Would you consider these as HOF Trajectory #'s for an NFL RB (throughout his first 6 years)?

[AlexGreen#20]

Based on your fetish for high volume, mediocre efficiency players, I'm going to assume you have Kobe Bryant rated somewhere stupid like 3rd on your NBA GOAT list. 

[mse326]

If ever there was a position where pace is incredibly misleading it is RB. Because more than any other position they just hit a wall and stop. The best have the longevity. You can't "pace" that

[AZ_Eaglesfan]

4 hours ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

and I don't think anyone or anything can ever change my mind. 

 

Ya….. we know. 

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

4 hours ago, FrantikRam said:

 

Was going to say that there was probably a similar post for Gurley around November of 2018 and then......yea....

What does Todd Gurley have to do with Ezekiel Elliott because we can take this type of talk back to the NCAA playing fields. 

Ezekiel Elliott @ Ohio State (drafted into the NFL 4th overall).

35 games. 592 rushing attempts. 3,961 Rushing Yards. 6.7 yards per carry. 43 rushing TDs. 58 receptions. 449 receiving yards. 1 TD Reception. 

4,410 All-Purpose Scrimmage Yards (44 Offensive TDs).

Vs. 

Todd Gurley @ Georgia (Drafted into the NFL 10th overall).

30 games. 519 rushing attempts. 3,285 rushing yards. 6.4 yards per carry. 36 rushing TDs. 65 receptions. 615 receiving yards. 6 TD Receptions. 

3,900 All-Purpose Scrimmage Yards (42 Offensive TDs).

PS: I really couldn't care less about who had the better NCAA career etc because they both went NFL 1st round (super rare for RBs these days) but I said all of that to say this...

Ezeiel Elliott outside of a wrist injury never got hurt in NCAA college Football but Todd Gurley? Todd Gurley suffered an ACL injury 2014 @ Georgia and then immediately declared for the NFL draft (drafted 2015).

As a fan I never want anything to do with NCAA damaged ACL goods (which is why I'd never want to draft Jameson Williams/John Metchie III/George Pickens) and it's why I was never surprised to see Todd Gurley breakdown so soon once on an NFL playing field (bum ACL). 

• Ezekiel Elliott NFL injury report (below).

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/ezekiel-elliott-player-injuries

Vs. 

• Todd Gurley NFL full injury report (below).

https://www.foxsports.com/nfl/todd-gurley-player-injuries

Just look at all of those knee injury question marks for Todd Gurley (NCAA ACL KNEE INJURY ended up breaking him down and sooner rather than later too; he began to have arthritis of his knee).

I don't think Todd Gurley breaking down has anything to do with Zeke's future because Zeke reminds me more of a Curtis Martin's type of durability back rather than an already NCAA destroyed ACL knee type of Todd Gurley durability. 

✓ Compare Todd Gurley's 5th and 6th NFL years to Ezekiel Elliot's 5th and 6th NFL years and you'll see what I'm talking about because Gurley couldn't make it to a 7th season but Zeke will (and chances are Zeke plays another 6-8 years of solid RB production too).

[WizardHawk]

2 hours ago, mse326 said:

If ever there was a position where pace is incredibly misleading it is RB. Because more than any other position they just hit a wall and stop. The best have the longevity. You can't "pace" that

Amen.  Pace and trajectory or totally useless with RBs. Plenty of the all mighty stats show this as the norm and Elliott has hit or will this season pass the “fall of a cliff” numbers. 

[squire12]

5 hours ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

9 hours ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

and I don't think anyone or anything can ever change my mind. 

 

Ya….. we know

Always the sign that someone is unwilling to actually consider alternatives to their own viewpoint.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

6 hours ago, AZ_Eaglesfan said:

Ya….. we know. 

 

1 hour ago, squire12 said:

Always the sign that someone is unwilling to actually consider alternatives to their own viewpoint.

That Philadelphia Eagles fan was bush league for intentionally misquoting me (to make me look bad, on purpose).

He only misquoted me on...

"and I don't think anyone or anything can ever change my mind".

But he intentionally (bush league) left out my full quote of...

"Imo #20 Barry Sanders is the greatest Running Back of All-Time and I don't think anyone or anything can ever change my mind". 

#20 Barry Sanders imo is G.O.A.T RB of All-Time so please give me an alternative viewpoint on a different RB who was greatest; because what Barry did in Detroit with no O-Line and no QB was absolutely incredible. I've never seen anything like it.

