Random Thoughts - 2022 Jan - to the Draft

[Bigbear72]

39 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t think that to get to the level I set would need to have everyone “playing out of their minds.” It would require injury luck, for Fields and Mooney especially. For sure. But 4,100 yards from Fields is only 241/game over 17 games. Far from outrageous. Assume 7.2 yards per attempt (16th in the league in 2021) and you get to 4,100 yards from 569 attempts. Those pieces we have already on hand (Mooney, Pringle, Kmet, Montgomery, Herbert, Griffin, St. Brown, Newsome & Horsted) combined for 2,937 yards last year on 427 total targets. If you get the exact same from them in 2022 collectively, nothing more or less, then you need to get 1,163 yards from the remaining 142 targets to get to 4,100 yards.

Expecting an exact replication is flawed though, because of the amount of variables involved in circumstance, role, etc. If Fields is making a big step as is the hypothetical I proposed though, efficiency should improve even if the players themselves don’t. So let’s look at 2021 player receiving efficiency (yards per target) among the expected known primary targets:

-Mooney 7.53

-Pringle 9.47

-Kmet 6.58

-Montgomery 5.90

-Griffin 6.21

Assume some but not huge growth from Mooney and Kmet (leaving Nagy’s offense, Fields improving, scheme adjustment to have far less short stop routes) and some regression from Pringle (shift from WR3 to WR2 and away from Mahomes) and say it’s this in 2022: 

-Mooney 8.00

-Pringle 7.75

-Kmet 7.00

-Montgomery 6.00

-Griffin 6.21

Figure Mooney at 140 targets, Pringle and Kmet each at 100, Monty 70 and Griffin 30 and you get: 

-Mooney 1120

-Pringle 775

-Kmet 700

-Montgomery 420

-Griffin 186

That’s 3,201 yards across 440 total targets, leaving 899 yards to come from 129 targets spread across RB2-3 and WR3-5 to get Fields to 4,100. We got 781 yards from Goodwin/Byrd/Grant last year on 93 targets and nobody would classify any of them as anything above replacement level, so getting that from a rookie WR3, a mystery vet/rookie at WR4 one reasonably assumes we will add between now and August plus Herbert isn’t at all far fetched.

The assumption here is health, and it’s a big one no doubt, but that would be the case no matter who our top targets were.

Now, what does that mean for overall team success? Who knows.

I hear what you are saying but wasn't there an exact assumption like this after 2018 with Tru? Let me assure you that it was. What we work out in our head sometimes (translated as "a lot of time") as fans is not as reasonable or as simple as it may sound. Those players had the numbers that they had in their own respective systems that they came from. We don't know what this offense will look like and can only assume that we do. Remember that time that we got a coach that didn't call plays prior to arriving here that came from a super dynamic offense and we assumed that it would translate to success here? So, again, until we know what the final roster will look like, based only off of what is there currently, I stand by what I said. I will be pleasantly surprised if I am wrong (and I hope that I am).

[JAF-N72EX]

12 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

We talk so much about the low expectations given the apparent books-clearing “rebuild year”. We almost never look at the other end of the spectrum:

What if Fields makes a big jump in 2022?

Most here probably believe Fields is capable of a big jump. He clearly has elite physical tools and the right work ethic, and his intangibles seem to be very strong. What if a jump happens now, despite the rebuild year? I’m not talking a Burrow-like year 2, but what if he’s, say, 4100/28/12 next year with rushing value? That’s all roughly in the 10-15 range statistically as a passer. Derek Carr-ish. 

I guess what I’m asking is, if Fields shows himself to be a fully legit, above average starter in 2022, what do you see as the 2022 ceiling for this team?

In the end, this team doesn't enough talent to have any other expectation but low.

Good coaching and good QB play can only mask so many flaws for so long before the lack of talent rears it's ugly head.

[Bigbear72]

6 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

In the end, this team doesn't enough talent to have any other expectation but low.

Good coaching and good QB play can only mask so many flaws for so long before the lack of talent rears it's ugly head.

Need we point to the the 2020 Houston Texans WITH Watson almost throwing for 5000 yards and still only going 4-12? 4100 yards does not necessarily translate to 7-8 wins. 

[JAF-N72EX]

5 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

Need we point to the the 2020 Houston Texans WITH Watson almost throwing for 5000 yards and still only going 4-12? 4100 yards does not necessarily translate to 7-8 wins. 

Or Stafford in Detroit for over a decade.

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Bigbear72 said:

I hear what you are saying but wasn't there an exact assumption like this after 2018 with Tru? Let me assure you that it was. What we work out in our head sometimes (translated as "a lot of time") as fans is not as reasonable or as simple as it may sound. Those players had the numbers that they had in their own respective systems that they came from. We don't know what this offense will look like and can only assume that we do. Remember that time that we got a coach that didn't call plays prior to arriving here that came from a super dynamic offense and we assumed that it would translate to success here? So, again, until we know what the final roster will look like, based only off of what is there currently, I stand by what I said. I will be pleasantly surprised if I am wrong (and I hope that I am).

 

18 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

In the end, this team doesn't enough talent to have any other expectation but low.

Good coaching and good QB play can only mask so many flaws for so long before the lack of talent rears it's ugly head.

 

9 minutes ago, Bigbear72 said:

Need we point to the the 2020 Houston Texans WITH Watson almost throwing for 5000 yards and still only going 4-12? 4100 yards does not necessarily translate to 7-8 wins. 

