Would you consider these as HOF Trajectory #'s for an NFL RB (throughout his first 6 years)?

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

First I'll show the statistics of 3 HOF RBs throughout their first 6 years and then I'll post the statistics of my mystery mans first 6 NFL seasons (in comparison).

Emmitt #22 Smith (First 6 Years):

93 games. 

2,007 rushing attempts. 

8,956 rushing yards. 

4.5 yards per carry. 

96 rushing TDs (unheard of). 

301 receptions. 

1,951 receiving yards. 

4 TD Receptions. 

31 Fumbles. 

• 10,907 All-purpose Yards and 100 Offensive TDs @ 4.7 Yards Per Touch. 

+ 

Curtis my favorite Martin (First 6 Years):

92 games played. 

2,010 rushing attempts. 

7,754 rushing yards. 

3.9 yards per carry. 

54 rushing TDs. 

275 receptions. 

2,022 receiving yards. 

8 TD Receptions. 

21 Fumbles. 

• 9,776 All-purpose Yards and 62 Offensive TDs @ 4.3 Yards Per Touch. 

+

Tony Dorsett (First 6 Years):

84 games played. 

1,545 rushing attempts. 

7,015 rushing yards. 

4.5 yards per carry. 

45 rushing TDs. 

201 receptions. 

1,793 receiving yards. 

6 TD Receptions. 

52 Fumbles (wow). 

• 8,808 All-purpose Yards and 51 Offensive TDs @ 5.0 Yards Per Touch. 

+ THE MOMENT WE'VE ALL BEEN WAITING FOR (BELOW)

Mystery Mans (First 6 Years):  

88 games played. 

1,650 rushing attempts. 

7,386 rushing yards. 

4.5 yards per carry. 

56 rushing TDs. 

288 receptions. 

2,244 receiving yards. 

12 TD Receptions. 

22 Fumbles. 

• 9,630 All-purpose Yards and 68 Offensive TDs @ 5.0 Yards Per Touch. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[SkippyX]

You are telegraphing your punches. We all know who this is. The problem is that he hit a bit of a wall last year and its going to be hard for him to keep up his early pace or even a very good pace. He was clearly the 2nd best back on his own team in 2021.

His first 4 years he averaged 1351 yards 15 TDs and 4.6 a carry (kind of like Walter Payton through 5 years)

His last 2 years he averaged 990.5 yards 8 TDs and 4.1 per carry (kind of like DeMarco Murray in Tennessee)

He was an 8.6 ypc guy out of the backfield from years 1-4 and is at 6.3 ypc the last 2 years.

 

So his current pace is not great. He has to set a new better pace to even get to HoVG.

 

[Forge]

There was a time where I would have said Zeke was on a HOF pace, his first 4 years were really good. Even his 6 years is a HOF level pace, I'd argue, but feels like he's already trending downward so I don't know that he's going to have the longevity.

He probably needs 5K more rushing yards, get as close as possible to 100 tds. 

He still has a shot, but again..not sure how much more meat is left on the bone. 

[SkippyX]

To be fair, Edge James is in the hall for years 1,2,6, and 7 so if this guy plays long enough then he should get in for years 1,2,3,and 4 if he hits 12k.

I don't think Edge belongs though so another mistake does not fix the first one.

 

Edited March 2, 2022 by SkippyX

[Forge]

4 minutes ago, SkippyX said:

So his current pace is not great. He has to set a new better pace to even get to HoVG.

 

It's a slightly superior Corey Dillon, I'd say...who had comparable (though slightly inferior) stats his first 6 years and then just gassed. Had one more great year but 3 of his last 4 were not great. 

[Soggust]

I think if he gets to 10k rushing and 80+ TD, he has a pretty good chance as being an outlier in a passing era. 

[SkippyX]

Dillon won a SB with 106 total yards at just under 4.2 a carry, a TD,  and 7.8 per target.

Edge had 61 yards at 3.7 per carry, no TD, and 5.6 per target in a loss.

 

So if 2 extra TDs and 2456 total yards make up for being a 4.0 ypc back instead of 4.3 and playing poorly in a SB loss vs playing well in a SB win then it would make sense for Edge to be in the Hall and Dillon to not be.  In my view both guys are HoVG with Dillon a bit better than Edge.

Edited March 2, 2022 by SkippyX

[SkippyX]

2 very important points.

1- He had 6 lost fumbles in 2020. Even though the team fell apart he was a major contributor to their lack of success.

(could have won 9 instead of 6 maybe but would have won the division at 8 wins (barf))

2- 2021 Zeke and Pollard still combined for 1721 yards rushing at 4.7 a carry, so Dallas did not convert to a pass only offense uplifted by the hero. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by SkippyX

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

Wow I wonder who you could be talking about?

Zeke was a true elite RB for his first 4 seasons. The guy was an absolute terror coming out of the backfield and destroyed my Eagles numerous times. That said it is painfully obvious the heavy workload he endured early has made him lose multiple steps. He doesn't have the finesse/burst to his game that he used to have, he is basically just an athletic power back now which is why his production is quickly slipping.

He is a guy you can count on to contribute now, but not someone who can carry an offense the same way he could earlier in his career. His contract is easily the worst RB contract in football right now(outside of maybe CMAC's just cause the dude never plays).

So do his numbers look like a guy who could end up in the hall right now? Ya. In reality is it going to look like that in 3-4 years... not a chance.

[SkippyX]

You could kind of write of 2020 due to injuries and bad O-line play  (not the fumbling of course)

Zeke does claim to have torn his PCL in week 4 of this year and his splits would support something going wrong for him around then.

He only fumbled once this year.

 

So I'm not ready to write him off but he clearly has to get healthy and play better.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

Ezekiel Elliott previous 3 years:

782 rushing attempts.

