board.  Point taken about sample size, and obviously we could buck the trend, but the trend on a per-play basis right now is that the Packers have a bad defense.  Given the data we do have, I'd say it's "more likely than not" the packers have a bad defense.

Two things-

First, I’m sorry, but your statement “every team has had equal or worse COVID issues” is purely anecdotal, yet you state it as fact.  I would be interested in seeing the data on this that accounts for impact/quality of players missing time, given that we’ve lost each of our best 3 players to COVID in 3 different games. 

Secondly, that wasn’t even the point I was making.  The point I was making is that because of the heavy impact of COVID for ALL teams, using data that historically points to playoff success is less relevant because the game to game variance re: availability is higher. 

Edited December 29, 2021 by Cpdaly23

[coachbuns]

1 hour ago, skibrett15 said:

21st in DVOA, 22nd in points/drive allowed

Those are "nice" stats .. 12-3 is what matters.

[LLcheesehead12]

The way I see this game coming down is we win so long as we cash in on opportunities which I know we'll have a chance at.

1st meeting we had em but missed or caught bad breaks.  Example being 2nd TD Vikes TD happened because that phantom roughing the passer penalty got called against P Smith I think it was that wiped out a should be interception and kept their drive going.  And of course Savage dropped 2 interceptions including the one that happened just under the 2 min warning which would have definitely given us the game winning opportunity.

Got a feeling Cousins will give us some more of those this game and this time we gotta cash em.  I also got a feeling this might look a bit like our last game vs the Bears with them having a small lead at the half, but we come out like we did vs the Bears and roll em in the 3rd.  Just my feeling.

Edited December 29, 2021 by LLcheesehead12

[HighCalebR]

6 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Those are "nice" stats .. 12-3 is what matters.

And then there were last years Steelers. Disproving W/L numbers are all that matters.

[LLcheesehead12]

And we now know one thing .... Weather calling for 2 degrees Fahrenheit temps this game.  Gonna be cold as hell out there.

[FAH1223]

 

 

[Striker]

43 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Those are "nice" stats .. 12-3 is what matters.

Stats aren't the end all be all, but the advanced metrics can tell us a lot.

The 2011 Packers were 15-1 and were 26th in DVOA.

The 2010 Packers were 10-6 and were 2nd in DVOA.

No team that has won the Super Bowl in the 2000s has had a DVOA worse than 14 (the '07 Giants). 18 of those teams were in the top 10.

This year's Packers team *could* be the outlier, but there are some pretty big warning signs right now. The biggest problem would be their 31st DVOA run defense.

[Packerraymond]

4 minutes ago, Striker said:

Stats aren't the end all be all, but the advanced metrics can tell us a lot.

The 2011 Packers were 15-1 and were 26th in DVOA.

The 2010 Packers were 10-6 and were 2nd in DVOA.

No team that has won the Super Bowl in the 2000s has had a DVOA worse than 14 (the '07 Giants). 18 of those teams were in the top 10.

This year's Packers team *could* be the outlier, but there are some pretty big warning signs right now. The biggest problem would be their 31st DVOA run defense.

This team is in the top 10 of DVOA, top 8 of weighted DVOA (which excludes week 1), they would not be an outlier. 

[R T]

Not sure if this has been noted here, but Adam Thielen who is normally a pain in the Packers *** had surgery on an ankle and is out for the season. 

[packfanfb]

57 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Those are "nice" stats .. 12-3 is what matters.

The Aaron Rodgers Effect.