(my generations #1 RB throughout my childhood days).

Barry Sanders dominated throughout his entire 10 year career but my 2nd favorite RB of All-Time is Adrian AP28 Peterson because his first 7 NFL years (before getting suspended for the entire season of 2014) throughout 2007-2013 is (outside of #22) the only RB that I can think of that literally keep up with Barry Sanders during both of their first 7 seasons in the league (statistically speaking).

Edited March 3, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[Tk3]

Everyone else already has this covered - but you're taking 6 years and completely ignoring trajectory. He had a few years that were DEFINITELY a HOF pace, but his last few were not

Player A (first 6 years): 7,386 Rushing, 56 TD, 4.5 YPA, 9,630 Total Scrimmage, 68 Total TD
Player B (first 6 years): 6,797 Rushing, 65 TD, 4.9 YPA, 7,643 Total Scrimmage, 68 Total TD

You would say those players were pretty close.. You could reasonably argue either one as being on a better pace through 6 years, and you could reasonably argue either one would finish at a HOF career

Player A (first 3 years): 4,048 Rushing, 28 TD, 4.7 YPA, 5,247 Total Scrimmage, 34 Total TD
Player A (last 3 years): 3,338 Rushing, 28 TD, 4.3 YPA, 4,383 Total Scrimmage, 34 Total TD

Player B (last 3 years): 2,293 Rushing, 22 TD, 4.6 YPA, 2,665 Total Scrimmage, 23 Total TD
Player B (last 3 years): 4,504 Rushing, 43 TD, 5.0 YPA, 4,978 Total Scrimmage,c45 Total TD

Now with trajectory in mind.. tell me which player is better and how likely either HOF career is?

That's not to say that BOTH can't make the HOF, its certainly possible for both. But the point is to say that looking at a 6 year window can be super misleading when you are comparing a player who is getting worse, versus players who were getting better.

Edited March 3, 2022 by Tk3

[seminoles1]

You repeat yourself a lot.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

Adrian Peterson's 1st 7 years in the league:

103 games.

2,033 rushing attempts. 

10,115 rushing yards. 

5.0 yards per carry. 

86 rushing TDs 

206 receptions. 

1,697 receiving yards. 

5 TD Receptions. 

31 Fumbles. 

• 11,812 All-purpose Yards and 91 Offensive TDs @ 5.3 Yards Per Touch.

Barry Sanders 1st 7 years in the league:

105 games. 

2,077 rushing attempts. 

10,172 rushing yards. 

4.9 yards per carry. 

73 rushing TDs 

258 receptions. 

2,180 receiving yards. 

7 TD Receptions. 

36 Fumbles. 

• 12,352 All-purpose Yards and 80 Offensive TDs @ 5.3 Yards Per Touch.

AP28 was a nightmare.

Edited March 3, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

24 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Everyone else already has this covered - but you're taking 6 years and completely ignoring trajectory. He had a few years that were DEFINITELY a HOF pace, but his last few were not

Player A (first 6 years): 7,386 Rushing, 56 TD, 4.5 YPA, 9,630 Total Scrimmage, 68 Total TD
Player B (first 6 years): 6,797 Rushing, 65 TD, 4.9 YPA, 7,643 Total Scrimmage, 68 Total TD

You would say those players were pretty close.. You could reasonably argue either one as being on a better pace through 6 years, and you could reasonably argue either one would finish at a HOF career

Player A (first 3 years): 4,048 Rushing, 28 TD, 4.7 YPA, 5,247 Total Scrimmage, 34 Total TD
Player A (last 3 years): 3,338 Rushing, 28 TD, 4.3 YPA, 4,383 Total Scrimmage, 34 Total TD

Player B (last 3 years): 2,293 Rushing, 22 TD, 4.6 YPA, 2,665 Total Scrimmage, 23 Total TD
Player B (last 3 years): 4,504 Rushing, 43 TD, 5.0 YPA, 4,978 Total Scrimmage,c45 Total TD

Now with trajectory in mind.. tell me which player is better and how likely either HOF career is?

That's not to say that BOTH can't make the HOF, its certainly possible for both. But the point is to say that looking at a 6 year window can be super misleading when you are comparing a player who is getting worse, versus players who were getting better.

This does not look like a RB breaking down nor on a decline (I know what it looks like, and that is not it). 

Zeke still put up a top 10 RB season last year and I'm confident he's going to respond with over 1,500 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage next year. 

