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Divisional Round GDT - Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers


J-ALL-DAY

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19 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

For sure, but that team just did better at not killing itself with stupid mistakes. There  is a reason this team had to sweat it out to make the playoffs lol.

It's actually weirdly crazy how similar the two offenses functioned between the two years. 

2019 / 2021: 

6.0 / 6.1 yards per play

41 total offensive penalties:  19 False Starts,  20 Holding  + 2 OPI //// 40 total offensive penalties: 19 False Starts, 19 Holding + 2 OPI lol (I didn't include delays because I'm not sure how many are by design)

Turnovers: 23 / 24

183 drives / 182 drives

Sacks allowed: 36 / 33 

YPC: 4.6 / 4.3 

NY/A: 7.4 / 7.7 (8.4 & 8.6 yards per attempt on the front end before accounting for sacks) 

3rd down conversion: 44.3% / 40.5%

4th down conversion: 58% / 50% ( 7 for 12 in 2019, 10 for 20 this year)

Redzone TD rate: 55.56% / 67% 

Yards per drive: 33 / 34

 

So obviously the third & fourth down conversion is a big difference between the two years, but honestly feels like a solid foundation of timing playing a huge role in the offense this year too. Like, we messed up similarly in 2019, but maybe the timing of when we did wasn't nearly as bad. The 4th down failures would definitely change some things up overall, even in that limited number of attempts. 6 additional failures means no points in those instances, results in punts or what have you. If those 6 failures resulted in 21 more points, it ups our points per drive by .12. Our current points per drive is 2.29 and our 2019 points per drive was 2.42. So 21 more points from 6 4th down conversions puts us right in line with 2019 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Forge said:

It's actually weirdly crazy how similar the two offenses functioned between the two years. 

2019 / 2021: 

6.0 / 6.1 yards per play

41 total offensive penalties:  19 False Starts,  20 Holding  + 2 OPI //// 40 total offensive penalties: 19 False Starts, 19 Holding + 2 OPI lol (I didn't include delays because I'm not sure how many are by design)

Turnovers: 23 / 24

183 drives / 182 drives

Sacks allowed: 36 / 33 

YPC: 4.6 / 4.3 

NY/A: 7.4 / 7.7 (8.4 & 8.6 yards per attempt on the front end before accounting for sacks) 

3rd down conversion: 44.3% / 40.5%

4th down conversion: 58% / 50% ( 7 for 12 in 2019, 10 for 20 this year)

Redzone TD rate: 55.56% / 67% 

Yards per drive: 33 / 34

So obviously the third & fourth down conversion is a big difference between the two years, but honestly feels like a solid foundation of timing playing a huge role in the offense this year. Like, we messed up similarly in 2019, but maybe the timing of when we did wasn't nearly as bad. The 4th down failures would definitely change some things up overall, even in that limited number of attempts. 

Good breakdown! 

Also I guess it matters where the team was killing itself. This team is great in the RZ and better than 2019, but may not have been as good from the 50-35 yard line if that makes any sense.

Either way, can't agree with Packers fans saying the 2019 offense was much better. 

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19 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm concerned that this Packers team is just going to spam slot fade after slot fade against us. 

Oh for sure. It's our weakness and the fade is Rodger's best throw. We will for sure give up at least 1 chunk play to a slot fade and at least 1 TD as well. 

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23 minutes ago, Forge said:

I'm concerned that this Packers team is just going to spam slot fade after slot fade against us. 

If Ryans goes to single high on money downs? Absolutely, it's the play to go to. But that's why he will need to be smart with his blitzes and will need to zone up and play as much two man as possible. The front HAS to stop the run without a extra defender or else we are in big trouble. 

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11 minutes ago, J-ALL-DAY said:

Bold prediction for tomorrow's game? Deebo returns a kick for over 40 yards at some point in the game!

Ah crap, I didn't even think about kickoffs. With how cold it is, the ball won't travel as far. Wish can barely make it to the 10 yard line on kickoffs. He'll be lucky if he can get it to the 20 tomorrow night. 😑

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4 minutes ago, NinerNation21 said:

Ah crap, I didn't even think about kickoffs. With how cold it is, the ball won't travel as far. Wish can barely make it to the 10 yard line on kickoffs. He'll be lucky if he can get it to the 20 tomorrow night. 😑

I do believe their Special Teams are statistically worse than ours....?

Hoping that plays out true. 

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15 minutes ago, Chrissooner49er said:

I do believe their Special Teams are statistically worse than ours....?

Hoping that plays out true. 

I hope so. Two bad special teams units clashing in bitterly cold weather that will make the football sink like a rock in the night sky - what could go wrong??

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