Would you consider these as HOF Trajectory #'s for an NFL RB (throughout his first 6 years)?

[Mox]

On 3/2/2022 at 2:02 AM, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

Ezekiel Elliott previous 3 years:

782 rushing attempts.

3,338 rushing yards. 

4.3 yards per carry. 

28 rushing TDs. 

153 receptions. 

1,045 receiving yards. 

6 TD receptions.

10 fumbles. 

• 935 touches for 4,383 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 34 Offensive TDs @ 4.7 yards per touch. 

Vs . 

Ezekiel Elliott first 3 years:

868 rushing attempts. 

4,048 rushing yards. 

4.7 yards per carry. 

28 rushing TDs. 

135 receptions. 

1,199 receiving yards. 

6 TD receptions. 

12 fumbles. 

• 1,003 touches for 5,247 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 34 Offensive TDs @ 5.2 yards per touch. 

At the end of the day he might've put up better statistics during his 1st 3 years but his last 3 years (in comparison to other NFL RBs) have been absolutely incredible and throughout his first 6 years combined? He's well on his way to top 10 rushing yards All Time + an induction into Pro Football's Hall of Fame. 

Here is your flaw-Are his first six years on a HoF pace? I'd say yes because his first four years were excellent. However, you're neglecting the fact that RB's tend to fall off fast and Zeke already looks like a shell of his former self. You compare his first three years to his second three years and acknowledge a dip. Those dips are:

10% less carries

17.5% less rushing yards

9% less ypc

Same TDs 

13% more catches

13% less receiving yards

Let's extrapolate these same dips to his next three years and assume he stays healthy. It's far more likely the dips will be more extreme than these. I'd probably bet my life on him not scoring 34 TDs the next three years but we'll throw it in anyway.

Next 3 years: 705 carries 2,754 yards 28 TDs, 173 catches 910 yards 6 TDs

Totals: 2,355 carries 10,140 yards 84 TDs, 461 catches 3,154 yards 18 TDs

This leaves him 32nd in carries (between Matt Forte & Clinton Portis), 31st in yards (between Ottis Anderson & Ricky WIlliams), and 17th in TDs (behind Marshawn Lynch). It also leaves him 45th in yards from scrimmage (between Ottis Anderson & Steve Largent) and 20th in total TDs (tying Don Hutson). 

Is that a HoF career? The only thing that makes you consider it is total TDs. So he'd have to keep playing, and by then he'd almost certainly either retire or be a backup so stat accumulation is going be much more difficult. That's with a favorable extrapolation. Now unlike Amari Cooper he has some accolades which will help but if he keeps fading I highly doubt he'll get in. He's basically where Clinton Portis was six years in except Portis missed half a season.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

6 hours ago, CAPJ said:

 

Edit: Posted in Wrong Thread. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

6 hours ago, Bullet Club said:

Here is your flaw-Are his first six years on a HoF pace? I'd say yes because his first four years were excellent. However, you're neglecting the fact that RB's tend to fall off fast and Zeke already looks like a shell of his former self. You compare his first three years to his second three years and acknowledge a dip. Those dips are:

10% less carries

17.5% less rushing yards

9% less ypc

Same TDs 

13% more catches

13% less receiving yards

Let's extrapolate these same dips to his next three years and assume he stays healthy. It's far more likely the dips will be more extreme than these. I'd probably bet my life on him not scoring 34 TDs the next three years but we'll throw it in anyway.

Next 3 years: 705 carries 2,754 yards 28 TDs, 173 catches 910 yards 6 TDs

Totals: 2,355 carries 10,140 yards 84 TDs, 461 catches 3,154 yards 18 TDs

This leaves him 32nd in carries (between Matt Forte & Clinton Portis), 31st in yards (between Ottis Anderson & Ricky WIlliams), and 17th in TDs (behind Marshawn Lynch). It also leaves him 45th in yards from scrimmage (between Ottis Anderson & Steve Largent) and 20th in total TDs (tying Don Hutson). 

Is that a HoF career? The only thing that makes you consider it is total TDs. So he'd have to keep playing, and by then he'd almost certainly either retire or be a backup so stat accumulation is going be much more difficult. That's with a favorable extrapolation. Now unlike Amari Cooper he has some accolades which will help but if he keeps fading I highly doubt he'll get in. He's basically where Clinton Portis was six years in except Portis missed half a season.

All I know is that... 