(I've bookmarked this thread and we'll re-visit after 2022's season once Zeke climbs the All-Time rankings some more (year #7).

Edited March 3, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[Tk3]

10 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

This does not look like a RB breaking down nor on a decline. 

Zeke still put up a top 10 RB season last year and I'm confident he'd going to respond with over 1,500 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage next year too. 

I've bookmarked this thread and we'll re-visit after 2022's season once Zeke climbs the All-Time rankings some more (year #7).

Zeke had 1,002 rushing in a 17 game season on 4.2 YPC. That IS a dropoff from early HOF type numbers. And that is coming off of a sub 1,000 yard 2020 with 4.0 YPC. His YPG are literally 40 YPG below his first 3 years (on significantly lower YPC - so its not just pure volume). If you don't think his trajectory the last 2 years has come down, then I don't know what we're doing here.

Now, if he rebounds and puts up 1,200-1,400 rushing, and 1,600+ scrimmage, with 10+ TDs and a 4.5+ YPC, then sure, I'll be all-in on him being back on a HoF pace.. it would essentially turn a "downward trend" into a "short term blip" on his career. 

But right now, especially with the emergence of a RB on his team who is actually outplaying him - I have no reason to believe his downward trend won't continue

Edited March 3, 2022 by Tk3

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

1 hour ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

This does not look like a RB breaking down nor on a decline (I know what it looks like, and that is not it). 

Zeke still put up a top 10 RB season last year and I'm confident he's going to respond with over 1,500 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage next year. 

(I've bookmarked this thread and we'll re-visit after 2022's season once Zeke climbs the All-Time rankings some more (year #7).

I know literally nothing will change your mind and you'll probably either ignore this post or just quote it with some nonsense comparison to a RB in the 90's or some stupid false equivalency, but if Zeke isn't declining, why are all of his efficiency stats tanking over the last 3 consecutive years?

Yards/game (2019 - now): 84.8 --> 65.3 --> 58.9

Yards/Attempt (2019 - now): 4.5 --> 4.0 --> 4.2

YAC/Attempt (2019 - now): 2.3 --> 2.1 --> 1.7

Broken Tackles (2019 - now): 24 --> 15 --> 9

Attempts/Broken Tackle (2019 - now): 12.5 --> 16.3 --> 26.3

Even if you just look at the stats it's easy to see a RB that is declining, especially when you consider that his production in 2021 in terms of bulk stats was entirely due to having a full extra game on the schedule. I don't even give a hoot about Zeke Elliott, but this delusion is just sad.

[squire12]

46 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

I know literally nothing will change your mind and you'll probably either ignore this post or just quote it with some nonsense comparison to a RB in the 90's or some stupid false equivalency, but if Zeke isn't declining, why are all of his efficiency stats tanking over the last 3 consecutive years?

Yards/game (2019 - now): 84.8 --> 65.3 --> 58.9

Yards/Attempt (2019 - now): 4.5 --> 4.0 --> 4.2

YAC/Attempt (2019 - now): 2.3 --> 2.1 --> 1.7

Broken Tackles (2019 - now): 24 --> 15 --> 9

Attempts/Broken Tackle (2019 - now): 12.5 --> 16.3 --> 26.3

Even if you just look at the stats it's easy to see a RB that is declining, especially when you consider that his production in 2021 in terms of bulk stats was entirely due to having a full extra game on the schedule. I don't even give a hoot about Zeke Elliott, but this delusion is just sad.

that is a trajectory that is going a different direction that what the OP is suggesting

[CAPJ]

2 hours ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

This does not look like a RB breaking down nor on a decline (I know what it looks like, and that is not it). 

Zeke still put up a top 10 RB season last year and I'm confident he's going to respond with over 1,500 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage next year. 

(I've bookmarked this thread and we'll re-visit after 2022's season once Zeke climbs the All-Time rankings some more (year #7).

if you are going off of a Top 10 RB season just based off stats, primarily which would be rushing, he is only top 10 because of the drop off in production in the overall position. 

Guys are not rushing for 1000 yards like they used to. 7 RBs rushed for 1000 yards last year in a 17 game season. Just two years ago, there were 16 RBs that ran for 1000 yards.

Zekes first half of his career, well on his way, last half, he is an slightly above average RB with no burst but great at blitz pickup. His trajectory is going down. If he has any shot at the HOF, he needs to perform more at the Zeke of the first 3 years of his career.