GB free agency 2022

[squire12]

4 minutes ago, Les Punting said:

Produce like a WR2? I think there's reason to doubt he'll produce proportionally with significantly more opportunities. Cobb was more productive per target, would he have gone off for 70/1000/12 on 100 targets? 

I doubt it.

Targets/gm is mostly a conscious decision by the play-caller, based on the perceived value of targeting that player relative to the other options. Lazard has received ~4 targets/gm for three straight years under MLF.

Adams' unusually high target share says more about Lazard/MVS than anything else. If MLF thought he could get comparable efficiency by spreading the ball around more, he'd do it and happily reap the benefits of that balance. Instead, he's fed Adams ~45% of the WR targets, exactly 10/gm, three years running. Even when MVS missed a stretch of games this year, Lazard still got his customary 4 targets/gm. 

With GB likely to draft an elite prospect and sign a quality free agent, Lazard will be right back to vying with Jones and Tonyan as the 3rd receiving option, to the tune of ~4 targets/gm.   

So MLF was throwing passes?  Who knew

[coachbuns]

3 hours ago, hitnhope said:

I hope you all are right about him.  I don't see it at all.   

Time for glasses or contacts?

 

[coachbuns]

15 minutes ago, Les Punting said:

Produce like a WR2? I think there's reason to doubt he'll produce proportionally with significantly more opportunities. Cobb was more productive per target, would he have gone off for 70/1000/12 on 100 targets? 

I doubt it.

Targets/gm is mostly a conscious decision by the play-caller, based on the perceived value of targeting that player relative to the other options. Lazard has received ~4 targets/gm for three straight years under MLF.

Adams' unusually high target share says more about Lazard/MVS than anything else. If MLF thought he could get comparable efficiency by spreading the ball around more, he'd do it and happily reap the benefits of that balance. Instead, he's fed Adams ~45% of the WR targets, exactly 10/gm, three years running. Even when MVS missed a stretch of games this year, Lazard still got his customary 4 targets/gm. 

With GB likely to draft an elite prospect and sign a quality free agent, Lazard will be right back to vying with Jones and Tonyan as the 3rd receiving option, to the tune of ~4 targets/gm.   

If those other 2 you are suggesting get the job done .. I don't care if Lazard is their #3 wr.  If that's the case, the offense with those 3 wr and Tonyan will rock.

[hitnhope]

1 hour ago, coachbuns said:

Time for glasses or contacts?

 

Aren't you the witty one.  How long did it take you to come up with that sharp retort.

Again- maybe you need to take off the green goggles. 

[coachbuns]

1 hour ago, hitnhope said:

Aren't you the witty one.  How long did it take you to come up with that sharp retort.

Again- maybe you need to take off the green goggles. 

Chill man .. just funnin ya.  

[craig]

5 hours ago, OzPackfan said:

Sorry late getting back to this. Unless we are getting a premium draft pick there is no benefit to trading Jordan Love this year.  Any pre June 1st trade would cost us 731k in cap space (the 94k we save on Love - the 825k for the replacement player in the top 51). Any post June 1 trade would save us 910k (the 1.735m we save on Love - the 825k for the replacement player in the top 51)

Thanks, that confirms my take.  Cap is pretty much a non-factor in trading Love.  You don't get any meaningful saving if you do, but neither do you get any significant cap penalty.  So any hypothetical trade of Love would be based on valuing what the return was, undistracted by cap factors.  

[craig]

4 hours ago, Les Punting said:

...Targets/gm is mostly a conscious decision by the play-caller, based on the perceived value of targeting that player relative to the other options. Lazard has received ~4 targets/gm for three straight years under MLF....

Agree. 

A secondary factor is conscious decision by the defensive play-callers.  Coaches have freedom to apply their defensive resources on the players they fear/respect the most.  I do admit a certain fear that for Lazard, Cobb, and also for MVS (if we hypothetically sign him), that each of those guys are players who can be defended kind of well, *if* a defense prioritizes doing so.  "Take what the defense gives you" is a famous cliche.  I wonder if some of the MVS/Lazard production has been on a matchup-dependent, "take-what-the-defense-gives-you" basis. 

If Gute elects to re-sign MVS, I'm totally fine with high-draft-pick plus running it back with MVS-Lazard-Cobb-Winfree/Rodgers.  If Gute hits on his pick, you've got a shot.  

[PackFan13]

9 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Explain to me how Lazard is athletically limited but Davante isn't?

Who saying davante isn't somewhat pedestrian athletically ? Elite route running and the ability to get off the line make up for it, as you know. 

Edited March 21, 2022 by PackFan13

[PackFan13]

9 hours ago, squire12 said:

Lazard is 88th percentile in ht/wt adjust speed.....yet lacks athleticism 

How many 6'5" wrs are even in the league? 5?  He's huge with powerful legs but his agility and speed is clearly lacking. He's a slightly slower marques colston. He's in a te frame but 30 pounds lighter.

[Sandy]

3 minutes ago, PackFan13 said:

How many 6'5" wrs are even in the league? 5?  He's huge with powerful legs but his agility and speed is clearly lacking. He's a slightly slower marques colston. He's in a te frame but 30 pounds lighter.