I don’t disagree with any of that, though I will point out Fields’ potential is waaaaaaaaaay higher than Mitch’s ever was. And I don’t have high expectations either nor would I suggest anyone should. I am just asking what people think the potential upside of this roster is for 2022 if things go plausibly favorably. 

[Bigbear72]

3 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

 

 

I don’t disagree with any of that, though I will point out Fields’ potential is waaaaaaaaaay higher than Mitch’s ever was. And I don’t have high expectations either nor would I suggest anyone should. I am just asking what people think the potential upside of this roster is for 2022 if things go plausibly favorably. 

I don't disagree with this. He could become a truly dynamic generational talent or he could become RGIII. I am hoping for the best for sure. I think that the roster does need a major boost though and I think it will get that. I'm just not sure it will happen this season. A lot of things have to align to get the results that you are talking about though. Or the coaching staff will have to have become one of the greatest ever assembled. 

[JAF-N72EX]

1 minute ago, AZBearsFan said:

I don’t disagree with any of that, though I will point out Fields’ potential is waaaaaaaaaay higher than Mitch’s ever was. And I don’t have high expectations either nor would I suggest anyone should. I am just asking what people think the potential upside of this roster is for 2022 if things go plausibly favorably. 

Best case scenerio, Olave falls and Poles hits on 3 other draft picks who make a significant contribution this year. The coaching staff gets the most out of the OL. Fields steps up and elevates the rest of the offense. Mooney has a break out year with 1500 yards like Tyreek did in his 3rd year (this could actually happen). Combine all of this with a deep backfield and we could see a good offense with plenty of room to grow.

The trouble would still be on the other side of the ball. Best case scenario, Eberflus is a genius on the defensive side of the ball with the uncanny ability to make even the most below average player look capable.

 

 

[Sugashane]

5 hours ago, Bigbear72 said:

I think that in order for that to happen as the roster currently is constructed (I hope it will get better but at the moment I can't count on that being the case), there would have to be very few injuries and EVERYONE would have to absolutely play out of their minds. I just don't think think that will be the case. I think we will have a top 10 pick in the draft next year and I believe that Poles thinks so too.

Definitely. AZ just asked about the ceiling with a big jump for Fields so pretty much perfect health is implied.  

Once Mack was traded I fully believed we are drafting top 10 next year. 

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

3 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Best case scenerio,

What's the worst case scenario?  We get like 4 wins, both phases look inept, and either because of injury or just total offensive disaster we don't know if Fields is any good?

It's crazy to me that we had a QB here for four years, and he didn't play for a year after he left, and somehow the media and fans are treating him like his stock is rising because he was in such a bad situation. 

I hope we never do that again, whether it's coaching wise or terribly deficient talent around him.  The latter is what I'm concerned with this year, as it's quite, uh, bold, to go into a draft with holes at WR1, WR3, OG, question marks at BOTH tackles... I mean, we have a nice RB room, what else is good on offense?  They have a plan, I understand that,  I'm just saying the plan would be more sound if there wasn't this huge question mark about whether Fields is going to be any good, and I feel like you can punt on the year as a team but it's extremely risky to punt away a year of a young QB and possibly end the year in the same spot you started. All the cap space in the world doesn't help if you don't either have QB settled, or a super strong team in all other respects.  I feel like we're closer to the former, but really have no idea.  Also, the spring weather in Chicago is BULL**** and I didn't vote for this many 35-45 degree days in a month. They are USELESS. 

[dll2000]

Here is a possible positive.

Sometimes you get a bunch of young guys playing and nobody told them they were supposed to stink and be irrelevant until some future date and they surprise everyone.  

It’s rare, but it happens.  

[CWood21]

21 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

Best case scenerio, Olave falls and Poles hits on 3 other draft picks who make a significant contribution this year.

Seems incredibly optimistic that Olave is going to fall to the Bears' pick.  I think there's a slightly above zero percent chance that happens.  Think a trade up is almost certainly going to have to happen in order to get Olave.  Think it's going to either take both SRPs or a future FRP to get it done.

[AZBearsFan]

39 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Seems incredibly optimistic that Olave is going to fall to the Bears' pick.  I think there's a slightly above zero percent chance that happens.  Think a trade up is almost certainly going to have to happen in order to get Olave.  Think it's going to either take both SRPs or a future FRP to get it done.

Agreed. I think there’s a far better chance Olave goes in the top 10 than there is that he gets anywhere near the 2nd round. 

[CWood21]

Just now, AZBearsFan said:

Agreed. I think there’s a far better chance Olave goes in the top 10 than there is that he gets anywhere near the 2nd round. 

WRs have a habit of going in bunches in the draft, so it seems likely that when the first WR goes off the board the next few will follow them.  I think we're looking at potentially Atlanta at 8, NY Jets at 10, and Washington at 11 as being the first teams to really consider taking a WR.

[WindyCity]

12 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

WRs have a habit of going in bunches in the draft, so it seems likely that when the first WR goes off the board the next few will follow them.  I think we're looking at potentially Atlanta at 8, NY Jets at 10, and Washington at 11 as being the first teams to really consider taking a WR.

I think we will see 2 runs.

1 starts around 8 with Jameson.

The other starts at the back end of 1 with the Packers or Chiefs lighting the fuse.

[AZBearsFan]

 

Dude, Kmet is JACKED. Fields is 6’3” 228 lb and looks like a kid next to him.