Ezekiel Elliott is already ranked 58th All-Time in rushing yards and will be passing the likes of Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes and Herschel Walker (+ 16 other RBs) with another 1,000 yard season next year (which he's already done 4/6x with career lows of only 983 and 979) which means that he'll already rank top 42 All-Time in rushing yards (after 2022s season). 

How can you not consider this as HOF Trajectory despite only being 26 years old in comparison to Derrick Henry 28 years old (same draft class)?

The dude is about to run right past two HOF RBs in Terrell Davis/Herschel Walker next year for crying out loud.

And all I know is this...

If he can last another 6 years which I'm confident he will due to only a a career 8 games missed (and only 2 games missed throughout the previous 3 years) he'll only need to average 892.15 rushing yards per season throughout the following 6 seasons of NFL play in order to pass Herschel Walker for 10th All-Time. 

Dude.

Ezeiel Elliott is going to rush himself right into the NFL's top 10 most rushing yards of All-Time and right into Canton Ohio's Hall of Fame. 

Edited March 3, 2022 by DefenseWinsChampionships

[Forge]

7 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

All I know is that... 

Ezekiel Elliott is already ranked 58th All-Time in rushing yards and will be passing the likes of Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes and Herschel Walker (+ 16 other RBs) with another 1,000 yard season next year (which he's already done 4/6x with career lows of only 983 and 979) which means that he'll already rank top 42 All-Time in rushing yards (after 2022s season). 

How can you not consider this as HOF Trajectory despite only being 26 years old in comparison to Derrick Henry 28 years old (same draft class)?

The dude is about to run right past two HOF RBs in Terrell Davis/Herschel Walker next year for crying out loud.

And all I know is that...

If he can last another 6 years which I'm confident he will due to only a a career 8 games missed (and only 2 games missed throughout the previous 3 years) he'll only need to average 892.15 rushing yards per season throughout the following 6 seasons of NFL play in order to pass Herschel Walker for 10th All-Time. 

Dude.

Ezeiel Elliott is going to rush himself right into the NFL's top 10 most rushing yards of All-Time and right into Canton Ohio's Hall of Fame. 

Certainly possible, but it absolutely gets treacherous around age 28 for running backs. Not impossible to get through that range and still produce at a quality level (Frank Gore comes to mind, Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor) but there's no guarantee that he's a guy that will make it through that range either and that is what people are betting against right now. 

If he does what you say and gets into the top 10 in rushing, I think that there's a really good shot that he gets in. But man, thinking that he rushes for 850+ yards each year for the next six even with the extra game is a pretty big leap of faith. You can be confident that he can do that, but that doesn't mean everyone else needs to be, particularly when his play already kind of shows him trending downward. There's a good chance that he is done in Dallas after this year, and once that happens, it's anyone's guess what happens with his career, especially if he has 3 straight years of uninspiring play at that point. 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

58 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

All I know is that... 

Ezekiel Elliott is already ranked 58th All-Time in rushing yards and will be passing the likes of Terrell Davis, Priest Holmes and Herschel Walker (+ 16 other RBs) with another 1,000 yard season next year (which he's already done 4/6x with career lows of only 983 and 979) which means that he'll already rank top 42 All-Time in rushing yards (after 2022s season). 

How can you not consider this as HOF Trajectory despite only being 26 years old in comparison to Derrick Henry 28 years old (same draft class)?

The dude is about to run right past two HOF RBs in Terrell Davis/Herschel Walker next year for crying out loud.

And all I know is this...

If he can last another 6 years which I'm confident he will due to only a a career 8 games missed (and only 2 games missed throughout the previous 3 years) he'll only need to average 892.15 rushing yards per season throughout the following 6 seasons of NFL play in order to pass Herschel Walker for 10th All-Time. 

Dude.

Ezeiel Elliott is going to rush himself right into the NFL's top 10 most rushing yards of All-Time and right into Canton Ohio's Hall of Fame. 

What do you see in this chart (I even added a trend line to make it SUPER obvious!)

[ET80]

1 hour ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

What do you see in this chart (I even added a trend line to make it SUPER obvious!)

He doesn’t believe in charts.

[CAPJ]

Just now, ET80 said:

He doesn’t believe in charts.

Or inflation or logic

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

19 minutes ago, ET80 said:

He doesn’t believe in charts.

It took me 3 minutes to make this, I can make other visuals that help him read numbers, too!

[squire12]

Just now, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

It took me 3 minutes to make this, I can make other visuals that help him read numbers, too!