3,338 rushing yards. 

4.3 yards per carry. 

28 rushing TDs. 

153 receptions. 

1,045 receiving yards. 

6 TD receptions.

10 fumbles. 

• 935 touches for 4,383 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 34 Offensive TDs @ 4.7 yards per touch. 

Vs . 

Ezekiel Elliott first 3 years:

868 rushing attempts. 

4,048 rushing yards. 

4.7 yards per carry. 

28 rushing TDs. 

135 receptions. 

1,199 receiving yards. 

6 TD receptions. 

12 fumbles. 

• 1,003 touches for 5,247 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 34 Offensive TDs @ 5.2 yards per touch. 

At the end of the day he might've put up better statistics during his 1st 3 years but his last 3 years (in comparison to other NFL RBs) have been absolutely incredible and throughout his first 6 years combined? He's well on his way to top 10 rushing yards All Time + an induction into Pro Football's Hall of Fame. 

Edited March 2, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

✓ I can't seem to find out where he's ranked all time amongst All RBs in Yards from Scrimmage (9,630)

But he's already ranked 58th All-Time in Rushing Yards (7,386) and only only 5,354 rushing yards away from passing Tony Dorsett (12,739) for 10th All-Time.

And it took Tony Dorsett 12 years in comparison to Ezekiel who's only played 6 years thus far and still only 26 years old. 

Trust me when I say over the next 4-5 years we're all going to witness Ezekiel Elliott pass the likes of...

Terrell Davis (56th).

Priest Holmes (46th).

Herschel Walker (43rd). 

Shaun Alexander (36th).

Marshawn Lynch (29th).

Eddie George (28th @ 10,441 rushing yards).

All within the next three years too because he's 3,055 away from 28th All-Time. 

And from there he's going to run down the likes of...

O.J. Simpson (21st).

Thurman Thomas (16th).

Marcus Allen (14th).

Edgerrin James (13th).

Marshall Faulk (12th). 

Jim Brown (11th @ 12,312).

I think he's going to do it and by the time he's only 31 too  because if he only averages 985.2 rushing yards per season over the next 5 years he's going to tie Jim Brown for 11th All-Time. 

This kid is extremely durable he's only missed a career 8 games but only 2 games missed throughout the previous 4 seasons. 

And he's already had seasons of 1,300+, 1,400+ and 1,600+ rushing yards so something's telling me that once Dallas improves their interior O-Line? #21 himself is going to have another 2-3 years of more monster RB seasons moving forward. 

[bmorecareful]

Zeke is clearly no longer the best back on the cowboys and is more name than player at this point… Could he bounce back and be their featured starter again… maybe… but rbs don’t usually have down years this early in their career and come back better as they get older… and with the weight of his contract it’s more likely he ends up on the waiver list than the all pro list.. And I think he would need at least 2-3 more of those to be seriously considered… I mean if he played a major role in extreme team success it would make a difference too… but he is declining statically on a Team that is viewed either as perennial underachievers or perennially overrated… depending on one’s  vantage point on the subject… That doesn’t bode well for the Hall IMO

[Soko]

Stats aren’t enough for a HOF resume, for me. So no. 

Also, hard to extrapolate for running backs given the cliff they usually find themselves falling off of.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

52 minutes ago, bmorecareful said:

Zeke is clearly no longer the best back on the cowboys and is more name than player at this point… 

That's not true. 

We only see Tony Pollard with "fresh legs" because...

2021 Snap Count = Ezekiel Elliott 809 Plays. 

2021 Snap Count = Tony Pollard 374 Plays. 

Tony Pollard is a career backup RB and Ezekiel Elliott is (still) clearly a top 10 NFL RB 

The guy only had 1 fumble all year and also just ranked...

• Top 10 in rushing TDs (6th).

• Top 10 in All-Purpose Offensive RB TDs (6th).

• Top 10 in rushing yards (7th). 

• Top 10 in 1st down runs (8th).

• Top 10 in RB All-Purpose yards (9th) 

• Top 10 in RB receptions (9th). 

He also just ranked 16th amongst all NFL RBs/WRs/TEs in Offensive Yards recorded. 

1.) Jonathan Taylor = 2,171.

2.) Cooper Kupp = 1,965.

3.) Deebo Samuel = 1,770.

4.) Najee Harris = 1,667.

5.) Justin Jefferson = 1,630.

6.) Austin Ekeler = 1,558.

7.) Davante Adams = 1,553.

8.) Joe Mixon = 1,519.

9.) Ja'Marr Chase = 1,476.

10.) Nick Chubb = 1,433.

11.) Dalvin Cook = 1,383.

12.) Mark Andrews = 1,361.

13.) Alvin Kamara = 1,337.

14.) Tyreek Hill = 1,335.

15.) Antonio Gibson = 1,331.

16.) Ezeiel Elliott = 1,289. 

Do you see any other Dallas Cowboys players on this list? Because I don't. Which let's you know that Ezekiel Elliott just ranked #1 in All-Purpose Scrimmage Yards amongst his teammates on an Offensive Attack that ranked #1 in both Offensive Yards (#1) and Points Scored (#1). 

What about guys like and how come the likes of Stefon Diggs, Mike Williams, Mike Evans, Travis Kelce, *Derrick Henry*, D.K. Metcalf, George Kittle, A.J. Brown, Saquon Barkley, *Christian McCaffrey*, Odell Beckham Jr., DeAndre Hopkins, Kyle Pitts, "TONY POLLARD", Diontae Johnson and/or Aaron Jones aren't ranked top 16 in Offensive Yards from Scrimmage but yet Ezekiel Elliott (still) is?

Ezekiel Elliott not the best RB on his roster? I'll agree to disagree.