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Divisional Round: 49ers @ Packers: Postgame - Packers lose 13-10, season ends due to worst STs in history!


FAH1223

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  1. 1. You nervous?



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33 minutes ago, Norm said:

Your reply was better. But I still want to see him defend this take lol

Ray's logic is sound. He's saying that Deebo averages 12yds more per catch than run, so letting him run is statistically better for defense than letting him catch. 

i.e. the fewer routes he's running, the better for opponents

(YPT would be a better comparison than YPC tho)

 

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That would be kinda awesome for the Trey Lance legacy to come in and beat the #1-seeded Packers and Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau.  

He is VERY fast.  Not MVS, but in pads I think I'd bet on his speed over most of our other wide receivers.  

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3 hours ago, Green19 said:

Rumors is now Jimmy G won’t start Saturday. 
 

 

This dude is a troll....take this with less than a grain of salt. Shanny has already said Jimmy is a go to practice all week. 

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2 hours ago, {Family Ghost} said:

Yeah. but the Packers would be wise to prepare for Lance as well ... I wouldn't put it past Shady Shanny to have some next level packages in there for Lance.  They are going to pull out all the stops after seeing the clown show the Packers put on film at Detroit.

I wouldn't even worry about it. Its really not a thing. They did do it in that first game out of desperation to score at the end of the half, but Shanny has rebelled against Lance seeing the field as much as possible this year. Didn't even let him meet with the press for most of the year lol. He's trying ot lock that dude down. 

Kyle made his bed and that's riding and dying with Jimmy for this year. 

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On 1/17/2022 at 6:17 AM, Packerraymond said:

We've allowed one 100 yard rusher this year. Most of our damage is from mobile QBs. 

way too many of you in this forum rely on simple antiquated stats like "yards". you can't seriously think we're a good rush defense because of what you just cited. part of the reason we haven't allowed many 100 yard rushers is because we get ahead on the scoreboard and force teams to pass. but that doesn't mean we're a good rush defense. in fact, we're still soft as **** which has been my criticism of this franchise for years

advanced metrics like DVOA and EPA paint a very different picture. as i said previously, Packers are 28th in rush defense DVOA. SF is 5th in rush offense DVOA. in week 3, they weren't even using Deebo Samuel like they are now. they're lining him up in the backfield and he's been destroying defenses. in week 3 they had Trey Sermon instead of Elijah Mitchell. just throw week 3 out bruh, we are getting a very different team here

here is EPA for rush defense, for both teams

the Niners are terrific against the run, rush EPA/play allowed of -0.15 which is elite, up there with the Saints as the best

the Packers are one of the worst teams against the run, rush EPA/play allowed of -0.01 that's as bad as the Chargers and Giants

it's going to come down to winning in the trenches like it usually does in the playoffs and i am seriously concerned they're going to whoop our ***. again. 

 

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On 1/17/2022 at 6:20 AM, spilltray said:

You are conveniently ignoring that the Packers strengths are a worse matchup for them and focusing only on the other direction.

that is categorically false. the biggest mismatch is our rush D against their rush O. 

and concerningly, DVOA actually has the Niners as the better team overall. 

Team DVOA: SF 6th, GB 9th

Offense DVOA: SF 5th, GB 2nd. Pass O: SF 5th, GB 2nd. Rush O: SF 5th, GB 8th

Defense DVOA: SF 7th, GB 22nd. Pass D : SF  16th, GB 15th. Rush D : SF 2nd, GB 28th 

at least we're both ****ty on special teams. SF 26th, GB 32nd lol 

Edited by persiandud
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42 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Ray's logic is sound. He's saying that Deebo averages 12yds more per catch than run, so letting him run is statistically better for defense than letting him catch. 

i.e. the fewer routes he's running, the better for opponents

(YPT would be a better comparison than YPC tho)

 

I don't think you understand how football works

Edited by Norm
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6 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I know I don't.

But I know how math works! :)

I'm not a nerd but isn't this all dependent on how often he actually catches a pass. Like if he only catches one every 5 pass attempts by the team, that's worse than 5 runs. Am I doing this right?

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RichRymanPG -  One secondary seller says this is the highest-selling playoff game it's experienced. About 15% of buyers are from California, 45% from Wisconsin.

A bit of a clarification. The secondary market seller has sold more tickets for this game than for any Packers playoff game before. As opposed to any playoff game period.

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