Good luck.  I suggest crayons

[CAPJ]

11 minutes ago, squire12 said:

Good luck.  I suggest crayons

Pop up books?

[mse326]

4 hours ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

The dude is about to run right past two HOF RBs in Terrell Davis/Herschel Walker next year for crying out loud

1. Everyone know Davis is an anomaly has got in based on a few year peak and then injuries set in. A peak that EE doesn't match

2. Herschel Walker is not a HoFer, where did you even get that from?

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

1 hour ago, mse326 said:

1. Everyone know Davis is an anomaly has got in based on a few year peak and then injuries set in. A peak that EE doesn't match

2. Herschel Walker is not a HoFer, where did you even get that from?

My mistake error on my behalf. 

But nonetheless you do know that Ezekiel Elliott wasn't drafted until 2016 but yet has the most NFL rushing yards dating back to 2013, right?

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/who-has-the-most-rushing-yards-since-2013

And also top 5 since dating back to 2011 😱

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/who-has-the-most-rushing-yards-since-2013

This kid is going to shatter top 10 All-Time and a lot of you guys don't even know it yet. 

[Soko]

1 hour ago, mse326 said:

2. Herschel Walker is not a HoFer, where did you even get that from?

I suspect the same place where he ascertained that Tory Holt was a first ballot HOFer.

[DefenseWinsChampionships]

1 hour ago, mse326 said:

1. Everyone know Davis is an anomaly has got in based on a few year peak and then injuries set in. A peak that EE doesn't match. 

I agree that Ezeiel Elliot's top 3 years of peak doesn't = Terrell Davis's top 3 years of peak; however the race is closer than most realize. 

Terrell Davis 3 Year peak = (1996/1997/1998): 47 games.

~ 1,209 Touches for 6,110 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 53 Offensive TDs @ 5.05 Yards per Touch. 

Ezekiel Elliott 3 Year Peak = (2016, 2018 & 2019); 46 games.. 

~ 1,090 Touches for 5,772 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 39 Offensive TDs @ 5.29 yards per touch. 

The big time advantage is that Zeke's floor is much higher than TD's floor was (ever was). 

Because...

3 of Terrell Davis's worst 3 years = only 1,293 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage (combined) @ only 431 yards per season (and only 4 total Floor TDs).

vs. 

3 of Ezekiel Elliot's worst 3 years = 3,858 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage (combined) @ 1,286 yards per season (and 29 total floor TDs).

There's a real reason on why Ezekiel Elliott despite playing 1 less year than Terrell Davis already has 743 more All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage than Terrell Davis and also 3 more career Offensive TDs than Terrell Davis along with Ezekiel Elliott also having a better career yards per touch too (4.96  vs. 4.87).

Speaking of All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage I'm curious to see where Ezekiel Elliott currently ranks amongst All-Time NFL RBs in Yards from Scrimmage (because we already known he's already passed HOF Terrell TD Davis).

[Matts4313]

33 minutes ago, DefenseWinsChampionships said:

I agree that Ezeiel Elliot's top 3 years of peak doesn't = Terrell Davis's top 3 years of peak; however the race is closer than most realize. 

Terrell Davis 3 Year peak = (1996/1997/1998): 47 games.

~ 1,209 Touches for 6,110 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 53 Offensive TDs @ 5.05 Yards per Touch. 

Ezekiel Elliott 3 Year Peak = (2016, 2018 & 2019); 46 games.. 

~ 1,090 Touches for 5,772 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage and 39 Offensive TDs @ 5.29 yards per touch. 

The big time advantage is that Zeke's floor is much higher than TD's floor was (ever was). 

Because...

3 of Terrell Davis's worst 3 years = only 1,293 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage (combined) @ only 431 yards per season (and only 4 total Floor TDs).

vs. 

3 of Ezekiel Elliot's worst 3 years = 3,858 All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage (combined) @ 1,286 yards per season (and 29 total floor TDs).

There's a real reason on why Ezekiel Elliott despite playing 1 less year than Terrell Davis already has 743 more All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage than Terrell Davis and also 3 more career Offensive TDs than Terrell Davis along with Ezekiel Elliott also having a better career yards per touch too (4.96  vs. 4.87).

Speaking of All-Purpose Yards from Scrimmage I'm curious to see where Ezekiel Elliott currently ranks amongst All-Time NFL RBs in Yards from Scrimmage (because we already known he's already passed HOF Terrell TD Davis).

Now do playoff games