Spot on. This is where obsessing over things like RAS scores without taking any context gets people in trouble.

Lazard is fast...for a big guy. But he has average NFL speed for a WR. He also hasn't shown significant improvement in actual receiving skills over the last three seasons despite more field time. I remember being excited when he was on the field for the first few times and seeing him make flashy plays, but three years later he's still just showing flashes. Whether it's from his T-Rex arms or stiff shoulders or average at best route running, he's seemed to have stagnated as what he is.

Not that it isn't a very serviceable offensive piece. He really is an effective receiver, a superlative blocker, and I'm glad we have him back for another year at least. It's looking more and more like a committee this season at WR and he can easily be one of the biggest contributors to that mix, possibly even flirting with 1000 yards. But unless he shows sudden improvement that he hasn't shown in the last three seasons, he lacks the actual skill for the position to ever be more than a second or third option in a typical offense, despite that athleticism compared to his size.

[AlexGreen#20]

1 hour ago, PackFan13 said:

Who saying davante isn't somewhat pedestrian athletically ? Elite route running and the ability to get off the line make up for it, as you know. 

Of the top ten receivers in yards this year, exactly one ran faster than 4.4 flat. This idea that anybody who isn't a 4.25 guy is athletically limited is ridiculous.

Being a 4.5 guy (especially one with a basketball background, not a track one) is not limiting for receivers. 

[AlexGreen#20]

8 hours ago, Les Punting said:

Targets/gm is mostly a conscious decision by the play-caller, based on the perceived value of targeting that player relative to the other options. Lazard has received ~4 targets/gm for three straight years under MLF.

Adams' unusually high target share says more about Lazard/MVS than anything else. If MLF thought he could get comparable efficiency by spreading the ball around more, he'd do it and happily reap the benefits of that balance. 

I think we've seen that second paragraph isn't true. Cooper Kupp ate a higher percentage of targets this year than Davante in a very similar offense. 

Davante is a phenomenal player and one Rodgers is extremely comfortable with. A TON of Davante's receptions were bubble screens or RPO stuff. Those are targets and receptions that don't really require any skill or ability. Davante's ADOT the last two years has been 8.9 and 9.6 vs 10.0 and 10.9 for Lazard. 

Adding 1.5 receptions for 12 yards to Lazard's game this year on nothing but those layup receptions brings him up to a line of:

82.5 targets/62.5 receptions/693 yards and that's only playing 15 games rather than 17.

[PackFan13]

33 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Of the top ten receivers in yards this year, exactly one ran faster than 4.4 flat. This idea that anybody who isn't a 4.25 guy is athletically limited is ridiculous.

Being a 4.5 guy (especially one with a basketball background, not a track one) is not limiting for receivers. 

When did I say you have to run a 4.2 to not be limited athletically? I never said Adams was limited by his athleticism either he's simply average on paper when it comes to his peers which makes him that much more impressive. It's the entire package that makes him special, mainly the route running and first step which I agree is more important than his long speed or 40 yard dash. 

 

 

[Brit Pack]

Looking and meditating on this over the last few days, priority FA signing now for me has to be a trade for Brandin Cooks. Produced where ever he has been, has been pretty consistently healthy, right age in terms of being a vet savvy WR. Has a history of being traded and Texans are going nowhere fast, so should be getable.

Julio - played 19 games last two years, Titans had no faith in him after trading a 2nd 
Green - interesting but is 33 years old, 2017 last 1,000 yard season
Fuller - Injured, never hit a 1000 yard season
Landry - probably going back to Cleveland, do we need another slot?
TY Hilton - injured a lot, three years removed from a 1,000 yard season
Watkins - only had one 1,000 yard season, back in 2015, his second year in the league

Then you got a bunch of slot guys like Beasley, Crowder, Wilson etc and no one who has done much

Cooks - 8 year career, 1,000 yard season in 6 of them. Rookie year and 2019 only times he didn't hit a 1,000 yards.

Other trade targets: AJ Brown, Hil, Renfow, Slayton and McLaurin  - don't see their teams moving on from them without a crazy deal. Same could be said for Metcalf plus he'll want paying BIG time. 

Diontae Johnson another interesting name, last year of his deal, maybe at a stretch he might want out of Pitt, asscending player, put up his first 1,000 yard season last year. 

Potential receiving options:
Cooks
MVS
Cobb
Lazard
Amari
High draft pick 

Bobby T
Mid round TE draft pick
 

[rthom348]

7 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Of the top ten receivers in yards this year, exactly one ran faster than 4.4 flat. This idea that anybody who isn't a 4.25 guy is athletically limited is ridiculous.

Being a 4.5 guy (especially one with a basketball background, not a track one) is not limiting for receivers. 

If Davante has one weakness, it’s once he catches the ball in open space, he’s rarely taking it to the house. He’s always getting caught from behind. I’m not a Chris Simms fan or anything but that was always his complaint with Adams. He doesn’t have that extra gear and he’s not great in open space after he has the ball. I do think Adams is a little “limited” athletically in that regard. The main reason he’s so damn good is his release and not much more after that. He doesn’t create any space pulling away from corners if they are lucky enough to match his release. I love Davante. I’ll miss him. However, while we can’t replace him per se, we can still be plenty productive on offense without him.